COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy.

OBJECTIVE: Mathematical models are vital tools to understand transmission dynamics and assess the impact of interventions to mitigate COVID-19. However, historically, their use in Africa has been limited. In this scoping review, we assess how mathematical models were used to study COVID-19 vaccination to potentially inform pandemic planning and response in Africa. METHODS: We searched six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, MathSciNet and Africa-Wide NiPAD, using keywords to identify articles focused on the use of mathematical modelling studies of COVID-19 vaccination in Africa that were published as of October 2022. We extracted the details on the country, author affiliation, characteristics of models, policy intent and heterogeneity factors. We assessed quality using 21-point scale criteria on model characteristics and content of the studies. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 462 articles, of which 32 were included based on the eligibility criteria. Nineteen (59%) studies had a first author affiliated with an African country. Of the 32 included studies, 30 (94%) were compartmental models. By country, most studies were about or included South Africa (n = 12, 37%), followed by Morocco (n = 6, 19%) and Ethiopia (n = 5, 16%). Most studies (n = 19, 59%) assessed the impact of increasing vaccination coverage on COVID-19 burden. Half (n = 16, 50%) had policy intent: prioritising or selecting interventions, pandemic planning and response, vaccine distribution and optimisation strategies and understanding transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Fourteen studies (44%) were of medium quality and eight (25%) were of high quality. CONCLUSIONS: While decision-makers could draw vital insights from the evidence generated from mathematical modelling to inform policy, we found that there was limited use of such models exploring vaccination impacts for COVID-19 in Africa. The disparity can be addressed by scaling up mathematical modelling training, increasing collaborative opportunities between modellers and policymakers, and increasing access to funding.

Increasing access to pediatric surgical care: Assessing district hospital readiness in rural Rwanda.

Introduction/Background: Safe and quality surgery is crucial for child health. In Rwanda, district hospitals serve as primary entry points for pediatric patients needing surgical care. This paper reports on the organizational readiness and facility capacity to provide pediatric surgery in three district hospitals in rural Rwanda. Methods: We administered the Children's Surgical Assessment Tool (CSAT), adapted for a Rwandan district hospital, to assess facility readiness across 5 domains (infrastructure, workforce, service delivery, financing, and training) at three Partners in Health supported district hospitals (Kirehe, Rwinkwavu, and Butaro District Hospitals). We used the Safe Surgery Organizational Readiness Tool (SSORT) to measure perceived individual and team readiness to implement surgical quality improvement interventions across 14 domains. Results: None of the facilities had a dedicated pediatric surgeon, and the most common barriers to pediatric surgery were lack of surgeon (68%), lack of physician anesthesiologists (19%), and inadequate infrastructure (17%). There were gaps in operating and recovery room infrastructure, and information management for pediatric outpatients and referrals. In SSORT interviews (n=47), the highest barriers to increasing pediatric surgery capacity were facility capacity (mean score=2.6 out of 5), psychological safety (median score=3.0 out of 5), and resistance to change (mean score=1.5 out of 5 with 5=no resistance). Conclusions: This study highlights challenges in providing safe and high-quality surgical care to pediatric patients in three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. It underscores the need for targeted interventions to address facility and organizational barriers prior to implementing interventions to expand pediatric surgical capacity.

