Intensified hand-hygiene campaign including soap-and-water wash may prevent acute infections in office workers, as shown by a recognized-exposure -adjusted analysis of a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Variable exposure to causative agents of acute respiratory (RTI) or gastrointestinal tract infections (GTI) is a significant confounding factor in the analysis of the efficacy of interventions concerning these infections. We had an exceptional opportunity to reanalyze a previously published dataset from a trial assessing the effect of enhanced hand hygiene on the occurrence of RTI or GTI in adults, after adjustment for reported exposure and other covariates. METHODS: Twenty-one working units (designated clusters) each including at least 50 office employees, totaling 1,270 persons, were randomized into two intervention arms (either using water-and-soap or alcohol-rub in hand cleansing), or in the control arm. Self-reported data was collected through weekly emails and included own symptoms of RTI or GTI, and exposures to other persons with similar symptoms. Differences in the weekly occurrences of RTI and GTI symptoms between the arms were analyzed using multilevel binary regression model with log link with personal and cluster specific random effects, self-reported exposure to homologous disease, randomization triplet, and seasonality as covariates in the Bayesian framework. RESULTS: Over the 16 months duration of the trial, 297 persons in the soap and water arm, 238 persons in the alcohol-based hand rub arm, and 230 controls sent reports. The arms were similar in age distribution and gender ratios. A temporally-associated reported exposure strongly increased the risk of both types of infection in all trial arms. Persons in the soap-and-water arm reported a significantly - about 24% lower weekly prevalence of GTI than the controls whether they had observed an exposure or not during the preceding week, while for RTI, this intervention reduced the prevalence only during weeks without a reported exposure. Alcohol-rub did not affect the symptom prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that while frequent and careful hand washing with soap and water partially protected office-working adults from GTI, the effect on RTI was only marginal in this study. Potential reasons for this difference include partially different transmission routes and a difference in the virus load. In this trial, frequent standardized hand rubbing with ethanol-based disinfectant did not reduce the weekly prevalence of either type of infections. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00821509, 12 March 2009.

Recombination in the evolution of human rhinovirus genomes.

Human rhinoviruses (HRV) are highly prevalent human respiratory pathogens that belong to the genus Enterovirus. Although recombination within the coding region is frequent in other picornavirus groups, most evidence of recombination in HRV has been restricted to the 5' untranslated region. We analysed the occurrence of recombination within published complete genome sequences of members of all three HRV species and additionally compared sequences from HRV strains spanning 14 years. HRV-B and HRV-C showed very little evidence of recombination within the coding region. In contrast, HRV-A sequences appeared to have undergone a large number of recombination events, typically involving whole type groups. This suggests that HRV-A may have been subject to extensive recombination during the period of diversification into types. This study demonstrates the rare and sporadic nature of contemporary recombination of HRV strains and contrasts with evidence of extensive recombination within HRV-A and between members of different species during earlier stages in its evolutionary diversification.

Review and assessment of poliovirus immunity and transmission: synthesis of knowledge gaps and identification of research needs.

With the intensifying global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses, policymakers face complex decisions related to achieving eradication and managing posteradication risks. These decisions and the expanding use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) trigger renewed interest in poliovirus immunity, particularly the role of mucosal immunity in the transmission of polioviruses. Sustained high population immunity to poliovirus transmission represents a key prerequisite to eradication, but poliovirus immunity and transmission remain poorly understood despite decades of studies. In April 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened an international group of experts on poliovirus immunology and virology to review the literature relevant for modeling poliovirus transmission, develop a consensus about related uncertainties, and identify research needs. This article synthesizes the quantitative assessments and research needs identified during the process. Limitations in the evidence from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) challenge studies and other relevant data led to differences in expert assessments, indicating the need for additional data, particularly in several priority areas for research: (1) the ability of IPV-induced immunity to prevent or reduce excretion and affect transmission, (2) the impact of waning immunity on the probability and extent of poliovirus excretion, (3) the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness to others in different settings, and (4) the relative role of fecal-oral versus oropharyngeal transmission. This assessment of current knowledge supports the immediate conduct of additional studies to address the gaps.

Expert review on poliovirus immunity and transmission.

