Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research. RESULTS: Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children. CONCLUSIONS: For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

MetaBayesDTA: codeless Bayesian meta-analysis of test accuracy, with or without a gold standard.

BACKGROUND: The statistical models developed for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies require specialised knowledge to implement. This is especially true since recent guidelines, such as those in Version 2 of the Cochrane Handbook of Systematic Reviews of Diagnostic Test Accuracy, advocate more sophisticated methods than previously. This paper describes a web-based application - MetaBayesDTA - that makes many advanced analysis methods in this area more accessible. RESULTS: We created the app using R, the Shiny package and Stan. It allows for a broad array of analyses based on the bivariate model including extensions for subgroup analysis, meta-regression and comparative test accuracy evaluation. It also conducts analyses not assuming a perfect reference standard, including allowing for the use of different reference tests. CONCLUSIONS: Due to its user-friendliness and broad array of features, MetaBayesDTA should appeal to researchers with varying levels of expertise. We anticipate that the application will encourage higher levels of uptake of more advanced methods, which ultimately should improve the quality of test accuracy reviews.

Diagnostic accuracy of 1p/19q codeletion tests in oligodendroglioma: A comprehensive meta-analysis based on a Cochrane systematic review.

Codeletion of chromosomal arms 1p and 19q, in conjunction with a mutation in the isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 or 2 gene, is the molecular diagnostic criterion for oligodendroglioma, IDH mutant and 1p/19q codeleted. 1p/19q codeletion is a diagnostic marker and allows prognostication and prediction of the best drug response within IDH-mutant tumours. We performed a Cochrane review and simple economic analysis to establish the most sensitive, specific and cost-effective techniques for determining 1p/19q codeletion status. Fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based loss of heterozygosity (LOH) test methods were considered as reference standard. Most techniques (FISH, chromogenic in situ hybridisation [CISH], PCR, real-time PCR, multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification [MLPA], single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] array, comparative genomic hybridisation [CGH], array CGH, next-generation sequencing [NGS], mass spectrometry and NanoString) showed good sensitivity (few false negatives) for detection of 1p/19q codeletions in glioma, irrespective of whether FISH or PCR-based LOH was used as the reference standard. Both NGS and SNP array had a high specificity (fewer false positives) for 1p/19q codeletion when considered against FISH as the reference standard. Our findings suggest that G banding is not a suitable test for 1p/19q analysis. Within these limits, considering cost per diagnosis and using FISH as a reference, MLPA was marginally more cost-effective than other tests, although these economic analyses were limited by the range of available parameters, time horizon and data from multiple healthcare organisations.

Diagnostic test accuracy and cost-effectiveness of tests for codeletion of chromosomal arms 1p and 19q in people with glioma.