Feasibility and effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood glucose among insulin-dependent patients with type 2 diabetes: open randomized control trial in three rural districts in Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has been on the rise. Effective control of blood glucose is key towards reducing the risk of diabetes complications. Findings mainly from high-income countries have demonstrated the effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood-glucose (SMBG) in controlling blood glucose levels. However, there are limited studies describing the implementation of SMBG in rural SSA. This study explores the feasibility and effectiveness of implementing SMBG among patients diagnosed with insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes in rural Rwanda. METHODS: Participants were randomized into intervention (n = 42) and control (n = 38) groups. The intervention group received a glucose-meter, blood test-strips, log-book, waste management box and training on SMBG in addition to usual care. The control group continued with their usual care consisting of, routine monthly medical consultation and health education. The primary outcomes were adherence to the implementation of SMBG (testing schedule and recording data in the log-book) and change in hemoglobin A1c. Descriptive statistics and a paired t-test were used to analyze the primary outcomes. RESULTS: In both the intervention and control arms, majority of the participants were female (59.5% vs 52.6%) and married (71.4% vs 73.7%). Most had at most a primary level education (83.3% vs. 89.4%) and were farmers (54.8% vs. 50.0%). Among those in the intervention group, 63.4% showed good adherence to implementing SMBG based on the number of tests recorded in the glucose meter. Only 20.3% demonstrated accurate recording of the glucose level tests in log-books. The mean difference of the HbA1C from baseline to six months post-intervention was significantly better among the intervention group -0.94% (95% CI -1.46, -0.41) compared to the control group 0.73% (95% CI -0.09, 1.54) p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that among patients with insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes residing in rural Rwanda, SMBG was feasible and demonstrated positive outcomes in improving blood glucose control. However, there is need for strategies to enhance accuracy in recording blood glucose test results in the log-book. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered retrospectively on the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, on 17th May 2019. The registration number is PACTR201905538846394.

Does community-based health insurance protect women from financial catastrophe after cesarean section? A prospective study from a rural hospital in Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of community-based health insurance in (CBHI) in Rwanda has reduced out of pocket (OOP) spending for the > 79% of citizens who enroll in it but the effect for surgical patients is not well described. For all but the poorest citizens who are completely subsidized, the OOP (out of pocket) payment at time of service is 10%. However, 55.5% of the population is below the international poverty line meaning that even this copay can have a significant impact on a family's financial health. The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of OOP payments for cesarean sections in the context of CBHI and determine if having it reduces catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). METHODS: This study is nested in a larger randomized controlled trial of women undergoing cesarean section at a district hospital in Rwanda. Eligible patients were surveyed at discharge to quantify household income and routine monthly expenditures and direct and indirect spending related to the hospitalization. This was used in conjunction with hospital billing records to calculate the rate of catastrophic expenditure by insurance group. RESULTS: About 94% of the 340 women met the World Bank definition of extreme poverty. Of the 330 (97.1%) with any type of health insurance, the majority (n = 310, 91.2%) have CBHI. The average OOP expenditure for a cesarean section and hospitalization was $9.36. The average cost adding transportation to the hospital was $19.29. 164 (48.2%) had to borrow money and 43 (12.7%) had to sell possessions. The hospital bill alone was a CHE for 5.3% of patients. However, when including transportation costs, 15.4% incurred a CHE and including lost wages, 22.6%. CONCLUSION: To ensure universal health coverage (UHC), essential surgical care must be affordable. Despite enrollment in universal health insurance, cesarean section still impoverishes households in rural Rwanda, the majority of whom already lie below the poverty line. Although CBHI protects against CHE from the cost of healthcare, when adding in the cost of transportation, lost wages and caregivers, cesarean section is still often a catastrophic financial event. Further innovation in financial risk protection is needed to provide equitable UHC.

Active and adaptive case finding to estimate therapeutic program coverage for severe acute malnutrition: a capture-recapture study.

BACKGROUND: Coverage is an important indicator to assess both the performance and effectiveness of public health programs. Recommended methods for coverage estimation for the treatment of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) can involve active and adaptive case finding (AACF), an informant-driven sampling procedure, for the identification of cases. However, as this procedure can yield a non-representative sample, exhaustive or near exhaustive case identification is needed for valid coverage estimation with AACF. Important uncertainty remains as to whether an adequate level of exhaustivity for valid coverage estimation can be ensured by AACF. METHODS: We assessed the sensitivity of AACF and a census method using a capture-recapture design in northwestern Nigeria. Program coverage was estimated for each case finding procedure. RESULTS: The sensitivity of AACF was 69.5% (95% CI: 59.8, 79.2) and 91.9% (95% CI: 85.1, 98.8) with census case finding. Program coverage was estimated to be 40.3% (95% CI 28.6, 52.0) using AACF, compared to 34.9% (95% CI 24.7, 45.2) using the census. Depending on the distribution of coverage among missed cases, AACF sensitivity of at least ≥70% was generally required for coverage estimation to remain within ±10% of the census estimate. CONCLUSION: Given the impact incomplete case finding and low sensitivity can have on coverage estimation in potentially non-representative samples, adequate attention and resources should be committed to ensure exhaustive or near exhaustive case finding. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT03140904. Registered on May 3, 2017.