Successfully managing risks to achieve wild polioviruses (WPVs) eradication and address the complexities of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to stop all cases of paralytic poliomyelitis depends strongly on our collective understanding of poliovirus immunity and transmission. With increased shifting from OPV to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), numerous risk management choices motivate the need to understand the tradeoffs and uncertainties and to develop models to help inform decisions. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted a meeting of international experts in April 2010 to review the available literature relevant to poliovirus immunity and transmission. This expert review evaluates 66 OPV challenge studies and other evidence to support the development of quantitative models of poliovirus transmission and potential outbreaks. This review focuses on characterization of immunity as a function of exposure history in terms of susceptibility to excretion, duration of excretion, and concentration of excreted virus. We also discuss the evidence of waning of host immunity to poliovirus transmission, the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness, the importance of different transmission routes, and the differences in transmissibility between OPV and WPV. We discuss the limitations of the available evidence for use in polio risk models, and conclude that despite the relatively large number of studies on immunity, very limited data exist to directly support quantification of model inputs related to transmission. Given the limitations in the evidence, we identify the need for expert input to derive quantitative model inputs from the existing data.

Single treatment with ethanol hand rub is ineffective against human rhinovirus--hand washing with soap and water removes the virus efficiently.

Ethanol-containing hand rubs are used frequently as a substitute for hand washing with water and soap. However, not all viruses are inactivated by a short term rubbing with alcohol. The capacity of a single round of instructed and controlled hand cleaning with water and soap or ethanol-containing hand rub, respectively, was tested for removal of human rhinovirus administered onto the skin of healthy volunteers on the back of the hands. Hand washing with soap and water appeared to be much more efficient for removing rhinoviruses from skin than rubbing hands with an ethanol-containing disinfectant. After washing with soap and water the virus was detected in 3/9 (33.3%) test persons from the left hand and 1/9 (11.1%) cases from the right hand, whereas the virus was detected invariably by real-time RT-PCR from both hands after cleaning with alcohol hand rub (P-value <0.01). Both substances evaluated clinically were also tested in vitro for virucidal efficacy against Human rhinovirus2 (HRV2) using a standardized assay. Both tested substances were poor within the contact time used in the hand-cleaning test. In conclusion, thorough and conventional hand washing with water and soap can clean efficiently hands contaminated with the virus responsible for an extensive share of common cold episodes.

Analysis of genetic diversity and sites of recombination in human rhinovirus species C.

Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) are a highly prevalent and diverse group of respiratory viruses. Although HRV-A and HRV-B are traditionally detected by virus isolation, a series of unculturable HRV variants have recently been described and assigned as a new species (HRV-C) within the picornavirus Enterovirus genus. To investigate their genetic diversity and occurrence of recombination, we have performed comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of sequences from the 5' untranslated region (5' UTR), VP4/VP2, VP1, and 3Dpol regions amplified from 89 HRV-C-positive respiratory samples and available published sequences. Branching orders of VP4/VP2, VP1, and 3Dpol trees were identical, consistent with the absence of intraspecies recombination in the coding regions. However, numerous tree topology changes were apparent in the 5' UTR, where >60% of analyzed HRV-C variants showed recombination with species A sequences. Two recombination hot spots in stem-loop 5 and the polypyrimidine tract in the 5' UTR were mapped using the program GroupingScan. Available HRV-C sequences showed evidence for additional interspecies recombination with HRV-A in the 2A gene, with breakpoints mapping precisely to the boundaries of the C-terminal domain of the encoded proteinase. Pairwise distances between HRV-C variants in VP1 and VP4/VP2 regions fell into two separate distributions, resembling inter- and intraserotype distances of species A and B. These observations suggest that, without serological cross-neutralization data, HRV-C genetic groups may be equivalently classified into types using divergence thresholds derived from distance distributions. The extensive sequence data from multiple genome regions of HRV-C and analyses of recombination in the current study will assist future formulation of consensus criteria for HRV-C type assignment and identification.

Characterization of a putative ancestor of coxsackievirus B5.

