Health-related quality of life trajectories in critical illness: Protocol for a Monte Carlo simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a patient-centred outcome increasingly used as a secondary outcome in critical care research. It may cover several important dimensions of clinical status in intensive care unit (ICU) patients that arguably elude other more easily quantified outcomes such as mortality. Poor associations with harder outcomes, conflicting data on HRQoL in critically ill compared to the background population, and paradoxical effects on HRQoL and mortality complicate the current operationalisation in critical care trials. This protocol outlines a simulation study that will gauge if the areas under the HRQoL trajectories could be a viable alternative. METHODS: We will gauge the behaviour of the proposed HRQoL operationalisation through Monte Carlo simulations, under clinical scenarios that reflect a broad critical care population eligible for inclusion in a large pragmatic trial. We will simulate 15,360 clinical scenarios based on a full factorial design with the following seven simulation parameters: number of patients per arm, relative mortality reduction in the interventional arm, acceleration of HRQoL improvement in the interventional arm, the relative improvement in final HRQoL in the interventional arm, dampening effect of mortality on HRQoL values at discharge from the ICU, proportion of so-called mortality benefiters in the interventional arm and mortality trajectory shape. For each clinical scenario, we will simulate 100,000 two-arm trials with 1:1 randomisation. HRQoL will be sampled fortnightly after ICU discharge. Outcomes will include HRQoL in survivors and all patients at the end of follow-up; mean areas under the HRQoL trajectories in both arms; and mean difference between areas under the HRQoL trajectories and single-sampled HRQoLs at the end of follow-up. DISCUSSION: In the outlined simulation study, we aim to assess whether the area under the HRQoL trajectory curve could be a candidate for reconciling the seemingly paradoxical effects on improved mortality and reduced HRQoL while remaining sensitive to early or accelerated improvement in patient outcomes. The resultant insights will inform subsequent methodological work on prudent collection and statistical analysis of such data from real critically ill patients.

Intravenous MELAtonin for prevention of Postoperative Agitation and Emergence Delirium in children (MELA-PAED): A protocol and statistical analysis plan for a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Emergence agitation and delirium in children remain a common clinical challenge in the post-anesthetic care unit. Preoperative oral melatonin has been suggested as an effective preventive drug with a favorable safety profile. The oral bioavailability of melatonin, however, is low. Therefore, the MELA-PAED trial aims to investigate the efficacy and safety of intraoperative intravenous melatonin for the prevention of emergence agitation in pediatric surgical patients. METHODS: MELA-PAED is a randomized, double-blind, parallel two-arm, multi-center, superiority trial comparing intravenous melatonin with placebo. Four hundred participants aged 1-6 years will be randomized 1:1 to either the intervention or placebo. The intervention consists of intravenous melatonin 0.15 mg/kg administered approximately 30 min before the end of surgery. Participants will be monitored in the post-anesthetic care unit (PACU), and the Post Hospitalization Behavior Questionnaire for Ambulatory Surgery (PHBQ-AS) will be performed on days 1, 7, and 14 after the intervention. Serious Adverse Events (SAE) will be assessed up to 30 days after the intervention. RESULTS: The primary outcome is the incidence of emergence agitation, assessed dichotomously as any Watcha score >2 during the participant's stay in the post-anesthetic care unit. Secondary outcomes are opioid consumption in the post-anesthetic care unit and adverse events. Exploratory outcomes include SAEs, postoperative pain, postoperative nausea and vomiting, and time to awakening, to first oral intake, and to discharge readiness. CONCLUSION: The MELA-PAED trial investigates the efficacy of intravenous intraoperative melatonin for the prevention of emergence agitation in pediatric surgical patients. Results may provide further knowledge concerning the use of melatonin in pediatric perioperative care.

