Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate.

Ammonia (NH3) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH3, NOx, and N2O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO2e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

Design Insights for Industrial CO2 Capture, Transport, and Storage Systems.

We present methods and insights for the design of CO2 capture, transport, and storage systems for industrial facilities with a case study focus on Louisiana. Our analytical framework includes (1) evaluating the scale and concentration of capturable CO2 emissions at individual facilities for the purpose of estimating the cost of CO2 capture retrofits that utilize various energy supply sources to meet parasitic demands; (2) screening to identify potential CO2 storage sites and estimate their capacities, injectivities, and costs; and (3) designing cost-minimized trucking or pipeline infrastructure connecting CO2 capture plants with storage sites, considering existing land uses, demographics, and a variety of social and environmental justice factors. Estimated levelized costs of capture at Louisiana's 190 industrial facilities range from below $50/tCO2 to above $500/tCO2, depending on facility-specific features. We identified 98 potential storage sites with storage costs ranging from $8 to $17/tCO2. We find that in most situations, pipelines are the least-costly mode of CO2 transport. When industrial facilities in a region share pipelines, aggregate pipeline mileage and average transport costs are dramatically lower than without sharing. Shared pipeline networks designed to avoid disadvantaged communities require right-of-way areas compared to those for networks that transect such communities, but result in 25% higher average per-tonne transport cost.

Realizing ambitions: A framework for iteratively assessing and communicating national decarbonization progress.

A growing number of governments are pledging to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. Despite such ambitions, realized emissions reductions continue to fall alarmingly short of modeled energy transition pathways for achieving net-zero. This gap is largely a result of the difficulty of realistically modeling all the techno-economic and sociopolitical capabilities that are required to deliver actual emissions reductions. This limitation of models suggests the need for an energy-systems analytical framework that goes well beyond energy-system modeling in order to close the gap between ambition and reality. Toward that end, we propose the Emissions-Sustainability-Governance-Operation (ESGO) framework for structured assessment and transparent communication of national capabilities and realization. We illustrate the critical role of energy modeling in ESGO using recent net-zero modeling studies for the world's two largest emitters, China and the United States. This illustration leads to recommendations for improvements to energy-system modeling to enable more productive ESGO implementation.