Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Forecasting semi-arid biome shifts in the Anthropocene.

Shrub encroachment, forest decline and wildfires have caused large-scale changes in semi-arid vegetation over the past 50 years. Climate is a primary determinant of plant growth in semi-arid ecosystems, yet it remains difficult to forecast large-scale vegetation shifts (i.e. biome shifts) in response to climate change. We highlight recent advances from four conceptual perspectives that are improving forecasts of semi-arid biome shifts. Moving from small to large scales, first, tree-level models that simulate the carbon costs of drought-induced plant hydraulic failure are improving predictions of delayed-mortality responses to drought. Second, tracer-informed water flow models are improving predictions of species coexistence as a function of climate. Third, new applications of ecohydrological models are beginning to simulate small-scale water movement processes at large scales. Fourth, remotely-sensed measurements of plant traits such as relative canopy moisture are providing early-warning signals that predict forest mortality more than a year in advance. We suggest that a community of researchers using modeling approaches (e.g. machine learning) that can integrate these perspectives will rapidly improve forecasts of semi-arid biome shifts. Better forecasts can be expected to help prevent catastrophic changes in vegetation states by identifying improved monitoring approaches and by prioritizing high-risk areas for management.

Aridity drives the response of soil total and particulate organic carbon to drought in temperate grasslands and shrublands.

The increasing prevalence of drought events in grasslands and shrublands worldwide potentially has impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC). We leveraged the International Drought Experiment to study how SOC, including particulate organic carbon (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) concentrations, responds to extreme drought treatments (1-in-100-year) for 1 to 5 years at 19 sites worldwide. In more mesic areas (aridity index > 0.65), SOC and POC concentrations decreased by 7.9% (±3.9) and 15.9% (±6.2) with drought, respectively, but there were no impacts on MAOC concentrations. However, drought had no impact on SOC, POC, or MAOC concentrations in drylands (aridity index < 0.65). The response of SOC to drought varied along an aridity gradient, concomitant with interannual precipitation variability and standing SOC concentration gradients. These findings highlight the differing response magnitudes of POC and MAOC concentrations to drought and the key regulating role of aridity.

Local adaptation to climate facilitates a global invasion.

Local adaptation may facilitate range expansion during invasions, but the mechanisms promoting destructive invasions remain unclear. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), native to Eurasia and Africa, has invaded globally, with particularly severe impacts in western North America. We sequenced 307 genotypes and conducted controlled experiments. We found that diverse lineages invaded North America, where long-distance gene flow is common. Ancestry and phenotypic clines in the native range predicted those in the invaded range, indicating pre-adapted genotypes colonized different regions. Common gardens showed directional selection on flowering time that reversed between warm and cold sites, potentially maintaining clines. In the Great Basin, genomic predictions of strong local adaptation identified sites where cheatgrass is most dominant. Preventing new introductions that may fuel adaptation is critical for managing ongoing invasions.

Woody plant growth increases with precipitation intensity in a cold semiarid system.

As the atmosphere warms, precipitation events become larger, but less frequent. Yet, there is fundamental disagreement about how increased precipitation intensity will affect vegetation. Walter's two-layer hypothesis and experiments testing it have demonstrated that precipitation intensity can increase woody plant growth. Observational studies have found the opposite pattern. Not only are the patterns contradictory, but inference is largely limited to grasslands and savannas. We tested the effects of increased precipitation intensity in a shrub-steppe ecosystem that receives >30% of its precipitation as snow. We used 11 (8 × 8 m) shelters to collect and redeposit rain and snow as larger, more intense events. Total annual precipitation was the same in all plots, but each plot received different precipitation event sizes ranging from 1 to 18 mm. Over three growing seasons, larger precipitation event sizes increased soil water availability, sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) stem radius, and canopy greenness, decreased new root growth in shallow soils, and had no effect on herbaceous plant cover. Thus, we found that increased precipitation intensity can increase soil water availability and woody plant growth in a cold semiarid system. Assuming that stem growth is positively correlated with shrub reproduction, establishment and spread, results suggest that increasing precipitation intensity may have contributed to the woody plant encroachment observed around the world in the past 50 yr. Further, continuing increases in precipitation intensity caused by atmospheric warming are likely to continue to contribute to shrub encroachment in the future.

The Effects of Social Distancing Policies on Non-SARS-CoV-2 Respiratory Pathogens.

BACKGROUND: The initial focus of the US public health response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was the implementation of numerous social distancing policies. While COVID-19 was the impetus for imposing these policies, it is not the only respiratory disease affected by their implementation. This study aimed to assess the impact of social distancing policies on non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) respiratory pathogens typically circulating across multiple US states. METHODS: Linear mixed-effect models were implemented to explore the effects of 5 social distancing policies on non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory pathogens across 9 states from January 1 through May 1, 2020. The observed 2020 pathogen detection rates were compared week by week with historical rates to determine when the detection rates were different. RESULTS: Model results indicate that several social distancing policies were associated with a reduction in total detection rate, by nearly 15%. Policies were associated with decreases in pathogen circulation of human rhinovirus/enterovirus and human metapneumovirus, as well as influenza A, which typically decrease after winter. Parainfluenza viruses failed to circulate at historical levels during the spring. The total detection rate in April 2020 was 35% less than the historical average. Many of the pathogens driving this difference fell below the historical detection rate ranges within 2 weeks of initial policy implementation. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis investigated the effect of multiple social distancing policies implemented to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory pathogens. These findings suggest that social distancing policies may be used as an impactful public health tool to reduce communicable respiratory illness.

Small differences in root distributions allow resource niche partitioning.

Deep roots have long been thought to allow trees to coexist with shallow-rooted grasses. However, data demonstrating how root distributions affect water uptake and niche partitioning are uncommon.We describe tree and grass root distributions using a depth-specific tracer experiment six times over two years in a subtropical savanna, Kruger National Park, South Africa. These point-in-time measurements were then used in a soil water flow model to simulate continuous water uptake by depth and plant growth form (trees and grasses) across two growing seasons. This allowed estimates of the total amount of water a root distribution could absorb as well as the amount of water a root distribution could absorb in excess of the other rooting distribution (i.e., unique hydrological niche).Most active tree and grass roots were in shallow soils: The mean depth of water uptake was 22 cm for trees and 17 cm for grasses. Slightly deeper rooting distributions provided trees with 5% more soil water than the grasses in a drier season, but 13% less water in a wetter season. Small differences also provided each rooting distribution (tree or grass) with unique hydrological niches of 4 to 13 mm water.The effect of rooting distributions has long been inferred. By quantifying the depth and timing of water uptake, we demonstrated how even small differences in rooting distributions can provide plants with resource niches that can contribute to species coexistence. Differences in total water uptake and unique hydrological niche sizes were small in this system, but they indicated that tradeoffs in rooting strategies can be expected to contribute to tree and grass coexistence because 1) competitive advantages change over time and 2) plant growth forms always have access to a soil resource pool that is not available to the other plant growth form.