Empirical meropenem versus piperacillin/tazobactam for adult patients with sepsis (EMPRESS) trial: Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Piperacillin/tazobactam may be associated with less favourable outcomes than carbapenems in patients with severe bacterial infections, but the certainty of evidence is low. METHODS: The Empirical Meropenem versus Piperacillin/Tazobactam for Adult Patients with Sepsis (EMPRESS) trial is an investigator-initiated, international, parallel-group, randomised, open-label, adaptive clinical trial with an integrated feasibility phase. We will randomise adult, critically ill patients with sepsis to empirical treatment with meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam for up to 30 days. The primary outcome is 30-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes are serious adverse reactions within 30 days; isolation precautions due to resistant bacteria within 30 days; days alive without life support and days alive and out of hospital within 30 and 90 days; 90- and 180-day all-cause mortality and 180-day health-related quality of life. EMPRESS will use Bayesian statistical models with weak to somewhat sceptical neutral priors. Adaptive analyses will be conducted after follow-up of the primary outcome for the first 400 participants concludes and after every 300 subsequent participants, with adaptive stopping for superiority/inferiority and practical equivalence (absolute risk difference <2.5%-points) and response-adaptive randomisation. The expected sample sizes in scenarios with no, small or large differences are 5189, 5859 and 2570 participants, with maximum 14,000 participants and ≥99% probability of conclusiveness across all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: EMPRESS will compare the effects of empirical meropenem against piperacillin/tazobactam in adult, critically ill patients with sepsis. Due to the pragmatic, adaptive design with high probability of conclusiveness, the trial results are expected to directly inform clinical practice.

Effects of duration of follow-up and lag in data collection on the performance of adaptive clinical trials.

Different combined outcome-data lags (follow-up durations plus data-collection lags) may affect the performance of adaptive clinical trial designs. We assessed the influence of different outcome-data lags (0-105 days) on the performance of various multi-stage, adaptive trial designs (2/4 arms, with/without a common control, fixed/response-adaptive randomisation) with undesirable binary outcomes according to different inclusion rates (3.33/6.67/10 patients/day) under scenarios with no, small, and large differences. Simulations were conducted under a Bayesian framework, with constant stopping thresholds for superiority/inferiority calibrated to keep type-1 error rates at approximately 5%. We assessed multiple performance metrics, including mean sample sizes, event counts/probabilities, probabilities of conclusiveness, root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated effect in the selected arms, and RMSEs between the analyses at the time of stopping and the final analyses including data from all randomised patients. Performance metrics generally deteriorated when the proportions of randomised patients with available data were smaller due to longer outcome-data lags or faster inclusion, that is, mean sample sizes, event counts/probabilities, and RMSEs were larger, while the probabilities of conclusiveness were lower. Performance metric impairments with outcome-data lags ≤45 days were relatively smaller compared to those occurring with ≥60 days of lag. For most metrics, the effects of different outcome-data lags and lower proportions of randomised patients with available data were larger than those of different design choices, for example, the use of fixed versus response-adaptive randomisation. Increased outcome-data lag substantially affected the performance of adaptive trial designs. Trialists should consider the effects of outcome-data lags when planning adaptive trials.

Use of days alive without life support and similar count outcomes in randomised clinical trials - an overview and comparison of methodological choices and analysis methods.

BACKGROUND: Days alive without life support (DAWOLS) and similar outcomes that seek to summarise mortality and non-mortality experiences are increasingly used in critical care research. The use of these outcomes is challenged by different definitions and non-normal outcome distributions that complicate statistical analysis decisions. METHODS: We scrutinized the central methodological considerations when using DAWOLS and similar outcomes and provide a description and overview of the pros and cons of various statistical methods for analysis supplemented with a comparison of these methods using data from the COVID STEROID 2 randomised clinical trial. We focused on readily available regression models of increasing complexity (linear, hurdle-negative binomial, zero-one-inflated beta, and cumulative logistic regression models) that allow comparison of multiple treatment arms, adjustment for covariates and interaction terms to assess treatment effect heterogeneity. RESULTS: In general, the simpler models adequately estimated group means despite not fitting the data well enough to mimic the input data. The more complex models better fitted and thus better replicated the input data, although this came with increased complexity and uncertainty of estimates. While the more complex models can model separate components of the outcome distributions (i.e., the probability of having zero DAWOLS), this complexity means that the specification of interpretable priors in a Bayesian setting is difficult. Finally, we present multiple examples of how these outcomes may be visualised to aid assessment and interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: This summary of central methodological considerations when using, defining, and analysing DAWOLS and similar outcomes may help researchers choose the definition and analysis method that best fits their planned studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: COVID STEROID 2 trial, ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04509973, ctri.nic.in: CTRI/2020/10/028731.