Health Facility Cost of Cesarean Delivery at a Rural District Hospital in Rwanda Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing.

Objective To determine the health facility cost of cesarean section at a rural district hospital in Rwanda. Methods Using time-driven activity-based costing, this study calculated capacity cost rates (cost per minute) for personnel, infrastructure and hospital indirect costs, and estimated the costs of medical consumables and medicines based on purchase prices, all for the pre-, intra- and post-operative periods. We estimated copay (10% of total cost) for women with community-based health insurance and conducted sensitivity analysis to estimate total cost range. Results The total cost of a cesarean delivery was US$339 including US$118 (35%) for intra-operative costs and US$221 (65%) for pre- and post-operative costs. Costs per category included US$46 (14%) for personnel, US$37 (11%) for infrastructure, US$109 (32%) for medicines, US$122 (36%) for medical consumables, and US$25 (7%) for hospital indirect costs. The estimated copay for women with community-based health insurance was US$34 and the total cost ranged from US$320 to US$380. Duration of hospital stay was the main marginal cost variable increasing overall cost by US$27 (8%). Conclusions for Practice The cost of cesarean delivery and the cost drivers (medicines and medical consumables) in our setting were similar to previous estimates in sub-Saharan Africa but higher than earlier average estimate in Rwanda. The estimated copay is potentially catastrophic for poor rural women. Investigation on the impact of true out of pocket costs on women's health outcomes, and strategies for reducing duration of hospital stay while maintaining high quality care are recommended.

Community-Based Accompaniment and the Impact of Distance for HIV Patients Newly Initiated on Antiretroviral Therapy: Early Outcomes and Clinic Visit Adherence in Rural Rwanda.

Community-based accompaniment (CBA) has been associated with improved antiretroviral therapy (ART) patient outcomes in Rwanda. In contrast, distance has generally been associated with poor outcomes. However, impact of distance on outcomes under the CBA model is unknown. This retrospective cohort study included 537 adults initiated on ART in 2012 in two rural districts in Rwanda. The primary outcomes at 6 months after ART initiation included overall program status, missed a visit and missed three consecutive visits. The associations between cost surface distance (straight-line distance adjusted for surface features) and outcomes were assessed using logistic regression, controlling for potential confounders. Died/lost-to-follow-up and missed three consecutive visits were not associated with distance. Patients within 0-1 km cost surface distance were significantly more likely to miss a visit, potentially due to stigma of attending clinic within one's community. These results suggest that CBA may mediate the impact of long distances on outcomes.

Estimating program coverage in the treatment of severe acute malnutrition: a comparative analysis of the validity and operational feasibility of two methods.

BACKGROUND: Many health programs can assess coverage using standardized cluster survey methods, but estimating the coverage of nutrition programs presents a special challenge due to low disease prevalence. Used since 2012, the Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) employs both qualitative and quantitative methods to identify key barriers to access and estimate coverage of therapeutic feeding programs. While the tool has been increasingly used in programs, the validity of certain methodological elements has been the subject of debate. METHODS: We conducted a study comparing a SQUEAC conjugate Bayesian analysis to a two-stage cluster survey estimating the coverage of a therapeutic feeding program in Niger in 2016. RESULTS: We found that the coverage estimate from the conjugate Bayesian analysis was sensitive to the prior estimation. With the exception of prior estimates produced by an external support team, all prior estimates resulted in a conflict with the likelihood result, excluding interpretation of the final coverage estimate. Allowing for increased uncertainty around the prior estimate did not materially affect conclusions. CONCLUSION: SQUEAC is a demanding analytical method requiring both qualitative and quantitative data collection and synthesis to identify program barriers and estimate coverage. If the necessary technical capacity is not available to objectively specify an accurate prior for a conjugate Bayesian analysis, alternatives, such as a two-stage cluster survey or a larger likelihood survey, may be considered to ensure valid coverage estimation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03280082 . Retrospectively registered on September 12, 2017.