Like other RNA viruses, coxsackievirus B5 (CVB5) exists as circulating heterogeneous populations of genetic variants. In this study, we present the reconstruction and characterization of a probable ancestral virion of CVB5. Phylogenetic analyses based on capsid protein-encoding regions (the VP1 gene of 41 clinical isolates and the entire P1 region of eight clinical isolates) of CVB5 revealed two major cocirculating lineages. Ancestral capsid sequences were inferred from sequences of these contemporary CVB5 isolates by using maximum likelihood methods. By using Bayesian phylodynamic analysis, the inferred VP1 ancestral sequence dated back to 1854 (1807 to 1898). In order to study the properties of the putative ancestral capsid, the entire ancestral P1 sequence was synthesized de novo and inserted into the replicative backbone of an infectious CVB5 cDNA clone. Characterization of the recombinant virus in cell culture showed that fully functional infectious virus particles were assembled and that these viruses displayed properties similar to those of modern isolates in terms of receptor preferences, plaque phenotypes, growth characteristics, and cell tropism. This is the first report describing the resurrection and characterization of a picornavirus with a putative ancestral capsid. Our approach, including a phylogenetics-based reconstruction of viral predecessors, could serve as a starting point for experimental studies of viral evolution and might also provide an alternative strategy for the development of vaccines.

Vitronectin receptors, alpha v integrins, are recognized by several non-RGD-containing echoviruses in a continuous laboratory cell line and also in primary human Langerhans' islets and endothelial cells.

Previously published data suggest that the RGD-recognizing integrin, alphavbeta3, known as the vitronectin receptor, acts as a cellular receptor for RGD-containing enteroviruses, coxsackievirus A9 (CAV-9) and echovirus 9 (E-9), in several continuous cell lines as well as in primary human Langerhans' islets. As this receptor is also capable of binding the ligands by a non-RGD-dependent mechanism, we investigated whether vitronectin receptors, alpha v integrins, might act as receptors for other echoviruses that do not have the RGD motif. Blocking experiments with polyclonal anti-alphavbeta3 antibody showed that both primary human islets and a continuous laboratory cell line of green monkey kidney origin (GMK) are protected similarly from the adverse effects of several non-RGD-containing echovirus (E-7, -11, -25, -30, -32) infections. In contrast, corresponding studies on primary human endothelial cells showed that the receptor works only for E-25, E-30, E-32 and CAV-9. The inhibitory effect of the antibody was not restricted to prototype strains of echoviruses, as GMK cells infected with several field isolates of the corresponding serotypes were also protected from virus-induced cytopathic effects. Co-localization of virus particles with the receptor molecules in both GMK and primary human endothelial cells was demonstrated by live-cell stainings and confocal microscopy. Remarkably, in spite of similar virus-receptor co-localization and a comparable protective effect of the alphavbeta3 antibody, the entry pathways of the studied virus strains seemed to be divergent.

Proposals for the classification of human rhinovirus species C into genotypically assigned types.

Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) are common respiratory pathogens associated with mild upper respiratory tract infections, but also increasingly recognized in the aetiology of severe lower respiratory tract disease. Wider use of molecular diagnostics has led to a recent reappraisal of HRV genetic diversity, including the discovery of HRV species C (HRV-C), which is refractory to traditional virus isolation procedures. Although it is heterogeneous genetically, there has to date been no attempt to classify HRV-C into types analogous to the multiple serotypes identified for HRV-A and -B and among human enteroviruses. Direct investigation of cross-neutralization properties of HRV-C is precluded by the lack of methods for in vitro culture, but sequences from the capsid genes (VP1 and partial VP4/VP2) show evidence for marked phylogenetic clustering, suggesting the possibility of a genetically based system comparable to that used for the assignment of new enterovirus types. We propose a threshold of 13% divergence for VP1 nucleotide sequences for type assignment, a level that classifies the current dataset of 86 HRV-C VP1 sequences into a total of 33 types. We recognize, however, that most HRV-C sequence data have been collected in the VP4/VP2 region (currently 701 sequences between positions 615 and 1043). We propose a subsidiary classification of variants showing > 10% divergence in VP4/VP2, but lacking VP1 sequences, to 28 provisionally assigned types (subject to confirmation once VP1 sequences are determined). These proposals will assist in future epidemiological and clinical studies of HRV-C conducted by different groups worldwide, and provide the foundation for future exploration of type-associated differences in clinical presentations and biological properties.

