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1.
PLoS Biol ; 20(8): e3001729, 2022 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35972940

RESUMO

Species introduced through human-related activities beyond their native range, termed alien species, have various impacts worldwide. The IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is a global standard to assess negative impacts of alien species on native biodiversity. Alien species can also positively affect biodiversity (for instance, through food and habitat provisioning or dispersal facilitation) but there is currently no standardized and evidence-based system to classify positive impacts. We fill this gap by proposing EICAT+, which uses 5 semiquantitative scenarios to categorize the magnitude of positive impacts, and describes underlying mechanisms. EICAT+ can be applied to all alien taxa at different spatial and organizational scales. The application of EICAT+ expands our understanding of the consequences of biological invasions and can inform conservation decisions.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Espécies Introduzidas , Ecossistema , Atividades Humanas , Humanos
2.
Ecol Lett ; 27(6): e14465, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38934685

RESUMO

A branch of island biogeography has emerged to explain alien species diversity in the light of the biogeographic and anthropogenic context, yet overlooking the functional and phylogenetic facets. Evaluating alien and native birds of 407 oceanic islands worldwide, we built structural equation models to assess the direct and indirect influence of biotic, geographic, and anthropogenic contexts on alien functional diversity (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). We found that alien taxonomic richness was the main predictor of both diversities. Anthropogenic factors, including colonization pressure, associated with classic biogeographical variables also strongly influenced alien FD and PD. Specifically, habitat modification and human connectivity markedly drove alien FD, especially when controlled by taxonomic richness, whereas the human population size, gross domestic product, and native PD were crucial at explaining alien PD. Our findings suggest that humans not only shape taxonomic richness but also other facets of alien diversity in a complex way.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Aves , Espécies Introduzidas , Ilhas , Filogenia , Animais , Aves/fisiologia , Filogeografia , Humanos , Ecossistema , Efeitos Antropogênicos
3.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17289, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38660818

RESUMO

Freshwater megafish species, such as sturgeons, salmonids, carps, and catfishes, have a maximum reported weight ≥30 kg. Due to their charisma and economic value, they have been widely introduced outside of their native ranges. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the introduction of freshwater megafish and an assessment of their environmental impacts. Of the 134 extant freshwater megafish species, 46% have been introduced to new environments, and of these, 69% have established self-sustaining alien populations. These introductions affect 59% of the world's main basins, with the USA and western Europe being particular hotspots of megafish introductions. The common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is the most widely introduced species. Using the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT and EICAT+) frameworks, we assessed the severity and type of negative and positive impacts posed by alien megafish on native species. Alien megafish caused negative impacts through nine different mechanisms, with predation being the most frequently reported mechanism, followed by herbivory and competition. Moreover, 58% of the alien megafish species with sufficient data to evaluate the severity of their impacts caused declining populations of native species, or worse, extirpations of native species populations. The positive environmental impacts of alien megafish were far less frequently documented. They include biotic interactions that benefit native species, and the provision of trophic resources or habitats. Widely introduced or extensively studied species are more likely to have documented severe impacts on native species. There is a clear trade-off between the economic benefits associated with megafish introductions and the severe adverse impacts they have on native biodiversity. Our study highlights the need for comprehensive risk assessments to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of megafish. More research and long-term monitoring schemes are required to inform management actions to protect biodiversity, particularly in the Global South.


Assuntos
Peixes , Água Doce , Espécies Introduzidas , Animais , Meio Ambiente
4.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(1)2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38273552

RESUMO

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered-our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Extinção Biológica , Animais , Anfíbios , Áreas Alagadas , Mamíferos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção , Biodiversidade
5.
Conserv Biol ; 38(2): e14214, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38051018

RESUMO

The Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is an important tool for biological invasion policy and management and has been adopted as an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) standard to measure the severity of environmental impacts caused by organisms living outside their native ranges. EICAT has already been incorporated into some national and local decision-making procedures, making it a particularly relevant resource for addressing the impact of non-native species. Recently, some of the underlying conceptual principles of EICAT, particularly those related to the use of the precautionary approach, have been challenged. Although still relatively new, guidelines for the application and interpretation of EICAT will be periodically revisited by the IUCN community, based on scientific evidence, to improve the process. Some of the criticisms recently raised are based on subjectively selected assumptions that cannot be generalized and may harm global efforts to manage biological invasions. EICAT adopts a precautionary principle by considering a species' impact history elsewhere because some taxa have traits that can make them inherently more harmful. Furthermore, non-native species are often important drivers of biodiversity loss even in the presence of other pressures. Ignoring the precautionary principle when tackling the impacts of non-native species has led to devastating consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystems, as well as poor management outcomes, and thus to significant economic costs. EICAT is a relevant tool because it supports prioritization and management of non-native species and meeting and monitoring progress toward the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 6.


