How much illegally manufactured fentanyl could the U.S. be consuming?

The spread of illegally manufactured opioids, including fentanyl, has brought unprecedented levels of drug overdose deaths in North America. In some markets, illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF) is essentially displacing heroin, not just being used to adulterate it. It is not possible at this time to provide an accurate point estimate of the amount of IMF consumed in the United States. Yet for various purposes (e.g. assessing changes in production levels and the appropriate role for various supply reduction efforts), it is important to have a sense of scale. This article provides guidance through two thought experiments that provide a hypothetical upper bound on U.S. consumption. The first considers a scenario in which IMF replaces heroin in all illegal opioid markets. The second starts with the number of individuals with an opioid use disorder and considers what total consumption would be if IMF was the only opioid they consumed. Both calculations suggest it is unlikely that the annual consumption of IMF in 2021 could have been more than single digit pure metric tons. For comparison, the most recent best estimates of the amount of cocaine and heroin consumed in the U.S. are 145 and 47 pure metric tons, respectively. The article also raises questions about the limitations of using traditional equianalgesic morphine equivalent dose conversions to estimate the total market consumption of IMF.

Examining Associations Between Licensed and Unlicensed Outlet Density and Cannabis Outcomes From Preopening to Postopening of Recreational Cannabis Outlets.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To expand on epidemiologic studies examining associations between the legalization of recreational cannabis and use among young adults, we examined the associations between licensed and unlicensed cannabis outlet density and cannabis outcomes. METHODS: A total of 1097 young adults aged 21 and older living in Los Angeles County were surveyed before licensed recreational cannabis outlets opened (Time 1: July to December 2017) and after (Time 2: July 2018 to June 2019). Using a database of open licensed and unlicensed cannabis retailers to calculate individual-level cannabis outlet density measures, we examined associations between outlet density within a 4-mile radius of participants' residences with Time 2 outcomes of any past-month use, daily use, intentions to use, quantity used, consequences, and cannabis use disorder (CUD) symptoms. RESULTS: After controlling for demographic factors and cannabis outcomes at a time point prior to their opening (Time 1), licensed cannabis outlets were associated with young adults' cannabis use, heavy use, and intentions, and unlicensed outlets were associated with young adults' heavy cannabis use and CUD symptoms. CONCLUSION AND SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: This study expands beyond studies of outlet prevalence to find that, after controlling for outcomes 1 year prior, licensed and unlicensed outlets were associated with young adults' cannabis outcomes. The current study is among the first to find associations between cannabis use outcomes and density of cannabis outlets among young adults using data from two time points: preopening and postopening of recreational cannabis retailers. Findings can inform policies around the density and placement of cannabis outlets. (Am J Addict 2020;00:00-00).

How will cannabis legalization affect health, safety, and social equity outcomes? It largely depends on the 14 Ps.

Jurisdictions considering or implementing alternatives to cannabis supply prohibition will confront several decisions that will influence health, safety, and social equity outcomes. This essay highlights 14 of these design considerations, which all conveniently begin with the letter P: 1) Production, 2) Profit motive, 3) Power to regulate, 4) Promotion, 5) Prevention and treatment, 6) Policing and enforcement, 7) Penalties, 8) Prior criminal records, 9) Product types, 10) Potency, 11) Purity, 12) Price, 13) Preferences for licenses, and 14) Permanency. For each factor, the paper explains why it is important, describes the various approaches, and highlights how some of the jurisdictions that have legalized have addressed these choices. The primary audiences are decision makers considering alternatives to prohibiting cannabis supply and analysts making projections or conducting evaluations of these changes.

Developing public health regulations for marijuana: lessons from alcohol and tobacco.

Until November 2012, no modern jurisdiction had removed the prohibition on the commercial production, distribution, and sale of marijuana for nonmedical purposes-not even the Netherlands. Government agencies in Colorado and Washington are now charged with granting production and processing licenses and developing regulations for legal marijuana, and other states and countries may follow. Our goal is not to address whether marijuana legalization is a good or bad idea but, rather, to help policymakers understand the decisions they face and some lessons learned from research on public health approaches to regulating alcohol and tobacco over the past century.

Policy designs for cannabis legalization: starting with the eight Ps.

The cannabis policy landscape is changing rapidly. In November 2012 voters in Colorado and Washington State passed ballot initiatives to remove the prohibition on the commercial production, distribution, and possession of cannabis. This paper does not address the question of whether cannabis should be legal; it instead focuses on the design considerations confronting jurisdictions that are pondering a change in cannabis policy. Indeed, whether or not cannabis legalization is net positive or negative for public health and public safety largely depends on regulatory decisions and how they are implemented. This essay presents eight of these design choices which all conveniently begin with the letter "P": production, profit motive, promotion, prevention, potency, purity, price, and permanency.

The Baltic and Nordic responses to the first Taliban poppy ban: Implications for Europe & synthetic opioids today.

