Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.

Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

Socioeconomic Disparities and the Prevalence of Antimicrobial Resistance.

BACKGROUND: The increased prevalence of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) infections is a significant global health threat, resulting in increased morbidity, mortality, and costs. The drivers of AMR are complex and potentially impacted by socioeconomic factors. We investigated the relationships between geographic and socioeconomic factors and AMR. METHODS: We collected select patient bacterial culture results from 2015 to 2020 from electronic health records (EHR) of two expansive healthcare systems within the Dallas-Fort Worth, TX (DFW) metropolitan area. Among individuals with EHR records who resided in the four most populus counties in DFW, culture data were aggregated. Case counts for each organism studied were standardized per 1,000 persons per area population. Using residential addresses, the cultures were geocoded and linked to socioeconomic index values. Spatial autocorrelation tests identified geographic clusters of high and low AMR organism prevalence and correlations with established socioeconomic indices. RESULTS: We found significant clusters of AMR organisms in areas with high levels of deprivation, as measured by the Area Deprivation Index (ADI). We found a significant spatial autocorrelation between ADI and the prevalence of AMR organisms, particularly for AmpC and MRSA with 14% and 13%, respectively, of the variability in prevalence rates being attributable to their relationship with the ADI values of the neighboring locations. CONCLUSIONS: We found that areas with a high ADI are more likely to have higher rates of AMR organisms. Interventions that improve socioeconomic factors such as poverty, unemployment, decreased access to healthcare, crowding, and sanitation in these areas of high prevalence may reduce the spread of AMR.

Projecting COVID-19 isolation bed requirements for people experiencing homelessness.

As COVID-19 spreads across the United States, people experiencing homelessness (PEH) are among the most vulnerable to the virus. To mitigate transmission, municipal governments are procuring isolation facilities for PEH to utilize following possible exposure to the virus. Here we describe the framework for anticipating isolation bed demand in PEH communities that we developed to support public health planning in Austin, Texas during March 2020. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we projected that, under no social distancing orders, a maximum of 299 (95% Confidence Interval: 223, 321) PEH may require isolation rooms in the same week. Based on these analyses, Austin Public Health finalized a lease agreement for 205 isolation rooms on March 27th 2020. As of October 7th 2020, a maximum of 130 rooms have been used on a single day, and a total of 602 PEH have used the facility. As a general rule of thumb, we expect the peak proportion of the PEH population that will require isolation to be roughly triple the projected peak daily incidence in the city. This framework can guide the provisioning of COVID-19 isolation and post-acute care facilities for high risk communities throughout the United States.