Factors Explaining the Change in Socioeconomic Inequality of Disability in Iran: A Repeated Cross-sectional Study.

Background: More than 15% of the world's population live with some form of disability. Assessing socioeconomic inequalities in disability and monitoring its change over time can help policymakers to design and implement targeted interventions to reduce these inequalities. This study aimed to assess the change in socioeconomic inequality in disability in Iran from 2000 to 2010. Methods: Data for this cross-sectional study were obtained from 2 waves of Iran's demographic and health surveys (2000 and 2010). The Wagstaff normalized concentration index was used to measure the socioeconomic inequality of disability. Contributing factors to the inequality in 2000 and 2010 were investigated by concentration index decomposition. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method was used to determine contributing factors of change in disability inequality. All analyses were conducted in Stata14. Results: The negative and statistically significant concentration indices (-0.132 in 2000 and -0.165 in 2010, P < 0.001) suggested more concentration of disability among poor people. The absolute value of inequality was increased by 0.034 between the 2 points of time (P = 0.025). Level of education (123.5%), household size (12.9%), age (-35.1%), and residency (in terms of Iran's provinces) (-19.3%) were the contributing factors to the measured disability inequality in 2000. In 2010, level of education (105.8%), household size (30.5%), and urban residency (-46.3%) explained the measured inequality. Change in disability inequality was explained by household size (99.4%), province of residence (54.8%), education (36.9%), socioeconomic status (20%), urban residency (-90.3%), and age (-47.7%). Conclusion: Iran suffers from significant socioeconomic inequality in disability, and it significantly increased over time. Interventions such as increasing health literacy and providing suitable job opportunities for people with low education level, improving the socioeconomic status of extended households, and paying more attention to the balanced development in the provinces and urban and rural areas, and attending to prevention, treatment, and mitigation of disability adversities among poor young and elderly people could be recommended to tackle increased socioeconomic inequality in disability and its unfavorable consequences in Iran.

National surveillance of cancer survival in Iran (IRANCANSURV): Analysis of data of 15 cancer sites from nine population-based cancer registries.

Cancer survival is a key indicator for the national cancer control programs. However, survival data in the East Mediterranean region (EMR) are limited. We designed a national cancer survival study based on population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) from nine provinces in Iran. The current study reports 5-year net survival of 15 cancers in Iranian adults (15-99 years) during 2014 to 2015 in nine provinces of Iran. We used data linkages between the cancer registries and the causes of death registry and vital statistics and active follow-up approaches to ascertain the vital status of the patients. Five-year net survival was estimated through the relative survival analysis. We applied the international cancer survival standard weights for age standardization. Five-year survival was highest for prostate cancer (74.9%, 95% CI 73.0, 76.8), followed by breast (74.4%, 95% CI 72.50, 76.3), bladder (70.4%, 95% CI 69.0, 71.8) and cervix (65.2%, 95% CI 60.5, 69.6). Survival was below 25% for cancers of the pancreas, lung, liver, stomach and esophagus. Iranian cancer patients experience a relatively poor prognosis as compared to those in high-income countries. Implementation of early detection programs and improving the quality of care are required to improve the cancer survival among Iranian patients. Further studies are needed to monitor the outcomes of cancer patients in Iran and other EMR countries.

The age and cause decomposition of inequality in life expectancy between Iranian provinces: application of Arriaga method.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to decompose the age and cause inequality in life expectancy between two Iranian provinces with the highest and the lowest life expectancy using the Arriaga method. METHODS: The required data was extracted from the death registration system (DRS) and statistical center of Iran. First, we calculated life expectancy at birth for 31 provinces of Iran using life tables, and subsequently, two provinces with the highest and the lowest life expectancy were determined. To decompose the age and cause share in the life expectancy gap between the two provinces, we used Arriaga's method. RESULTS: Tehran with 80.09 years and Sistan and Baluchistan with 72.9 years had the highest and the lowest life expectancy among Iranian Provinces respectively. As a result, the life expectancy gap between Tehran and Sistan and Baluchistan was 7.19 years. Results of age decomposition showed that the highest share in the life expectancy gap attributed to the age group under one year (1.25 years). In terms of the cause of death, the highest percentage belonged to hypertensive diseases with a share of 1.77 years. CONCLUSIONS: There is a wide gap between two provinces with the highest and the lowest life expectancy. Age less than one year and hypertensive diseases were major factors in this inequality. Therefore, policy-makers should concentrate on improvement of survival in children and the reduction of hypertensive diseases to promote life expectancy in Sistan and Baluchistan.