Same-day HIV testing with initiation of antiretroviral therapy versus standard care for persons living with HIV: A randomized unblinded trial.

BACKGROUND: Attrition during the period from HIV testing to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is high worldwide. We assessed whether same-day HIV testing and ART initiation improves retention and virologic suppression. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an unblinded, randomized trial of standard ART initiation versus same-day HIV testing and ART initiation among eligible adults ≥18 years old with World Health Organization Stage 1 or 2 disease and CD4 count ≤500 cells/mm3. The study was conducted among outpatients at the Haitian Group for the Study of Kaposi's Sarcoma and Opportunistic infections (GHESKIO) Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to standard ART initiation or same-day HIV testing and ART initiation. The standard group initiated ART 3 weeks after HIV testing, and the same-day group initiated ART on the day of testing. The primary study endpoint was retention in care 12 months after HIV testing with HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml. We assessed the impact of treatment arm with a modified intention-to-treat analysis, using multivariable logistic regression controlling for potential confounders. Between August 2013 and October 2015, 762 participants were enrolled; 59 participants transferred to other clinics during the study period, and were excluded as per protocol, leaving 356 in the standard and 347 in the same-day ART groups. In the standard ART group, 156 (44%) participants were retained in care with 12-month HIV-1 RNA <50 copies, and 184 (52%) had <1,000 copies/ml; 20 participants (6%) died. In the same-day ART group, 184 (53%) participants were retained with HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml, and 212 (61%) had <1,000 copies/ml; 10 (3%) participants died. The unadjusted risk ratio (RR) of being retained at 12 months with HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.38; p = 0.015) for the same-day ART group compared to the standard ART group, and the unadjusted RR for being retained with HIV-1 RNA <1,000 copies was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.31; p = 0.012). The main limitation of this study is that it was conducted at a single urban clinic, and the generalizability to other settings is uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: Same-day HIV testing and ART initiation is feasible and beneficial in this setting, as it improves retention in care with virologic suppression among patients with early clinical HIV disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01900080.

Exogenous factors matter when interpreting the results of an impact evaluation: a case study of rainfall and child health programme intervention in Rwanda.

OBJECTIVE: Public health interventions are often implemented at large scale, and their evaluation seems to be difficult because they are usually multiple and their pathways to effect are complex and subject to modification by contextual factors. We assessed whether controlling for rainfall-related variables altered estimates of the efficacy of a health programme in rural Rwanda and have a quantifiable effect on an intervention evaluation outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective quasi-experimental study using previously collected cross-sectional data from the 2005 and 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), 2010 DHS oversampled data, monthly rainfall data collected from meteorological stations over the same period, and modelled output of long-term rainfall averages, soil moisture, and rain water run-off. Difference-in-difference models were used. RESULTS: Rainfall factors confounded the PIH intervention impact evaluation. When we adjusted our estimates of programme effect by controlling for a variety of rainfall variables, several effectiveness estimates changed by 10% or more. The analyses that did not adjust for rainfall-related variables underestimated the intervention effect on the prevalence of ARI by 14.3%, fever by 52.4% and stunting by 10.2%. Conversely, the unadjusted analysis overestimated the intervention's effect on diarrhoea by 56.5% and wasting by 80%. CONCLUSION: Rainfall-related patterns have a quantifiable effect on programme evaluation results and highlighted the importance and complexity of controlling for contextual factors in quasi-experimental design evaluations.

