α-FAtE: A new predictive score of response to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (AB) and lenvatinib can be alternatively used as first-line systemic treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no direct comparison of the two regimens has been performed in randomized clinical trials, making the identification of baseline differential predictors of response of major relevance to tailor the best therapeutic option to each patient. Baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics of real-world AB-treated HCC patients were analyzed in uni- and multivariate analyses to find potential prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Significant variables were incorporated in a composite score (α-FAtE) and it was tested for specificity and sensitivity in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and in multivariate analysis for OS. The score was applied in uni- and multivariate analyses for OS of a comparable lenvatinib-treated HCC population. Finally, comparison between treatments was performed in patients with low and high α-FAtE scores and predictivity estimated by interaction analysis. Time-to-progression (TTP) was a secondary endpoint. OS of AB-treated HCC patients was statistically longer in those with α-fetoprotein <400 ng/mL (HR 0.62, p = .0407), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) <125 IU/L (HR 0.52, p = .0189) and eosinophil count ≥70/µL (HR 0.46, p = .0013). The α-FAtE score was generated by the sum of single points attributed to each variable among the above reported. In ROC curve analysis, superior sensitivity and specificity were achieved by the score compared to individual variables (AUC 0.794, p < .02). Patients with high score had longer OS (HR 0.44, p = .0009) and TTP (HR 0.34, p < .0001) compared to low score if treated with AB, but not with lenvatinib. Overall, AB was superior to lenvatinib in high score patients (HR 0.55, p = .0043) and inferior in low score ones (HR 1.75, p = .0227). At interaction test, low α-FAtE score resulted as negative predictive factor of response to AB (p = .0004). In conclusion, α-FAtE is a novel prognostic and predictive score of response to first-line AB for HCC patients that, if validated in prospective studies, could drive therapeutic choice between lenvatinib and AB.

Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC. METHODS: We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Ramucirumab for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in the current real world: a Japanese single-arm study post-REACH-2 (The R-evolution study).

This study aimed to complement the results of the REACH-2 study by prospectively evaluating the safety and efficacy of ramucirumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a real-world setting. This was an open-label, nonrandomized, multicenter, prospective study conducted at 13 institutions in Japan (jRCTs031190236). The study included Child-Pugh Class A patients with advanced HCC who had received pretreatment with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) or lenvatinib. Ramucirumab was introduced as a second-line treatment after Atez/Bev or lenvatinib and as a third-line treatment after Atez/Bev and lenvatinib. Between May 2020 and July 2022, we enrolled 19 patients, including 17 who received ramucirumab. Additionally, seven patients received lenvatinib, another seven patients received Atez/Bev, and three patients received Atez/Bev followed by lenvatinib as prior treatment. The primary endpoint was a 6-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate, which was 14.3%. The median PFS and overall survival were 3.7 and 12.0 months, respectively. The most common grade ≥ 3 adverse events (AEs) were hypertension (23.5%), proteinuria (17.6%), and neutropenia (11.8%). The discontinuation rate due to AEs was 29.4%. Six patients progressed from Child-Pugh A to B after treatment with ramucirumab. Thirteen patients were eligible for post-ramucirumab treatment, including systemic therapy. Despite the limited number of patients, the efficacy of ramucirumab was comparable to that observed in the REACH-2 study when used after lenvatinib and Atez/Bev. However, the incidence of AEs was higher than that in the REACH-2 study.

