Streamwater responses to reduced nitrogen deposition at four small upland catchments in Norway.

Reduced emissions of nitrogen (N) in Europe have resulted in decreasing atmospheric deposition since 1990. Long-term data (1988-2017) from four small Norwegian catchments located along gradients in N deposition, rainfall, and organic carbon (C) show different responses to 25-30% reductions in N deposition during the same period. At three sites the decreased N deposition caused reduced leaching of nitrate to surface water, whereas the westernmost site showed no decrease, probably due to thin soils with low C:N ratio, poor vegetation cover and high precipitation. The loss of total N to streamwater constituted 30-50% of the N deposition. Losses via denitrification are unknown but assumed to be low, as a major fraction of the catchments are well-drained. Hence, the study sites seem to continue to accumulate N, presumably mostly in soil organic matter. Although atmospheric N deposition has declined, ambient loads might still exceed long-term sustainable levels in these vulnerable ecosystems.

Climate mitigation and intensified forest management in Norway: To what extent are surface waters safeguarded?

While the role of forestry in mitigating climate change is increasingly subject to political commitment, other areas, such as water protection, may be at risk. In this study, we ask whether surface waters are sufficiently safeguarded in relation to the 2015 launch of a series of measures to intensify forest management for mitigation of climate change in Norway. First, we assess how impacts on water are accounted for in existing regulations for sustainable forestry. Secondly, we provide an overview of the impacts of forestry on water quality relevant to three support schemes: afforestation on new areas, increased stocking density in existing forests, and forest fertilisation. Lastly, we assess the uncertainties that exist with regard to surface waters in the implementation of these measures. We find that the safeguards in place are adequate to protect water resources at the point of initiation, but there is a large degree of uncertainty as to the long-term effect of these mitigation measures.

Potential impacts of a future Nordic bioeconomy on surface water quality.

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The 'green shift' towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the 'green shift' highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the 'green shift' and propose 'road maps' towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services.

Manipulation of snow in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of total organic carbon and total organic nitrogen.

Projected increases in winter temperature due to future climate change may cause decreased snow accumulation at lower and intermediate altitudes in northern temperate regions. The resulting changes in soil temperature and water regime may affect the leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON). We manipulated the snow cover of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to quantify its effect on concentrations and fluxes of TOC and TON in runoff. Manipulations included snow removal, to promote soil frost, and insulation, to prevent soil frost. Snow removal resulted in increased TOC and TON concentrations, but decreased fluxes. Insulation caused a slight decrease in concentrations and fluxes of TOC. Our experiments show that a change in snow depth, and thus soil temperature, is not likely to have serious effects on TOC and TON leaching in the montane heathland area studied.

Natural variability in soil and runoff from small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway.

To provide baseline data for climate manipulation experiments in 11 small (30-268 m2) headwater catchments at Storgama, Telemark County, Southern Norway, we assessed the natural variability in site characteristics and runoff quality. Annual average concentrations in runoff at the sites have coefficients of variation between 26-61%, with the smallest values for total organic carbon (TOC) and carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratios and the largest for inorganic nitrogen (N). The catchments have between two and five times higher concentrations of inorganic N, TOC, and total phosphorus than the larger (0.6 km2) Storgama watershed nearby. Concentrations of TOC and TON in runoff tend to increase with soil C and N content and with the volume of soil in the catchment. For nitrate (NO3) and ammonium in runoff, the reverse is true. In wet years the proportion of bare rock is a major predictor for the annual average NO3 concentration in runoff.

Manipulation of snow in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of inorganic nitrogen.

We have manipulated the winter-time soil temperature regime of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to study the possible effects on concentrations and fluxes of inorganic nitrogen in runoff. The experiments included extra insulation of soils in two catchments to prevent subzero temperatures during winter, and removal of snow in two other catchments to promote soil frost. Increased soil temperatures during winter increased the springtime concentrations and fluxes of ammonium (NH4) and nitrate (NO3) in runoff. By contrast, snow removal with development of significant soil frost showed no systematic effects on mean concentrations or fluxes of inorganic N. The results from our experiments suggest that warmer soils during winter caused by exceptionally mild winters, or alternatively a heavy snowpack, imply a greater risk for inorganic N leaching in this region than a possible increase of soil frost events because of reduced snow cover.

Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: air-land-freshwater-marine links: synthesis.

Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway. At Storgama, increased precipitation in the growing season increased the fluxes of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in proportion to the water flux. In winter, soil temperatures near 0 degrees C, common under a snowpack, induced higher runoff of inorganic nitrogen (N) and lower runoff of TOC. By contrast, soil temperatures below freezing, caused by little snow accumulation (expected in a warmer world), reduced runoff of inorganic N, TON, and TOC. Long-term monitoring data showed that reduced snowpack can cause either decreased or increased N leaching, depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime, and winter discharge. Seasonal variation in TOC was mainly climatically controlled, whereas deposition of sulfate and nitrate (NO3) explained the long-term TOC increase. Upscaling to the river basin scale showed that the annual flux of NO3 will remain unchanged in response to climate change projections.

Manipulation of precipitation in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of organic carbon and nitrogen species.

Projected changes in climate in Southern Norway include increases in summer and autumn precipitation. This may affect leaching of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from soils. Effects of experimentally added extra precipitation (10 mm week) during the growing season of 3 years (2004-2006) to small headwater catchments at Storgama (59 degrees 0'N, 550-600 m a.s.l.) on leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) were assessed. Extra precipitation did not have a significant effect on average TOC and TON concentrations in runoff. Thus, fluxes of TOC and TON increased nearly proportionally with water fluxes. This suggests that a store of adsorbed and potentially mobile TOC and TON in catchment soils buffers the concentration of DOM in runoff. The size and dynamics of the pool of TOC and TON depends on the balance between production and leaching rates. Infrequent short droughts had only small effects on TOC and TON fluxes in runoff from the reference catchments.

Effect of climate change on fluxes of nitrogen from the Tovdal River basin, Norway, to adjoining marine areas.

The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO3) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO3 flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4 degrees C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO3 flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO3 delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.

Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone.

Effects of multiple stresses hydropower, acid deposition and climate change on water chemistry and salmon populations in the River Otra, Norway.

Many surface waters in Europe suffer from the adverse effects of multiple stresses. The Otra River, southernmost Norway, is impacted by acid deposition, hydropower development and increasingly by climate change. The river holds a unique population of land-locked salmon and anadromous salmon in the lower reaches. Both populations have been severely affected by acidification. The decrease in acid deposition since the 1980s has led to partial recovery of both populations. Climate change with higher temperatures and altered precipitation can potentially further impact fish populations. We used a linked set of process-oriented models to simulate future climate, discharge, and water chemistry at five sub-catchments in the Otra river basin. Projections to year 2100 indicate that future climate change will give a small but measureable improvement in water quality, but that additional reductions in acid deposition are needed to promote full restoration of the fish communities. These results can help guide management decisions to sustain key salmon habitats and carry out effective long-term mitigation strategies such as liming. The Otra River is typical of many rivers in Europe in that it fails to achieve the good ecological status target of the EU Water Framework Directive. The programme of measures needed in the river basin management plan necessarily must consider the multiple stressors of acid deposition, hydropower, and climate change. This is difficult, however, as the synergistic and antagonistic effects are complex and challenging to address with modelling tools currently available.

Bayesian uncertainty assessment of a semi-distributed integrated catchment model of phosphorus transport.

Process-based models of nutrient transport are often used as tools for management of eutrophic waters, as decision makers need to judge the potential effects of alternative remediation measures, under current conditions and with future land use and climate change. All modelling exercises entail uncertainty arising from various sources, such as the input data, selection of parameter values and the choice of model itself. Here we perform Bayesian uncertainty assessment of an integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P). We use an auto-calibration procedure and an algorithm for including parametric uncertainty to simulate phosphorus transport in a Norwegian lowland river basin. Two future scenarios were defined to exemplify the importance of parametric uncertainty in generating predictions. While a worst case scenario yielded a robust prediction of increased loading of phosphorus, a best case scenario only gave rise to a reduction in load with probability 0.78, highlighting the importance of taking parametric uncertainty into account in process-based catchment scale modelling of possible remediation scenarios. Estimates of uncertainty can be included in information provided to decision makers, thus making a stronger scientific basis for sound decisions to manage water resources.

Modelling phosphorus loading and algal blooms in a Nordic agricultural catchment-lake system under changing land-use and climate.

A model network comprising climate models, a hydrological model, a catchment-scale model for phosphorus biogeochemistry, and a lake thermodynamics and plankton dynamics model was used to simulate phosphorus loadings, total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in Lake Vansjø, Southern Norway. The model network was automatically calibrated against time series of hydrological, chemical and biological observations in the inflowing river and in the lake itself using a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Climate projections from three global climate models (GCM: HadRM3, ECHAM5r3 and BCM) were used. The GCM model HadRM3 predicted the highest increase in temperature and precipitation and yielded the highest increase in total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in the lake basin over the scenario period of 2031-2060. Despite the significant impact of climate change on these aspects of water quality, it is minimal when compared to the much larger effect of changes in land-use. The results suggest that implementing realistic abatement measures will remain a viable approach to improving water quality in the context of climate change.