Uso de la Clasificación de Impacto Ambiental de los Taxones Exóticos de la UICN para la toma de decisiones Resumen La Clasificación de Impacto Ambiental de los Taxones Exóticos (EICAT, en inglés) es una herramienta importante para las políticas y manejo de las invasiones biológicas y ha sido adoptada como un estándar de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para medir la seriedad del impacto ambiental causado por los organismos que viven fuera de su extensión nativa. La EICAT ya ha sido incorporada a algunos procedimientos locales y nacionales de toma de decisiones, lo que la vuelve un recurso particularmente relevante para abordar el impacto de las especies no nativas. Algunos principios conceptuales subyacentes de la EICAT han sido cuestionados recientemente, en particular aquellos relacionados con el uso del principio de precaución. Aunque todavía son relativamente nuevas, las directrices para la aplicación e interpretación de la EICAT tendrán una revisión periódica, basada en evidencia científica, por parte de la comunidad de la UICN para mejorar el proceso. Algunas de las críticas recientes están basadas en suposiciones seleccionadas subjetivamente que no pueden generalizarse y podrían perjudicar los esfuerzos globales para manejar las invasiones biológicas. La EICAT adopta un principio de precaución cuando considera el historial de impacto de una especie en cualquier otro lugar ya que algunos taxones tienen características que podrían volverlos más dañinos. Además, las especies no nativas suelen ser factores de pérdida de bidiversidad, incluso bajo otras presiones. Cuando ignoramos el principio de precaución al abordar el impacto de las especies no nativas, hay consecuencias devastadoras para el bienestar humano, la biodiversidad y los ecosistemas, así como resultados pobres de conservación, y por lo tanto con costos económicos importantes. La EICAT es una herramienta relevante porque respalda la priorización y el manejo de las especies no nativas y ayuda con el cumplimiento y monitoreo del progreso para llegar al objetivo 6 del Marco Mundial de Biodiversidad Kunming­Montreal.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Humanos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Biodiversidade
6.
Ecol Lett ; 26(12): 2066-2076, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37818595

RESUMO

Bird species on islands are strongly impacted by biological invasions, with the Icelandic common eider (Somateria mollissima borealis) being particularly threatened. Down collection by local families in Breiðafjörður, West Iceland, provided long-term datasets of nests from two archipelagos, covering 95 islands over 123 years and 39 islands over 27 years, respectively. Using these exceptional datasets, we found that the arrival of the invasive semi-aquatic American mink (Neogale vison) was a more impactful driver of population dynamics than climate. This invasive predator heavily reduced eider nest numbers by ca. 60% in the Brokey archipelago. In contrast, we detected an apparently adaptive response to the return of the native fox in the Purkey archipelago, with dense nests on islands inaccessible to the fox and no apparent impact on eider populations. This difference might be due to the eiders lacking a joint evolutionary history with the mink and therefore lacking appropriate antipredator responses.


Assuntos
Patos , Raposas , Animais , Aves , Patos/fisiologia , Raposas/fisiologia , Islândia , Dinâmica Populacional
7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(17): 4924-4938, 2023 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37395619

RESUMO

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Animais , Filogenia , Anfíbios , Répteis , Aves
8.
PLoS Biol ; 18(10): e3000935, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33119582