Amino acids of Coxsackie B5 virus are critical for infection of the murine insulinoma cell line, MIN-6.

It was shown recently that 15 successive passages of a laboratory strain of the Coxsackie B virus 5 in a mouse pancreas (CBV-5-MPP) resulted in apparent changes in the virus phenotype, which led to the capacity to induce a diabetes-like syndrome in mice. For further characterization of islet cell interactions with a passaged virus strain, a murine insulinoma cell line, MIN-6, was selected as an experimental model. The CBV-5-MPP virus strain was not able to replicate in MIN-6 cells in vitro but required adaptation over a few days for progeny production and the generation of cytopathic effects. In order to determine the genetic characteristics required for virus growth in MIN-6 cells, the whole genome of the MIN-6-adapted virus variant was sequenced, and critical amino acids were identified by comparing the sequence with that of a virus strain passaged repeatedly in the mouse pancreas. The results of site-directed mutagenesis demonstrated that only one residue, amino acid 94 of VP1, is a major determinant for virus adaptation to MIN-6 cells.

Novel species of human rhinoviruses in acute otitis media.

We have studied human rhinovirus (HRV) recovered from nasopharyngeal aspirates and middle ear fluids collected during acute otitis media with RT-PCR sequencing followed by phylogenetic analysis. In addition to a great diversity of traditional HRV types we found genetic relatives of the novel HRV species, suggested HRV-C, in both sample types. Our results indicate the presence of HRV-C in the middle ear for the first time.

The complete genome sequences for a novel enterovirus type, enterovirus 96, reflect multiple recombinations.

Enterovirus 96 (EV-96) is a recently described genotype in the species Human enterovirus C. So far, only partial genome sequences of this enterovirus type have been available. In this study, we report complete genome sequences for two EV-96 strains isolated from healthy children during enterovirus surveillance in Finland. Sequence analysis revealed substantial nucleotide divergence between EV-96 strains and suggested several recombination events between EV-96 and other HEV-C types.

Measles, mumps, and rubella in Finland: 25 years of a nationwide elimination programme.

A nationwide programme to eliminate indigenous measles, mumps, and rubella, mainly by vaccinating children twice, was launched in Finland in 1982. Strong scientific methods to examine the immunological, clinical, and epidemiological variables have accompanied the programme. Measles was eliminated in 1996, and mumps and rubella in 1997. Now, 25 years from the start of this programme, Finland is facing new challenges. Since elimination, eight, 32, and six cases of measles, mumps, and rubella, respectively, have been reported. Of those, seven cases were failures of mumps vaccinations and one case was a rubella vaccination failure. Although outbreaks have been averted, the risks are increasing because the unvaccinated population is growing, epidemics occur in nearby countries, breakthrough cases arise, and declining antibodies suggest waning immunity. The chances for natural boosters are now at a minimum, and individuals are increasingly protected solely by vaccination. To maintain the absence of these diseases, the adopted policy should continue, but the country should also be prepared for prompt supplementary vaccinations in the case of epidemic outbreaks.

Eight years of experience with molecular identification of human enteroviruses.

We have successfully typed 1,121 human enterovirus (HEV) isolates during the last 8 years by adapting partial VP1 sequencing to routine identification of HEV isolated from diverse clinical and environmental specimens. The isolates include 48 of the 59 traditional nonpoliovirus HEV serotypes and members of 8 newly discovered types, which would have remained untypeable by neutralization using the conventional cross-sectional pools of antisera.