Trends of Diabetes Mortality in Iran at National and Sub-National Levels from 1990 to 2015 and Its Association with Socioeconomic Factors.

Background: Following global commitments to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, we sought to estimate national and sub-national trends in diabetes mortality in Iran and assess its association with socioeconomic factors. Methods: In a systematic analytical study, to assess the correlation between diabetes mortality and socioeconomic factors, we used data obtained from the Death Registration System (DRS), the Spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) levels and the diabetes mortality trends, which were estimated by sex, age and year at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015. Results: Between the years 1990 and 2015, the age-standardized diabetes mortality rate (per 100,000) increased from 3.40 (95% UI: 2.33 to 4.99) to 7.72 (95% UI: 5.51 to 10.78) in males and from 4.66 (95% UI: 3.23 to 6.76) to 10.38 (95% UI: 7.54 to 14.23) in females. In 1990, the difference between the highest age-standardized diabetes mortality rate among males was 3.88 times greater than the lowest (5.97 vs. 1.54), and in 2015 this difference was 3.96 times greater (14.65 vs. 3.70). This provincial difference was higher among females and was 5.13 times greater in 1990 (8.41 vs. 1.64) and 5.04 times greater in 2015 (19.87 vs. 3.94). The rate of diabetes mortality rose with urbanization yet declined with an increase in wealth and years of schooling as the main socio-economic factors. Conclusion: The rising trend of diabetes mortality rate at the national level and the sub-national disparities associated with socioeconomic status in Iran warrant the implementation of specific interventions recommended by the '25 by 25' goal.

Spatio-temporal analysis of misaligned burden of disease data using a geo-statistical approach.

Data used to estimate the burden of diseases (BOD) are usually sparse, noisy, and heterogeneous. These data are collected from surveys, registries, and systematic reviews that have different areal units, are conducted at different times, and are reported for different age groups. In this study, we developed a Bayesian geo-statistical model to combine aggregated sparse, noisy BOD data from different sources with misaligned areal units. Our model incorporates the correlation of space, time, and age to estimate health indicators for areas with no data or a small number of observations. The model also considers the heterogeneity of data sources and the measurement errors of input data in the final estimates and uncertainty intervals. We applied the model to combine data from nine different sources of body mass index in a national and sub-national BOD study. The cross-validation results confirmed a high out-of-sample predictive ability in sparse and noisy data. The proposed model can be used by other BOD studies especially at the sub-national level when the areal units are subject to misalignment.

Performance evaluation and ranking of regional primary health care and public health Systems in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The present study has been undertaken with the aim to evaluate performance and ranking of various universities of medical sciences that are responsible for providing public health services and primary health care in Iran. METHODS: Four models; Weighted Factor Analysis (WFA), Equal Weighting (EW), Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) have been applied for evaluating the performance of universities of medical sciences. This study was commenced based on the statistical reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME), census data from the Statistical Center of Iran, indicators of Vital Statistics, results of Multiple Indicator of Demographic and Health Survey 2010, and results of the National Survey of Risk Factors of non-communicable diseases. RESULTS: The average performance scores in WFA, EW, SFA, and DEA methods for the universities were 0.611, 0.663, 0.736 and 0.838, respectively. In all 4 models, the performance scores of universities were different (range from 0.56-1, 0.53-1, 0.73-1 and 0.83-1 in WFA, EW, SFA and DEA models, respectively). Gilan and Rafsanjan universities with the average ranking score of 4.75 and 41 had the highest and lowest rank among universities, respectively. The universities of Gilan, Ardabil and Bojnourd in all four models had the highest performance among the top 15 universities, while the universities of Rafsanjan, Ahvaz, Kerman and Jiroft showed poor performance in all models. CONCLUSIONS: The average performance scores have varied based on different measurement methods, so judging the performance of universities based solely on the results of a model can be misleading. In all models, the performance of universities has been different, which indicates the need for planning to balance the performance improvement of universities based on learning from the experiences of well-performing universities.