Association between days alive without life support/out of hospital and health-related quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Trials in critically ill patients increasingly focus on days alive without life support (DAWOLS) or days alive out of hospital (DAOOH) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). DAWOLS and DAOOH convey more information than mortality and are simpler and faster to collect than HRQoL. However, whether these outcomes are associated with HRQoL is uncertain. We thus aimed to assess the associations between DAWOLS and DAOOH and long-term HRQoL. METHODS: Secondary analysis of the COVID STEROID 2 trial including adults with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia and the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) trial including adult intensive care unit patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure. Associations between DAWOLS and DAOOH at day 28 and 90 and long-term HRQoL (after 6 or 12 months) using the EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level survey (EQ VAS and EQ-5D-5L index values) were assessed using flexible models and evaluated using measures of fit and prediction adequacy in both datasets (comprising internal performance and external validation), non-parametric correlation coefficients and graphical presentations. RESULTS: We found no strong associations between DAWOLS or DAOOH and HRQoL in survivors at HRQoL-follow-up (615 and 1476 patients, respectively). There was substantial variability in outcomes, and predictions from the best fitted models were poor both internally and externally in the other trial dataset, which also showed inadequate calibration. Moderate associations were found when including non-survivors, although predictions remained uncertain and calibration inadequate. CONCLUSION: DAWOLS and DAOOH were poorly associated with HRQoL in adult survivors of severe or critical illness included in the COVID STEROID 2 and HOT-ICU trials.

Adverse Events Associated With Coprescription of Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitors and Oral Organic Nitrates in Male Patients With Ischemic Heart Disease : A Case-Crossover Study.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant use of oral organic nitrates (nitrates) and phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) inhibitors is contraindicated. OBJECTIVE: To measure temporal trends in the coprescription of nitrates and PDE5 inhibitors and to measure the association between cardiovascular outcomes and the coprescription of nitrates with PDE5 inhibitors. DESIGN: Case-crossover design. SETTING: Nationwide study of Danish patients from 2000 to 2018. PATIENTS: Male patients with International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes for ischemic heart disease (IHD), including those who had a continuing prescription for nitrates and a new, filled prescription for PDE5 inhibitors. MEASUREMENTS: Two composite outcomes were measured: 1) cardiac arrest, shock, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or acute coronary arteriography and 2) syncope, angina pectoris, or drug-related adverse event. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2018, 249 541 male patients with IHD were identified. Of these, 42 073 patients had continuing prescriptions for nitrates. During this period, the prescription rate for PDE5 inhibitors in patients with IHD who were taking nitrates increased from an average of 0.9 prescriptions (95% CI, 0.5 to 1.2 prescriptions) per 100 persons per year in 2000 to 19.5 prescriptions (CI, 18.0 to 21.1 prescriptions) in 2018. No statistically significant association was found between the coprescription of nitrates with PDE5 inhibitors and the risk for either composite outcome (odds ratio [OR], 0.58 [CI, 0.28 to 1.13] for the first outcome and OR, 0.73 [CI, 0.40 to 1.32] for the second outcome). LIMITATION: An assumption was made that concurrently filled prescriptions for nitrates and PDE5 inhibitors equaled concomitant use. CONCLUSION: From 2000 to 2018, the use of PDE5 inhibitors increased 20-fold among Danish patients with IHD who were taking nitrates. A statistically significant association between concomitant use of these medications and cardiovascular adverse events could not be identified. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Ib Mogens Kristiansens Almene Fond and Helsefonden.