RESUMO

The ongoing digital revolution in the age of big data is opening new research opportunities. Culturomics and iEcology, two emerging research areas based on the analysis of online data resources, can provide novel scientific insights and inform conservation and management efforts. To date, culturomics and iEcology have been applied primarily in the terrestrial realm. Here, we advocate for expanding such applications to the aquatic realm by providing a brief overview of these new approaches and outlining key areas in which culturomics and iEcology are likely to have the highest impact, including the management of protected areas; fisheries; flagship species identification; detection and distribution of threatened, rare, and alien species; assessment of ecosystem status and anthropogenic impacts; and social impact assessment. When deployed in the right context with awareness of potential biases, culturomics and iEcology are ripe for rapid development as low-cost research approaches based on data available from digital sources, with increasingly diverse applications for aquatic ecosystems.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Animais , Animais Selvagens/fisiologia , Viés , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção , Pesqueiros
9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(38): 23643-23651, 2020 09 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32883880

RESUMO

The ecological niche is a key concept for elucidating patterns of species distributions and developing strategies for conserving biodiversity. However, recent times are seeing a widespread debate whether species niches are conserved across space and time (niche conservatism hypothesis). Biological invasions represent a unique opportunity to test this hypothesis in a short time frame at the global scale. We synthesized empirical findings for 434 invasive species from 86 studies to assess whether invasive species conserve their climatic niche between native and introduced ranges. Although the niche conservatism hypothesis was rejected in most studies, highly contrasting conclusions for the same species between and within studies suggest that the dichotomous conclusions of these studies were sensitive to techniques, assessment criteria, or author preferences. We performed a consistent quantitative analysis of the dynamics between native and introduced climatic niches reported by previous studies. Our results show there is very limited niche expansion between native and introduced ranges, and introduced niches occupy a position similar to native niches in the environmental space. These findings support the niche conservatism hypothesis overall. In particular, introduced niches were narrower for terrestrial animals, species introduced more recently, or species with more native occurrences. Niche similarity was lower for aquatic species, species introduced only intentionally or more recently, or species with fewer introduced occurrences. Climatic niche conservatism for invasive species not only increases our confidence in transferring ecological niche models to new ranges but also supports the use of niche models for forecasting species responses to changing climates.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Biológicos , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Clima , Plantas , Dinâmica Populacional
10.
Ecol Lett ; 25(2): 255-263, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34854211

RESUMO

Global freshwater biodiversity is declining dramatically, and meeting the challenges of this crisis requires bold goals and the mobilisation of substantial resources. While the reasons are varied, investments in both research and conservation of freshwater biodiversity lag far behind those in the terrestrial and marine realms. Inspired by a global consultation, we identify 15 pressing priority needs, grouped into five research areas, in an effort to support informed stewardship of freshwater biodiversity. The proposed agenda aims to advance freshwater biodiversity research globally as a critical step in improving coordinated actions towards its sustainable management and conservation.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Biodiversidade , Água Doce
11.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(19): 5667-5682, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35771083

RESUMO

Urbanization is a major contributor to the loss of biodiversity. Its rapid progress is mostly at the expense of natural ecosystems and the species inhabiting them. While some species can adjust quickly and thrive in cities, many others cannot. To support biodiversity conservation and guide management decisions in urban areas, it is important to find robust methods to estimate the urban affinity of species (i.e. their tendency to live in urban areas) and understand how it is associated with their traits. Since previous studies mainly relied on discrete classifications of species' urban affinity, often involving inconsistent assessments or variable parameters, their results were difficult to compare. To address this issue, we developed and evaluated a set of continuous indices that quantify species' urban affinity based on publicly available occurrence data. We investigated the extent to which a species' position along the urban affinity gradient depends on the chosen index and how this choice affects inferences about the relationship between urban affinity and a set of morphological, sensory and functional traits. While these indices are applicable to a wide range of taxonomic groups, we examined their performance using a global set of 356 bat species. As bats vary in sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbances, they provide an interesting case study. We found that different types of indices resulted in different rankings of species on the urban affinity spectrum, but this had little effect on the association of traits with urban affinity. Our results suggest that bat species predisposed to urban life are characterized by low echolocation call frequencies, relatively long call durations, small body size and flexibility in the selection of the roost type. We conclude that simple indices are appropriate and practical, and propose to apply them to more taxa to improve our understanding of how urbanization favours or filters species with particular traits.


