Digital twins based on bidirectional LSTM and GAN for modelling the COVID-19 pandemic.

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout the globe infecting over 150 million people and causing the death of over 3.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics of epidemiological models to gain a better understanding of how such diseases spread. While epidemiological models can be computationally expensive, recent advances in machine learning techniques have given rise to neural networks with the ability to learn and predict complex dynamics at reduced computational costs. Here we introduce two digital twins of a SEIRS model applied to an idealised town. The SEIRS model has been modified to take account of spatial variation and, where possible, the model parameters are based on official virus spreading data from the UK. We compare predictions from one digital twin based on a data-corrected Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network with predictions from another digital twin based on a predictive Generative Adversarial Network. The predictions given by these two frameworks are accurate when compared to the original SEIRS model data. Additionally, these frameworks are data-agnostic and could be applied to towns, idealised or real, in the UK or in other countries. Also, more compartments could be included in the SEIRS model, in order to study more realistic epidemiological behaviour.

Applying Convolutional Neural Networks to data on unstructured meshes with space-filling curves.

This paper presents the first classical Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that can be applied directly to data from unstructured finite element meshes or control volume grids. CNNs have been hugely influential in the areas of image classification and image compression, both of which typically deal with data on structured grids. Unstructured meshes are frequently used to solve partial differential equations and are particularly suitable for problems that require the mesh to conform to complex geometries or for problems that require variable mesh resolution. Central to our approach are space-filling curves, which traverse the nodes or cells of a mesh tracing out a path that is as short as possible (in terms of numbers of edges) and that visits each node or cell exactly once. The space-filling curves (SFCs) are used to find an ordering of the nodes or cells that can transform multi-dimensional solutions on unstructured meshes into a one-dimensional (1D) representation, to which 1D convolutional layers can then be applied. Although developed in two dimensions, the approach is applicable to higher dimensional problems. To demonstrate the approach, the network we choose is a convolutional autoencoder (CAE), although other types of CNN could be used. The approach is tested by applying CAEs to data sets that have been reordered with a space-filling curve. Sparse layers are used at the input and output of the autoencoder, and the use of multiple SFCs is explored. We compare the accuracy of the SFC-based CAE with that of a classical CAE applied to two idealised problems on structured meshes, and then apply the approach to solutions of flow past a cylinder obtained using the finite-element method and an unstructured mesh.

Data Assimilation Predictive GAN (DA-PredGAN) Applied to a Spatio-Temporal Compartmental Model in Epidemiology.

We propose a novel use of generative adversarial networks (GANs) (i) to make predictions in time (PredGAN) and (ii) to assimilate measurements (DA-PredGAN). In the latter case, we take advantage of the natural adjoint-like properties of generative models and the ability to simulate forwards and backwards in time. GANs have received much attention recently, after achieving excellent results for their generation of realistic-looking images. We wish to explore how this property translates to new applications in computational modelling and to exploit the adjoint-like properties for efficient data assimilation. We apply these methods to a compartmental model in epidemiology that is able to model space and time variations, and that mimics the spread of COVID-19 in an idealised town. To do this, the GAN is set within a reduced-order model, which uses a low-dimensional space for the spatial distribution of the simulation states. Then the GAN learns the evolution of the low-dimensional states over time. The results show that the proposed methods can accurately predict the evolution of the high-fidelity numerical simulation, and can efficiently assimilate observed data and determine the corresponding model parameters.

Enhancing high-fidelity nonlinear solver with reduced order model.

We propose the use of reduced order modeling (ROM) to reduce the computational cost and improve the convergence rate of nonlinear solvers of full order models (FOM) for solving partial differential equations. In this study, a novel ROM-assisted approach is developed to improve the computational efficiency of FOM nonlinear solvers by using ROM's prediction as an initial guess. We hypothesize that the nonlinear solver will take fewer steps to the converged solutions with an initial guess that is closer to the real solutions. To evaluate our approach, four physical problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity in flow and mechanics have been tested: Richards' equation of water flow in heterogeneous porous media, a contact problem in a hyperelastic material, two-phase flow in layered porous media, and fracture propagation in a homogeneous material. Overall, our approach maintains the FOM's accuracy while speeding up nonlinear solver by 18-73% (through suitable ROM-assisted FOMs). More importantly, the proximity of ROM's prediction to the solution space leads to the improved convergence of FOMs that would have otherwise diverged with default initial guesses. We demonstrate that the ROM's accuracy can impact the computational efficiency with more accurate ROM solutions, resulting in a better cost reduction. We also illustrate that this approach could be used in many FOM discretizations (e.g., finite volume, finite element, or a combination of those). Since our ROMs are data-driven and non-intrusive, the proposed procedure can easily lend itself to any nonlinear physics-based problem.