Patient-Important Outcomes Other Than Mortality in Contemporary ICU Trials: A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in adult ICU patients increasingly include patient-important outcomes other than mortality. This comes with challenges regarding outcome choices/definitions, handling of deceased patients and missing data in analyses, and choices of effect measures and statistical methods due to complex distributions. This scoping review aimed to characterize how these challenges are handled in relevant contemporary RCTs. DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched 10 selected journals for RCTs conducted primarily in adult ICU patients published between 1 January 2018 and 5 May 2022 reporting at least one patient-important outcome other than mortality, including "days alive without"…-type outcomes, functional/cognitive/neurologic outcomes, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes, and ordinal/other outcomes. STUDY SELECTION: Abstracts and full-texts were assessed independently and in duplicate by two reviewers. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted independently and in duplicate by two reviewers using predefined and pilot-tested extraction forms and subsequently categorized to facilitate analysis. DATA SYNTHESIS: We included 687 outcomes from 167 RCTs, with 32% of RCTs using a patient-important outcome other than mortality as a (co-)primary outcome, most frequently "days alive without"…-type outcomes. Many different functional/cognitive/neurologic (103) and HRQoL (29) outcomes were reported. Handling of deceased patients varied, with analyses frequently restricted to survivors only for functional/cognitive/neurologic (62%) and HRQoL (89%) outcomes. Follow-up was generally longer and missing data proportions higher for functional/cognitive/neurologic and HRQoL outcomes. Most outcomes were analyzed using nonparametric tests (31%), linear regression/ t tests (27%), chi-square-like tests (12%), and proportional odds logistic regression (9%), often without presentation of actual treatment effects estimates (38%). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of RCTs, substantial variation in practice and suboptimal methodological choices were observed. This calls for increased focus on standardizing outcome choices and definitions, adequate handling of missing data and deceased patients in analyses, and use of statistical methods quantifying effect sizes.

Health-related quality of life and days alive without life support or out of hospital: Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Mortality is often the primary outcome in randomised clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in critically ill patients. Due to increased awareness on survivors after critical illness and outcomes other than mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and days alive without life support (DAWOLS) or days alive and out of hospital (DAAOOH) are increasingly being used. DAWOLS and DAAOOH convey more information than mortality, are easier to collect than HRQoL, and are usually assessed at earlier time points, which may be preferable in some situations. However, the associations between DAWOLS-DAAOOH and HRQoL are uncertain. METHODS: We will assess associations between DAWOLS-DAAOOH at day 28 and 90 (independent variables/predictors) and HRQoL assessed using the EuroQol EQ-5D-5L questionnaire (EQ-VAS and EQ-5D-5L index values) at 6 or 12 months (dependent variables) in two RCTs: the COVID STEROID 2 RCT conducted in adult patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia and the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) RCT conducted in adult intensive care patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure. We will describe associations using best-fitting fractional polynomial transformations separately in each dataset, with the resulting models presented and assessed in both datasets graphically and using measures of fit and prediction adequacy (i.e., internal performance and external validation). We will use multiple imputation if missingness exceeds 5%. DISCUSSION: The outlined study will provide important knowledge on the associations between DAWOLS-DAAOOH and HRQoL in adult critically ill patients, which may help researchers and clinical trialists prioritise and select outcomes in future RCTs conducted in this population.

Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP) Vaccine Is Associated With Increased female-Male Mortality. Studies of DTP administered before and after measles vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP3) is used to monitor immunization programs. DTP has been associated with higher female mortality. METHODS: We updated previous literature searches for DTP studies of mortality by sex. We examined the female/male (F/M) mortality rate ratio (MRR) with increasing number of doses of DTP and for subsequent doses of measles vaccine (MV) after DTP and of DTP after MV. RESULTS: Eight studies had information on both DTP1 and DTP3. The F/M MRR was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], .88-1.57) after DTP1 and increased to 1.66 (95% CI, 1.32-2.09) after DTP3. Following receipt of MV, the F/M MRR declined to 0.63 (95% CI, .42-.96). In 11 studies the F/M MRR increased to 1.73 (95% CI, 1.33-2.27) when DTP-containing vaccine was administered after MV. CONCLUSIONS: F/M MRR increased with increasing doses of DTP. After MV, girls had lower mortality than boys. With DTP after MV, mortality increased again for girls relative to boys. No bias can explain these changes in F/M MRR. DTP does not improve male survival substantially in situations with herd immunity to pertussis and higher F/M MRR after DTP may therefore reflects an absolute increase in female mortality.

Out-of-Sequence Vaccinations With Measles Vaccine and Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine: A Reanalysis of Demographic Surveillance Data From Rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Due to delays in vaccinations, diphtheria-tetanus-whole-cell-pertussis (DTP) is often given with or after measles vaccine (MV)-out of sequence. We reanalyzed data from Matlab, Bangladesh, to examine how administration of MV and DTP out-of-sequence was associated with child survival. METHODS: In sum, 36 650 children born between 1986 and 1999 were followed with registration of vaccinations and survival. Controlling for background factors using Cox proportional hazards models, survival was analyzed between 9 and 24 months of age. We measured the mortality rate ratio (MRR) to compare vaccination groups. Oral polio vaccine (OPV) campaigns, which started in 1995, reduced the mortality rate and reduced the difference between vaccination groups. In the main analysis, we therefore censored for OPV campaigns; there were 151 nonaccident deaths before the OPV campaigns. RESULTS: Compared with MV administered alone (MV-only), DTP administered with or after MV had MRR 2.20 (1.31-3.70), and DTP-only had MRR 1.78 (1.01-3.11). Compared with MV-only, DTP administered with MV had a female-male MRR 0.56 (0.13-2.38), significantly different to DTP administered after MV, which had MRR 14.83 (1.88-117.1), test of interaction P = .011. Compared with having DTP (no MV) as most recent vaccination, MV-only had a nonaccident MRR of 0.56 (0.32-0.99). CONCLUSION: The negative effects of non-live DTP with or after live MV are not explained merely by selection bias. These observations support a live-vaccine-last policy where DTP should not be given with or after MV.

Patient-important outcomes other than mortality in recent ICU trials: Protocol for a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in intensive care units (ICUs) frequently focus on all-cause mortality, but other patient-important outcomes are increasingly used and recommended. Their use, however, is not straightforward: choices and definitions, operationalisation of death, handling of missing data, choice of effect measures, and statistical analyses for these outcomes vary greatly. METHODS: We will conduct a scoping review in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews. We will search 10 selected general and speciality journals for RCTs conducted in adult ICU patients from 2018 and onwards reporting at least 1 patient-important outcome other than mortality (including days alive without life support/days alive and out of hospital-type outcomes, health-related quality of life, functional/cognitive/neurological outcomes, and other general patient-important outcomes). We will summarise data on outcome measures and definitions, assessment time points, proportions and handling of death, proportions and handling of missing data, and effect measures and statistical methods used for analysis. DISCUSSION: The outlined scoping review will provide an overview of choices, definitions and handling of patient-important outcomes other than mortality in contemporary RCTs conducted in adult ICU patients. This may guide discussions with patients and relatives, the design of future RCTs, and research on optimal outcome choices and handling.

