Genetic variants associated with serum alanine aminotransferase levels among patients with hepatitis C virus infection: A genome-wide association study.

Information on genetic variants associated with elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels remains limited. A genome-wide association study was performed to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with ALT levels. The ALT-associated SNP was further evaluated for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. A cohort of 892 anti-HCV seropositive patients was used for genome-wide SNP array to examine the associations with baseline ALT levels. SNPs <10-5 were further tested for associations with serial ALT levels then validated in 486 anti-HCV seropositives. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals of SNPs associated with ALT. The SNP was evaluated for HCC risk by using Cox's proportional hazards models. After quality control, 803 participants with 564,464 SNPs were included in the analysis. Of these, 12 SNPs were associated with ALT (p < 10-5 ). Among the participants, 158 (19.7%) had ALT persistently ≤15 U/L, 327 (40.7%) ever >15 U/L but never >45 U/L, and 318 (39.6%) ever >45 U/L during follow-up. The rs568800 was associated with serial ALT levels, and this was replicated in the external population significantly (p < .05). The A allele (vs C) of rs568800 was associated with ALT >15 U/L but ≤45 U/L and ALT >45 U/L, with the adjusted ORs of 1.41 (1.11-1.78) and 1.86 (1.34-2.60), respectively. The adjusted HRs for HCC were 2.09 (0.90-4.89) for AC and 2.64 (1.13-6.17) for AA (CC as a reference). In conclusion, the rs568800 was associated with serum ALT levels and HCC risk. Clinical utility should be evaluated among patients who have received antivirals.

Level of Hepatitis B (HB) Core Antibody Associates With Seroclearance of HBV DNA and HB Surface Antigen in HB e Antigen-Seronegative Patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although a low level of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is a marker of hepatitis B virus (HBV) seroclearance, additional biomarkers are needed for more accurate prediction. We investigated whether quantification of antibody against HBV core protein (anti-HBc) can identify patients with undetectable levels of HBV DNA and HBsAg seroclearance among those who were HBV e antigen (HBeAg)-seronegative. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of data from a community-based cohort of individuals (30-65 years old) in Taiwan who were HBsAg seropositive, anti-HCV negative, and free of cirrhosis and/or liver cancer, recruited from 1991 through 1992, and evaluated every 6-12 months until June 30, 2004. We measured levels of anti-HBc in blood samples from 2500 participants who were seronegative for HBeAg. The first date at which a sample tested negative for HBV DNA or HBsAg, and remained negative in subsequent tests, was designated as the date of spontaneous HBV DNA undetectability or HBsAg seroclearance. We calculated cumulative incidences of HBV DNA undetectability and HBsAg seroclearance; associations between level of anti-HBc and undetectability of HBV DNA or HBsAg seroclearance were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression. The effects of time on the associations between level of anti-HBc and HBsAg seroclearance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis. RESULTS: After a 12-year follow-up period, higher proportions of subjects with levels of anti-HBc <3 log IU/mL had undetectable levels of HBV DNA (58%) and HBsAg seroclearance (53%) than subjects with higher levels of anti-HBc (29.6% and 19.8%, respectively) (P < .001). For subjects with levels of HBsAg <102 IU/mL and anti-HBc <3 log IU/mL, the adjusted rate ratio of HBV DNA undetectability was 16.45 (95% CI, 11.15-24.28) and of HBsAg seroclearance was 17.95 (95% CI, 12.49-25.81), compared to subjects with higher levels of HBsAg and anti-HBc. A model that included level of anti-HBc as a parameter identified subjects with HBsAg seroclearance within 10 years with an AUROC of 82%; this value was significantly higher than that from models that include only level of HBV DNA and HBsAg (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective analysis of a large cohort of patients with chronic HBV infection in Taiwan, we associated levels of anti-HBc <3 log IU/mL with undetectable HBV DNA and HBsAg seroclearance occurred within 10 years; patients who also have levels of HBsAg <102 IU/mL have greater odds. Combining data on levels of HBsAg, HBV DNA, and anti-HBc is able to identify HBeAg-seronegative patients who can achieve HBsAg seroclearance with an AUROC value of 82%.

Association Between High Levels of Hepatitis B Core Antibody and Seroclearance of Hepatitis B e Antigen in Individuals With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection.

