Heterogeneity in hotspots: spatio-temporal patterns in neglected parasitic diseases.

Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis have been recognized by the WHO as 'Neglected Diseases'. Minimal attention has been paid to the spatial and temporal distribution of disease incidence patterns. Using disease notification data, we detected spatio-temporal clusters of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis across three time periods: (i) 1997-2000, (ii) 2001-2004, (iii) 2005-2008. There was substantial variation in the geographical location and timing of recurrent cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis clusters. Statistically significant (P < 0·05) giardiasis clusters tended to occur in predominantly urban areas with little apparent seasonal influence, while statistically significant cryptosporidiosis clusters were detected in spring, in areas with high livestock land use. The location and timing of cryptosporidiosis clusters suggest an influence of livestock production practices, while urban exposures and host behaviour are likely to influence giardiasis clusters. This approach provides a resource-efficient method for public health authorities to prioritize future research needs and areas for intervention.

Comparing the effectiveness of imagery focussed cognitive therapy to group psychoeducation for patients with bipolar disorder: A randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder is a severe, chronic mental disorder. Treatment options are limited, with pharmacological approaches continuing to dominate. However, relapse rates remain high. Several adjunctive psychosocial interventions, mostly psychoeducation (PE) and cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), have been trialled, but treatment innovation is still needed. In the past, brief group PE has proven as beneficial as longer individual CBT in reducing levels of depression and increasing self-management strategies. We compared the relative effectiveness of group PE to an imagery focussed cognitive behavioural therapy (ImCT). STUDY DESIGN: This was a randomised parallel group study with both daily and weekly measures. A total of 62 adult patients were randomly allocated to either ImCT or group PE. Daily, weekly and pre-and post-intervention measures were used to assess impact on (i) mood instability, (ii) overall levels of depression, anxiety and mania, and (iii) general functioning, hopelessness and imagery characteristics. A four-week baseline and 16-week follow-up period were included. RESULTS: Mood instability reduced in both conditions after intervention. Levels of mania, depression and anxiety also reduced in both conditions, but on the daily measures, depression and anxiety significantly more so in the ImCT condition. Compared with the PE condition, the ImCT condition additionally showed increased level of functioning, reduced hopelessness, and a decrease in intrusive, problematic imagery. LIMITATIONS: These findings need to be replicated in a larger trial. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that ImCT is a promising new avenue for management of bipolar disorder, an area in which treatment development is urgently needed.

The epidemiology of human salmonellosis in New Zealand, 1997-2008.

This study describes the epidemiology of human salmonellosis in New Zealand using notified, hospitalized and fatal cases over a 12-year period (1997-2008). The average annual incidence for notifications was 42·8/100 000 population and 3·6/100 000 population for hospitalizations. Incidence was about twice as high in summer as in winter. Rural areas had higher rates than urban areas (rate ratio 1·23, 95% confidence interval 1·22-1·24 for notifications) and a distinct spring peak. Incidence was highest in the 0-4 years age group (154·2 notifications/100 000 and 11·3 hospitalizations/100 000). Hospitalizations showed higher rates for Maori and Pacific Island populations compared to Europeans, and those living in more deprived areas, whereas notifications showed the reverse, implying that notifications are influenced by health-seeking behaviours. Salmonella Typhimurium was the dominant serotype followed by S. Enteritidis. For a developed country, salmonellosis rates in New Zealand have remained consistently high suggesting more work is needed to investigate, control and prevent this disease.

Attachment security and existential distress among patients with advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND: Felt security in close relationships may affect individual adaptation responses to existential threat in severe illness. We examined the contribution of attachment security to demoralization, a state of existential distress involving perceived pointlessness and meaninglessness in advanced cancer. METHOD: A mixed cross-sectional sample of 382 patients with advanced cancer (mean age 59, 60% female) was recruited from outpatient oncology clinics. Participants completed self-report measures of attachment security, demoralization, depression, and physical symptom burden. We used multiple linear regression to analyze the association between attachment security and demoralization, controlling for demographic factors and symptom burden and tested whether attachment security moderated the association of symptom burden with demoralization. Separate analyses compared the contribution of the dimensions of attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance. RESULTS: The prevalence of clinically relevant demoralization was 35%. Demoralization was associated with lower attachment security (ß = -0.54, 95%CI: -0.62 to 0.46). This effect was empirically stronger for attachment anxiety (ß = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.44 to 0.60) compared to attachment avoidance (ß = 0.36, 95%CI: 0.27 to 0.45). Attachment security also significantly moderated the association of physical symptom burden with demoralization, such that with less attachment security, there was a stronger association between symptom burden and demoralization. CONCLUSION: Attachment security may protect from demoralization in advanced cancer. Its relative lack, particularly on the dimension of attachment anxiety, may limit adaptive capacities to deal with illness burden and to sustain morale and purpose in life. An understanding of individual differences in attachment needs can inform existential interventions for severely ill individuals.