Health, nutrition, and development of children born preterm and low birth weight in rural Rwanda: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: As care for preterm and low birth weight (LBW) infants improves in resource-limited settings, more infants are surviving the neonatal period. Preterm and (LBW) infants are at high-risk of nutritional and medical comorbidities, yet little is known about their developmental outcomes in low-income countries. This study evaluated the health, nutritional, and developmental status of preterm/LBW children at ages 1-3 years in Rwanda. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of preterm/LBW infants discharged between October 2011 and October 2013 from a hospital neonatal unit in rural Rwanda. Gestational age and birth weight were gathered from hospital records to classify small for gestational age (SGA) at birth and prematurity. Children were located in the community for household assessments in November-December 2014. Caregivers reported demographics, health status, and child development using locally-adapted Ages and Stages Questionnaires (ASQ-3). Anthropometrics were measured. Bivariate associations with continuous ASQ-3 scores were conducted using Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Kruskal Wallis tests. RESULTS: Of 158 eligible preterm/LBW children discharged from the neonatal unit, 86 (54.4%) were alive and located for follow-up. Median birth weight was 1650 grams, median gestational age was 33 weeks, and 50.5% were SGA at birth. At the time of household interviews, median age was 22.5 months, 46.5% of children had feeding difficulties and 39.5% reported signs of anemia. 78.3% of children were stunted and 8.8% wasted. 67.4% had abnormal developmental screening. Feeding difficulties (p = 0.008), anemia symptoms (p = 0.040), microcephaly (p = 0.004), stunting (p = 0.034), SGA (p = 0.023), very LBW (p = 0.043), lower caregiver education (p = 0.001), and more children in the household (p = 0.016) were associated with lower ASQ-3 scores. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of health, growth, and developmental abnormalities were seen in preterm/LBW children at age 1-3 years. As we achieve necessary gains in newborn survival in resource-limited settings, follow-up and early intervention services are critical for ensuring high-risk children reach their developmental potential.

Research capacity building integrated into PHIT projects: leveraging research and research funding to build national capacity.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate research capacity impedes the development of evidence-based health programming in sub-Saharan Africa. However, funding for research capacity building (RCB) is often insufficient and restricted, limiting institutions' ability to address current RCB needs. The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation's African Health Initiative (AHI) funded Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) partnership projects in five African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia) to implement health systems strengthening initiatives inclusive of RCB. METHODS: Using Cooke's framework for RCB, RCB activity leaders from each country reported on RCB priorities, activities, program metrics, ongoing challenges and solutions. These were synthesized by the authorship team, identifying common challenges and lessons learned. RESULTS: For most countries, each of the RCB domains from Cooke's framework was a high priority. In about half of the countries, domain specific activities happened prior to PHIT. During PHIT, specific RCB activities varied across countries. However, all five countries used AHI funding to improve research administrative support and infrastructure, implement research trainings and support mentorship activities and research dissemination. While outcomes data were not systematically collected, countries reported holding 54 research trainings, forming 56 mentor-mentee relationships, training 201 individuals and awarding 22 PhD and Masters-level scholarships. Over the 5 years, 116 manuscripts were developed. Of the 59 manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals, 29 had national first authors and 18 had national senior authors. Trainees participated in 99 conferences and projects held 37 forums with policy makers to facilitate research translation into policy. CONCLUSION: All five PHIT projects strongly reported an increase in RCB activities and commended the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation for prioritizing RCB, funding RCB at adequate levels and time frames and for allowing flexibility in funding so that each project could implement activities according to their trainees' needs. As a result, many common challenges for RCB, such as adequate resources and local and international institutional support, were not identified as major challenges for these projects. Overall recommendations are for funders to provide adequate and flexible funding for RCB activities and for institutions to offer a spectrum of RCB activities to enable continued growth, provide adequate mentorship for trainees and systematically monitor RCB activities.