For chronic hepatitis B patients, hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance signals a transition from an immunologically active phase to an inactive carrier state with a reduction in hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and a reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).1 Predictors of HBeAg seroclearance include lower HBV DNA levels, viral genotype, the precore mutation, and higher serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels.2.

Human leukocyte antigen variants and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma modified by hepatitis C virus genotypes: A genome-wide association study.

We conducted a genome-wide association study to discover genetic variants associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We genotyped 502 HCC cases and 749 non-HCC controls using the Axiom-CHB genome-wide array. After identifying single-nucleotide polymorphism clusters located in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region which were potentially associated with HCC, HLA-DQB1 genotyping was performed to analyze 994 anti-HCV seropositives collected in the period 1991-2013 in a community-based cohort for evaluating long-term predictability of HLA variants for identifying the risk of HCC. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of HLA genotypes for determining the aforementioned HCC risk. Eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the proximity of HLA-DQB1 were associated with HCC (P < 8.7 × 10-8 ) in the genome-wide association study. Long-term follow-up showed a significant association with HLA-DQB1*03:01 and DQB1*06:02 (P < 0.05). The adjusted hazard ratios associated with HCC were 0.45 (0.30-0.68) and 2.11 (1.34-3.34) for DQB1*03:01 and DQB1*06:02, respectively. After stratification by HCV genotypes, DQB1*03:01 showed protective effects only in patients with HCV genotype 1, whereas DQB1*06:02 conferred risk of HCC only in patients with HCV non-1 genotypes. HLA imputation analyses revealed that HLA-DRB1*15:01, which is in linkage disequilibrium with DQB1*06:02, also increased the risk of HCC (odds ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.93). Haplotype analysis supported that DQB1*03:01 and DQB1*06:02 are primarily protective and susceptible variants, respectively. Conclusion: HLA-DQB1 was independently associated with HCC; HCV genotypes modified the effects of HLA-DQB1 on the risk of HCC. (Hepatology 2018;67:651-661).

Aflatoxin B1 exposure increases the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B virus carriers.

The relation between aflatoxin B1 (AFB1 ) and cirrhosis in chronic carriers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains inconclusive. This case-control study nested in a large community-based cohort aimed to assess the effect of AFB1 exposure on cirrhosis and HCC in chronic HBV carriers. Serum AFB1 -albumin adduct levels at study entry were measured in 232 cirrhosis cases, 262 HCC cases and 577 controls. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. Among all chronic HBV carriers, the time intervals between study entry and diagnosis of HCC, cirrhosis, cirrhotic HCC, and non-cirrhotic HCC were all significantly (p < 0.0001) shorter in participants with high serum levels of AFB1 -albumin adducts than those with low/undetectable levels. There were significant dose-response relations with serum AFB1 -albumin adduct level at study entry for cirrhosis (p-trend = 0.0001) and cirrhotic HCC (p-trend < 0.0001) newly diagnosed within 9 years after entry as well as non-cirrhotic HCC (p-trend = 0.021) newly diagnosed within 4 years after entry. The aORs (95% CIs) for high versus undetectable serum AFB1 -albumin adduct levels were 2.45 (1.51-3.98) for cirrhosis (p = 0.0003), 5.47 (2.20-13.63) for cirrhotic HCC (p = 0.0003), and 5.39 (1.11-26.18) for non-cirrhotic (p = 0.0368) HCC, respectively. There remained a significant dose-response relation between serum AFB1 -albumin adduct level and HCC risk (p-trend = 0.0291) in cirrhosis patients, showing an aOR (95% CI) of 3.04 (1.11-8.30) for high versus undetectable serum levels (p = 0.0299). It is concluded that AFB1 exposure may increase the risk of cirrhosis and HCC in a dose-response manner among chronic HBV carriers.

Serum Levels of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen and DNA Can Predict Inactive Carriers With Low Risk of Disease Progression.