Tracking socio-economic inequalities in healthcare utilization in Iran: a repeated cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although some healthcare reforms such as Health Transformation Plan (HTP) were implemented in Iran to provide required healthcare services, few studies have been conducted to track the impacts of these reforms on socio-economic inequality in healthcare utilization. This study aims to track socio-economic inequalities in healthcare utilization and their changes between 2008 and 2016 in Iran. METHODS: Required data were obtained from two of Iran's utilization of healthcare services survey conducted in 2008 and 2016. Erreygers concentration index (EI) was used to measure inequality in the utilization of outpatient and inpatient healthcare services (UOH and UIH). The decomposition of EI (DEI) was used to explain healthcare utilization inequality. Oaxaca decomposition (OD) was also employed to track the changes in EI in this period. RESULT: Inequality in UOH increased from 0.105 to 0.133 in the studied years, indicating the pro-rich distribution of UOH. Inequality in UIH decreased from 0.0558 to - 0.006. DEI showed that economic status was the main factor that contributed to inequality in the UOH and UIH. OD showed that residence in rural areas and supplementary insurance were the main contributing factors in the increased inequality of UOH. Moreover, OD also showed that economic status was the main contributing factor in the reduced inequality of UIH. CONCLUSION: While Iran still suffers from significant socio-economic inequalities in UOH, it seems that healthcare reforms, especially HTP, have reduced UIH inequality. Expanding healthcare reforms into the outpatient sector and also implementing effective health financing policies could be recommended as a remedy against UOH inequality.

Investigating changes in unintended pregnancies before and after the changes in the family planning policies in Iran: A multivariate decomposition analysis.

Background: Unintended pregnancy is a global public health problem that has adverse health, economic, and social consequences for families and societies. This study aimed to measure levels of and analyze changes in unintended pregnancies before and after the changes in the family planning policies in Iran. Methods: Data were extracted from Iran's Demographic and Health Surveys in 2000, 2010, and 2015. The study population consisted of married pregnant women aged 15-49 years. In this study, the data of 112 400, 29 609, and 32 264 households and 4976, 1123, and 900 married pregnant women in 2000, 2010 and 2015, respectively, were used. Logistic regression model was applied to estimate effect of the study explanatory variables on unintended pregnancy in each year, and contribution of different factors to the changes in unintended pregnancies was investigated using multivariate decomposition method. All the study analyses were performed using the Stata software, with the statistical significance level of 0.05. Results: The rate of unintended pregnancies decreased by 13% in 2000-2010 and by 1.3% in 2010-2015. Changes in women's likelihood of experiencing unintended pregnancy positively contributed to unintended pregnancy reduction in 2000-2010 and 2010- 2015; however, the change patterns were different. Changes in the distribution of women's characteristics had positive and negative contributions in 2000-10 and 2010-15, respectively. An increase in pregnant women's parity was the main factor with counteracting effect on unintended pregnancy reduction in 2010-2015. Conclusion: Unintended pregnancies decreased among Iranian married women over the study years, but its reduction was slowed down after the changes in the family planning policies. Policy actions in health and other socioeconomic sectors aiming to encourage nulliparous women to become pregnant and help nulliparous women, women with the parity of more than 2, and women in the middle and late reproductive ages to reduce their risk of unintended pregnancy, can accelerate the trend of unintended pregnancy reduction in the future.

Trend forecasting of main groups of causes-of-death in Iran using the Lee-Carter model.