Assuntos
Quirópteros , Animais , Biodiversidade , Cidades , Ecossistema , Urbanização
12.
Ecol Appl ; 32(8): e2703, 2022 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35801482

RESUMO

Urbanization is restructuring ecosystems at an unprecedented pace, with complex and profound consequences for life on Earth. One of the hypothesized trajectories of urban ecosystems and species communities is biotic homogenization, possibly leading to very similar species assemblages in cities across the globe. Urbanization can, however, also have the opposite effect: biotic diversification, with cities, at least at the local scale, becoming biologically more diverse, mainly as a consequence of high species introduction rates and habitat diversification. Applying the hierarchy-of-hypotheses approach, we systematically map and structure the comprehensive body of literature on the urban biotic homogenization (UBH) hypothesis, comprising 225 individual studies (i.e., tests of the hypothesis) retrieved from 145 publications. The UBH hypothesis is studied at multiple levels with a multitude of approaches and underlying assumptions. We show that UBH is generally used with two very different connotations: about half of the studies investigated a potential increase in community similarity across cities, whereas the other half investigated biotic homogenization within cities, the latter being supported more frequently. We also found strong research biases: (1) a taxonomic bias towards birds and plants, (2) a bias towards small and medium distances (<5000 km) in comparisons across cities, (3) a dominance of studies substituting space for time versus true temporal studies, (4) a strong focus on terrestrial versus aquatic systems, (5) more extraurban (including periurban) areas than natural or rural ecosystems for comparison to urban systems, (6) a bias towards taxonomic versus functional, phylogenetic, and temporal homogenization, and (7) more studies undertaken in Europe and North America than in other continents. The overall level of empirical support for the UBH hypothesis was mixed, with 55% of the studies reporting supporting evidence. Results significantly differed when a natural/nature reserve, an extraurban, or rural/agricultural area served as reference to infer biotic homogenization, with homogenization being detected least frequently when urban systems were compared to agricultural, i.e., other anthropogenically influenced, study sites. We provide an evidence map and a bibliographic network and identify key references on UBH with the goal to enhance accessibility and orientation for future research on this topic.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Filogenia , Urbanização , Cidades
13.
Bioscience ; 71(4): 337-349, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33867867

RESUMO

In the current era of Big Data, existing synthesis tools such as formal meta-analyses are critical means to handle the deluge of information. However, there is a need for complementary tools that help to (a) organize evidence, (b) organize theory, and (c) closely connect evidence to theory. We present the hierarchy-of-hypotheses (HoH) approach to address these issues. In an HoH, hypotheses are conceptually and visually structured in a hierarchically nested way where the lower branches can be directly connected to empirical results. Used for organizing evidence, this tool allows researchers to conceptually connect empirical results derived through diverse approaches and to reveal under which circumstances hypotheses are applicable. Used for organizing theory, it allows researchers to uncover mechanistic components of hypotheses and previously neglected conceptual connections. In the present article, we offer guidance on how to build an HoH, provide examples from population and evolutionary biology and propose terminological clarifications.

14.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(10): E2264-E2273, 2018 03 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29432147

RESUMO

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.


Assuntos
Espécies Introduzidas/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , História do Século XVI , História do Século XVII , História do Século XVIII , História do Século XIX , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Espécies Introduzidas/história , Modelos Biológicos , Dinâmica Populacional/história
15.
Ecol Lett ; 23(11): 1682-1692, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32881373

RESUMO

The reliability of transferring species distribution models (SDMs) to new ranges and future climates has been widely debated. Biological invasions offer the unique opportunity to evaluate model transferability, as distribution data between species' native and introduced ranges are geographically independent of each other. Here, we performed the first global quantitative synthesis of the spatial transferability of SDMs for 235 invasive species and assessed the association of model transferability with the focal invader, model choice and parameterisation. We found that SDMs had limited spatial transferability overall. However, model transferability was higher for terrestrial endotherms, species introduced from or to the Southern Hemisphere, and species introduced more recently. Model transferability was also positively associated with the number of presences for model calibration and evaluation, respectively, but negatively with the number of predictors. These findings highlight the importance of considering the characteristics of the focal invader, environment and modelling in the application and assessment of SDMs.