Respiratory viruses in laryngeal croup of young children.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the viral cause of laryngeal croup by use of highly sensitive methods, and including recently recognized viruses in the analysis. STUDY DESIGN: One hundred forty-four consecutive children with hoarse voice and inspiratory stridor attending the emergency department were enrolled. Age- and season-matched children presenting with a wheezing illness served as control subjects (n = 76). Nasopharyngeal swabs were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction for rhinovirus and enterovirus, coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza A and B virus, human bocavirus, human metapneumovirus, adenovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae. RESULTS: Virus infection was documented in 80% of patients with croup and 71% of control subjects. Children with croup had significantly more positive test results for PIV 1 and 2 (31% vs 4% and 6% vs 0%, respectively) and significantly fewer positive test results for RSV (15% vs 28%) than wheezing children. Rhinoviruses and enteroviruses were present equally in both groups (21% vs 25%). There was no significant difference in the frequency of influenza A virus or human bocavirus. Few subjects with adenovirus or M. pneumoniae were detected. CONCLUSION: Acute laryngeal croup is most often associated with PIV, RSV, rhinovirus, and enterovirus. Rhinovirus and enterovirus appeared equally often in croup and in wheezing illness. During late fall, they were found in 39% and 40%, respectively, of the tested samples.

Rhinovirus/enterovirus RNA in tonsillar tissue of children with tonsillar disease.

BACKGROUND: Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) together with the closely related human enteroviruses (HEVs) cause most of the acute respiratory illnesses throughout the year. HRVs have been detected in most parts of the respiratory tract but not in pharyngeal tonsils. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to find out whether HRVs were detectable in tonsillar tissue and if their presence correlated to the tonsillar disease. STUDY DESIGN: Thirty-three tonsillar samples collected in February-March 2003 from children with no acute respiratory symptoms were studied with HRV in situ hybridization (HRV-ISH). Ten tonsillar samples were further examined in a separate laboratory by two different reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) methods designed for detection of HRV/HEV RNA. RESULTS: Twenty of the 33 samples (62%) were positive by HRV-ISH. Five positive and five negative HRV-ISH samples were investigated by two different PCR methods. HRV/HEV RNA was detected in 9 of the 10 specimens by a hanging drop-nested PCR. One HRV-ISH negative sample was positive by a conventional non-nested PCR. One of the samples studied by all three methods, from a patient with recurrent tonsillitis, had no detectable HRV/HEV RNA. Positive result in HRV-ISH did not correlate significantly with underlying tonsillar disease, history of respiratory infections or bronchial asthma. Altogether HRV/HEV RNA was detected in 75% of the tonsils with no correlation to patients' operation indication or history of respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: In February-March, HRV/HEV RNA was frequently found in tonsillar tissue in children irrespective of the tonsillar pathology. Whether detection of the RNA is a marker of chronic infection or is merely remnant of past infection is not known.

Serum antibody response to periodontal pathogens and herpes simplex virus in relation to classic risk factors of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence links chronic infections, especially burden of several infections, with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). We studied joint immune response against two major periodontal pathogens and herpes simplex virus (HSV) in relation to established risk factors of CVD. METHODS: Serum antibody levels to HSV, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Porphyromonas gingivalis were determined by ELISA. The study included 1107 subjects, 734 from Finland and 373 from Russia. RESULTS: Combined antibody response to periodontal pathogens was associated inversely (OR, 95% CI) with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol concentration (beta = 0.35; 0.20, 0.60; P < 0.001) and directly with HSV antibody quartiles: compared with the first quartile, ORs (95% CI) for quartiles 2-4 were 1.43 (0.88-2.32), 1.74 (1.07-2.82), and 1.89 (1.18-3.02), respectively (P for trend <0.001), after adjusting for age, gender, area, education, smoking, BMI, alcohol, triglycerides, and number of teeth. In linear regression analysis, the 3-pathogen antibody score (comprising antibody levels against periodontal pathogens and HSV) was inversely associated with HDL cholesterol concentration (beta = -0.067/1 mmol/l; -0.235, -0.018; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: HSV infection may promote infection by periodontal pathogens. Furthermore, the infectious burden comprising HSV and periodontitis may increase the risk for CVD by clearly decreasing HDL cholesterol concentrations.

Viral upper respiratory tract infections in young children with emphasis on acute otitis media.