Background: Authoritative information and description of the causes of mortality trends is one of the most basic principles of evaluation of the health sector in all countries. Therefore, this study aims to predict the trend in main groups of causes of death in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Methods: The study population comprised all deaths recorded in the system of registration and classification of causes of death of Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the years 2006 to 2015. The information was collected via death certificate, burial permit, and information forms. In order to forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1. Results: Based on the results, the crude death rate in the total population has reduced from 435.86 in 2006 to 405.01 per 100000 population in 2035. It is anticipated that endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases with the rate of 197.71 per 100000 population will be responsible for the highest causes of death in the year 2035 and from 2021 onwards, the mental and behavioral disorders will be responsible for the lowest rate of mortality. Conclusion: Non-communicable diseases have a major role in the deaths of Iranian population; therefore, to reduce the impact of non-communicable diseases on individuals and society, a holistic approach is needed which requires all sectors to cooperate.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

national survey on the pattern of breastfeeding in Iranian infants: The IrMIDHS study.

Background: Breastfeeding has been recognized to have a great deal of benefits for both the mothers and infants. Moreover, the importance of exclusive breastfeeding in the first six months of life has been greatly acknowledged. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the prevalence of starting breastfeeding in the first hour after delivery and the exclusive breast milk feeding as well as the age at which complimentary foods are provided to the child and duration of breastfeeding in Iran. Methods: This nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted in the frame of a national survey, Iran Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey (IrMIDHS), in 31 provinces of Iran. Participants were selected by multistage cluster sampling. The target sample was 3,096 clusters consisting of 2,187 urban and 909 rural families. Data were collected using a questionnaire through face-to-face interviews. Results: The rate of exclusive breastfeeding was 53.13% with higher prevalence in rural (67.76%) than in urban areas (47.79%) (P = 0.04), and among girls (56.35%) compared to boys (50.60%). The prevalence of breastfeeding as the main diet of Iranian infants under six months old was 70.72% and the prevalence of initiation of breastfeeding (up to the first hour after delivery) was 68.70%. The probability of breastfeeding continuance among twelve to fifteen months children was 84.22%; the corresponding figure was 51% among twenty to twenty three months old babies (p=0.03). Conclusion: Exclusive breastfeeding should be encouraged; and strategies that are more effective should be designed to protect, train and support young mothers to breastfeed their infants. The importance of early beginning of breastfeeding and its continuation should be underscored.

The rate of antibiotic utilization in Iranian under 5-year-old children with acute respiratory tract illness: A nationwide community-based study.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the prevalence of antibiotic usage in children aged <5 years with acute respiratory tract illness (ARTI) in Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were collected from a national health survey conducted in 2010 (Iran's Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey). Participants of this cross-sectional study were selected by multistage stratified cluster-random sampling from 31 provinces of Iran. Parents of children with <5 years of age responded to questions about the occurrence of any cough during the previous 2 weeks, referral to private/governmental/other health care systems, and utilization of any oral/injection form of antibiotics. Data were analyzed using SPSS software18. The chi-square test was used to determine antibiotic consumption in various gender and residency groups and also a place of residence with the referral health care system. RESULTS: Of the 9345 children under 5 years who participated in the study, 1506 cases (16.2%) had ARTI during 2 weeks prior to the interview, in whom 1143 (75.9%) were referred to urban or rural health care centers (43.4 vs. 30.4%; P < 0.001). Antibiotics were utilized by 715 (62.6%) of affected children. Injection formulations were used for 150 (13.1%) patients. The frequency of receiving antibiotics was higher in urban than in rural inhabitants (66.0% vs. 57.7% P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of total and injection antibiotics usage in children <5 years with ARTI is alarmingly high in Iran. Therefore, interventions to reduce antibiotic use are urgently needed.

Developing a household survey tool for health equity: A practical guide in Islamic Republic of Iran.