Fertility and HIV following universal access to ART in Rwanda: a cross-sectional analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection is linked to decreased fertility and fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa due to biological and social factors. We investigate the relationship between HIV infection and fertility or fertility desires in the context of universal access to antiretroviral therapy introduced in 2004 in Rwanda. METHODS: We used data from 3532 and 4527 women aged 20-49 from the 2005 and 2010 Rwandan Demographic and Health Surveys (RDHS), respectively. The RDHSs included blood-tests for HIV, as well as detailed interviews about fertility, demographic and behavioral outcomes. In both years, multiple logistic regression was used to assess the association between HIV and fertility outcomes within three age categories (20-29, 30-39 and 40-49 years), controlling for confounders and compensating for the complex survey design. RESULTS: In 2010, we did not find a difference in the odds of pregnancy in the last 5 years between HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative women after controlling for potential biological and social confounders. Controlling for the same confounders, we found that HIV-seropositive women under age 40 were less likely to desire more children compared to HIV-seronegative women (20-29 years adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.58; 30-39 years AOR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.43), but no difference was found among women aged 40 or older. No associations between HIV and fertility or fertility desire were found in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest no difference in births or current pregnancy among HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative women. That in 2010 HIV-seropositive women in their earlier childbearing years desired fewer children than HIV-seronegative women could suggest more women with HIV survived; and stigma, fear of transmitting HIV, or realism about living with HIV and prematurely dying from HIV may affect their desire to have children. These findings emphasize the importance of delivering appropriate information about pregnancy and childbearing to HIV-infected women, enabling women living with HIV to make informed decisions about their reproductive life.

Emergency general surgery in Rwandan district hospitals: a cross-sectional study of spectrum, management, and patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Management of emergency general surgical conditions remains a challenge in rural sub-Saharan Africa due to issues such as insufficient human capacity and infrastructure. This study describes the burden of emergency general surgical conditions and the ability to provide care for these conditions at three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study included all patients presenting to Butaro, Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals between January 1st 2015 and December 31st 2015 with emergency general surgical conditions, defined as non-traumatic, non-obstetric acute care surgical conditions. We describe patient demographics, clinical characteristics, management and outcomes. RESULTS: In 2015, 356 patients presented with emergency general surgical conditions. The majority were male (57.2%) and adults aged 15-60 years (54.5%). The most common diagnostic group was soft tissue infections (71.6%), followed by acute abdominal conditions (14.3%). The median length of symptoms prior to diagnosis differed significantly by diagnosis type (p < 0.001), with the shortest being urological emergencies at 1.5 days (interquartile range (IQR):1, 6) and the longest being complicated hernia at 17.5 days (IQR: 1, 208). Of all patients, 54% were operated on at the district hospital, either by a general surgeon or general practitioner. Patients were more likely to receive surgery if they presented to a hospital with a general surgeon compared to a hospital with only general practitioners (75% vs 43%, p < 0.001). In addition, the general surgeon was more likely to treat patients with complex diagnoses such as acute abdominal conditions (33.3% vs 4.1%, p < 0.001) compared to general practitioners. For patients who received surgery, 73.3% had no postoperative complications and 3.2% died. CONCLUSION: While acute abdominal conditions are often considered the most common emergency general surgical condition in sub-Saharan Africa, soft tissue infections were the most common in our setting. This could represent a true difference in epidemiology in rural settings compared to referral facilities in urban settings. Patients were more likely to receive an operation in a hospital with a general surgeon as opposed to a general practitioner. This provides evidence to support increasing the surgical workforce in district hospitals in order to increase surgical availability for patients.