UNLABELLED: Serum levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA (≤2000 IU/mL) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (<1000 IU/mL) have been shown to distinguish inactive carriers with high accuracy. The goal of this study was to validate the predictability of one-time measurement of quantitative HBsAg and HBV DNA levels for inactive carrier status and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) progression in a community-based cohort. This study included 1529 participants chronically infected with HBV genotype B or C from the REVEAL-HBV cohort. They were ascertained as inactive or active CHB after 18 months of follow-up. Validity of the one-time measurement was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves, while associations with clinical outcomes were calculated with Cox proportional hazards regressions. The one-time baseline measurement of HBsAg <1000 IU/mL and HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL distinguished inactive carriers from active CHB with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 71%, 85%, 83%, 74%, and 78%, respectively. Those identified as inactive carriers using the one-time baseline measurement had multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.63) and 0.36 (0.23-0.56) for hepatocellular carcinoma and liver cirrhosis, respectively, and an adjusted rate ratio of 6.97 (95% CI, 5.21-9.33) for HBsAg seroclearance. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting these outcomes using the one-time definition were similar to those obtained when using long-term follow-up defined carrier status for prediction. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the predictability of a one-time combined HBsAg and HBV DNA measurement for future inactive carriers. This single-point strategy provides new and complementary information useful for management of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. (Hepatology 2016;64:381-389).

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and the risk for diabetes: a community-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The association between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the occurrence of type II diabetes remains controversial. Prospective studies are needed to assess its causal temporality. METHODS: A cohort of 21 559 adults enrolled from seven townships in Taiwan during 1991-1992 and followed till the end of 2010. Incident diabetes over a study time period from 2000 to 2010 was ascertained through computerized linkage with the National Health Insurance database and the National Death Certification profiles. Cox's proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Antibodies against HCV (anti-HCV) were tested for all participants, and serum HCV RNA levels were measured for anti-HCV seropositives. RESULTS: During 180 244 person-years of follow-up, there were 1917 incident diabetes cases recorded. The cumulative risk for diabetes was 10.9% for anti-HCV seronegatives and 16.7% for anti-HCV seropositives respectively. The HR for diabetes of anti-HCV seropositivity was 1.53 (95% CI: 1.29-1.81) compared with anti-HCV seronegatives after adjustment for risk predictors. The adjusted HRs were 1.63 (1.31-2.02) for anti-HCV seropositives with positive HCV RNA compared to anti-HCV seronegatives (P<.001). CONCLUSION: Chronic HCV infection was associated with an increased risk for diabetes after adjustment for other risk predictors.

The rs2296651 (S267F) variant on NTCP (SLC10A1) is inversely associated with chronic hepatitis B and progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

OBJECTIVE: The sodium taurocholate co-transporting polypeptide (NTCP), encoded by SLC10A1, was recently identified as a receptor for HBV. We assessed the association of the p.Ser267Phe variant (rs2296651) with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) serostatus, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with CHB. DESIGN: The variant was genotyped in 3801 patients with CHB and 3801 matched hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seronegative individuals. ORs with 95% CIs for the variant's association with CHB, cirrhosis and HCC were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: In patients with CHB, the S267F variant was observed in 515 (18.5%) controls, 40 (17.2%) cirrhosis only cases, 49 (13.2%) non-cirrhotic HCC cases, and 52 (12.7%) cirrhotic-HCC cases. After adjustment for known risk factors, S267F was significantly associated with decreased risk for cirrhosis (OR 0.65 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.86), p=0.002) and HCC (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.72), p<0.001). This association persisted for non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic-HCC. Compared with patients with HBV DNA levels greater than 10(5) copies/mL who carried the GG genotype, patients who had undetectable HBV DNA and the GA or AA genotypes had a 25-fold decreased risk of developing HCC (OR 0.04 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.11), p<0.001). The AA genotype was also associated with HBsAg seronegativity (OR 0.13 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.34), p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SLC10A1 (NTCP) S267F variant is independently associated with decreased risk of cirrhosis and HCC, and resistance to CHB infection. Together with serum HBV DNA levels, S267F may help to identify patients with CHB with very low risk of HCC.