Simple Scoring System for Esophagogastric Varices Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients without Liver Stiffness Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: For predicting esophagogastric varices (EGVs), the Virtual Baveno VII Consensus Workshop has proposed a combination of liver stiffness determination and platelet count measurement using a FibroScan®. However, FibroScan® is not available at all institutions. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to predict development of EGV using only general blood examination results. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1,090 hepatocellular carcinoma patients were enrolled, after excluding 956 with major portal vein tumor thrombus (Vp3/Vp4) or without upper gastrointestinal endoscopy examination results available. Those with EGV (≥ grade F2) or a history of treatment for the condition were defined as positive for significant EGV, and then clinical factors were retrospectively evaluated to determine indicators of occurrence. RESULTS: Logistic multivariate analysis showed platelet count (≤12 × 104/µL) (odds ratio [OR] 3.79, p < 0.001), mALBI grade 2a (OR 1.52, p = 0.036), and mALBI 2b or 3 (OR 3.46, p < 0.001) as significant predictive factors. Based on the OR values, platelet count (≤12 × 104/µL) and mALBI grade 2b/3 were each assigned 2 points and mALBI 2a was given 1 point, with the result termed recommendation for EGV screening (REGS) score. Significant EGV occurrence was noted in 2.9% (9/311) of the patients with a REGS score 0, 11.0% (13/118) with a score 1, 19.3% (53/274) with a score 2, 29.5% (39/132) with a score 3, and 38.0% (97/255) with a score 4 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that REGS score can provide useful predictive information for development of significant EGV without the need for special equipment such as a FibroScan®.

Factors Affecting an Increase in Spleen Volume and Association of Spleen Volume Variation with the Clinical Outcomes of Atezolizumab and Bevacizumab Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Gastrointestinal varices rupture is considered to be prone to occur during atezolizumab and bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) treatment. This study aimed to investigate predictive factors affecting the increase in spleen volume (SpV) and the association of SpV variation with the clinical outcomes of Atez/Bev. METHODS: A total of 164 HCC patients were included in this retrospective multicenter study. We measured SpV based on CT scans obtained before treatment and at evaluations. We used the inverse probability of treatment weight to address the imbalance between patient characteristics. RESULTS: The median pretreatment SpV was 184 (130-257) cm3 and the median SpV variation was 27 (9-60) cm3. An increase in the SpV was observed in 140 patients (85.4%). Age <74 years (p = 0.03), mALBI grade 2b or 3 (p = 0.03), and pretreatment SpV ≥184 cm3 (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased SpV. There were no significant differences in progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) between patients with SpV variation <25 cm3 and those with SpV variation ≥25 cm3 in the crude (p = 0.3 and 0.7) and IPTW-weighted cohorts (p = 0.08 and 0.8, respectively). Regarding pretreatment SpV, there were no significant differences in PFS or OS between patients with and without pretreatment spleen enlargement in the crude (both p = 0.3) and IPTW-weighted cohort (p = 0.6 and 0.3, respectively). CONCLUSION: Caution is warranted to detect the aggravation of portal hypertension when administering Atez/Bev to young patients or patients with an impaired liver function or pretreatment spleen enlargement. The impact of spleen modulation by Atez/Bev appears to be limited on clinical efficacy.

Comparison of prognostic impact of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab versus lenvatinib in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study goal was to compare the outcomes of patients with intermediate-stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC]-B) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev) or lenvatinib (LEN) as first-line systemic therapy. METHODS: A total of 358 patients with BCLC-B HCC treated with Atezo/Bev (n = 177) or LEN (n = 181) as first-line systemic therapy were included. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival (PFS) times in the Atezo/Bev and LEN groups were 10.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.8-12.6) and 7.3 months (95% CI, 6.3-8.5), respectively (p = .019). In the propensity score-matched cohort, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 151) and LEN (n = 151) groups were 10.2 months (95% CI, 7.0-12.3) and 6.9 months (95% CI, 5.9-8.1), respectively (p = .020). Restricted mean survival times of PFS were significantly higher in the Atezo/Bev group than in the LEN group at landmarks of 12 and 18 months (p = .031 and .012, respectively). In a subgroup analysis of patients with HCC beyond the up-to-seven criteria, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 134) and LEN (n = 117) groups were 10.5 months (95% CI, 7.0-11.8) and 6.3 months (95% CI, 5.5-7.3), respectively (p = .044). CONCLUSIONS: The use of Atezo/Bev as first-line systemic therapy in patients with BCLC-B HCC is expected to result in good PFS.