BACKGROUND: An obvious gradient in health outcomes has been implicated in many evidences relating to social and economic factors. Proper data are requested to convince policy-makers calling for intersectoral action for health. Recently, I.R. of Iran has come up with 52 health equity indicators to monitor health equity through the country. Conducting regular surveys on 14 out of 52 national health equity indicators is needed to provide a basis for the health inequality analysis through the country. We aimed to introduce a survey tool and its related protocols on health equity indicators. METHODS: This study was conducted through addressing the literature and expertise of health and demographic surveys at the national and international levels. Also, we conducted technical and consultative committee meetings, a final consensus workshop and a pilot study to finalize the survey tool. RESULTS: We defined the study design, sampling method, reliable questionnaires and instructions, data collection and supervision procedure. We also defined the data analysis protocol on health equity indicators, generated from non-routine data. CONCLUSION: A valid and reliable tool, which could be employed at the national and sub-national levels, was designed to measure health equity in Iran. Policy-makers can use this survey tool to generate useful information and evidence to design appropriate required intervention and reduce health inequality across the country.

Epidemiological patterns and spatiotemporal analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality in Iran: Development of public health strategies and policies.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) stand out as the leading cause of mortality, and the mortality rate attributed to this disease is notably elevated in Iran. Consequently, dedicated studies on CVD become imperative. METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilized data from the death registration system of the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education of Iran. In this study, the statistical population of all people who died due to CVD in Iran were18,146, 21,945, and 24,352 individuals in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. The primary objective is to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of CVD mortality spatiotemporally using GIS-based methodologies. To achieve this, CVD mortality data at the township level for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 in Iran are subjected to spatial statistical tests, including Anselin Local Moran's I and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), as well as analytical techniques such as Mean Center (MC), (SD), and (GIS). RESULTS: The study identified a rising trend in cardiovascular disease-related deaths in Iran, reaching (46.36% females and 53.64 males), (45.39% females and 54.61% males) and (45.67% females and 54.33% males) individuals in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Throughout this period, the mortality rate was higher among men, with the elderly showing the highest mortality. Notably, distinct hotspots of cardiovascular disease mortality emerged in the western, southern, and eastern regions of Iran. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions and further investigation into the contributing factors in these specific geographic areas. CONCLUSION: Geographic factors are identified as significant contributors to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Our study, shedding light on the spatial dynamics of the disease, offers valuable insights for decision-makers. The findings can contribute to the formulation of effective strategies and policies, aligning with a Holistic Cardiovascular Health Strategy, Gender-Based Healthcare Policies, and Spatial Planning and Environmental Policies.

Child mortality inequalities and socioeconomic determinants of health in Iran, 2016-2018.

Measuring health inequalities is essential to inform policy making and for monitoring implementation to reduce avoidable and unfair differences in health status. We conducted a geospatial analysis of child mortality in Iran using death records from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education from 2016 to 2018 stratified by sex, age, province, and district, and household expenditure and income survey data from the Statistical Center of Iran collected in 2017. We applied multilevel mixed-effect models and detected significant inequality in child mortality and the impact of socioeconomic factors, especially household income. We advocate for using mortality rate for young children (< 5 years old) as an indicator for assessing the impact of interventions to reduce inequalities among various socioeconomic groups. We also recommend to design and implement comprehensive and longitudinal data collection systems for accurate, regular, and specific monitoring of health inequalities.

Developing Iranian sub-national primary health care measurement framework: a mixed-method study.

BACKGROUND: Desired health outcomes are more achievable through strong Primary Health Care (PHC). Using comprehensive and scientific tools, decision-makers are guided to formulate better PHC reforms and policies. This study introduces a sub-national framework based on the World Health Organization (WHO) proposed frameworks for the PHC performance measurement. METHOD: By a mixed-method and qualitative approach, the Iranian sub-national PHC Measurement Framework (PHCMF) was developed through a review of the WHO's PHC measurement conceptual framework (for selecting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)), literature review (academic database), PHC-related national documents, consultations with an advisory committee of national experts (6-meetings), and the Delphi technique for finalizing the framework. RESULTS: The Iranian sub-national PHCMF was finalized with 100 KPIs in three components including Health systems determinants, Service Delivery, and Health system objectives. Based on the result chain domain, most KPIs were related to the output (24 KPIs) and the least were related to the input and the process (9 KPIs). CONCLUSION: Regarding the comprehensiveness of the developed measurement framework due to its focus on all PHC operational levers and key aspects of PHC systems' performance, it can be used as a practical tool for assessing and improving the Iranian sub-national PHC system.