Risk and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma for chronic hepatitis B patients with newly developed cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most studies on risk predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients do not confirm the date at cirrhosis diagnosis. We examined HCC risk and predictors in chronic hepatitis B patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis. METHODS: 4155 HBsAg seropositive participants were followed every 6-12 months with seromarker testing. Cirrhosis was ascertained through abdominal ultrasonography and computerized linkage with national health insurance profiles. Predictors included in Cox proportional hazards models were age, HBeAg serostatus, serum levels of HBsAg, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and ALDH2 rs671 genotypes. RESULTS: A total of 301 patients developed cirrhosis, 76 of whom later developed HCC after 2462 person-years, showing an average annual incidence of 3.1%. The 15-year cumulative HCC risk among cirrhotics was 39.8% with a lifetime (30-80 years old) HCC risk of 78.5%. The adjusted HR's (95% CI, P-value) were 14.26 (3.17-64.08, P = 0.0005) for age at cirrhosis diagnosis of ≥60 years (vs 30-39 years), 2.85 (1.49-5.46, P = 0.0015) for HBeAg seropositivity (vs HBeAg seronegativity with HBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL), 0.35 (0.20-0.59, P < 0.0001) for AA/AG genotypes of rs671 (vs GG genotype), 3.68 (1.70-7.99, P = 0.0010) for ALT levels >45 U/L (vs <15 U/L), 3.52 (1.78-6.93, P = 0.0003) for AFP levels >20 ng/mL (vs <10 ng/mL), and 2.64 (1.38-5.07, P = 0.0035) for HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/mL (vs <1000 IU/mL among HBeAg seronegatives). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, GG genotype of ALDH2 rs671, HBeAg seropositivity, and elevated serum levels of ALT, AFP, and HBsAg at cirrhosis diagnosis were HCC risk predictors in cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients.

Predicting Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Surface Antigen Seroclearance in HBV e Antigen-Negative Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B: External Validation of a Scoring System.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance is the ultimate serological end point in chronic hepatitis B. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction score for spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance in HBV e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with chronic hepatitis B due to HBV genotype B or C. METHODS: The development cohort included 2491 untreated participants from the community-based REVEAL-HBV study, who were HBeAg negative, anti-hepatitis C virus negative, and cirrhosis free. The independent validation cohort consisted of 1934 hospital-based individuals from the National Taiwan University Hospital. Clinical markers included in the model were age and serum HBV DNA and HBsAg levels. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create the prediction model. RESULTS: A prediction score ranging from 0 to 27 was developed. Predicted probabilities of 5- and 10-year HBsAg seroclearance ranged from 0.95% to 30.49% and from 2.58% to 62.52%, respectively. When applied to the independent validation cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the 5- and 10-year prediction of HBsAg seroclearance in the validation cohort were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], .76-.88) and 0.74 (95% CI, .70-.78). Model fit was still adequate, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests. CONCLUSIONS: A clinically applicable prediction score for HBsAg seroclearance was developed and externally validated. This model can assist clinicians in further stratifying risk groups.

Distinct seromarkers predict different milestones of chronic hepatitis B progression.

UNLABELLED: Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA undetectability are important milestones of chronic hepatitis B and major treatment endpoints of antiviral therapy. This study investigated the role of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels and established models for predicting HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. A total of 2,139 HBsAg-seropositive, anti-HCV-seronegative, and treatment-naïve participants without liver cirrhosis at study entry were included. Spontaneous HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were analyzed in 431 HBeAg-seropositive participants and 1,708 HBeAg-seronegative participants, respectively. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox proportional hazard models were converted into integer scores for predicting seroclearance and predictive accuracy was assessed with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The HBV DNA level was the most important predictor of HBeAg seroclearance but serum HBsAg level was the most significant predictor of HBV DNA undetectability. Compared to individuals with HBsAg levels ≥ 10,000 IU/mL, the multivariate-adjusted rate ratio (95% confidence interval) of HBV DNA undetectability was 1.20 (0.62-2.30), 2.49 (1.31-4.75), and 6.08 (3.19-11.61) for those with serum HBsAg levels of 1,000-9,999, 100-999, and <100 IU/mL, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the prediction models for predicting the 5- and 10-year probabilities of HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were 0.85 (0.80-0.90) and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) for HBeAg seroclearance, and 0.77 (0.72-0.82) and 0.73 (0.70-0.76) for HBV DNA undetectability. CONCLUSION: Prediction models incorporating important host and virus factors can predict HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels rather than HBV DNA is the most important predictor of spontaneous HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels should be monitored in the management of patients with HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B.

Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B seromarkers and subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The associations between long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and spontaneous seroclearance of HBV e antigen (HBeAg), HBV DNA and HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) have never been examined by a prospective study using serially measured seromarkers. This study aimed to assess the importance of spontaneous HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg seroclearance in the prediction of HCC risk. METHODS: This study included 2946 HBsAg seropositive individuals who were seronegative for antibodies against HCV and free of liver cirrhosis. Serial serum samples collected at study entry and follow-up health examinations were tested for HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the HRs of developing HCC after seroclearance of HBV markers. RESULTS: The HR (95% CI) of developing HCC after seroclearance of HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg during follow-up was 0.63 (0.38 to 1.05), 0.24 (0.11 to 0.57) and 0.18 (0.09 to 0.38), respectively, after adjustment for age, gender and serum level of alanine aminotransferase at study entry. High HBV DNA levels at the seroclearance of HBeAg (mean±SD, 4.35±1.64 log10 IU/mL) may explain the non-significant association between HBeAg seroclearance and HCC risk. Among HBeAg seronegative participants with detectable serum HBV DNA at study entry, the lifetime (30-75-years-old) cumulative incidence of HCC was 4.0%, 6.6% and 14.2%, respectively, for those with seroclearance of both HBV DNA and HBsAg, seroclearance of HBV DNA only, and seroclearance of neither. CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous seroclearance of HBV DNA and HBsAg are important predictors of reduced HCC risk.

Hepatitis C virus genotype 1b increases cumulative lifetime risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

The association between subtypes of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remained inconclusive and evaluated in both case-control and cohort studies. In the case-control study, 397 HCC cases from medical centers were compared with 410 community-based non-HCC controls. All of them were anti-HCV-seropositive, HBsAg-seronegative with serum HCV RNA levels ≥1,000 IU/mL. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of HCV subtype after controlling for other HCC risk factors. In the cohort study, 866 anti-HCV-seropositive individuals were followed from 1991 to 2008 to assess the long-term HCC predictability of HCV subtypes. Newly developed HCC cases were ascertained by follow-up health examinations and computerized linkage with national databases. The percentage of HCV 1b subtype was higher among HCC cases than controls (64 vs. 55%, p < 0.001). Participant infected with HCV 1b had a higher mean serum HCV RNA level (2.0 × 10(6) IU/mL) than those infected with HCV non-1b (1.2 × 10(6) IU/mL, p < 0.001). The multivariate-adjusted OR (95% CI) of developing HCC for HCV 1b comparing to non-1b was 1.43 (1.02-2.02). After the long-term follow-up, the cumulative lifetime (30-80 years old) HCC risk was 19.2 and 29.7% for patients infected with HCV non-1b and 1b, respectively (p < 0.001). The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) was 1.85 (1.06-3.22) for HCV 1b compared to non-1b. HCV subtype 1b, the most prevalent subtype in Taiwan, was associated with an increased HCC risk and a proactive clinical management is suggested for patients with HCV 1b.

Prediction models of long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients: risk scores integrating host and virus profiles.

UNLABELLED: Integrating host and HBV characteristics, this study aimed to develop models for predicting long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients. This analysis included hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-seropositive and anti-HCV-seronegative participants from the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer in HBV (R.E.V.E.A.L.-HBV) cohort. Newly developed cirrhosis and HCC were ascertained through regular follow-up ultrasonography, computerized linkage with national health databases, and medical chart reviews. Two-thirds of the participants were allocated for risk model derivation and another one-third for model validation. The risk prediction model included age, gender, HBV e antigen (HBeAg) serostatus, serum levels of HBV DNA, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), quantitative serum HBsAg levels, and HBV genotypes. Additionally, the family history was included in the prediction model for HCC. Cox's proportional hazards regression coefficients for cirrhosis and HCC predictors were converted into risk scores. The areas under receiver operating curve (AUROCs) were used to evaluate the performance of risk models. Elder age, male, HBeAg, genotype C, and increasing levels of ALT, HBV DNA, and HBsAg were all significantly associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC. The risk scores estimated from the derivation set could accurately categorize participants with low, medium, and high cirrhosis and HCC risk in the validation set (P<0.001). The AUROCs for predicting 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year cirrhosis risk ranged 0.83-0.86 and 0.79-0.82 for the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The AUROC for predicting 5-year, 10-year, 15-year risk of HCC ranged 0.86-0.89 and 0.84-0.87 in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSION: The risk prediction models of cirrhosis and HCC by integrating host and HBV profiles have excellent prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability. They may be used for clinical management of chronic hepatitis B patients.