BACKGROUND: Complete deletion of both the short arm of chromosome 1 (1p) and the long arm of chromosome 19 (19q), known as 1p/19q codeletion, is a mutation that can occur in gliomas. It occurs in a type of glioma known as oligodendroglioma and its higher grade counterpart known as anaplastic oligodendroglioma. Detection of 1p/19q codeletion in gliomas is important because, together with another mutation in an enzyme known as isocitrate dehydrogenase, it is needed to make the diagnosis of an oligodendroglioma. Presence of 1p/19q codeletion also informs patient prognosis and prediction of the best drug treatment. The main two tests in use are fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based loss of heterozygosity (LOH) assays (also known as PCR-based short tandem repeat or microsatellite analysis). Many other tests are available. None of the tests is perfect, although PCR-based LOH is expected to have very high sensitivity. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the sensitivity and specificity and cost-effectiveness of different deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA)-based techniques for determining 1p/19q codeletion status in glioma. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and BIOSIS up to July 2019. There were no restrictions based on language or date of publication. We sought economic evaluation studies from the results of this search and using the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included cross-sectional studies in adults with glioma or any subtype of glioma, presenting raw data or cross-tabulations of two or more DNA-based tests for 1p/19q codeletion. We also sought economic evaluations of these tests. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We followed procedures outlined in the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews. Two review authors independently screened titles/abstracts/full texts, performed data extraction, and undertook applicability and risk of bias assessments using QUADAS-2. Meta-analyses used the hierarchical summary ROC model to estimate and compare test accuracy. We used FISH and PCR-based LOH as alternate reference standards to examine how tests compared with those in common use, and conducted a latent class analysis comparing FISH and PCR-based LOH. We constructed an economic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness. MAIN RESULTS: We included 53 studies examining: PCR-based LOH, FISH, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array, next-generation sequencing (NGS), comparative genomic hybridisation (CGH), array comparative genomic hybridisation (aCGH), multiplex-ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA), real-time PCR, chromogenic in situ hybridisation (CISH), mass spectrometry (MS), restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, G-banding, methylation array and NanoString. Risk of bias was low for only one study; most gave us concerns about how patients were selected or about missing data. We had applicability concerns about many of the studies because only patients with specific subtypes of glioma were included. 1520 participants contributed to analyses using FISH as the reference, 1304 participants to analyses involving PCR-based LOH as the reference and 262 participants to analyses of comparisons between methods from studies not including FISH or PCR-based LOH. Most evidence was available for comparison of FISH with PCR-based LOH (15 studies, 915 participants): PCR-based LOH detected 94% of FISH-determined codeletions (95% credible interval (CrI) 83% to 98%) and FISH detected 91% of codeletions determined by PCR-based LOH (CrI 78% to 97%). Of tumours determined not to have a deletion by FISH, 94% (CrI 87% to 98%) had a deletion detected by PCR-based LOH, and of those determined not to have a deletion by PCR-based LOH, 96% (CrI 90% to 99%) had a deletion detected by FISH. The latent class analysis suggested that PCR-based LOH may be slightly more accurate than FISH. Most other techniques appeared to have high sensitivity (i.e. produced few false-negative results) for detection of 1p/19q codeletion when either FISH or PCR-based LOH was considered as the reference standard, although there was limited evidence. There was some indication of differences in specificity (false-positive rate) with some techniques. Both NGS and SNP array had high specificity when considered against FISH as the reference standard (NGS: 6 studies, 243 participants; SNP: 6 studies, 111 participants), although we rated certainty in the evidence as low or very low. NGS and SNP array also had high specificity when PCR-based LOH was considered the reference standard, although with much more uncertainty as these results were based on fewer studies (just one study with 49 participants for NGS and two studies with 33 participants for SNP array). G-banding had low sensitivity and specificity when PCR-based LOH was the reference standard. Although MS had very high sensitivity and specificity when both FISH and PCR-based LOH were considered the reference standard, these results were based on only one study with a small number of participants. Real-time PCR also showed high specificity with FISH as a reference standard, although there were only two studies including 40 participants. We found no relevant economic evaluations. Our economic model using FISH as the reference standard suggested that the resource-optimising test depends on which measure of diagnostic accuracy is most important. With FISH as the reference standard, MLPA is likely to be cost-effective if society was willing to pay GBP 1000 or less for a true positive detected. However, as the value placed on a true positive increased, CISH was most cost-effective. Findings differed when the outcome measure changed to either true negative detected or correct diagnosis. When PCR-based LOH was used as the reference standard, MLPA was likely to be cost-effective for all measures of diagnostic accuracy at lower threshold values for willingness to pay. However, as the threshold values increased, none of the tests were clearly more likely to be considered cost-effective. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In our review, most techniques (except G-banding) appeared to have good sensitivity (few false negatives) for detection of 1p/19q codeletions in glioma against both FISH and PCR-based LOH as a reference standard. However, we judged the certainty of the evidence low or very low for all the tests. There are possible differences in specificity, with both NGS and SNP array having high specificity (fewer false positives) for 1p/19q codeletion when considered against FISH as the reference standard. The economic analysis should be interpreted with caution due to the small number of studies.

QUADAS-C: A Tool for Assessing Risk of Bias in Comparative Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

