Identifying common patterns in diverse systems: effects of exurban development on birds of the Adirondack Park and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA.

We examined the impacts of exurban development on bird communities in Essex County, New York and Madison County, Montana by comparing differences in abundance of songbirds between subdivisions and control sites in both regions. We hypothesized that impacts to bird communities would be greater in the relatively homogeneous, closed canopy Adirondack forest of northern New York State than they would be in the more naturally heterogeneous grasslands interspersed with trees and shrubs of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We examined birds in five functional groups expected to be responsive to exurban development, and determined relative abundance within subdivisions and control sites across these two distinct regions. We found little support for our hypothesis. For birds in the area-sensitive, low nesting, and Neotropical migrant functional groups, relative abundance was lower in subdivisions in the Adirondacks and in Madison County, while relative abundance of edge specialists was greater in subdivisions in both regions. The direction and magnitude of change in the avian communities between subdivisions and controls was similar in both regions for all guilds except microhabitat specialists. These similarities across diverse ecosystems suggest that the ecological context of the encompassing region may be less important than other elements in shaping avian communities in exurban systems. This finding suggests that humans and their specific behaviors and activities in exurban areas may be underappreciated but potentially important drivers of change in these regions.

Relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining dynamic rates of boreal birds at the edge of their range.

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007-2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our analysis identifies patterns of declining occupancy for six of eight species, including some declines which appear to have become more pronounced since a prior analysis. Although non-climate drivers such as wetland area, connectivity, and human footprint continue to influence colonization and extinction rates, we find that for most species, occupancy patterns are best described by climate drivers. We modeled both average and annual temperature and precipitation characteristics and find stronger support for species' responses to average climate conditions, rather than interannual climate variability. In general, boreal birds appear most likely to colonize sites that have lower levels of precipitation and a high degree of connectivity, and they tend to persist in sites that are warmer in the breeding season and have low and less variable precipitation in the winter. It is likely that these responses reflect interactions between broader habitat conditions and temperature and precipitation variables. Indirect climate influences as mediated through altered species interactions may also be important in this context. Given climate change predictions for both temperature and precipitation, it is likely that habitat structural changes over the long term may alter these relationships in the future.

Temporal changes in avian community composition in lowland conifer habitats at the southern edge of the boreal zone in the Adirondack Park, NY.

Climate change represents one of the most significant threats to human and wildlife communities on the planet. Populations at range margins or transitions between biomes can be particularly instructive for observing changes in biological communities that may be driven by climate change. Avian communities in lowland boreal habitats in the Adirondack Park, located at the North American boreal-temperate ecotone, have been the focus of long-term monitoring efforts since 2007. By documenting long-term changes in community structure and composition, such datasets provide an opportunity to understand how boreal species are responding differently to climate change, and which habitat characteristics may be best able to retain boreal avian communities. We examined three specific questions in order to address how well current biological communities in Adirondack boreal wetland habitats are being maintained in a changing climate: (1) how do trends in occupancy vary across species, and what guilds or characteristics are associated with increasing or decreasing occupancy? (2) how is avian community composition changing differently across sites, and (3) what distinguishes sites which are retaining boreal birds to a higher degree than other sites? Our analysis revealed that (1) boreal species appear to exhibit the largest changes in occupancy among our study locations as compared to the larger avian community, (2) dynamics of community change are not uniform across sites and habitat structure may play an important role in driving observed changes, and (3) the particular characteristics of large open peatlands may allow them to serve as refugia for boreal species in the context of climate change.