A predictive scoring system for the seroclearance of HBsAg in HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B patients with genotype B or C infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. METHODS: This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared. RESULTS: Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection increases mortality from hepatic and extrahepatic diseases: a community-based long-term prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The study aimed to evaluate the risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection on hepatic and extrahepatic deaths. METHODS: A cohort of 23 820 adults aged 30-65 years old were enrolled during 1991-1992. The seromarkers hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), anti-HCV, and serum HCV RNA levels at study entry were tested. The vital status was ascertained through computerized linkage with national death certification profiles from 1991 to 2008. RESULTS: There were 19,636 HBsAg-seronegatives, including 18,541 anti-HCV seronegatives and 1095 anti-HCV seropositives. Among anti-HCV seropositives, 69.4% had detectable serum HCV RNA levels. There were 2394 deaths that occurred during an average follow-up period of 16.2 years. Compared with anti-HCV seronegatives, anti-HCV seropositives had higher mortality from both hepatic and extrahepatic diseases, showing multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.89 (1.66-2.15) for all causes of death; 12.48 (9.34-16.66) for hepatic diseases; 1.35 (1.15-1.57) for extrahepatic diseases; 1.50 (1.10-2.03) for circulatory diseases; 2.77 (1.49-5.15) for nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis; 4.08 (1.38-12.08) for esophageal cancer; 4.19 (1.18-14.94) for prostate cancer; and 8.22 (1.36-49.66) for thyroid cancer. Anti-HCV seropositives with detectable HCV RNA levels had significantly higher mortality from hepatic and extrahepatic diseases than anti-HCV seropositives with undetectable HCV RNA. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring HCV RNA in anti-HCV seropositives is essential for the prediction of mortality associated with hepatitis C.

HBV genotype-dependent association of HLA variants with the serodecline of HBsAg in chronic hepatitis B patients.

Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is regarded as the functional cure for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The relationship between human leukocyte antigen (HLA) variants, hepatitis B virus genotype, and longitudinal HBsAg serodecline remains to be explored. A total of 1735 HBeAg-seronegative CHB patients with genotype B or C infection of the community-based REVEAL-HBV cohort were genotyped for rs1710 (HLA-G) and rs2770 (HLA-B) using TaqMan assay. Cox proportional hazard regression and generalized linear mixed models were used to analyze the association of HLA genetic variants with the rate of HBsAg seroclearance and longitudinal HBsAg serodecline. Rs1710 G allele was differentially associated with the HBsAg seroclearance in genotype B [aRR (95% CI) = 0.74 (0.56-0.98)] and genotype C [aRR (95%CI) = 1.43 (1.08-1.88)] infection. Rs2770 G allele was associated with HBsAg seroclearance only in genotype B infection [aRR (95% CI) = 0.69 (0.52-0.91)]. The alleles associated with HBsAg seroclearance were significant predictors for the serodecline of HBsAg levels in an HBV genotype-dependent manner (genotype B infection: rs1710, P = 0.013; rs2770, P = 0.0081; genotype C infection: rs1710, P = 0.0452). Our results suggest both spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance and serodecline are modified by the interaction between HLA variants and HBV genotype.

Changes in serum levels of HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase determine risk for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is not clear whether risk for hepatocellular carcinoma can be accurately determined from long-term changes in serum levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA or alanine aminotransferase (ALT). METHODS: We measured serum levels of HBV DNA and ALT at enrollment and during follow-up analysis of 3160 participants in the REVEAL-HBV study. Development of hepatocellular carcinoma was determined from follow-up examinations and computerized linkage with National Cancer Registry and National Death Certification profiles. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: During 38,330 person-years of follow-up, 81 participants developed hepatocellular carcinoma (incidence rate, 211.3/100,000 person-years). The risk for hepatocellular carcinoma was only slightly higher for participants whose follow-up levels of HBV DNA spontaneously decreased to <10,000 copies/mL compared with those with baseline levels of HBV DNA<10,000 copies/mL (control group; HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 0.68-7.37). Compared with the control group, the HRs (95% CI) for long-term levels of HBV DNA that persisted at 10,000 to 100,000 copies/mL, decreased to/persisted at 100,000 to 1,000,000 copies/mL, or decreased to/persisted at 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 copies/mL were 3.12 (1.09-8.89), 8.85 (3.85-20.35), and 16.78 (7.33-38.39), respectively. A gradient in ALT level was significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma risk: from all low-normal, to ever high-normal, to transient abnormal, to persistent abnormal (Ptrend<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term changes in serum levels of HBV DNA and ALT are independent predictors of risk for hepatocellular carcinoma. Regular monitoring of levels of HBV DNA and ALT is important in clinical management of chronic carriers of HBV.