Comparative diagnostic test accuracy studies assess and compare the accuracy of 2 or more tests in the same study. Although these studies have the potential to yield reliable evidence regarding comparative accuracy, shortcomings in the design, conduct, and analysis may bias their results. The currently recommended quality assessment tool for diagnostic test accuracy studies, QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2), is not designed for the assessment of test comparisons. The QUADAS-C (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-Comparative) tool was developed as an extension of QUADAS-2 to assess the risk of bias in comparative diagnostic test accuracy studies. Through a 4-round Delphi study involving 24 international experts in test evaluation and a face-to-face consensus meeting, an initial version of the tool was developed that was revised and finalized following a pilot study among potential users. The QUADAS-C tool retains the same 4-domain structure of QUADAS-2 (Patient Selection, Index Test, Reference Standard, and Flow and Timing) and comprises additional questions to each QUADAS-2 domain. A risk-of-bias judgment for comparative accuracy requires a risk-of-bias judgment for the accuracy of each test (resulting from QUADAS-2) and additional criteria specific to test comparisons. Examples of such additional criteria include whether participants either received all index tests or were randomly assigned to index tests, and whether index tests were interpreted with blinding to the results of other index tests. The QUADAS-C tool will be useful for systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy addressing comparative questions. Furthermore, researchers may use this tool to identify and avoid risk of bias when designing a comparative diagnostic test accuracy study.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity: A mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in the United Kingdom, and reliably measuring the impact on quality of life and the total healthcare cost from obesity is key to informing the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target obesity, and determining healthcare funding. Current methods for estimating cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity may be subject to confounding and reverse causation. The aim of this study is to apply a new approach using mendelian randomisation for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target body mass index (BMI), which may be less affected by confounding and reverse causation than previous approaches. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated health-related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and both primary and secondary healthcare costs for 310,913 men and women of white British ancestry aged between 39 and 72 years in UK Biobank between recruitment (2006 to 2010) and 31 March 2017. We then estimated the causal effect of differences in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs using mendelian randomisation. For this, we used instrumental variable regression with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI, derived using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BMI, with age, sex, recruitment centre, and 40 genetic principal components as covariables to estimate the effect of a unit increase in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs. Finally, we used simulations to estimate the likely effect on BMI of policy relevant interventions for BMI, then used the mendelian randomisation estimates to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. A unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by 0.65% of a QALY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49% to 0.81%) per year and increased annual total healthcare costs by £42.23 (95% CI: £32.95 to £51.51) per person. When considering only health conditions usually considered in previous cost-effectiveness modelling studies (cancer, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes), we estimated that a unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by only 0.16% of a QALY (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.22%) per year. We estimated that both laparoscopic bariatric surgery among individuals with BMI greater than 35 kg/m2, and restricting volume promotions for high fat, salt, and sugar products, would increase QALYs and decrease total healthcare costs, with net monetary benefits (at £20,000 per QALY) of £13,936 (95% CI: £8,112 to £20,658) per person over 20 years, and £546 million (95% CI: £435 million to £671 million) in total per year, respectively. The main limitations of this approach are that mendelian randomisation relies on assumptions that cannot be proven, including the absence of directional pleiotropy, and that genotypes are independent of confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Mendelian randomisation can be used to estimate the impact of interventions on quality of life and healthcare costs. We observed that the effect of increasing BMI on health-related quality of life is much larger when accounting for 240 chronic health conditions, compared with only a limited selection. This means that previous cost-effectiveness studies have likely underestimated the effect of BMI on quality of life and, therefore, the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce BMI.

Extended lumbar drainage in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy.

BACKGROUND: When appropriately selected, a high proportion of patients with suspected idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) will respond to cerebrospinal fluid diversion with a shunt. Extended lumbar drainage (ELD) is regarded as the most accurate test for this condition, however, varying estimates of its accuracy are found in the current literature. Here, we review the literature in order to provide summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive- and negative predictive value for this test through meta-analysis of suitably rigorous studies. METHODS: Studies involving a population of NPH patients with predominantly idiopathic aetiology (>80%) in which the intention of the study was to shunt patients regardless of the outcome of ELD were included in the review. Various literature databases were searched to identify diagnostic test accuracy studies addressing ELD in the diagnosis of iNPH. Those studies passing screening and eligibility were assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool and data extracted for bivariate random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Four small studies were identified. They showed disparate results concerning diagnostic test accuracy. The summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity were 94% (CI 41-100%) and 85% (CI 33-100%), respectively. The summary estimates of positive and negative predictive value were both 90% (CIs 65-100% and 48-100%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Large, rigorous studies addressing the diagnostic accuracy of ELD are lacking, and little robust evidence exists to support the use of ELD in diagnostic algorithms for iNPH. Therefore, a large cohort study, or ideally an RCT, is needed to determine best practice in selecting patients for shunt surgery.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies with multiple thresholds: Comparison of different approaches.

Methods for standard meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies are well established and understood. For the more complex case in which studies report test accuracy across multiple thresholds, several approaches have recently been proposed. These are based on similar ideas, but make different assumptions. In this article, we apply four different approaches to data from a recent systematic review in the area of nephrology and compare the results. The four approaches use: a linear mixed effects model, a Bayesian multinomial random effects model, a time-to-event model and a nonparametric model, respectively. In the case study data, the accuracy of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin for the diagnosis of acute kidney injury was assessed in different scenarios, with sensitivity and specificity estimates available for three thresholds in each primary study. All approaches led to plausible and mostly similar summary results. However, we found considerable differences in results for some scenarios, for example, differences in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of up to 0.13. The Bayesian approach tended to lead to the highest values of the AUC, and the nonparametric approach tended to produce the lowest values across the different scenarios. Though we recommend using these approaches, our findings motivate the need for a simulation study to explore optimal choice of method in various scenarios.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the associations between body mass index, prostate cancer, advanced prostate cancer, and prostate-specific antigen.