Education and incident type 2 diabetes: quantifying the impact of differential exposure and susceptibility to being overweight or obese.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Educational inequality in type 2 diabetes incidence is evident in many high-income countries. Previous studies have shown that differential exposure to being overweight/obese across educational groups may partly explain this inequality. Whether differential susceptibility to being overweight/obese across educational groups contributes to this inequality has been investigated less frequently, even though it is a plausible mechanism. The two mechanisms may even be highly intertwined. In this longitudinal cohort study, we investigated the simultaneous contribution of differential exposure and differential susceptibility to being overweight/obese to educational inequality in type 2 diabetes incidence. METHODS: The study population comprised 53,159 Danish men and women aged 50-64 years at baseline who were followed for a mean of 14.7 years. We estimated rate differences of type 2 diabetes by education level per 100,000 person-years. Using counterfactual mediation analysis, these rate differences were decomposed into proportions attributable to differential exposure, differential susceptibility and all other pathways, respectively. We compared this approach with conventional approaches to mediation and interaction analysis. RESULTS: Compared with a high level of education, a low education level was associated with 454 (95% CI 398, 510) additional cases of type 2 diabetes, and a medium education level with 316 (CI 268, 363) additional cases. Differential exposure to being overweight/obese accounted for 37% (CI 31%, 45%) of the additional cases among those with a low education level and 29% (CI 24%, 36%) of the additional cases among those with a medium education level. Differential susceptibility accounted for 9% (CI 4%, 14%) and 6% (CI 3%, 10%) of the additional cases among those with a low and medium education level, respectively. Compared with the counterfactual approach, the conventional approaches suggested stronger effects of both mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Differential exposure and susceptibility to being overweight/obese are both important mechanisms in the association between education and type 2 diabetes incidence.

Arterial oxygen tensions in mechanically ventilated ICU patients and mortality: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Supplemental oxygen therapy is commonly required for respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation in the ICU. However, hyperoxaemia may be injurious and may increase mortality. We evaluated the relationship amongst the degree of hyperoxaemia and changes in fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) in response to hyperoxaemia, as well as associations with mortality in mechanically ventilated ICU patients. METHODS: We retrospectively identified all invasively mechanically ventilated patients admitted to five ICUs, and retrieved all oxygen tension (Pao2) and Fio2 data. We assessed the time between arterial blood gas (ABG) samples, proportions of patients with hyperoxaemia, and changes in Fio2 when hyperoxaemia was present. The primary outcome was the association between Pao2 (assessed by mechanically ventilated exposure-time-divided area under the curve [AUC]) and mortality (in-ICU and post-ICU discharge) using a multistate illness-death model with transition intensities estimated by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We assessed 177 769 ABG analyses obtained from 4998 patients between January 2012 and June 2016. The median time between ABGs was 3 h (inter-quartile range: 2-4 h); the median Pao2 was 11.3 kPa (9.8-13.6 kPa), and Fio2 was 0.40 (0.35-0.50). Hyperoxaemia (Pao2 >13.7 kPa) was present in 23.9% of the ABGs, and hyperoxaemia seemed to be disregarded when Fio2 was <0.40, as >50% of these Fio2 values were not subsequently reduced. AUC Pao2 >16.0 kPa was associated with increased ICU mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-2.40). CONCLUSIONS: In mechanically ventilated ICU patients, hyperoxaemia was common. Although oxygen supplementation was often reduced when hyperoxaemia was observed, several patients remained hyperoxaemic. Hyperoxaemia was associated with increased ICU mortality in these patients.

How are children who are delayed in the Childhood Vaccination Programme vaccinated: A nationwide register-based cohort study of Danish children aged 15-24 months and semi-structured interviews with vaccination providers.

