Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

Increasing comparability among coral bleaching experiments.

Coral bleaching is the single largest global threat to coral reefs worldwide. Integrating the diverse body of work on coral bleaching is critical to understanding and combating this global problem. Yet investigating the drivers, patterns, and processes of coral bleaching poses a major challenge. A recent review of published experiments revealed a wide range of experimental variables used across studies. Such a wide range of approaches enhances discovery, but without full transparency in the experimental and analytical methods used, can also make comparisons among studies challenging. To increase comparability but not stifle innovation, we propose a common framework for coral bleaching experiments that includes consideration of coral provenance, experimental conditions, and husbandry. For example, reporting the number of genets used, collection site conditions, the experimental temperature offset(s) from the maximum monthly mean (MMM) of the collection site, experimental light conditions, flow, and the feeding regime will greatly facilitate comparability across studies. Similarly, quantifying common response variables of endosymbiont (Symbiodiniaceae) and holobiont phenotypes (i.e., color, chlorophyll, endosymbiont cell density, mortality, and skeletal growth) could further facilitate cross-study comparisons. While no single bleaching experiment can provide the data necessary to determine global coral responses of all corals to current and future ocean warming, linking studies through a common framework as outlined here, would help increase comparability among experiments, facilitate synthetic insights into the causes and underlying mechanisms of coral bleaching, and reveal unique bleaching responses among genets, species, and regions. Such a collaborative framework that fosters transparency in methods used would strengthen comparisons among studies that can help inform coral reef management and facilitate conservation strategies to mitigate coral bleaching worldwide.

Exploring the role of Micronesian islands in the maintenance of coral genetic diversity in the Pacific Ocean.

Understanding how genetic diversity is maintained across patchy marine environments remains a fundamental problem in marine biology. The Coral Triangle, located in the Indo-West Pacific, is the centre of marine biodiversity and has been proposed as an important source of genetic diversity for remote Pacific reefs. Several studies highlight Micronesia, a scattering of hundreds of small islands situated within the North Equatorial Counter Current, as a potentially important migration corridor. To test this hypothesis, we characterized the population genetic structure of two ecologically important congeneric species of reef-building corals across greater Micronesia, from Palau to the Marshall Islands. Genetic divergences between islands followed an isolation-by-distance pattern, with Acropora hyacinthus exhibiting greater genetic divergences than A. digitifera, suggesting different migration capabilities or different effective population sizes for these closely related species. We inferred dispersal distance using a biophysical larval transport model, which explained an additional 15-21% of the observed genetic variation compared to between-island geographical distance alone. For both species, genetic divergence accumulates and genetic diversity diminishes with distance from the Coral Triangle, supporting the hypothesis that Micronesian islands act as important stepping stones connecting the central Pacific with the species-rich Coral Triangle. However, for A. hyacinthus, the species with lower genetic connectivity, immigration from the subequatorial Pacific begins to play a larger role in shaping diversity than input from the Coral Triangle. This work highlights the enormous dispersal potential of broadcast-spawning corals and identifies the biological and physical drivers that influence coral genetic diversity on a regional scale.

Heritable differences in fitness-related traits among populations of the mustard hill coral, Porites astreoides.

A population's potential for rapid evolutionary adaptation can be estimated from the amount of genetic variation in fitness-related traits. Inshore populations of the mustard hill coral (Porites astreoides) have been shown to be more tolerant to thermal stress than offshore populations, but it is unclear whether this difference is due to long-term physiological acclimatization or genetic adaptation. Here, we evaluated variation in growth rate and survival among 38 families of juvenile recruits of P. astreoides spawned by colonies originating from inshore and offshore locations. Recruits were reared in a common garden for 5 weeks and then subjected to two thermal treatments (28 and 31 °C) for 2.5 weeks. The most significant effects were detected during the first 5 weeks, before thermal stress was applied: 27-30% of variance in growth and 94% of variance in recruit survival was attributable to parental effects. Genotyping of eight microsatellite loci indicated that the high early mortality of some of the recruit families was not due to higher inbreeding. Post treatment, parental effects diminished such that only 10-15% of variance in growth rate was explained, which most likely reflects the dissipation of maternal effects. However, offshore-origin recruits still grew significantly less under elevated temperature compared with inshore-origin recruits. These differences observed in naive juvenile corals suggest that population-level variation in fitness in response to different thermal environments has a genetic basis and could represent raw material for natural selection in times of climate change.

Gene expression under chronic heat stress in populations of the mustard hill coral (Porites astreoides) from different thermal environments.

