Optimal allocation of resources among general and species-specific tools for plant pest biosecurity surveillance.

This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost-effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations. To address this gap, we applied our model to design a trapping surveillance program in New Zealand for bark- and wood-boring insects, some of the most serious forest pests worldwide. Our findings show that exclusively utilizing generalized traps (GTs) proves to be highly cost-effective across a wide range of scenarios, particularly when they are capable of capturing all pest species. Implementing surveillance programs that only employ specialized traps (ST) is cost-effective only when these traps can detect highly damaging pests. However, even in such cases, they significantly lag in cost-effectiveness compared to GT-only programs due to their restricted coverage. When both GTs and STs are used in an integrated surveillance program, the total expected cost (TEC) generally diminishes when compared to programs relying on a single type of trap. However, this relative reduction in TEC is only marginally larger than that achieved with GT-only programs, as long as highly damaging species can be detected by GTs. The proportion of STs among the optimal required traps fluctuates based on several factors, including the relative pricing of GTs and STs, pest arrival rates, potential damage, and, more prominently, the coverage capacity of GTs. Our analysis suggests that deploying GTs extensively across landscapes appears to be more cost-effective in areas with either very high or very low levels of relative risk density, potential damage, and arrival rate. Finally, STs are less likely to be required when the pests that are detected by those tools have a higher likelihood of successful eradication because delaying detection becomes less costly for these species.

Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases.

Nonnative plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantifying benefits and costs of these interventions is important to justify and prioritize investments and to inform biosecurity policy. However, approaches for these estimations differ in (1) the assumed relationship between supply, demand, and prices, and (2) the ability to assess different types of direct and indirect costs at invasion stages, for a given arrival or establishment probability. Here we review economic approaches available to estimate benefits and costs of biosecurity interventions to inform the appropriate selection of approaches. In doing so, we complement previous studies and reviews on estimates of damages from invasive species by considering the influence of economic and methodological assumptions. Cost accounting is suitable for rapid decisions, specific impacts, and simple methodological assumptions but fails to account for feedbacks, such as market adjustments, and may overestimate long-term economic impacts. Partial equilibrium models consider changes in consumer and producer surplus due to pest impacts or interventions and can account for feedbacks in affected sectors but require specialized economic models, comprehensive data sets, and estimates of commodity supply and demand curves. More intensive computable general equilibrium models can account for feedbacks across entire economies, including capital and labor, and linkages among these. The two major considerations in choosing an approach are (1) the goals of the analysis (e.g., consideration of a single pest or intervention with a limited range of impacts vs. multiple interventions, pests or sectors), and (2) the resources available for analysis such as knowledge, budget and time.

A risk-based detection survey for the predatory mirid Macrolophus pygmaeus in New Zealand.

Macrolophus pygmaeus, a predatory mirid used to manage greenhouse whitefly, was illegally imported into New Zealand, and for a time was reared and sold to commercial tomato growers. We designed and implemented a risk-based detection survey to determine whether M. pygmaeus was still present in New Zealand a decade later. The survey was designed to have an 80% chance of detecting a single low density (0.05 per lineal metre of host plants) population within 1 km of known points of introduction. The survey was implemented between 8 and 15 March 2018. Local habitat constraints meant that the planned sampling had to be modified but this was accounted for in the subsequent analysis. No M. pygmaeus were found in the samples, but 93 specimens from seven other mirid taxa were detected, validating the sample methods. The survey gives 60% confidence that M. pygmaeus was not present at a mean density of 0.05 per lineal metre of habitat. It gives 80% confidence that a population at 0.1 m-1 was not present and 90% confidence that no population exists at >0.18 m-1. Though there are no published data on typical field population densities of M. pygmaeus, for related species the survey would have had high confidence in detecting any medium to high density population present. Therefore, it is likely that M. pygmaeus is no longer present in New Zealand, but if extant within the sampled areas then we have high certainty that it was at low densities compared to other predaceous mirids.

Will growing invasive arthropod biodiversity outpace our ability for eradication?