Impact of body mass index on the prognosis of unresectable HCC patients receiving first-line Lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight is a negative prognostic factor in the general population in the long term. However, the role of body mass index (BMI) in the short-mid term in advanced tumours is unclear. The present analysis investigates the role of BMI weight classes in a large sample of patients affected by HCC and receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line treatment. METHODS AND MATERIAL: The cohort included consecutive patients affected by BCLC-c and BCLC-B HCC patients from a multicenter international study group who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. Population was stratified according to the BMI in under-, over- and normal-weight according to the conventional thresholds. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive impact of BMI in patients affected by advanced or intermediate HCC. Survival curves were estimated using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier. The role of stratification factors was analysed with log-rank tests. RESULTS: 1292 consecutive patients with HCC were analysed. 466 (36%) patients were treated with lenvatinib and 826 (64%) patients were treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. In the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab arm, 510 (62%) patients were normal-weight, 52 (6%) underweight and 264 (32%) overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients, whereas no differences were found between normal-weight versus overweight. Multivariate analysis confirmed that underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients (HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = .0323). In the lenvatinib arm, 26 patients (5.6%) were categorized as underweight, 256 (54.9%) as normal-weight, and 184 (39.5%) as overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, no significant differences were found between normal-weight versus underweight and between normal-weight versus overweight, which was confirmed at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlighted a prognostic role of BMI in a cohort of patients with advanced HCC who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, while no prognostic role for low BMI was apparent in patients who received lenvatinib.

Brief intervention for chronic liver disease patients with alcohol use disorder in a hepatology outpatient unit: Effects and limitations.

AIM: It is not uncommon to encounter outpatients in the hepatology department with harmful alcohol habits. When treating such chronic liver disease (CLD) patients, an adequate intervention method for harm reduction of alcohol use, such as brief intervention (BI) or BI and nalmefene, should be considered. This study aimed to elucidate the clinical effectiveness of BI for CLD patients affected by harmful alcohol use. METHODS: From June 2021 to 2023, 123 Japanese CLD outpatients (hepatitis B virus : hepatitis C virus : alcoholic liver disease : others = 32:18:42:31) with an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score of ≥8 at the initial interview and a repeat interview with AUDIT 9 months later were enrolled. Clinical features related to patient behavior following the initial AUDIT interview were retrospectively evaluated, and compared between patients without and with BI treatment. RESULTS: For the non-BI and BI groups, baseline AUDIT score (median 10 [interquartile range (IQR) 9-13] vs. 12 [IQR 10-17], p = 0.016) and relative change in AUDIT score (median 0 [IQR -3 to 2] vs. -3 [IQR -7 to 0], p < 0.01) showed significant differences, whereas there was no significant difference between the groups for AUDIT score at the time of the second interview (p = 0.156). Following BI, significant improvements were observed for items 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, and 10 of AUDIT (each p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Patients with an alcohol use disorder as well as those with alcohol dependency who received BI showed a significant decline in AUDIT score, although the score of the follow-up AUDIT indicated continued alcohol use disorder. In addition to BI, medication with nalmefene should be considered, based on individual factors.

Kinetics of the hepatitis B core-related antigen and treatment responses in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with tenofovir alafenamide.

AIM: An association between hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) kinetics and hepatocarcinogenesis during nucleoside (t)id analog (NA) treatment has recently been reported. HBcrAg kinetics and factors associated with HBcrAg response during tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) administration remain unclear. In this multicenter retrospective study, we aimed to clarify the efficacy and safety of TAF in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B, focusing on the reduction in HBcrAg levels. METHODS: Patients were treated with TAF monotherapy for 96 weeks, and the kinetics of HBcrAg during treatment and the factors associated with HBcrAg response (defined as a change in HBcrAg of -1 log IU/mL from baseline) were evaluated. RESULTS: The study population comprised 241 patients, 36.9% of whom were HBeAg-positive. The median baseline HBcrAg level was 4.7 log IU/mL. The median change in HBcrAg from baseline was -1.1 log IU/mL at 96 weeks after treatment. The HBcrAg response rate at 96 weeks was 56.6% (43/76). Multivariate analysis revealed high alanine transaminase level as an independent baseline factor associated with HBcrAg response at 96 weeks of treatment (p = 4.53 × 10-6). No correlation was found between the HBcrAg and hepatitis B surface antigen kinetics in patients treated with TAF monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: In TAF monotherapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B, HBcrAg levels were significantly decreased and baseline alanine transaminase level is an important factor associated with HBcrAg reduction. As no correlation was found between HBcrAg and reduced hepatitis B surface antigen levels in this study, HBcrAg kinetics in addition to hepatitis B surface antigen may need to be monitored during TAF treatment.