Validation of a community-based survey assessing non-obstetric surgical conditions in Burera District, Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: Community-based surveillance methods to monitor epidemiological progress in surgery have not yet been employed for surgical capacity building. The aim of this study was to create and assess the validity of a questionnaire that collected data for untreated surgically correctable diseases throughout Burera District, northern Rwanda, to accurately plan for surgical services. METHODS: A structured interview to assess for the presence or absence of ten index surgically treatable conditions (breast mass, cleft lip/palate, club foot, hernia or hydrocele [adult and paediatric]), hydrocephalus, hypospadias, injuries or wounds, neck mass, undescended testes, and vaginal fistula) was created. The interview was built based on previously validated questionnaires, forward and back translated into the local language and underwent focus group augmentation and pilot testing. In March and May, 2012, data collectors conducted the structured interviews with a household representative in 30 villages throughout Burera District, selected using a two-stage cluster sampling design. Rwandan physicians revisited the surveyed households to perform physical examinations on all household members, used as the gold standard to validate the structured interview. Ethical approval was obtained from Boston Children's Hospital (Boston, MA, USA) and the Rwandan National Ethics Committee (Kigali, Rwanda). Informed consent was obtained from all households. FINDINGS: 2990 individuals were surveyed, a 97% response rate. 2094 (70%) individuals were available for physical examination. The calculated overall sensitivity of the structured interview tool was 44·5% (95% CI 38·9-50·2) and the specificity was 97·7% (96·9-98·3%; appendix). The positive predictive value was 70% (95% CI 60·5-73·5), whereas the negative predictive value was 91·3% (90·0-92·5). The conditions with the highest sensitivity and specificity, respectively, were hydrocephalus (100% and 100%), clubfoot (100% and 99·8%), injuries or wounds (54·7% and 98·9%), and hypospadias (50% and 100%). Injuries or wounds and hernias or hydroceles were the conditions most frequently identified on examination that were not reported during the interview (appendix). INTERPRETATION: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first attempt to validate a community-based surgical surveillance tool. The finding of low sensitivity limits the use of the tool, which will require further revision, and calls into question previously published unvalidated community surgical survey data. To improve validation of community-based surveys, community education efforts on common surgically treatable conditions are needed in conjunction with increased access to surgical care. Accurate community-based surveys are crucial to integrated health system planning that includes surgical care as a core component. FUNDING: The Harvard Sheldon Traveling Fellowship.

Epidemiology of untreated non-obstetric surgical disease in Burera District, Rwanda: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: In low-income and middle-income countries, surgical epidemiology is largely undefined at the population level, with operative logs and hospital records serving as a proxy. This study assesses the distribution of surgical conditions that contribute the largest burden of surgical disease in Burera District, in northern Rwanda. We hypothesise that our results would yield higher rates of surgical disease than current estimates (from 2006) for similar low-income countries, which are 295 per 100 000 people. METHODS: In March and May, 2012, we performed a cross-sectional study in Burera District, randomly sampling 30 villages with probability proportionate to size and randomly sampling 23 households within the selected villages. Six Rwandan surgical postgraduates and physicians conducted physical examinations on all eligible participants in sampled households. Participants were assessed for injuries or wounds, hernias, hydroceles, breast mass, neck mass, obstetric fistula, undescended testes, hypospadias, hydrocephalus, cleft lip or palate, and club foot. Ethical approval was obtained from Boston Children's Hospital (Boston, MA, USA) and the Rwandan National Ethics Committee (Kigali, Rwanda). Informed consent was obtained from all participants. FINDINGS: Of the 2165 examined individuals, the overall prevalence of any surgical condition was 12% (95% CI 9·2-14·9) or 12 009 per 100 000 people. Injuries or wounds accounted for 55% of the prevalence and hernias or hydroceles accounted for 40%, followed by neck mass (4·2%), undescended testes (1·9%), breast mass (1·2%), club foot (1%), hypospadias (0·6%), hydrocephalus (0·6%), cleft lip or palate (0%), and obstetric fistula (0%). When comparing study participant characteristics, no statistical difference in overall prevalence was noted when examining sex, wealth, education, and travel time to the nearest hospital. Total rates of surgically treatable disease yielded a statistically significant difference compared with current estimates (p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: Rates of surgically treatable disease are significantly higher than previous estimates in comparable low-income countries. The prevalence of surgically treatable disease is evenly distributed across demographic parameters. From these results, we conclude that strengthening the Rwandan health system's surgical capacity, particularly in rural areas, could have meaningful affect on the entire population. Further community-based surgical epidemiological studies are needed in low-income and middle-income countries to provide the best data available for health system planning. FUNDING: The Harvard Sheldon Traveling Fellowship.