Aims: Delay of childhood vaccinations is common and influences efforts to reduce targeted diseases. In Denmark, the diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) vaccine is recommended at ages 3, 5 and 12 months and the first measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR-1) at 15 months. Following guidelines, children delayed at age 15 months should receive MMR-1 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 simultaneously, unless DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 was received less than 6 months ago, when MMR-1 alone is recommended. We studied compliance with these guidelines and the reasons for non-compliance with a focus on vaccination providers. Methods: We used a nationwide register-based cohort study of children born in Denmark between January 2000 and June 2013, who were lacking MMR-1 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 at age 15 months and were followed to 24 months. We also performed semi-structured telephone interviews with vaccination providers. Results: The study consisted of 156,921 children (18% of the children born in the period). Among the 40,060 children who had received DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 less than 6 months ago, 37,892 (95%) received MMR-1 alone. Among the 88,469 children who had received DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 more than 6 months ago, 6334 (7%) received DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 and MMR-1 simultaneously. The interviews indicated that some vaccination providers are reluctant to give multiple vaccinations at the same visit and some have a preference of following the usual sequence in the programme. Conclusions: Vaccination providers generally complied with the recommended minimum 6 months' interval between DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3. Conversely, there was a low compliance with the recommendation to administer DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 and MMR-1 simultaneously. More efforts are needed to ensure timely vaccination.

IV estimation without distributional assumptions.

It is widely known that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimation allows the researcher to estimate causal effects between an exposure and an outcome even in face of serious uncontrolled confounding. The key requirement for IV estimation is the existence of a variable, the instrument, which only affects the outcome through its effects on the exposure and that the instrument-outcome relationship is unconfounded. Countless papers have employed such techniques and carefully addressed the validity of the IV assumption just mentioned. However, less appreciated is that fact that the IV estimation also depends on a number of distributional assumptions in particular linearities. In this paper, we propose a novel bounding procedure which can bound the true causal effect relying only on the key IV assumption and not on any distributional assumptions. For a purely binary case (instrument, exposure, and outcome all binary), such boundaries have been proposed by Balke and Pearl in 1997. We extend such boundaries to non-binary settings. In addition, our procedure offers a tuning parameter such that one can go from the traditional IV analysis, which provides a point estimate, to a completely unrestricted bound and anything in between. Subject matter knowledge can be used when setting the tuning parameter. To the best of our knowledge, no such methods exist elsewhere. The method is illustrated using a pivotal study which introduced IV estimation to epidemiologists. Here, we demonstrate that the conclusion of this paper indeed hinges on these additional distributional assumptions. R-code is provided in the Supporting Information.

Revaccination With Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine and Infectious Disease Morbidity: A Danish Register-based Cohort Study.

Background: It has been hypothesized that revaccination with live vaccines is associated with reductions in off-target morbidity and mortality. We examined if revaccination with the live measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) is associated with a lower rate of off-target infections. Methods: We performed a register-based nationwide cohort study that included 295559 children born in Denmark from April 2004 to December 2010. The cohort were followed from age 47 months (1 month before turning age 4 years, which is the recommended age of the second MMR [MMR-2]) until age 60 months. In Cox regression, we estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) of antibiotic prescriptions and hospital admissions for any infection comparing MMR-2 as most recent vaccine with not having MMR-2 as the most recent vaccine. Results: There was no association between MMR-2 and antibiotic prescriptions (aIRR, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-1.02). The aIRR for the association between MMR-2 and admissions for infection of any duration was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.98). For admissions for infection lasting 0 to 1 day, the aIRR was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.90-1.03) compared with the aIRR of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95) for admissions for infection lasting 2 days or longer (test for equality of aIRRs, P = .039). Conclusions: In this study, revaccination with MMR appeared safe in relation to off-target infections and was associated with a lower rate of severe off-target infections. More studies of the possible association between revaccination with live attenuated vaccines and off-target infections are needed.

External validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).