Evaluation of the associations of interlukin-7 genetic variants with toxicity and efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors: A replication study of a Japanese population, based on the findings of a European genome-wide association study.

AIM: Recent genome-wide association studies of European populations have identified rs16906115, a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the interleukin-7 gene, as a predictor of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and the therapeutic efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors. We evaluated this single-nucleotide polymorphism in a Japanese population. METHODS: From January 2021, we stored host DNA from individuals who received various types of immune checkpoint inhibitors. From this population, we categorized 510 participants into cases (grade ≥2 irAEs) and controls (received ≥3 immune checkpoint inhibitor doses, follow-up ≥12 weeks, no irAEs), and divided 339 hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with atezolizumab/bevacizumab into responders and non-responders, evaluated using the modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors. We compared the minor allele frequencies of rs16906115 between cases and controls, and responders and non-responders. RESULTS: In the irAE prediction analysis of 234 cases and 276 controls, the minor allele frequency was 0.244 in the case group and 0.265 in the control group. This difference is not significant. In the analysis predicting the therapeutic efficacy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients, the responders had a significantly lower minor allele frequency of 0.220, compared with 0.300 for the non-responders (p = 0.022). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the minor allele homozygosity as a significant predictor of treatment response, with odds ratios of 0.292 (p = 0.015) in the univariate analysis and 0.315 (p = 0.023) in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In our Japanese cohort, no association was found between the rs16906115 minor allele and irAEs or treatment efficacy. The minor allele homozygosity may be associated with a negative therapeutic outcome. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry with the number UMIN000043798.

Comparative analysis of the therapeutic outcomes of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib for hepatocellular carcinoma patients aged 80 years and older: Multicenter study.

AIM: Elderly patients are believed to have a reduced immune capacity, which may make immunotherapy less effective. The aim of this study was to compare the therapeutic outcome of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) and lenvatinib (LEN) for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients aged 80 years and older. METHODS: From March 2018 to July 2022, 170 and 92 elderly patients who received LEN and Atez/Bev as first-line treatment, respectively, were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: The median ages of the Atez/Bev and LEN groups were 83.0 (8.01-86.0) and 83.0 (82.0-86.0) years (p = 0.3), respectively. Men accounted for approximately 70% of the patients in both groups. The objective response rate was 35.9% in the LEN group and 33.7% in the Atez/Bev group (p = 0.8), whereas the disease control rates in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups were 62.9% and 63.0%, respectively (p = 1.0). The median progression-free survival (PFS) in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups was 6.3 and 7.2 months, respectively, which were not significantly different (p = 0.2). The median overall survival (OS) was 17.9 months in the LEN group and 14.0 months in the Atez/Bev group. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.7). In multivariate analyses, the choice of treatment (LEN vs. Atez/Bev) showed no association with PFS or OS. The Atez/Bev group had a significantly higher rate of postprogression treatment (59.0% vs. 35.7%, p = 0.01) and a lower rate of discontinuation due to adverse events (69 [40.6%] vs. 19 [20.7%], p < 0.001) compared to the LEN group. CONCLUSIONS: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed comparable effectiveness to LEN in HCC patients aged 80 years and older. Given the results of postprogression treatment and discontinuation due to adverse events, Atez/Bev could serve as a first-line treatment even for elderly HCC patients.