PURPOSE: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and prostate cancer remains unclear. However, there is an inverse association between BMI and prostate-specific antigen (PSA), used for prostate cancer screening. We conducted this review to estimate the associations between BMI and (1) prostate cancer, (2) advanced prostate cancer, and (3) PSA. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for studies until 02 October 2017 and obtained individual participant data from four studies. In total, 78 studies were identified for the association between BMI and prostate cancer, 21 for BMI and advanced prostate cancer, and 35 for BMI and PSA. We performed random-effects meta-analysis of linear associations of log-PSA and prostate cancer with BMI and, to examine potential non-linearity, of associations between categories of BMI and each outcome. RESULTS: In the meta-analyses with continuous BMI, a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a percentage change in PSA of - 5.88% (95% CI - 6.87 to - 4.87). Using BMI categories, compared to normal weight men the PSA levels of overweight men were 3.43% lower (95% CI - 5.57 to - 1.23), and obese men were 12.9% lower (95% CI - 15.2 to - 10.7). Prostate cancer and advanced prostate cancer analyses showed little or no evidence associations. CONCLUSION: There is little or no evidence of an association between BMI and risk of prostate cancer or advanced prostate cancer, and strong evidence of an inverse and non-linear association between BMI and PSA. The association between BMI and prostate cancer is likely biased if missed diagnoses are not considered.

Prevention of suicide and reduction of self-harm among people with substance use disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: People with substance use disorder (SUD) are at significantly greater risk of suicide compared with the general population. In recent years the number of suicides resulting from drug poisoning in England and Wales has increased. We sought to identify and evaluate the effect of interventions to prevent suicide or reduce self-harm among people with SUD. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions for people with SUD that included suicide or self-harm-related primary outcomes. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PsycINFO, PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from inception until 13th January 2019. Studies were assessed for bias using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. A random effects meta-analysis of standardised mean differences (SMD) was conducted. RESULTS: We identified six RCTs from four countries (Australia, Iran, the United States of America and the United Kingdom) comprising 468 participants in total. All but one study investigated psychosocial interventions. On average across studies there was weak evidence of a small positive effect of interventions on suicide or self-harm outcomes (d=-0.20, 95% CI=-0.39-0.00). LIMITATIONS: Studies were heterogeneous in terms of population, intervention, controls and outcome. There were some concerns regarding bias for all trials. All trials were liable to type II error. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence is currently lacking regarding the effectiveness of interventions to prevent suicide and reduce self-harm amongst people with SUD.