Viral upper respiratory infection is the most common reason for seeking medical care for children. Recurrent viral respiratory infections and subsequent complications (e.g. acute otitis media (AOM)) are a burden for children, their families and society. Over the past decade, our knowledge on the significance of respiratory viruses has broadened remarkably. Viruses cause large variety of respiratory diseases and cause alone diseases, which previously have been assumed to be bacterial only (e.g. AOM and pneumonia). Methods for detection analysis of respiratory viruses are developing making both the diagnosis and epidemiological investigations of respiratory infections easier. Accurate diagnosis of respiratory infections and awareness of possible viral etiology could reduce the use of antibiotics. Etiologic studies of viral infections are becoming increasingly important, with the emergence of new antiviral drugs and vaccines.

Presence of viral and bacterial pathogens in the nasopharynx of otitis-prone children. A prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the present study was to examine and follow up the presence of respiratory viral and bacterial pathogens in the nasopharynx of otitis-prone children during the cold season and compare the findings with the child's respiratory symptoms. METHODS: We enrolled 121 otitis-prone children, aged 10 months to 4 years for a prospective study. The nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) were studied at the baseline and after 12 and 24 weeks for respiratory viruses and at the baseline and after 24 weeks for bacteria. Presence of picorna(rhino-entero-parecho)-, influenza-, adenoviruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae was detected by PCR. NPS specimens were cultured for Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Moraxella catarrhalis. Clinical data (the rate of respiratory symptom days, otitis media, tympanometry findings, day-care attendance and the number of siblings) were compared with microbiological data. RESULTS: Rhinovirus was found in 30% of the samples at the baseline, in 8% and in 19% of the samples after 12 and 24 weeks, respectively. Enterovirus was detected in 19% of the samples, in 21% and in 12% of samples after 12 and 24 weeks, respectively. Picornavirus positivity correlated with the respiratory symptoms but not with the number of otitis media or with abnormal tympanometry. Two samples were adeno- and three samples influenzavirus positive. Parechovirus and M. pneumoniae were negative in all samples. Rhinovirus positivity correlated with that of M. catarrhalis and S. pneumonia but not with H. influenzae. Microbiological positivity was not significantly associated with the type of day-care. CONCLUSIONS: Picornaviruses as well as bacteria were commonly found in the nasopharynx of otitis-prone children during the cold season, even in the absence of clinical symptoms.

Development of a prognostic model based on demographic, environmental and lifestyle information for predicting incidences of symptomatic respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in adult office workers.

BACKGROUND: Occurrence of respiratory tract infection (RTI) or gastrointestinal tract infection (GTI) is known to vary between individuals and may be a confounding factor in the analysis of the results of intervention trials. We aimed at developing a prognostic model for predicting individual incidences of RTI and GTI on the basis of data collected in a hand-hygiene intervention trial among adult office workers, and comprising a prior-to-onset questionnaire on potential infection-risk factors and weekly electronic follow-up reports on occurrence of symptoms of, and on exposures to RTI or GTI. METHODS: A mixed-effect negative binomial regression model was used to calculate a predictor-specific incidence rate ratio for each questionnaire variable and for each of the four endpoints, and predicted individual incidences for symptoms of and exposures to RTI and GTI. In the fitting test these were then compared with the observed incidences. RESULTS: Out of 1270 eligible employees of six enterprises, 683 volunteered to participate in the trial. Ninety-two additional participants were recruited during the follow-up. Out of the 775 registered participants, 717 returned the questionnaire with data on potential predictor variables and follow-up reports for determination of outcomes. Age and gender were the strongest predictors of both exposure to, and symptoms of RTI or GTI, although no gender difference was seen in the RTI incidence. In addition, regular use of public transport, and history of seasonal influenza vaccination increased the risk of RTI. The individual incidence values predicted by the model showed moderate correlation with those observed in each of the four categories. According to the Cox-Snell multivariate formula the model explained 11.2% of RTI and 3.3% of GTI incidences. Resampling revealed mean and 90% confidence interval values of 10.9 (CI 6.9-14.5)% for RTI and 2.4 (0.6-4.4)% for GTI. CONCLUSION: The model created explained a relatively small proportion of the occurrence of RTI or GTI. Unpredictable exposure to disease agents, and individual susceptibility factors are likely to be key determinants of disease emergence. Yet, the model might be useful in prerandomization stratification of study population in RTI intervention trials where the expected difference between trial arms is relatively small. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with Identifier NCT00821509 on 12 March 2009.