mADRES predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with hepatitis C virus who achieved sustained virological response.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The study aims to develop a novel predictive model including the fibrosis (FIB)-3 index for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. METHODS: This study included 2529 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. The after DAA recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used to predict HCC development. We developed a modified ADRES (mADRES) score, in which the FIB-4 index was replaced by the FIB-3 index, and evaluated its usefulness in predicting HCC development compared with the ADRES score. RESULTS: In the training set (n = 1770), multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards modeling showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.01), FIB-3 index (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and α-fetoprotein (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES or mADRES score in multiple comparisons. Univariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared with the mADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.07 (95% CI, 1.02-4.19) for the mADRES score 1 group, 11.37 (95% CI, 5.80-22.27) for the mADRES score 2 group, and 21.95 (95% CI, 10.17-47.38) for the mADRES score 3 group. Similar results were obtained for mADRES score but not for ADRES score in the validation set (n = 759). CONCLUSION: The mADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Changes in clinical outcomes in Japanese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma due to hepatitis C virus following the development of direct-acting antiviral agents.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been accessible in Japan since 2014. The aim of this study is to compare how the prognosis of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC) changed before and after DAA development. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 1949 Japanese HCV-HCC patients from January 2000 to January 2023 categorized them into pre-DAA (before 2013, n = 1169) and post-DAA (after 2014, n = 780) groups. Changes in clinical features and prognosis were assessed. RESULTS: Despite no significant differences in BCLC stage between groups, the post-DAA group exhibited higher rates of sustained virological response (SVR) (45.6% vs. 9.8%), older age (73 vs 69 years), lower levels of AST (40 vs 56 IU/L), ALT (31 vs 46 IU/L), and AFP (11.7 vs 23.6 ng/mL), higher platelet count (13.5 vs 10.8 × 104/µL), better prothrombin time (88.0% vs 81.9%), and better ALBI score (-2.54 vs -2.36) (all P < 0.001). The post-DAA group also showed higher rates of curative treatments (74.1% vs 65.2%) and significantly improved recurrence-free survival (median 2.8 vs 2.1 years). Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, overall survival was superior in the post-DAA group (median 7.4 vs 5.6 years, P < 0.001). Subanalysis within the post-DAA group revealed significantly shorter overall survival for patients without SVR (median 4.8 years vs NA vs NA) compared to pre-SVR or post-SVR patients (both P < 0.001). No significant difference in OS was observed between the pre-SVR and post-SVR groups (P = 1.0). CONCLUSION: The development of DAA therapy has dramatically improved the prognosis of HCV-HCC patients.

Changes in characteristics of gastroenterology center inpatients in Japan because of rapidly aging society.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Rapidly aging societies have become a major issue worldwide including Japan. This study aimed to elucidate relative changes in the characteristics of inpatients in Japan related to this issue. METHODS: A total of 23 835 Japanese inpatients treated from 2010 to 2021 were enrolled (2010-2013, period I; 2014-2017, period II; 2018-2021, period III). Changes in clinical features were retrospectively analyzed based on ICD-10 diagnosis data. RESULTS: The percentage of patients aged over 75 years increased over time (period I, 38.0%; II, 39.5%, III, 41.4%). Emergency admissions comprised 27.5% of all in period I, which increased to 43.2% in period II and again to 44.5% in period III (P < 0.001). In period I, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, pancreatic-biliary disease, and other disease types were noted in 47.4%, 29.5%, 19.2%, and 3.9%, respectively, while those values were 44.0%, 18.0%, 33.9%, and 4.1%, respectively, in period III (P < 0.001). The frequency of liver disease decreased by approximately 0.6-fold from periods I to III, while that of biliary-pancreatic disease increased by approximately 1.8-fold during that time. Both percentage and actual numbers of patients with biliary-pancreatic disease increased during the examined periods. Analysis of changes in the proportion of organs affected by malignancy during periods I, II, and III showed a marked increase in cases of biliary-pancreatic malignancy (11.6%, 19.5%, 26.6%, respectively) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In association with the rapidly aging Japanese society, there has been an increasing frequency of biliary-pancreatic disease cases requiring hospitalization for treatment in the west Japan region of Shikoku.

Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common. METHODS: A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score. RESULTS: During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability. CONCLUSION: Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.

Development of a Scoring System for Predicting the Difficulty of Bile Duct Cannulation and Selecting the Appropriate Cannulation Method.