The Global Eradication Database documents 811 eradication attempts against invasive arthropods since 1890, in 104 countries. Eradication programs show a greater than exponential increase in the number of programs started in recent decades. In addition, there is a trend of a rapidly diversifying burden of the most severe threats. The species richness showed a three-fold increase in number of species under eradication in the last 50 yr, and all taxonomic levels rose dramatically. The increase in number of eradication programs shows that current management measures for constraining the spread of invasive species are inadequate. A similar surge in the number of governments trying to prevent the establishment of new pests has occurred. Increased biodiversity of arthropod eradication targets includes new pest groups with fewer tools developed for management. We argue that a rapid increase in biodiversity of invasive and economically or environmentally damaging organisms represents a substantial and underestimated challenge for managers wanting to prevent their establishment, requiring a shift in research focus to accelerate delimitation and suppression options with less reliance on insecticides.

Eradication of Invading Insect Populations: From Concepts to Applications.

Eradication is the deliberate elimination of a species from an area. Given that international quarantine measures can never be 100% effective, surveillance for newly arrived populations of nonnative species coupled with their eradication represents an important strategy for excluding potentially damaging insect species. Historically, eradication efforts have not always been successful and have sometimes been met with public opposition. But new developments in our understanding of the dynamics of low-density populations, the availability of highly effective treatment tactics, and bioeconomic analyses of eradication strategies offer new opportunities for developing more effective surveillance and eradication programs. A key component that connects these new developments is the harnessing of Allee effects, which naturally promote localized species extinction. Here we review these developments and suggest how research might enhance eradication strategies.

Designing cost-efficient surveillance for early detection and control of multiple biological invaders.

Wood borers and bark beetles are among the most serious forest pests worldwide. Many such species have become successful invaders, often causing substantial, costly damages to forests. Here we design and evaluate the cost-efficiency of a trap-based surveillance program for early detection of wood borers and bark beetles at risk of establishing in New Zealand. Although costly, a surveillance program could lead to earlier detection of newly established forest pests, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful eradication and reducing control costs and damages from future invasions. We develop a mechanistic bioeconomic model that relates surveillance intensity (i.e., trap density) and invasion size to probabilities of detection and control. It captures the dynamics of invasive species establishment, spread, and damages to urban and plantation forests. We employ the model to design surveillance programs that provide the greatest net present benefits. Our findings suggest that implementing a surveillance trapping program for invasive wood borers and bark beetles would provide positive net benefits under all scenarios considered. The economically optimal trapping strategy calls for a very high investment in surveillance: about 10 000 traps in each year of the 30-year surveillance program, at a present value cost of US$54 million. This strategy provides a 39% reduction in costs compared with no surveillance, corresponding to an expected net present benefit of approximately US$300 million. Although surveillance may provide the greatest net benefits when implemented at relatively high levels, our findings also show that even low levels of surveillance are worthwhile: the economic benefits from surveillance more than offset the rising costs associated with increasing trapping density. Our results also show that the cost-efficiency of surveillance varies across target regions because of differences in pest introduction and damage accumulation rates across locales, with greater surveillance warranted in areas closer to at-risk, high-value resources and in areas that receive more imported goods that serve as an invasion pathway.

Review of surveillance systems for tephritid fruit fly threats in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Many countries conduct fruit fly surveillance but, while there are guidelines, practices vary widely. This review of some countries in the Pacific region demonstrates the diversity of fruit fly surveillance practices. All utilize 3 parapheromones-trimedlure, cuelure, and methyl eugenol-to trap adult male fruit flies. Some target species are not attracted to these compounds so other attractants such as food-based lures are used in certain areas or circumstances. Lure loading and replacement cycles depend on the target species and the local climate. Malathion and dichlorvos (DDVP) are commonly used toxicants, but not in all countries, and other toxicants are being developed to replace these older-generation pesticides. Jackson and Lynfield are commonly used trap designs but newer designs such as cone and Biotrap are being adopted. Local factors such as chemical registrations and climate affect the choice of trap, lure, dispenser, toxicant, and bait concentration. These choices affect the efficacy of traps, in turn influencing optimal trap deployment in space and time. Most states now follow similar practices around trap inspection, servicing, and data handling, but these processes will be disrupted by emerging automated trap technologies. Ultimately, different practices can be attributed to the unique fruit fly risk profiles faced by each state, particularly the suite of fruit flies already present and those that threaten from nearby. Despite the diversity of approaches, international trade in fruit continues with the assurance that fruit fly surveillance practices evolve and improve according to each country's risk profile and incursion experience.

