Enabling the evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines with correlates of protection.

In February 2023, a meeting about correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 was organized by the International Alliance for Biological Standardization, the European Plotkin Institute for Vaccinology, and Vaccinopolis. The meeting aimed at reviewing the evidence, drawing conclusions, and identifying knowledge gaps. Collection of evidence is not straightforward. Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection and are used for immunobridging studies within and between vaccine platforms for approval of new COVID-19 vaccines. In preparation for the next pandemic, it is vital that rapidly authorized initial vaccines are available to perform immunobridging studies very early. Additional components of the immune response likely contribute to protection against symptomatic infection. Current evidence is strongest for T lymphocytes and binding antibodies. Further studies are needed to consolidate this evidence and define their potential role in the evaluation of vaccines. For evaluation of mucosal vaccines, identifying CoPs against infection and transmission is key; further research is needed to identify and standardize methods suitable for clinical studies. CoPs for broadly protective beta-coronavirus vaccines remain a critical area of research. The knowledge, expertise, and capacity exist to conduct clinical studies using different designs in different populations to discover and validate CoPs, facilitating and accelerating evaluation of novel vaccines/vaccination platforms.

A prospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced seroconversion and disease incidence in German healthcare workers before and during the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.

We assessed the seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) before and during the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, in a prospective observational cohort study on healthcare workers (HCWs) in a large tertiary hospital in Mainz, Germany. Antibody status was assessed during six visits between September 2020 and February 2022. Self-reported symptoms were collected using a smartphone application; symptomatic HCWs were tested using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays for SARS-CoV-2. Rates of virologically confirmed and severe COVID-19 were estimated using the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) case definitions, respectively, and were contrasted to background community transmission and circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. A total of 3665 HCWs were enrolled (mean follow-up time: 18 months); 97 met the FDA definition of virologically confirmed COVID-19 (incidence rate (IR) 2.3/1000 person-months (PMs), one severe case). Most cases reported ≥2 symptoms, commonly, cough and anosmia or ageusia. Overall, 263 individuals seroconverted (IR 6.6/1000 PMs-2.9 times the estimated IR of COVID-19), indicating many cases were missed, either due to asymptomatic infections or to an atypical presentation of symptoms. A triphasic trend in anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and seroconversion was observed, with an initial increase following the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, a two-fold decline six months later, and finally a six-fold increase by the end of the study when Omicron was the dominant circulating variant. Despite the increase in infection rates at the end of the study due to the circulation of the Omicron variant, the infection and disease rates observed were lower than the published estimates in HCWs and rates in the general local population. Preferential vaccination of HCWs and the strict monitoring program for SARS-CoV-2 infection are the most likely reasons for the successful control of COVID-19 in this high-risk population.

Protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation conferred by primary-series vaccination with AZD1222 in non-boosted individuals: first vaccine effectiveness results of the European COVIDRIVE study and meta-regression analysis.

Background: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies with long-term follow-up are needed to understand durability of protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes conferred by primary-series vaccination in individuals not receiving boosters. COVIDRIVE is a European public-private partnership evaluating brand-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE). We report a prespecified interim analysis of primary-series AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) VE. Methods: Seven Study Contributors in Europe collected data on individuals aged ≥18 years who were hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (June 1st, 2021-September 5th, 2022) and eligible for COVID-19 vaccination prior to hospitalisation. In this test-negative case-control study, individuals were defined as test-positive cases or test-negative controls (SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR) and were either fully vaccinated (two AZD1222 doses, 4-12 weeks apart, completed ≥14 days prior to symptom onset; no booster doses) or unvaccinated (no COVID-19 vaccine prior to hospitalisation). The primary objective was to estimate AZD1222 VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation. A literature review and meta-regression were conducted to contextualise findings on durability of protection. Findings: 761 individuals were included during the 15-month analysis period. Overall AZD1222 VE estimate was 72.8% (95% CI, 53.4-84.1). VE was 93.8% (48.6-99.3) in participants who received second AZD1222 doses ≤8 weeks prior to hospitalisation, with spline-based VE estimates demonstrating protection (VE ≥ 50%) 30 weeks post-second dose. Meta-regression analysis (data from seven publications) showed consistent results, with ≥80% protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation through ∼43 weeks post-second dose, with some degree of waning. Interpretation: Primary-series AZD1222 vaccination confers protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation with enduring levels of VE through ≥6 months. Funding: AstraZeneca.