Interventions for the management of malignant pleural effusions: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is a common problem for people with cancer and usually associated with considerable breathlessness. A number of treatment options are available to manage the uncontrolled accumulation of pleural fluid, including administration of a pleurodesis agent (via a chest tube or thoracoscopy) or placement of an indwelling pleural catheter (IPC). This is an update of a review published in Issue 5, 2016, which replaced the original, published in 2004. OBJECTIVES: To ascertain the optimal management strategy for adults with malignant pleural effusion in terms of pleurodesis success and to quantify differences in patient-reported outcomes and adverse effects between interventions. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid) and three other databases to June 2019. We screened reference lists from other relevant publications and searched trial registries. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials of intrapleural interventions for adults with symptomatic MPE, comparing types of sclerosant, mode of administration and IPC use. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data on study design, characteristics, outcome measures, potential effect modifiers and risk of bias. The primary outcome was pleurodesis failure rate. Secondary outcomes were adverse events, patient-reported breathlessness control, quality of life, cost, mortality, survival, duration of inpatient stay and patient acceptability. We performed network meta-analyses of primary outcome data and secondary outcomes with enough data. We also performed pair-wise meta-analyses of direct comparison data. If we deemed interventions not jointly randomisable, or we found insufficient available data, we reported results by narrative synthesis. For the primary outcome, we performed sensitivity analyses to explore potential causes of heterogeneity and to evaluate pleurodesis agents administered via a chest tube only. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 80 randomised trials (18 new), including 5507 participants. We found all except three studies at high or unclear risk of bias for at least one domain. Due to the nature of the interventions, most studies were unblinded. Pleurodesis failure rate We included 55 studies of 21 interventions in the primary network meta-analysis. We estimated the rank of each intervention's effectiveness. Talc slurry (ranked 6, 95% credible interval (Cr-I) 3 to 10)  is an effective pleurodesis agent (moderate certainty for comparison with placebo) and may result in fewer pleurodesis failures than bleomycin and doxycycline (bleomycin versus talc slurry: odds ratio (OR) 2.24, 95% Cr-I 1.10 to 4.68; low certainty; ranked 11, 95% Cr-I 7 to 15; doxycycline versus talc slurry: OR 2.51, 95% Cr-I 0.81 to 8.40; low certainty; ranked 12, 95% Cr-I 5 to 18). There is little evidence of a difference between the pleurodesis failure rate of talc poudrage and talc slurry (OR 0.50, 95% Cr-I 0.21 to 1.02; moderate certainty). Evidence for any difference was further reduced when restricting analysis to studies at low risk of bias (defined as maximum one high risk domain in the risk of bias assessment) (pleurodesis failure talc poudrage versus talc slurry: OR 0.78, 95% Cr-I 0.16 to 2.08). IPCs without daily drainage are probably less effective at obtaining a definitive pleurodesis (cessation of pleural fluid drainage facilitating IPC removal) than talc slurry (OR 7.60, 95% Cr-I 2.96 to 20.47; rank = 18/21, 95% Cr-I 13 to 21; moderate certainty). Daily IPC drainage or instillation of talc slurry via IPC are likely to reduce pleurodesis failure rates. Adverse effects Adverse effects were inconsistently reported. We performed network meta-analyses for the risk of procedure-related fever and pain. The evidence for risk of developing fever was of low certainty, but suggested there may be little difference between interventions relative to talc slurry (talc poudrage: OR 0.89, 95% Cr-I 0.11 to 6.67; bleomycin: OR 2.33, 95% Cr-I 0.45 to 12.50; IPCs: OR 0.41, 95% Cr-I 0.00 to 50.00; doxycycline: OR 0.85, 95% Cr-I 0.05 to 14.29). Evidence also suggested there may be little difference between interventions in the risk of developing procedure-related pain, relative to talc slurry (talc poudrage: OR 1.26, 95% Cr-I 0.45 to 6.04; very-low certainty; bleomycin: OR 2.85, 95% Cr-I 0.78 to 11.53; low certainty; IPCs: OR 1.30, 95% Cr-I 0.29 to 5.87; low certainty; doxycycline: OR 3.35, 95% Cr-I 0.64 to 19.72; low certainty). Patient-reported control of breathlessness Pair-wise meta-analysis suggests there is likely no difference in breathlessness control, relative to talc slurry, of talc poudrage ((mean difference (MD) 4.00 mm, 95% CI -6.26 to 14.26) on a 100 mm visual analogue scale for breathlessness; studies = 1; participants = 184; moderate certainty) and IPCs without daily drainage (MD -6.12 mm, 95% CI -16.32 to 4.08; studies = 2; participants = 160; low certainty). Overall mortality There may be little difference between interventions when compared to talc slurry (bleomycin and IPC without daily drainage; low certainty) but evidence is uncertain for talc poudrage and doxycycline. Patient acceptability Pair-wise meta-analysis demonstrated that IPCs probably result in a reduced risk of requiring a repeat invasive pleural intervention (OR 0.25, 95% Cr-I 0.13 to 0.48; moderate certainty) relative to talc slurry. There is likely little difference in the risk of repeat invasive pleural intervention with talc poudrage relative to talc slurry (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.56; moderate certainty). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available evidence, talc poudrage and talc slurry are effective methods for achieving a pleurodesis, with lower failure rates than a number of other commonly used interventions. IPCs provide an alternative approach; whilst associated with inferior definitive pleurodesis rates, comparable control of breathlessness can probably be achieved, with a lower risk of requiring repeat invasive pleural intervention.  Local availability, global experience of agents and adverse events (which may not be identified in randomised trials) and patient preference must be considered when selecting an intervention. Further research is required to delineate the roles of different treatments according to patient characteristics, such as presence of trapped lung. Greater attention to patient-centred outcomes, including breathlessness, quality of life and patient preference is essential to inform clinical decision-making. Careful consideration to minimise the risk of bias and standardise outcome measures is essential for future trial design.