Recent evidence suggests that corals can acclimatize or adapt to local stress factors through differential regulation of their gene expression. Profiling gene expression in corals from diverse environments can elucidate the physiological processes that may be responsible for maximizing coral fitness in their natural habitat and lead to a better understanding of the coral's capacity to survive the effects of global climate change. In an accompanying paper, we show that Porites astreoides from thermally different reef habitats exhibit distinct physiological responses when exposed to 6 weeks of chronic temperature stress in a common garden experiment. Here, we describe expression profiles obtained from the same corals for a panel of 9 previously reported and 10 novel candidate stress response genes identified in a pilot RNA-Seq experiment. The strongest expression change was observed in a novel candidate gene potentially involved in calcification, SLC26, a member of the solute carrier family 26 anion exchangers, which was down-regulated by 92-fold in bleached corals relative to controls. The most notable signature of divergence between coral populations was constitutive up-regulation of metabolic genes in corals from the warmer inshore location, including the gluconeogenesis enzymes pyruvate carboxylase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase and the lipid beta-oxidation enzyme acyl-CoA dehydrogenase. Our observations highlight several molecular pathways that were not previously implicated in the coral stress response and suggest that host management of energy budgets might play an adaptive role in holobiont thermotolerance.

Evidence for a host role in thermotolerance divergence between populations of the mustard hill coral (Porites astreoides) from different reef environments.

Studying the mechanisms that enable coral populations to inhabit spatially varying thermal environments can help evaluate how they will respond in time to the effects of global climate change and elucidate the evolutionary forces that enable or constrain adaptation. Inshore reefs in the Florida Keys experience higher temperatures than offshore reefs for prolonged periods during the summer. We conducted a common garden experiment with heat stress as our selective agent to test for local thermal adaptation in corals from inshore and offshore reefs. We show that inshore corals are more tolerant of a 6-week temperature stress than offshore corals. Compared with inshore corals, offshore corals in the 31 °C treatment showed significantly elevated bleaching levels concomitant with a tendency towards reduced growth. In addition, dinoflagellate symbionts (Symbiodinium sp.) of offshore corals exhibited reduced photosynthetic efficiency. We did not detect differences in the frequencies of major (>5%) haplotypes comprising Symbiodinium communities hosted by inshore and offshore corals, nor did we observe frequency shifts ('shuffling') in response to thermal stress. Instead, coral host populations showed significant genetic divergence between inshore and offshore reefs, suggesting that in Porites astreoides, the coral host might play a prominent role in holobiont thermotolerance. Our results demonstrate that coral populations inhabiting reefs <10-km apart can exhibit substantial differences in their physiological response to thermal stress, which could impact their population dynamics under climate change.

Fluorescence of coral larvae predicts their settlement response to crustose coralline algae and reflects stress.

Multi-coloured homologues of the green fluorescent protein generate some of the most striking visual phenomena in the ocean. Despite their natural prominence in reef-building corals and widespread use in biotechnology, their biological role remains obscure. Here, we experimented with larvae of Acropora millepora to determine what can be learned about a coral larva or recruit from its fluorescent colour. We performed 12 crosses between seven A. millepora colonies representing differing fluorescence phenotypes, the larvae of which were exposed to a natural settlement cue (crustose coralline algae) and heat-light stress. Parental effects explained 18 per cent of variation in colour and 47 per cent of variation in settlement. The colour of the larval family emerged as a predictor of the settlement success: redder families were significantly less responsive to the provided settlement cue (p = 0.006). This relationship was owing to a correlation between parental effects on settlement and colour (r(2) = 0.587, p = 0.045). We also observed pronounced (16%) decline in settlement rate, as well as subtle (2%), but a statistically significant decrease in red fluorescence, as a consequence of heat-light stress exposure. Variation in settlement propensity in A. millepora is largely owing to additive genetic effects, and is thought to reflect variation in dispersal potential. Our results suggest an optical signature to discriminate between long- and short-range dispersing genotypes, as well as to evaluate stress. Further research in this direction may lead to the development of field applications to trace changes in coral life history and physiology caused by global warming.

Diagnostic gene expression biomarkers of coral thermal stress.

Gene expression biomarkers can enable rapid assessment of physiological conditions in situ, providing a valuable tool for reef managers interested in linking organism physiology with large-scale climatic conditions. Here, we assessed the ability of quantitative PCR (qPCR)-based gene expression biomarkers to evaluate (i) the immediate cellular stress response (CSR) of Porites astreoides to incremental thermal stress and (ii) the magnitude of CSR and cellular homeostasis response (CHR) during a natural bleaching event. Expression levels largely scaled with treatment temperature, with the strongest responses occurring in heat-shock proteins. This is the first demonstration of a 'tiered' CSR in a coral, where the magnitude of expression change is proportional to stress intensity. Analysis of a natural bleaching event revealed no signature of an acute CSR in normal or bleached corals, indicating that the bleaching stressor(s) had abated by the day of sampling. Another long-term stress CHR-based indicator assay was significantly elevated in bleached corals, although assay values overall were low, suggesting good prospects for recovery. This study represents the first step in linking variation in gene expression biomarkers to stress tolerance and bleaching thresholds in situ by quantifying the severity of ongoing thermal stress and its accumulated long-term impacts.