Assuntos
Espécies Introduzidas , Modelos Biológicos , Clima , Ecossistema , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
16.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(8): 4401-4417, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32359002

RESUMO

Anthropogenic changes in climate, land use, and disturbance regimes, as well as introductions of non-native species can lead to the transformation of many ecosystems. The resulting novel ecosystems are usually characterized by species assemblages that have not occurred previously in a given area. Quantifying the ecological novelty of communities (i.e., biotic novelty) would enhance the understanding of environmental change. However, quantification remains challenging since current novelty metrics, such as the number and/or proportion of non-native species in a community, fall short of considering both functional and evolutionary aspects of biotic novelty. Here, we propose the Biotic Novelty Index (BNI), an intuitive and flexible multidimensional measure that combines (a) functional differences between native and non-native introduced species with (b) temporal dynamics of species introductions. We show that the BNI is an additive partition of Rao's quadratic entropy, capturing the novel interaction component of the community's functional diversity. Simulations show that the index varies predictably with the relative amount of functional novelty added by recently arrived species, and they illustrate the need to provide an additional standardized version of the index. We present a detailed R code and two applications of the BNI by (a) measuring changes of biotic novelty of dry grassland plant communities along an urbanization gradient in a metropolitan region and (b) determining the biotic novelty of plant species assemblages at a national scale. The results illustrate the applicability of the index across scales and its flexibility in the use of data of different quality. Both case studies revealed strong connections between biotic novelty and increasing urbanization, a measure of abiotic novelty. We conclude that the BNI framework may help building a basis for better understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of global change.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Biodiversidade , Evolução Biológica , Plantas , Urbanização
17.
Glob Chang Biol ; 2020 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33000893

RESUMO

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.

18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(9): 4880-4893, 2020 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32663906

RESUMO

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Espécies Introduzidas , Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Previsões , Humanos
19.
Glob Ecol Biogeogr ; 29(6): 978-991, 2020 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34938151

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since its emergence in the mid-20th century, invasion biology has matured into a productive research field addressing questions of fundamental and applied importance. Not only has the number of empirical studies increased through time, but also has the number of competing, overlapping and, in some cases, contradictory hypotheses about biological invasions. To make these contradictions and redundancies explicit, and to gain insight into the field's current theoretical structure, we developed and applied a Delphi approach to create a consensus network of 39 existing invasion hypotheses. RESULTS: The resulting network was analysed with a link-clustering algorithm that revealed five concept clusters (resource availability, biotic interaction, propagule, trait and Darwin's clusters) representing complementary areas in the theory of invasion biology. The network also displays hypotheses that link two or more clusters, called connecting hypotheses, which are important in determining network structure. The network indicates hypotheses that are logically linked either positively (77 connections of support) or negatively (that is, they contradict each other; 6 connections). SIGNIFICANCE: The network visually synthesizes how invasion biology's predominant hypotheses are conceptually related to each other, and thus, reveals an emergent structure - a conceptual map - that can serve as a navigation tool for scholars, practitioners and students, both inside and outside of the field of invasion biology, and guide the development of a more coherent foundation of theory. Additionally, the outlined approach can be more widely applied to create a conceptual map for the larger fields of ecology and biogeography.

20.
J Anim Ecol ; 89(11): 2531-2541, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32745238

RESUMO

In the Anthropocene, species are faced with drastic challenges due to rapid, human-induced changes, such as habitat destruction, pollution and biological invasions. In the case of invasions, native species may change their behaviour to minimize the impacts they sustain from invasive species, and invaders may also adapt to the conditions in their new environment in order to survive and establish self-sustaining populations. We aimed at giving an overview of which changes in behaviour are studied in invasions, and what is known about the types of behaviour that change, the underlying mechanisms and the speed of behavioural changes. Based on a review of the literature, we identified 191 studies and 360 records (some studies reported multiple records) documenting behavioural changes caused by biological invasions in native (236 records from 148 species) or invasive (124 records from 50 species) animal species. This global dataset, which we make openly available, is not restricted to particular taxonomic groups. We found a mild taxonomic bias in the literature towards mammals, birds and insects. In line with the enemy release hypothesis, native species changed their anti-predator behaviour more frequently than invasive species. Rates of behavioural change were evenly distributed across taxa, but not across the types of behaviour. Our findings may help to better understand the role of behaviour in biological invasions as well as temporal changes in both population densities and traits of invasive species, and of native species affected by them.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Animais , Comportamento Animal , Insetos , Densidade Demográfica
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