U-shaped relationship between depression and body mass index in the Korean adults.

BACKGROUND: Although a number of studies have examined the relationship between depression and obesity, it is still insufficient to establish the specific pattern of relationship between depression and body mass index (BMI) categories. Thus, this study was aimed to investigate the relationship between depression and BMI categories. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted for a cohort of 159,390 Korean based on Kangbuk Samsung Health Study (KSHS). Study participants were classified into 5 groups by Asian-specific cut-off of BMI (18.5, 23, 25 and 30kg/m2). The presence of depression was determined by Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scales (CES-D)≥16 and≥25. The adjusted odd ratios (ORs) for depression were evaluated by multiple logistic regression analysis, in which independent variable was 5 categories of BMI and dependent variable was depression. Subgroup analysis was conducted by gender and age. RESULTS: When normal group was set as a reference, the adjusted ORs for depression formed U-shaped pattern of relationship with BMI categories [underweight: 1.31 (1.14-1.50), overweight: 0.94 (0.85-1.04), obese group: 1.01 (0.91-1.12), severe obese group: 1.28 (1.05-1.54)]. This pattern of relationship was more prominent in female and young age group than male and elderly subgroup. BMI level with the lowest likelihood of depression was 18.5kg/m2 to 25kg/m2 in women and 23kg/m2 to 25kg/m2 in men. CONCLUSIONS: There was a U-shaped relationship between depression and BMI categories. This finding suggests that both underweight and severe obesity are associated with the increased risk for depression.

The NHS breast screening programme (pathology) EQA: experience in recent years relating to issues involved in individual performance appraisal.

BACKGROUND: The original role of the National Health Service breast screening programme (pathology) external quality assessment (EQA) scheme was educational; it aimed to raise standards, reinforce use of common terminology, and assess the consistency of pathology reporting of breast disease in the UK. AIMS/METHODS: To examine the performance (scores) of pathologists participating in the scheme in recent years. The scheme has evolved to help identify poor performers, reliant upon setting an acceptable cutpoint. Therefore, the effects of different cutpoint strategies were evaluated and implications discussed. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Pathologists who joined the scheme improved over time, particularly those who did less well initially. There was no obvious association between performance and the number of breast cancer cases reported each year. This is not unexpected because the EQA does not measure expertise, but was established to demonstrate a common level of performance (conformity to consensus) for routine cases, rather than the ability to diagnose unusual/difficult cases. A new method of establishing cutpoints using interquartile ranges is proposed. The findings also suggest that EQA can alter a pathologist's practice: those who leave the scheme (for whatever reason) have, on average, marginally lower scores. Consequently, with the cutpoint methodology currently used (which is common to several EQA schemes) there is the potential for the cutpoint to drift upwards. In future, individuals previously deemed competent could subsequently be erroneously labelled as poor performers. Due consideration should be given to this issue with future development of schemes.

Impact of a national external quality assessment scheme for breast pathology in the UK.

BACKGROUND: This article presents the results and observed effects of the UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) external quality assurance scheme in breast histopathology. AIMS/METHODS: The major objectives were to monitor and improve the consistency of diagnoses made by pathologists and the quality of prognostic information in pathology reports. The scheme is based on a twice yearly circulation of 12 cases to over 600 registered participants. The level of agreement was generally measured using kappa statistics. RESULTS: Four main situations were encountered with respect to diagnostic consistency, namely: (1) where consistency is naturally very high-this included diagnosing in situ and invasive carcinomas (and certain distinctive subtypes) and uncomplicated benign lesions; (2) where the level of consistency was low but could be improved by making guidelines more detailed and explicit-this included histological grading; (3) where consistency could be improved but only by changing the system of classification-this included classification of ductal carcinoma in situ; and (4) where no improvement in consistency could be achieved-this included diagnosing atypical hyperplasia and reporting vascular invasion. Size measurements were more consistent for invasive than in situ carcinomas. Even in cases where there is a high level of agreement on tumour size, a few widely outlying measurements were encountered, for which no explanation is readily forthcoming. CONCLUSIONS: These results broadly confirm the robustness of the systems of breast disease diagnosis and classification adopted by the NHSBSP, and also identify areas where improvement or new approaches are required.

Applications of time-series analysis to mood fluctuations in bipolar disorder to promote treatment innovation: a case series.