Quantifying how diagnostic test accuracy depends on threshold in a meta-analysis.

Tests for disease often produce a continuous measure, such as the concentration of some biomarker in a blood sample. In clinical practice, a threshold C is selected such that results, say, greater than C are declared positive and those less than C negative. Measures of test accuracy such as sensitivity and specificity depend crucially on C, and the optimal value of this threshold is usually a key question for clinical practice. Standard methods for meta-analysis of test accuracy (i) do not provide summary estimates of accuracy at each threshold, precluding selection of the optimal threshold, and furthermore, (ii) do not make use of all available data. We describe a multinomial meta-analysis model that can take any number of pairs of sensitivity and specificity from each study and explicitly quantifies how accuracy depends on C. Our model assumes that some prespecified or Box-Cox transformation of test results in the diseased and disease-free populations has a logistic distribution. The Box-Cox transformation parameter can be estimated from the data, allowing for a flexible range of underlying distributions. We parameterise in terms of the means and scale parameters of the two logistic distributions. In addition to credible intervals for the pooled sensitivity and specificity across all thresholds, we produce prediction intervals, allowing for between-study heterogeneity in all parameters. We demonstrate the model using two case study meta-analyses, examining the accuracy of tests for acute heart failure and preeclampsia. We show how the model can be extended to explore reasons for heterogeneity using study-level covariates.

Association Between Risk-of-Bias Assessments and Results of Randomized Trials in Cochrane Reviews: The ROBES Meta-Epidemiologic Study.

Flaws in the design of randomized trials may bias intervention effect estimates and increase between-trial heterogeneity. Empirical evidence suggests that these problems are greatest for subjectively assessed outcomes. For the Risk of Bias in Evidence Synthesis (ROBES) Study, we extracted risk-of-bias judgements (for sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding, and incomplete data) from a large collection of meta-analyses published in the Cochrane Library (issue 4; April 2011). We categorized outcome measures as mortality, other objective outcome, or subjective outcome, and we estimated associations of bias judgements with intervention effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical models. Among 2,443 randomized trials in 228 meta-analyses, intervention effect estimates were, on average, exaggerated in trials with high or unclear (versus low) risk-of-bias judgements for sequence generation (ratio of odds ratios (ROR) = 0.91, 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.86, 0.98), allocation concealment (ROR = 0.92, 95% CrI: 0.86, 0.98), and blinding (ROR = 0.87, 95% CrI: 0.80, 0.93). In contrast to previous work, we did not observe consistently different bias for subjective outcomes compared with mortality. However, we found an increase in between-trial heterogeneity associated with lack of blinding in meta-analyses with subjective outcomes. Inconsistency in criteria for risk-of-bias judgements applied by individual reviewers is a likely limitation of routinely collected bias assessments. Inadequate randomization and lack of blinding may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates in randomized trials.

Use of a random effects meta-analysis in the design and analysis of a new clinical trial.

In designing a randomized controlled trial, it has been argued that trialists should consider existing evidence about the likely intervention effect. One approach is to form a prior distribution for the intervention effect based on a meta-analysis of previous studies and then power the trial on its ability to affect the posterior distribution in a Bayesian analysis. Alternatively, methods have been proposed to calculate the power of the trial to influence the "pooled" estimate in an updated meta-analysis. These two approaches can give very different results if the existing evidence is heterogeneous, summarised using a random effects meta-analysis. We argue that the random effects mean will rarely represent the trialist's target parameter, and so, it will rarely be appropriate to power a trial based on its impact upon the random effects mean. Furthermore, the random effects mean will not generally provide an appropriate prior distribution. More appropriate alternatives include the predictive distribution and shrinkage estimate for the most similar study. Consideration of the impact of the trial on the entire random effects distribution might sometimes be appropriate. We describe how beliefs about likely sources of heterogeneity have implications for how the previous evidence should be used and can have a profound impact on the expected power of the new trial. We conclude that the likely causes of heterogeneity among existing studies need careful consideration. In the absence of explanations for heterogeneity, we suggest using the predictive distribution from the meta-analysis as the basis for a prior distribution for the intervention effect.

Cochrane corner: interventions for the management of malignant pleural effusions.

Optimal management of symptomatic malignant pleural effusions remains an important issue as it affects a significant number of patients each year internationally. The overall survival remains poor, necessitating an evidence based treatment strategy that provides the best outcomes for individual patients. This paper summarises the results of the recently published Cochrane review on interventions in malignant pleural effusions.

