A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Predictive value of sarcopenia components for all-cause mortality: findings from population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Low grip strength and gait speed are associated with mortality. However, investigation of the additional mortality risk explained by these measures, over and above other factors, is limited. AIM: We examined whether grip strength and gait speed improve discriminative capacity for mortality over and above more readily obtainable clinical risk factors. METHODS: Participants from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, and the Hertfordshire Cohort Study were analysed. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and usual gait speed over 2.4-6 m. Verified deaths were recorded. Associations between sarcopenia components and mortality were examined using Cox regression with cohort as a random effect; discriminative capacity was assessed using Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index). RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of participants (n = 8362) was 73.8(5.1) years; 5231(62.6%) died during a median follow-up time of 13.3 years. Grip strength (hazard ratio (95% CI) per SD decrease: 1.14 (1.10,1.19)) and gait speed (1.21 (1.17,1.26)), but not ALM index (1.01 (0.95,1.06)), were associated with mortality in mutually-adjusted models after accounting for age, sex, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, ethnicity, education, history of fractures and falls, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), self-rated health, cognitive function and number of comorbidities. However, a model containing only age and sex as exposures gave a C-index (95% CI) of 0.65(0.64,0.66), which only increased to 0.67(0.67,0.68) after inclusion of grip strength and gait speed. CONCLUSIONS: Grip strength and gait speed may generate only modest adjunctive risk information for mortality compared with other more readily obtainable risk factors.

Time trends in proximal humeral fractures from 1944 to 2020 - A cohort study in Malmö, Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Most studies infer increasing incidence of proximal humeral fractures (PHF) from the 1950´s until the 1990´s. Recent time trends are less clear. OBJECTIVES: Our primary objective was to identify time trends in the age- and sex-adjusted adult incidence of PHF in Malmö, Sweden, from year 1944 until 2020. Our secondary objectives were to describe the variation in incidence according to age, the monthly distribution, and to compare data from the two most recent decades with earlier. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Malmö has one emergency hospital where acute fractures are treated. We identified PHF in adult patients (≥ 18 years) by reviewing relevant radiology examinations during 17 sample years from year 1944 to 2020. We used jointpoint analyses to estimate time trends. RESULTS: We identified 3 031 PHF during the study period (3 231 161 person years), 73% were sustained by women with mean age of 69 years (mean age in men 59). Joinpoint analyses indicated an increase in the age- and sex-adjusted incidence of PHF from year 1944 (52 per 100 000 person years) until 1977 (120 per 100 000) and thereafter a decrease until 2020 (85 per 100 000). A seasonal variation with more fractures during winter months, was apparent in earlier but not recent decades. CONCLUSIONS: The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of PHF increased in Malmö, Sweden, from the 1940´s until year 1977 and thereafter decreased until 2020. More fractures were seen during winter months in earlier but not recent decades.

Recovery pattern after decompression of central lumbar spinal stenosis: a prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Detailed preoperative information is associated with superior outcomes. We aimed to describe the recovery pattern after decompression of central lumbar spinal stenosis (CLSS). METHODS: 50 patients aged 51-85 years who underwent decompression without fusion due to CLSS were followed from before to after surgery (post-op day 1, 7, and 14). Back and leg pain were evaluated using the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS; 0 = no pain 0, 10 = worst pain) and quality of life using the EuroQol-5D index (0 = death, 1 = best), and EQ-5D-visual analogue scale (VAS; 0 = worst, 100 = best). RESULTS: NRS leg pain was reduced from preoperative to first postoperative day by 5.2 (6.1, 4.3) (mean (95%CI)], and NRS back pain from postoperative day 1-7 by 0.6 (1.2, 0.03) and from day 7 to 14 by 0.7 (1.3, 0.2)]. In contrast, EQ-5D index increased from preoperative to first postoperative day by 0.09 (0.06, 0.13) and from day 1 to 7 by 0.05 (0.02,0.08), and EQ-5D VAS from preoperative to first postoperative day by 13.7 (9.1, 18.3) and from day 1 to 7 by 6.0 (2.0, 10.0). After two weeks, 51% of the patients had improved above the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in back pain and 71% in leg pain. CONCLUSIONS: Patients scheduled for decompression due to CLSS should be informed that improvement in leg pain and quality of life in general can be expected within one day of surgery, that quality of life improves a little further in the first postoperative week, and that back pain improves in the first 2 postoperative weeks. In most patients, decompression without fusion due to CLSS seems to achieve clinically relevant improvement within 2 weeks.

Higher serum free thyroxine levels are associated with increased risk of hip fractures in older men.

Overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism are associated with an increased fracture risk, but whether thyroid hormones are associated with fracture risk in individuals with normal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) has mostly been investigated in women. Therefore, we investigated if serum levels of free thyroxine (FT4) or TSH are associated with fracture risk in Swedish men. We followed (median 12.2 yr) elderly men (n = 1825; mean age 75, range 69-81 yr) participating in the Gothenburg and Malmö subcohorts of the prospective, population-based MrOS-Sweden study. The statistical analyses included Cox proportional hazards regression. Men receiving levothyroxine treatment were excluded. In our total cohort, serum FT4 (per SD increase) was associated with increased risk of major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs; n = 479; fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI, 1.05-1.24) and hip fractures (n = 207; HR 1.18, 95% CI, 1.04-1.33). Also, in men with normal TSH (n = 1658), FT4 (per SD increase) was significantly associated with increased risk of MOF and hip fractures. Furthermore, men in the highest FT4 quartile had a 1.5-fold increase in hip fracture risk compared with men in the three lower FT4 quartiles, both in the total population and in men with normal TSH (fully adjusted: HR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.04-2.02 and HR 1.51, 95% CI, 1.07-2.12, respectively). In contrast, the risk of MOF was not statistically different in the highest FT4 quartile compared with the three lower FT4 quartiles. Finally, serum TSH was not associated with fracture risk after full adjustment for covariates. In conclusion, serum FT4, but not serum TSH, is a predictor of hip fracture risk in elderly Swedish men. Additionally, there was an association between FT4 (per SD increase) and the risk of MOF.

Risk and predictors of fractures in early rheumatoid arthritis - A long term follow up study of an inception cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the risk of fractures in a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis (RA), compared to the background population, and predictors of fractures detectable early in RA. METHODS: An inception cohort of patients with RA (N = 233; 164 women/69 men, recruited 1995-2005) was evaluated according to a structured program, including repeated clinical assessments and measures of bone mineral density (BMD), from diagnosis to 10 years later. Matched population controls were identified using the national census register. Fractures through 2019 were identified based on ICD codes. Cox regression models were used to assess the risk of fractures in RA patients compared with controls, and for assessment of potential predictors for fractures in the RA population. RESULTS: RA patients had an increased risk of fractures (fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.52, 95 % CI 1.13; 2.06). In the RA cohort, high age, low body mass index, and low BMD were significant baseline predictors of future fractures in multivariate analyses, but baseline RA disease characteristics were not. Worse disability (i.e. higher Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores) over time was significantly associated with increased risk of fractures (age-sex-adjusted HR 1.33 per SD, 95 % CI 1.09; 1.63) and there was an inverse association between BMD Z-scores over time and fractures. CONCLUSION: Patients with RA had higher risk of fractures than controls. Fracture risk was related to BMD at baseline and over time in patients with RA. In addition, worse disability (measured by HAQ) over time was associated with higher risk of fractures.