BACKGROUND: Selective biliary cannulation in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography can be challenging due to factors like papillary morphology. Various patterns indicate cannulation difficulty, but the combinations causing difficulty and the optimal cannulation method for each scenario are unclear. AIMS: This study aimed to identify cannulation difficulty patterns and develop a predictive scoring system for selecting the appropriate cannulation method. METHODS: We retrospectively compared 776 patients with naïve papilla, dividing them into conventional contrast cannulation (N = 510) and salvage technique (N = 266) groups. The salvage group included patients using pancreatic duct guidewire placement and/or wire-guided cannulation due to difficulties with the contrast method. Papillary morphology (Haraldsson's classification), periampullary diverticulum (PAD), and scope operability were analyzed using multiple regression to identify risk factors for cannulation difficulties. Factors were scored based on hazard ratios to access combinations causing difficulties. RESULTS: The salvage group had more older patients and higher frequencies of type 2 (small), type 3 (protruding or pendulous), type 4 (creased or ridged) papillae, PAD, and poor scope operability. Significant risk factors in the multivariate analysis included type 2 [odds ratio (OR) 6.88], type 3 (OR 7.74), type 4 (OR 4.06) papillae, PAD (OR 2.26), and poor scope operability (OR 4.03). Pattern recognition scores were significantly higher in the salvage group (1.31 vs. 3.43, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Type 2-4 papillae, PAD, and poor scope operability are significant risk factors for cannulation difficulty. Pattern recognition scores based on these factors can predict cannulation difficulty and aid in selecting between conventional and salvage methods.

Usefulness of aMAP Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence after Curative Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria.

INTRODUCTION: The aMAP score is a prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis patients. This study was conducted to elucidate the utility of this model for predicting initial recurrence of HCC in patients within the Milan criteria after undergoing curative treatment. METHODS: Patients with naïve HCC within the Milan criteria (n = 1,020) and treated from January 2000 to August 2022 were enrolled. The cohort was divided into two groups according to the aMAP score (high ≥60, low <60) and then compared for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Comparisons between the high and low groups showed that etiology (HBV:HCV:HBV+HCV:NBNC = 41:79:2:37 vs. 65:589:11:196, p < 0.001), AST (36 vs. 46 IU/L, p < 0.001), and multiple HCC occurrence (15% vs. 22%, p = 0.026) were significantly different. Additionally, median RFS (59.8 vs. 30.9 months; p < 0.001) and median OS (154.1 vs. 83.4 months, p < 0.01) were greater in the low group. As for patients with HCC due to chronic viral hepatitis, there was a significant difference in median RFS between the groups (59.8 vs. 30.6 months, p < 0.001), especially for HCV-positive patients (53.1 vs. 27.2 months, p = 0.002). In patients with HCC due to a nonviral cause, the difference in median RFS between the low (70.9 months) and high (32.0 months) groups was not significant. DISCUSSION: Findings of this retrospective study indicate a significant association of elevated aMAP with worse RFS in patients with HCC caused by chronic viral hepatitis, especially those with HCV. The aMAP score is considered useful to predict not only HCC-carcinogenesis risk but also risk of recurrence following curative treatment.

Nutritional Status Is Associated with Prognosis in Patients with Advanced Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: This study investigated the relationship between nutritional status, as determined by the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and outcomes in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/bev). METHODS: The study analyzed 485 HCC patients treated with Atez/bev. RESULTS: There were 342 patients with a low PNI (<47) and 143 patients with a high PNI (≥47). The median follow-up duration was 9.4 (6.0-14.3) months. Multivariate Cox hazards analysis showed that an α-fetoprotein level ≥100 ng/mL (hazard ratio (HR), 2.217; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.588-3.095; p < 0.001), and PNI ≥47 (HR, 0.333; 95% CI, 0.212-0.525; p < 0.001) were independently associated with overall survival. Multivariate analysis showed that an α-fetoprotein level ≥100 ng/mL (HR, 1.690; 95% CI, 1.316-2.170; p < 0.001) and PNI ≥47 (HR, 0.696; 95% CI, 0.528-0.918; p = 0.010) were independently associated with progression-free survival. Cumulative overall and progression-free survival rates differed significantly by PNI (p < 0.001 and p < 0.002, respectively). In a subgroup analysis using inverse probability weighting adjustment in patients with albumin-bilirubin grade 1 (n = 173), univariate Cox hazards analysis showed that a PNI ≥47 (HR, 0.502; 95% CI, 0.260-0.991; p = 0.047) was significantly associated with overall survival. Spline curve analysis revealed that a PNI of approximately 34-48 is an appropriate cutoff for predicting good overall and progression-free survival. CONCLUSION: The PNI, a biomarker of nutritional status, can predict prognosis in patients with HCC treated with Atez/bev, even those who are considered to have a good prognosis due to good liver function.