BACKGROUND: The Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) is a clinical prediction model, which estimates the risk of 90-day mortality in acutely ill adult ICU patients using 7 readily available variables. We aimed to externally validate the SMS-ICU and compare its discrimination with existing prediction models used with 90-day mortality as the outcome. METHODS: We externally validated the SMS-ICU using data from 3282 patients included in the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial, which randomised acutely ill adult ICU patients with risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding to prophylactic pantoprazole or placebo in 33 ICUs in Europe. We assessed discrimination, calibration and overall performance of the SMS-ICU and compared discrimination with the commonly used and more complex SAPS II and SOFA scores. RESULTS: Mortality at day 90 was 30.7%. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the SMS-ICU was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65-0.69), as compared with 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70, P = 0.35) for SAPS II and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.65, P < 0.001) for the SOFA score. Calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.001 and 0.786, respectively, and Nagelkerke's R2 (overall performance) was 0.06. The proportions of missing data for the SMS-ICU, SAPS II and SOFA scores were 0.2%, 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Discrimination for 90-day mortality of the SMS-ICU in this cohort was poor, but similar to SAPS II and better than that of the SOFA score with markedly less missing data.

Neonatal BCG vaccination has no effect on recurrent wheeze in the first year of life: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent wheeze (RW) is frequent in childhood. Studies have suggested that BCG vaccination can have nonspecific effects, reducing general nontuberculosis morbidity, including respiratory tract infections and atopic diseases. The mechanisms behind these nonspecific effects of BCG are not fully understood, but a shift from a TH2 to a TH1 response has been suggested as a possible explanation. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that BCG at birth would reduce the cumulative incidence of RW during the first year of life. METHODS: The Danish Calmette Study is a multicenter randomized trial conducted from 2012-2015 at 3 Danish hospitals. The 4262 newborns of 4184 included mothers were randomized 1:1 to BCG (SSI strain 1331) or to a no-intervention control group within 7 days of birth; siblings were randomized together as one randomization unit. Exclusion criteria were gestational age of less than 32 weeks, birth weight of less than 1000 g, known immunodeficiency, or no Danish-speaking parent. Information was collected through telephone interviews and clinical examinations at 3 and 13 months of age; data collectors were blind to randomization group. RW was defined in several ways, with the main definition being physician-diagnosed and medically treated RW up to 13 months of age. RESULTS: By 13 months, 211 (10.0%) of 2100 children in the BCG group and 195 (9.4%) of 2071 children in the control group had received a diagnosis of RW from a medical doctor and received antiasthma treatment (relative risk, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.89-1.28). Supplementary analyses were made, including an analysis of baseline risk factors for development of RW. CONCLUSION: Neonatal BCG had no effect on the development of RW before 13 months of age.

Neonatal BCG has no effect on allergic sensitization and suspected food allergy until 13 months.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is used in many countries as protection against tuberculosis. Studies have suggested that BCG may also have non-specific effects, reducing non-tuberculosis mortality, morbidity, and atopic manifestations. In this study, we evaluated the effect of neonatal BCG vaccination on allergic sensitization and suspected food allergy at 13 months of age. METHODS: The Danish Calmette Study was conducted from 2012 to 2015 at three Danish hospitals. Within 7 days of birth, the 4262 newborns of 4184 included mothers were randomized 1:1 to BCG or to a no-intervention control group. Exclusion criteria were gestational age <32 weeks, birth weight <1000 g, known immunodeficiency, or no Danish-speaking parent. Follow-up information was collected through telephone interviews at 3 and 13 months of age. Subgroups of participants were offered blood sampling at 13 months of age. RESULTS: By 13 months of age, the parents and/or general practitioners of 5.6% (117/2089) of the children in the BCG group and 6.1% (126/2061) of the control group suspected food allergy, resulting in a risk ratio comparing BCG-vaccinated children with control children of 0.91 (95% CI 0.71-1.16). Among 1370 blood samples, sensitization (Phadiatop Infant >0.35 kUA/L) was found in 55 of 743 (7.4%) children in the BCG group and 50 of 627 (8.0%) of the control group (risk ratio 0.94 [0.65-1.36]). CONCLUSION: In this randomized clinical trial, neonatal BCG had no significant effect on suspected food allergy or on sensitization at 13 months of age.