Interventions for the management of malignant pleural effusions: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is a common problem for people with cancer as a result of malignant infiltration of the pleura. It is usually associated with considerable breathlessness. A number of treatment options are available to manage the uncontrolled accumulation of pleural fluid including administration of a pleurodesis agent (either via a chest tube or at thoracoscopy) or indwelling pleural catheter insertion. OBJECTIVES: To ascertain the optimal management strategy for adults with malignant pleural effusion in terms of pleurodesis success. Additionally, to quantify differences in patient-reported outcomes and adverse effects between management strategies. SEARCH METHODS: We searched The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE; EBSCO CINAHL; SCI-EXPANDED and SSCI (ISI Web of Science) to April 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials of intrapleural interventions for adults with symptomatic MPE in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data on study design, study characteristics, outcome measures, potential effect modifiers and risk of bias.The primary outcome measure was pleurodesis failure rate. Secondary outcome measures were adverse effects and complications, patient-reported control of breathlessness, quality of life, cost, mortality, duration of inpatient stay and patient acceptability.We performed network meta-analysis with random effects to analyse the primary outcome data and those secondary outcomes with enough data. We also performed pair-wise random-effects meta-analyses of direct comparison data. If interventions were not deemed jointly randomisable, or insufficient data were available, we reported the results by narrative synthesis. We performed sensitivity analyses to explore heterogeneity and to evaluate only those pleurodesis agents administered via a chest tube at the bedside. MAIN RESULTS: Of the 1888 records identified, 62 randomised trials, including a total of 3428 patients, were eligible for inclusion. All studies were at high or uncertain risk of bias for at least one domain.Network meta-analysis evaluating the rate of pleurodesis failure, suggested talc poudrage to be a highly effective method (ranked second of 16 (95% credible interval (Cr-I) 1 to 5)) and provided evidence that it resulted in fewer pleurodesis failures than eight other methods. The estimated ranks of other commonly used agents were: talc slurry (fourth; 95% Cr-I 2 to 8), mepacrine (fourth; 95% Cr-I 1 to 10), iodine (fifth; 95% Cr-I 1 to 12), bleomycin (eighth; 95% Cr-I 5 to 11) and doxycyline (tenth; 95% Cr-I 4 to 15). The estimates were imprecise as evidenced by the wide credible intervals and both high statistical and clinical heterogeneity.Most of the secondary outcomes, including adverse events, were inconsistently reported by the included studies and the methods used to describe them varied widely. Hence the majority of the secondary outcomes were reported descriptively in this review. We obtained sufficient data to perform network meta-analysis for the most commonly reported adverse events: pain, fever and mortality. The fever network was imprecise and showed substantial heterogeneity, but suggested placebo caused the least fever (ranked first of 11 (95% Cr-I 1 to 7)) and mepacrine and Corynebacterium parvum (C. parvum) appeared to be associated with the most fever (ranked tenth (95% Cr-I 6 to 11) and eleventh (95% Cr-I 7 to 11) respectively). No differences between interventions were revealed by the network meta-analysis of the pain data. The only potential difference in mortality identified in the mortality network was that those receiving tetracycline appeared to have a longer survival than those receiving mitoxantrone (OR 0.16 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.03 to 0.72)). Indwelling pleural catheters were examined in two randomised studies, both of which reported improved breathlessness when compared to talc slurry pleurodesis, despite lower pleurodesis success rates.The risk of bias in a number of the included studies was substantial, for example the vast majority of studies were unblinded, and the methods used for sequence generation and allocation concealment were often unclear. Overall, however, the risk of bias for all studies was moderate. We have not reported the GRADE quality of evidence for the outcomes, as the role of GRADE is not well established in the context of Network Meta-analysis (NMA). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available evidence, talc poudrage is a more effective pleurodesis method in MPE than a number of other frequently used methods, including tetracycline and bleomycin. However further data are required to definitively confirm whether it is more effective than certain other commonly used interventions such as talc slurry and doxycycline, particularly in view of the high statistical and clinical heterogeneity within the network and the high risk of bias of many of the included studies. Based on the strength of the evidence from both direct and indirect comparisons of randomised data of sclerosants administered at the bedside, there is no evidence to suggest large differences between the other highly effective methods (talc slurry, mepacrine, iodine and C. parvum). However, local availability, global experience of these agents and their adverse events, which may not be identified in randomised trials, must also be considered when selecting a sclerosant. Further research is required to delineate the roles of different treatments according to patient characteristics (e.g. according to their prognosis or presence of trapped lung) and to explore patient-centred outcomes, such as breathlessness and quality of life, in more detail. Careful consideration to minimise the risk of bias and standardise outcome measures is essential for future trial design.