Optimal surveillance and eradication of invasive species in heterogeneous landscapes.

Cost-effective surveillance strategies are needed for efficient responses to biological invasions and must account for the trade-offs between surveillance effort and management costs. Less surveillance may allow greater population growth and spread prior to detection, thereby increasing the costs of damages and control. In addition, surveillance strategies are usually applied in environments under continual invasion pressure where the number, size and location of established populations are unknown prior to detection. We develop a novel modeling framework that accounts for these features of the decision and invasion environment and determines the long term sampling effort that minimises the total expected costs of new invasions. The optimal solution depends on population establishment and growth rates, sample sensitivity, and sample, eradication, and damage costs. We demonstrate how to optimise surveillance systems under budgetary constraints and find that accounting for spatial heterogeneity in sampling costs and establishment rates can greatly reduce management costs.

Modeling the sterile insect technique for suppression of light brown apple moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae).

A population model was derived for light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), subject to the sterile insect technique (SIT). The model was parameterized from the literature and from recent laboratory studies conducted in New Zealand and Australia. Relationships were fitted for several model parameters that vary with irradiation dose, allowing the model to simulate effectively complete sterility at 300 Gy through inherited sterility occurring from lower doses. At 300 Gy, the model suggests that eventual population extinction is 95% probable when the ratio of released to wild males in monitoring traps exceeds 6.4. Higher overflooding rates would be required to achieve eradication more rapidly. The optimal release interval, in terms of minimizing the required rate of production of factory moths, is approximately weekly. There is little advantage in releasing males only compared with releasing both sexes. Female-only releases are unlikely to be a useful tool for inherited sterility eradication because there is no reduction in the fertility of F1 offspring. The critical release rate required to halt population increase declines with decreasing irradiation dose, but at doses of < 171 Gy there is a risk that irradiated-lineage moths may form a self-sustaining population, making eradication by SIT alone impossible. The model suggests that a dose of around 200 Gy may be optimal because the resulting inherited sterility would reduce by a third the number of factory moths required compared with 300 Gy.

A biosecurity response to Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Auckland, New Zealand.

A biosecurity response was triggered by the detection of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) at the Port of Auckland, New Zealand. Ae. albopictus does not occur in New Zealand and is the most significant mosquito threat to this country. The possibility that a founding population had established, resulted in a large-scale biosecurity surveillance and control program. The response was initiated in early March 2007 and completed by mid-May 2007. No further exotic mosquitoes were detected. The response surveillance program consisted of larval habitat surveys and high density ovi- and light trapping. It was coordinated with a habitat modification and S-methoprene treatment control program. The response policies were guided by analysis of surveillance and quality assurance data, population modeling, and trace-back activities. Mosquito habitat and activity close to port were both more abundant than expected, particularly in storm water drain sumps. Sumps are difficult to treat, and during the response some modification was required to the surveillance program and the control regime. We were assured of the absence or eradication of any Ae. albopictus population, as a result of nil detection from surveillance, backed up by four overlapping rounds of insecticide treatment of habitat. This work highlights the importance of port surveillance and may serve as a guide for responses for future urban mosquito incursions.

The potential for a CRISPR gene drive to eradicate or suppress globally invasive social wasps.

CRISPR gene drives have potential for widespread and cost-efficient pest control, but are highly controversial. We examined a potential gene drive targeting spermatogenesis to control the invasive common wasp (Vespula vulgaris) in New Zealand. Vespula wasps are haplodiploid. Their life cycle makes gene drive production challenging, as nests are initiated by single fertilized queens in spring followed by several cohorts of sterile female workers and the production of reproductives in autumn. We show that different spermatogenesis genes have different levels of variation between introduced and native ranges, enabling a potential 'precision drive' that could target the reduced genetic diversity and genotypes within the invaded range. In vitro testing showed guide-RNA target specificity and efficacy that was dependent on the gene target within Vespula, but no cross-reactivity in other Hymenoptera. Mathematical modelling incorporating the genetic and life history traits of Vespula wasps identified characteristics for a male sterility drive to achieve population control. There was a trade-off between drive infiltration and impact: a drive causing complete male sterility would not spread, while partial sterility could be effective in limiting population size if the homing rate is high. Our results indicate that gene drives may offer viable suppression for wasps and other haplodiploid pests.