Comparison between Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab and Lenvatinib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Child-Pugh Class B in Real-World Clinical Settings.

INTRODUCTION: Systemic treatment is generally recommended for Child-Pugh (CP) A status patients with an unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). This study aimed to elucidate differences regarding therapeutic efficacy between lenvatinib (LEN), a multi-molecular target agent, and atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev), a newly developed immune-combined therapeutic regimen for CP-B patients affected by uHCC. METHODS: From April 2018 to July 2022, 128 patients with uHCC treated with Atez/Bev (n = 29) or LEN (n = 99) as the initial systemic treatment were enrolled (median age 71 years; males 97; CP score 7:8:9 = 94:28:6; median albumin-bilirubin score -1.71). Therapeutic response was evaluated using RECIST, version 1.1. Clinical features and prognosis were retrospectively examined. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the Atez/Bev and LEN groups in regard to best response (CR:PR:SD:PD = 0:5:12:7 vs. 5:22:25:20, p = 0.415), progression-free survival (PFS) (median 5.0 [95% CI: 2.4-7] vs. 5.5 [95% CI: 3.4-7.9] months, p = 0.332), or overall survival (OS) (5.8 [95% CI: 4.3-11] vs. 8.8 [95% CI: 6.1-12.9] months, p = 0.178). Adverse events (any grade/≥ grade 3) were observed in 72.4%/17.2% (n = 21/5) of patients treated with Atez/Bev and 78.8%/25.3% (n = 78/25) of those treated with LEN (p = 0.46/0.46). DISCUSSION: This retrospective study found no significant differences regarding PFS or OS between CP-B patients given Atez/Bev or LEN as initial systemic treatment for uHCC.

Lenvatinib as Second-Line Treatment after Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Clinical Results Show Importance of Hepatic Reserve Function.

INTRODUCTION: Lack of an established methodology for post-progression systemic treatment following atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) administration is an important clinical issue. The present study aimed to elucidate the potential of lenvatinib as a second-line treatment option after Atez/Bev failure. METHODS: From 2020 to 2022, 101 patients who received lenvatinib as second-line treatment were enrolled (median 72 years, males 77, Child-Pugh A 82, BCLC-A:B:C:D = 1:35:61:4), while 29 treated with another molecular targeting agent (MTA) during the period as second-line treatment were enrolled as controls. The therapeutic efficacy of lenvatinib given as second-line treatment was retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: Median progression-free survival/median overall survival for all patients was 4.4/15.7 months and for those with Child-Pugh A was 4.7 months/not-reached. When prognosis was compared with patients who received another MTA, there was no significant difference for PFS (3.5 months, p = 0.557) or OS (13.6 months, p = 0.992), and also no significant differences regarding clinical background factors. mRECIST findings showed that objective response and disease control rates in patients treated with lenvatinib were 23.9% and 70.4%, respectively (CR:PR:SD:PD = 3:14:33:21), while those shown by RECIST, ver. 1.1, were 15.4% and 66.2%, respectively (CR:PR:SD:PD = 1:10:36:24). Adverse events (any grade ≥10%) were appetite loss (26.7%) (grade 1:2:3 = 2:15:10), general fatigue (21.8%) (grade 1:2:3 = 3:13:6), protein in urine (16.8%) (grade 1:2:3 = 0:4:13), and hypertension (13.9%) (grade 1:2:3 = 1:8:5). CONCLUSION: Although lenvatinib treatment might not provide a pseudo-combination immunotherapy effect following Atez/Bev failure, lenvatinib when used as second-line treatment after Atez/Bev failure might be expected to be comparable as compared to its use as first-line treatment.