Incidence and determinants of spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen and DNA in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are important markers of progression of chronic HBV infection. We performed a long-term cohort study to elucidate the incidence and determinants of HBeAg and HBV DNA seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: A total of 1289 participants with a serum HBV DNA level of 10,000 copies/mL or more and without cirrhosis when the study began (1991-1992) were followed up until June 2004. A subset of patients that tested positive for HBeAg at baseline (n = 439) was included in the analysis of HBeAg seroclearance. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate seroclearance rate ratios for various determinants associated with the outcomes. RESULTS: After 3161.2 person-years of follow-up evaluation, HBeAg seroclearance occurred in 187 participants (incidence rate, 5.9 per 100 person-years). The cumulative lifetime incidence of HBeAg seroclearance among patients who were 30 to 40, or 50, 60, 70, or 74 years old was 38.8%, 69.4%, 81.9%, 89.1%, and 95.5%, respectively. Major predictors of HBeAg seroclearance included female sex, genotype B, the precore 1896 mutant, increased serum levels of alanine aminotransferase, and low baseline serum levels of HBV DNA. The median (interquartile range) serum level of HBV DNA at the time of HBeAg seroclearance was 177,801 copies/mL (4941-3,247,560 copies/mL). HBV DNA seroclearance occurred in 199 participants (15.4%) during the mean follow-up period of 7.8 years (incidence rate, 1.97 per 100 person-years). The cumulative lifetime incidence of HBV DNA seroclearance at 40, 50, 60, 70, and 77 years old was 10.0%, 25.0%, 38.8%, 54.2%, and 82.8%, respectively. Lower levels of HBV DNA at study entry and among those with the precore 1896 wild-type variant were associated with an increased rate of HBV DNA seroclearance. Among individuals who were HBeAg-seropositive at study entry and cleared serum HBV DNA during the follow-up period, 89% had cleared HBeAg by the time they had an undetectable serum level of HBV DNA. CONCLUSIONS: Serum level of HBV DNA is the most important predictor of seroclearance of HBeAg and HBV DNA. This finding supports current clinical guidelines for antiviral treatments of chronic hepatitis B.

Community and personal risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection: a survey of 23,820 residents in Taiwan in 1991-2.

AIM: The aim of this study was to explore the community-level risk factors, such as high hepatitis C viruse (HCV)-RNA positive rate and limited medical resources in a township, for HCV infection, one major cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: This study enrolled 23,820 residents living in 155 villages of seven townships in Taiwan in 1991-2 to explore both individual and community risk factors for HCV infection. Antibodies against HCV (anti-HCV), HCV-RNA and HCV genotype in serum samples were determined by enzyme immunoassay, PCR and melting curve analysis, respectively. RESULTS: The overall anti-HCV seroprevalence was 5.5%, HCV-RNA was detectable in 68.1% of the seropositives of anti-HCV, and genotype 1 was the most prevalent genotype (54.6%). Personal risk factors for the seropositivity of anti-HCV included older age, female gender, low educational level and history of blood transfusion. Based on the multilevel analysis, persons living in villages with high HCV-RNA-positive rates and limited healthcare resources had an increased seroprevalence of anti-HCV after adjustment for individual risk factors. The multivariate-adjusted prevalence OR (95% CI) was 3.49 (1.80 to 6.76) and 8.48 (5.07 to 14.20) for villages with medium and high HCV-RNA positive rate, respectively. The multivariate-adjusted OR (95% CI) was was 1.75 (0.76 to 4.01) and 3.91 (2.25 to 6.80), respectively, for villages with medium and poor healthcare resources. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that community risk factors contribute significantly to the variation in anti-HCV seroprevalence. It implies both the adequacy of healthcare resources and the treatment of patients positive for HCV-RNA may prevent individual residents from the acquisition of HCV infection from the community.