Mazes to Study the Effects of Spatial Complexity, Predation and Population Density on Mate Finding.

The difficulty to locate mates and overcome predation can hamper species establishment and population maintenance. The effects of sparseness between individuals or the effect of predators on the probability of population growth can be difficult to measure experimentally. For testing hypotheses about population density and predation, we contend that habitat complexity can be simulated using insect mazes of varying mathematical difficulty. To demonstrate the concept, we investigated whether the use of 3D printed mazes of varying complexity could be used to increase spatial separation between sexes of Drosophila simulans, and whether the presence of a generalist predator hampered mate-finding. We then examined how increasing D. simulans population density might overcome the artificially created effects of increasing the distance between mates and having a predator present. As expected, there was an increase in time taken to find a mate and a lower incidence of mating as habitat complexity increased. Increasing the density of flies reduced the searching time and increased mating success, and overcame the effect of the predator in the maze. Printable 3D mazes offer the opportunity to quickly assess the effects of spatial separation on insect population growth in the laboratory, without the need for large enclosed spaces. Mazes could be scaled up for larger insects and can be used for other applications such as learning.

Eradication of tephritid fruit fly pest populations: outcomes and prospects.

BACKGROUND: The number of insect eradication programmes is rising in response to globalisation. A database of arthropod and plant pathogen eradications covers 1050 incursion responses, with 928 eradication programmes on 299 pest and disease taxa in 104 countries (global eradication database b3.net.nz/gerda). METHODS: A subset of the database was assembled with 211 eradication or response programmes against 17 species of fruit flies (Tephritidae) in 31 countries, in order to investigate factors affecting the outcome. RESULTS: The failure rate for fruit fly eradication programmes was about 7%, with 0% for Ceratitis capitata (n = 85 programmes) and 0% for two Anastrepha species (n = 12 programmes), but 12% for 13 Bactrocera species (n = 108 programmes). A number of intended eradication programmes against long-established populations were not initiated because of cost and other considerations, or evolved during the planning phase into suppression programmes. Cost was dependent on area, ranged from $US 0.1 million to $US 240 million and averaged about $US 12 million (normalised to $US in 2012). In addition to the routine use of surveillance networks, quarantine and fruit destruction, the key tactics used in eradication programmes were male annihilation, protein bait sprays (which can attract both sexes), fruit destruction and the sterile insect technique. CONCLUSIONS: Eradication success generally required the combination of several tactics applied on an area-wide basis. Because the likelihood of eradication declines with an increase in the area infested, it pays to invest in effective surveillance networks that allow early detection and delimitation while invading populations are small, thereby greatly favouring eradication success.

Spatial analysis of mass trapping: how close is close enough?

BACKGROUND: The identification of new attractants can present opportunities for developing mass trapping, but standard screening methods are needed to expedite this. We have developed a simple approach based on quantifying trap interference in 4 × 4 trap arrays with different spacings. We discuss results from sex pheromones in Lepidoptera (light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana), Diptera (apple leaf curling midge, Dasineura mali) and Homoptera (citrophilous mealybug, Pseudococcus calceolariae), compared with a kairomone for New Zealand flower thrips (Thrips obscuratus). RESULTS: The ratio of catch in corner traps to catch in centre traps was 25:1 at 750 D. mali traps ha(-1) , and was still ∼5:1 at 16 traps ha(-1) , suggesting trap interference even at such low trap densities. Trap competition for sex pheromone lures at close spacing (<5 m) was evident in 16-trap arrays of P. calceolariae, but less so for E. postvittana. No trap competition was observed at 4 m spacings with the kairomone for T. obscuratus. CONCLUSIONS: The ratio of catch in traps in the corner and centre of a 16-trap array at different spacings offers a rapid preliminary assessment method for determining the potential for mass trapping. Additional knowledge of vital rates and dispersal is needed for predicting population suppression. Our approach should have value in mass trapping development. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.