Treatment innovation for bipolar disorder has been hampered by a lack of techniques to capture a hallmark symptom: ongoing mood instability. Mood swings persist during remission from acute mood episodes and impair daily functioning. The last significant treatment advance remains Lithium (in the 1970s), which aids only the minority of patients. There is no accepted way to establish proof of concept for a new mood-stabilizing treatment. We suggest that combining insights from mood measurement with applied mathematics may provide a step change: repeated daily mood measurement (depression) over a short time frame (1 month) can create individual bipolar mood instability profiles. A time-series approach allows comparison of mood instability pre- and post-treatment. We test a new imagery-focused cognitive therapy treatment approach (MAPP; Mood Action Psychology Programme) targeting a driver of mood instability, and apply these measurement methods in a non-concurrent multiple baseline design case series of 14 patients with bipolar disorder. Weekly mood monitoring and treatment target data improved for the whole sample combined. Time-series analyses of daily mood data, sampled remotely (mobile phone/Internet) for 28 days pre- and post-treatment, demonstrated improvements in individuals' mood stability for 11 of 14 patients. Thus the findings offer preliminary support for a new imagery-focused treatment approach. They also indicate a step in treatment innovation without the requirement for trials in illness episodes or relapse prevention. Importantly, daily measurement offers a description of mood instability at the individual patient level in a clinically meaningful time frame. This costly, chronic and disabling mental illness demands innovation in both treatment approaches (whether pharmacological or psychological) and measurement tool: this work indicates that daily measurements can be used to detect improvement in individual mood stability for treatment innovation (MAPP).

El Niño and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission.

The objective of the study was to investigate the relationship between reported incidence of dengue fever and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) in 14 island nations of the South Pacific. Using a mixed ecological study design, we calculated correlations between annual averages of the southern oscillation index (SOI), local temperature and rainfall, and dengue fever. We also calculated temporal correlations between monthly reports of dengue fever cases on different islands. There were positive correlations between SOI and dengue in 10 countries. In five of these (including all of the larger islands) there were also positive correlations between SOI and estimates of local temperature and/or rainfall. There were temporal correlations between monthly reports of dengue cases within two groups of countries. Climate changes associated with ENSO may trigger an increase in dengue fever transmission in larger, more populated islands where the disease is endemic. There was also evidence of propagation of infection from larger islands to smaller neighbors. Unlike the initiation of epidemics, this transfer between islands appears to be independent of interannual climate variations, pointing to the importance of modulating factors in dengue transmission such as population density and travel. In the future, models of the impact of climate change must attempt to account for these factors.

Prevalence of adult asthma symptoms in relation to climate in New Zealand.

We conducted an ecological study linking prevalence of adult asthma symptoms with climate in the 93 New Zealand general electorates. For each electorate, the 12-month period prevalence of self-reported asthma symptoms was determined using a random sample of adults aged 20-44 on the 1991 New Zealand electoral roll. Long-term average climate was estimated using a national climate database and a geographic information system. Asthma prevalence was calculated within quartiles of the exposure variables. Independent effects of climate variables were assessed using linear regression models, with adjustment for confounding by climate, social deprivation, and geographic variables. There was a statistically significant association between asthma prevalence and mean temperature, with the lowest quartile of mean temperature having an approximately 2% lower asthma prevalence. After adjusting for confounding, there was a monotonic increase in asthma prevalence within quartiles of temperature. The results of this study are in agreement with other research suggesting a lower prevalence of asthma at low temperatures. Although on short (day-to-day) time scales, low temperatures may have a direct effect resulting in acute exacerbations of asthma symptoms, warmer average temperatures are associated with increased asthma prevalence. The reasons for this are unclear, although it is possible that on longer term (annual) time scales, higher temperatures are associated with higher levels of allergen exposure.

El Niño and arboviral disease prediction.

Recent El Niño events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to El Niño. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands.

Freshwater resources are a high-priority issue in the Pacific region. Water shortage is a serious problem in many small island states, and many depend heavily on rainwater as the source of their water. Lack of safe water supplies is an important factor in diarrheal illness. There have been no previous studies looking specifically at the relationship between climate variability and diarrhea in the Pacific region. We carried out two related studies to explore the potential relationship between climate variability and the incidence of diarrhea in the Pacific Islands. In the first study, we examined the average annual rates of diarrhea in adults, as well as temperature and water availability from 1986 to 1994 for 18 Pacific Island countries. There was a positive association between annual average temperature and the rate of diarrhea reports, and a negative association between water availability and diarrhea rates. In the second study, we examined diarrhea notifications in Fiji in relation to estimates of temperature and rainfall, using Poisson regression analysis of monthly data for 1978-1998. There were positive associations between diarrhea reports and temperature and between diarrhea reports and extremes of rainfall. These results are consistent with previous research and suggest that global climate change is likely to exacerbate diarrheal illness in many Pacific Island countries.

Giant cell myocarditis associated with lymphoma: an immunocytochemical study.