Recapture or precapture? Fallibility of standard capture-recapture methods in the presence of referrals between sources.

Capture-recapture methods, largely developed in ecology, are now commonly used in epidemiology to adjust for incomplete registries and to estimate the size of difficult-to-reach populations such as problem drug users. Overlapping lists of individuals in the target population, taken from administrative data sources, are considered analogous to overlapping "captures" of animals. Log-linear models, incorporating interaction terms to account for dependencies between sources, are used to predict the number of unobserved individuals and, hence, the total population size. A standard assumption to ensure parameter identifiability is that the highest-order interaction term is 0. We demonstrate that, when individuals are referred directly between sources, this assumption will often be violated, and the standard modeling approach may lead to seriously biased estimates. We refer to such individuals as having been "precaptured," rather than truly recaptured. Although sometimes an alternative identifiable log-linear model could accommodate the referral structure, this will not always be the case. Further, multiple plausible models may fit the data equally well but provide widely varying estimates of the population size. We demonstrate an alternative modeling approach, based on an interpretable parameterization and driven by careful consideration of the relationships between the sources, and we make recommendations for capture-recapture in practice.

The WHO Health Promoting School framework for improving the health and well-being of students and their academic achievement.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's (WHO's) Health Promoting Schools (HPS) framework is an holistic, settings-based approach to promoting health and educational attainment in school. The effectiveness of this approach has not been previously rigorously reviewed. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of the Health Promoting Schools (HPS) framework in improving the health and well-being of students and their academic achievement. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following electronic databases in January 2011 and again in March and April 2013: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Campbell Library, ASSIA, BiblioMap, CAB Abstracts, IBSS, Social Science Citation Index, Sociological Abstracts, TRoPHI, Global Health Database, SIGLE, Australian Education Index, British Education Index, Education Resources Information Centre, Database of Education Research, Dissertation Express, Index to Theses in Great Britain and Ireland, ClinicalTrials.gov, Current controlled trials, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We also searched relevant websites, handsearched reference lists, and used citation tracking to identify other relevant articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included cluster-randomised controlled trials where randomisation took place at the level of school, district or other geographical area. Participants were children and young people aged four to 18 years, attending schools or colleges. In this review, we define HPS interventions as comprising the following three elements: input to the curriculum; changes to the school's ethos or environment or both; and engagement with families or communities, or both. We compared this intervention against schools that implemented either no intervention or continued with their usual practice, or any programme that included just one or two of the above mentioned HPS elements. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors identified relevant trials, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in the trials. We grouped different types of interventions according to the health topic targeted or the approach used, or both. Where data permitted, we performed random-effects meta-analyses to provide a summary of results across studies. MAIN RESULTS: We included 67 eligible cluster trials, randomising 1443 schools or districts. This is made up of 1345 schools and 98 districts. The studies tackled a range of health issues: physical activity (4), nutrition (12), physical activity and nutrition combined (18), bullying (7), tobacco (5), alcohol (2), sexual health (2), violence (2), mental health (2), hand-washing (2), multiple risk behaviours (7), cycle-helmet use (1), eating disorders (1), sun protection (1), and oral health (1). The quality of evidence overall was low to moderate as determined by the GRADE approach. 'Risk of bias' assessments identified methodological limitations, including heavy reliance on self-reported data and high attrition rates for some studies. In addition, there was a lack of long-term follow-up data for most studies.We found positive effects for some interventions for: body mass index (BMI), physical activity, physical fitness, fruit and vegetable intake, tobacco use, and being bullied. Intervention effects were generally small but have the potential to produce public health benefits at the population level. We found little evidence of effectiveness for standardised body mass index (zBMI) and no evidence of effectiveness for fat intake, alcohol use, drug use, mental health, violence and bullying others; however, only a small number of studies focused on these latter outcomes. It was not possible to meta-analyse data on other health outcomes due to lack of data. Few studies provided details on adverse events or outcomes related to the interventions. In addition, few studies included any academic, attendance or school-related outcomes. We therefore cannot draw any clear conclusions as to the effectiveness of this approach for improving academic achievement. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The results of this review provide evidence for the effectiveness of some interventions based on the HPS framework for improving certain health outcomes but not others. More well-designed research is required to establish the effectiveness of this approach for other health topics and academic achievement.