Non-Obstetric Surgical Care at Three Rural District Hospitals in Rwanda: More Human Capacity and Surgical Equipment May Increase Operative Care.

BACKGROUND: Most mortality attributable to surgical emergencies occurs in low- and middle-income countries. District hospitals, which serve as the first-level surgical facility in rural sub-Saharan Africa, are often challenged with limited surgical capacity. This study describes the presentation, management, and outcomes of non-obstetric surgical patients at district hospitals in Rwanda. METHODS: This study included patients seeking non-obstetric surgical care at three district hospitals in rural Rwanda in 2013. Demographics, surgical conditions, patient care, and outcomes are described; operative and non-operative management were stratified by hospitals and differences assessed using Fisher's exact test. RESULTS: Of the 2660 patients who sought surgical care at the three hospitals, most were males (60.7 %). Many (42.6 %) were injured and 34.7 % of injuries were through road traffic crashes. Of presenting patients, 25.3 % had an operation, with patients presenting to Butaro District Hospital significantly more likely to receive surgery (57.0 %, p < 0.001). General practitioners performed nearly all operations at Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals (98.0 and 100.0 %, respectively), but surgeons performed 90.6 % of the operations at Butaro District Hospital. For outcomes, 39.5 % of all patients were discharged without an operation, 21.1 % received surgery and were discharged, and 21.1 % were referred to tertiary facilities for surgical care. CONCLUSION: Significantly more patients in Butaro, the only site with a surgeon on staff and stronger surgical infrastructure, received surgery. Availing more surgeons who can address the most common surgical needs and improving supplies and equipment may improve outcomes at other districts. Surgical task sharing is recommended as a temporary solution.

Assessing the twinning model in the Rwandan Human Resources for Health Program: goal setting, satisfaction and perceived skill transfer.

BACKGROUND: Because of the shortage of health professionals, particularly in specialty areas, Rwanda initiated the Human Resources for Health (HRH) Program. In this program, faculty from United States teaching institutions (USF) "twin" with Rwandan Faculty (RF) to transfer skills. This paper assesses the twinning model, exploring USF and RF goal setting, satisfaction and perceptions of the effectiveness of skill transfer within the twinning model. METHODS: All USF and RF in the HRH Program from August 2012-May 2014 were invited to participate. An 85-item questionnaire for USF and 71-item questionnaire for RF were administered via Survey Monkey in April and May 2014. Associations among primary outcomes were assessed and factors related with outcomes were modeled using logistic regression. RESULTS: Most RF and USF reported setting goals with their twin (89% and 71%, respectively). Half of RF (52%) reported effective skill transfer compared to 10% of USF. Only 38% of RF and 28% of USF reported being very satisfied with the twinning model. There was significant overlap in the three operational outcomes. For RF, the following factors were associated with outcomes: for effective skill transfer, being able to communicate in a common language and working at a nursing site outside of Kigali; and for satisfaction, 7+ years of professional experience and being part of a male RF-female USF twin pair. For USF, the following factors were associated with outcomes: for setting goals, prior teaching experience; and for satisfaction, experience in low resource settings for one month or less and feeling that HRH promotes a culture of respect. CONCLUSIONS: Twinning is the cornerstone of the HRH Program in Rwanda. These findings helped the HRH team identify key areas to improve the twinning experience including better recruitment and orientation of USF and RF, consideration of additional factors during the twinning process, provide language training support, facilitate joint twin activities and cross-cultural training and improve the site leadership buy-in and support of the program. These results can inform other programs using twinning to develop skills in the health workforce.

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. METHODS: We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. RESULTS: Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. CONCLUSION: Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.