The levels and trends of diabetes prevalence at national and sub-national levels in Iran (1990 - 2016).

Background: The increasing trends in Diabetes prevalence and its attributed burden emphasized as an important issue that needs serious and urgent attention, all over the word. We estimated the mean Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) and the prevalence of Diabetes in aged 25 years or older Iranian adults, by sex, age, province, and year through the time period of 1990 to 2016. Methods: In order to access the most comprehensive relevant data at the same time the systematic data searched added to the data of 5 national surveys and 7 sub-national population based investigations. Two round of modeling, including the Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian Process Regression were used for estimation of mean FPG trend and uncertainties. To estimate Diabetes estimations in target groups, a crosswalk model was applies to the FPG estimates. The model reiterated separately for women and men. All of estimations standardized based on the Iran national census population of 2016 by year, age groups and sexes at national and sub-national levels. Results: In 2016, the number of the diabetic population was 4.43 (3.93-4.99) million (2.38 million women). Between 1990 and 2016, the age-standardized mean of FPG increased from 84.69 mg/dl (79.8-89.8) to 100.5 mg/dl (97.9-103.3) in women and from 82.7 mg/dl (78.3-87.5) to 98.8 mg/dl (96.2-101.4) in men. Simultaneously, with considerable difference, the Diabetes prevalence, has increased from 6.1% (4.7-7.8) to 9.8% (8.7-11.1) in women and from 5.0% 18 (3.8-6.3) to 8.1% (7.2-9.2) in men (75% attributed to population growth). Considering the geographical patterns, the greatest increment in the prevalence of Diabetes detected in the northwestern and the central provinces. Conclusion: Significant increasing trends of Diabetes led to alarming threat, which can make the strategies and goals of our prevention programs out of control. We should plan for more effective communicative interventions for prevention and management of Diabetes, to be designed, implemented and monitored based on the updated scientific evidence. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01197-2.

Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. STUDY DESIGN: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. RESULTS: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. CONCLUSIONS: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.

Regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran: Insight from a National Surveillance of Cancer Survival in Iran (IRANCANSURV).

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate geographical disparity in cancer survival in 9 provincial population-based cancer registries in Iran from 2015 to 2016. MATERIAL AND METHOD: In the current study, data from 90,862 adult patients (aged >15 years) diagnosed with cancer were retrieved from 9 population-based cancer registries across Iran. Five-year survival rates were estimated by applying relative survival approaches. We also applied the international cancer survival standard weights for age standardization. Finally, we calculated the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each province adjusted for age, sex, and cancer sites to estimate the excess hazard ratio of mortality compared to the capital province (Tehran). RESULTS: The largest gap in survival was observed in more curable cancer types, including melanoma (41.4%), ovary (32.3%), cervix (35.0%), prostate (26.7%), and rectum (21.4%), while the observed geographical disparity in lethal cancers such as lung, brain, stomach, and pancreas was less than 15%. Compared to Tehran, we found the highest excess hazard of death in Western Azerbaijan (EHR=1.60, 95% CI 1.51, 1.65), Kermanshah (EHR=1.52, 95% CI=1.44, 1.61), and Kerman (EHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.38, 1.53). The hazard ratio of death was almost identical in Isfahan (EHR=1.04, 95% CI=1.03, 1.06) and Tehran provinces. CONCLUSION: Provinces with higher HDI had better survival rates. IRANCANSURV study showed regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran. Cancer patients in provinces with a higher Human Development Index (HDI) had a higher survival rate and lived longer compared to the patients in provinces with medium and low HDI regions.