A case of giant cell myocarditis in a patient with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma is reported. To our knowledge, this is a previously unrecorded association and supports the hypothesis that the aetiology of giant cell myocarditis is related to a changed immune state. Immunohistochemical investigation of this case with a panel of monoclonal antibodies against a range of leucocyte and muscle antigens supports the view that the giant cells have a histiocytic rather than a myogenic origin.

The Value of Immunocytochemistry in Differentiating High-Grade: Lymphoma from Other Anaplastic Tumours: A study of anaplastic tumours from 1940 to 1960.

Immunocytochemistry is now established in many histology laboratories for diagnostic purposes and is routinely used in ascribing an origin to poorly differentiated tumours. This raises the question of whether traditional morphological skills are being abandoned in favour of new technology and, if so, whether that is justified. Twenty-three lymph node biopsies diagnosed as anaplastic carcinoma, reticulosarcoma or unclassifiable tumour between 1940 and 1960 (when immunocytochemistry was not available) were retrieved from the archives of the Radcliffe Infirmary. Paraffin sections were stained with a panel of monoclonal antibodies previously shown to be useful in the identification of tumours of uncertain origin. Of the 15 cases given a definite morphological diagnosis six (40%) were shown to be incorrect on the basis of immunostaining. In the eight remaining cases in which no diagnosis was recorded immunostaining provided a clear diagnosis in seven instances. These results are similar to those recorded on contemporary cases and demonstrate the value of immunocytochemical staining, as an adjunct to traditional morphological examination. In addition, it is clear that currently available monoclonal antibodies are suitable for use on routinely processed material more than 30 years old.

Asthma prevalence and deprivation: a small area analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between the prevalence of asthma symptoms in adults and deprivation in the area of residence. DESIGN: Two complementary surveys carried out between 1991-1993 yielding adult asthma symptom prevalence throughout New Zealand. Deprivation is measured by the NZDep91 index of deprivation for small areas. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 25,042 adults aged 20-50 years. MAIN RESULTS: After controlling for possible confounding by age, gender, and ethnicity, the 12 month period prevalence rates of asthma in this representative sample of New Zealand adults are significantly higher in the three most deprived area categories than in the least deprived (tenth) category. The prevalence ratio for the most deprived category compared with the least deprived category is 1.29 with 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.14, 1.47. There is a linear increase in asthma prevalence with increasing area deprivation (chi 2(1) = 32.20, p < 0.001). Independently, the rates are also 1.41 (95% CI 1.29, 1.54) times higher among Maori and 1.29 (95% CI 1.10, 1.52) times higher among the Pacific Island group than among the remaining, mostly European, respondents. CONCLUSIONS: The relation between asthma in adults and area deprivation is unlikely to be attributable to study biases or confounding. Further work should examine the possible role of modifiable deprivation factors in this relation.

Social deprivation and the public health risks of community drinking water supplies in New Zealand.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Quantitative evidence linking environmental exposures and social status at sub-national scales is surprisingly limited. This study investigated the public health risks associated with community water supplies in relation to social status in New Zealand. DESIGN: An ecological study using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to compare the grade of community water supplies with an index of social deprivation for small areas. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: The New Zealand population usually resident in meshblocks (census areas) with a community water supply (70% of the 1996 population of 3.6 million people). MAIN RESULTS: People living in deprived areas are exposed to greater public health risks from community water supplies. In urban areas, the odds of water supplies being high risk were 3.76 times greater for the most deprived decile compared with the least deprived decile (95% CI: 2.95 to 4.78). CONCLUSIONS: It is probable that deprived communities in New Zealand are experiencing a disproportionate burden of adverse health effects as a result of poor water quality.

Public health impacts of global climate change.

The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally.

Daily mortality in relation to weather and air pollution in Christchurch, New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between the daily number of deaths, weather and ambient air pollution. METHOD: An ecological study. We assembled daily data for the city of Christchurch, New Zealand (population 300,000) from June 1988 to December 1993. We used Poisson regression models, controlling for season using a parametric method. RESULTS: Above the third quartile (20.5 degrees C) of maximum temperature, an increase of 1 degree C was associated with a 1% (95% CI: 0.4 to 2.1%) increase in all-cause mortality and a 3% (0.1 to 6.0%) increase in respiratory mortality. An increase in PM10 of 10 micrograms/m3 was associated (after a lag of one day) with a 1% (0.5 to 2.2%) increase in all-cause mortality and a 4% (1.5 to 5.9%) increase in respiratory mortality. We found no evidence of interaction between the effects of temperature and particulate air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures and particulate air pollution are independently associated with increased daily mortality in Christchurch. The fact that these results are consistent with those of similar studies in other countries strengthens the argument that the associations are likely to be causal. IMPLICATIONS: These findings contribute to evidence of health consequences of fuel combustion, both in the short term (from local air pollution) and in the long term (from the global climatic effects of increased atmospheric CO2).