The 2000-2001 and the 2022-2023 Taliban opium bans were and could be two of the largest ever disruptions to a major illegal drug market. To help understand potential implications of the current ban for Europe, this paper analyzes how opioid markets in seven Baltic and Nordic countries responded to the earlier ban, using literature review, key informant interviews, and secondary data analysis. The seven nations' markets responded in diverse ways, including rebounding with the same drug (heroin in Norway), substitution to a more potent opioid (fentanyl replacing heroin in Estonia), and substitution to one with lower risk of overdose (buprenorphine replacing heroin in Finland). The responses were not instantaneous, but rather evolved, sometimes over several years. This variety suggests that it can be hard to predict how drug markets will respond to disruptions, but two extreme views can be challenged. It would be naive to imagine that drug markets will not adapt to shocks, but also unduly nihilistic to presume that they will always just bounce back with no lasting effects. Substitution to another way of meeting demand is possible, but that does not always negate fully the benefits of disrupting the original market. Nonetheless, there is historical precedent for a European country's opioid market switching to synthetic opioids when heroin supplies were disrupted. Given how much that switch has increased overdose rates in Canada and the United States, that is a serious concern for Europe at present. A period of reduced opioid supply may be a particularly propitious time to expand treatment services (as Norway did in the early 2000s).

Efficacy of frequent monitoring with swift, certain, and modest sanctions for violations: insights from South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Project.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the public health impact of South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Project, an innovative program requiring individuals arrested for or convicted of alcohol-involved offenses to submit to breathalyzer tests twice per day or wear a continuous alcohol monitoring bracelet. Those testing positive are subject to swift, certain, and modest sanctions. METHODS: We conducted differences-in-differences analyses comparing changes in arrests for driving while under the influence of alcohol (DUI), arrests for domestic violence, and traffic crashes in counties to the program with counties without the program. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2010, more than 17,000 residents of South Dakota-including more than 10% of men aged 18 to 40 years in some counties-had participated in the 24/7 program. At the county level, we documented a 12% reduction in repeat DUI arrests (P = .023) and a 9% reduction in domestic violence arrests (P = .035) following adoption of the program. Evidence for traffic crashes was mixed. CONCLUSIONS: In community supervision settings, frequent alcohol testing with swift, certain, and modest sanctions for violations can reduce problem drinking and improve public health outcomes.

Nine Insights From 10 Years of Legal Cannabis for Nonmedical Purposes.

Whereas the 20th century could be largely characterized as the age of cannabis prohibition, the 21st century may ultimately be known as the era of cannabis legalization. Although several countries and subnational jurisdictions have relaxed laws to allow cannabis to be used for medical purposes, the policy landscape shifted dramatically in 2012 when voters in Colorado and Washington passed ballot initiatives to allow cannabis to be sold to adults for nonmedical purposes. Since then, Canada, Uruguay, and Malta have legalized nonmedical cannabis, and >47% of the US population live in states that have passed laws allowing commercial production and for-profit retail sales. Some countries are now implementing pilot programs for legal supply (eg, the Netherlands, Switzerland), and others are seriously contemplating changing their laws (eg, Germany, Mexico). This commentary offers 9 insights from the first 10 years of legal cannabis for nonmedical purposes, with the goal of informing policy discussions in places considering, implementing, or revising their approach to cannabis legalization: (1) cannabis prices are declining in places with commercial regimes and this matters for several outcomes; (2) noncommercial models are being implemented and seriously considered in some places; (3) policy discussions about cannabis taxes are evolving; (4) the number of cannabis products available in commercial regimes is proliferating; (5) emerging research on higher potency cannabis products raises some public health concerns, but there is still a lot to learn; (6) social equity is playing a larger role in many legalization debates; (7) it takes time to move consumers to the legal market; (8) data collection about cannabis consumption is getting better, but there is much work to do; and (9) ongoing methodological advances should improve our understanding of cannabis policy changes.

Modeling cartel size to inform violence reduction in Mexico.

Estimating stocks and flows is an innovative first step.

Prices and Purchase Sources for Dried Cannabis Flower in the United States, 2019-2020.

Introduction: The price of cannabis has major implications for public health, public safety, social equity, and government revenues. This article examines prices and sources of purchased dried cannabis flower among consumers facing different state laws in the United States. Methods: Repeat cross-sectional survey data were collected from the International Cannabis Policy Study in 2019 and 2020. U.S. respondents were recruited through online commercial panels, ages 16-65, and purchased dried flower in the past year (n=9766). Weighted binary logistic regression models examined legal purchasing in states that had legalized recreational cannabis. Results: Compared with respondents in states with recreational stores, respondents living in "illegal," "medical," and "recreational" states without stores were associated with paying a higher unit price of dried flower (+20.5%, +23.6%, +27.4%, respectively; all p<0.05). The majority of respondents in states with recreational stores last purchased from stores/dispensaries (2019: 66.6%; 2020: 62.0%) and the odds of purchasing legally was greater with each additional year after stores opened (adjusted odds ratio=1.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.37, 1.60). Conclusions: Cannabis prices and purchase behaviors are strongly influenced by its legal status and presence of stores. After states legalize for recreational purposes, it takes multiple years for the legal market to become established as the number of retail stores increase and prices decrease. The findings demonstrate that consumers use sources that they are legally allowed to access, suggesting an increased number of physical retail stores and online delivery services could expand uptake of legal sources in states with recreational cannabis laws.

Cannabis Retail Market Indicators in Five Legal States in the United States: A Public Health Perspective.

PURPOSE: Adult-use cannabis markets are operating in multiple US states and abroad. Sales and licensing data for alcohol and tobacco are often used to understand consumption patterns and evaluate policy changes. Cannabis market data may provide similar insights, although these newly legal markets are complex and evolving, and the state data structures can differ. This study describes variations in market indicators and discusses the utility of cannabis market metrics from a public health perspective. METHODS: We collected data from 5 early-adopting adult-use cannabis states: Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington. Analyses focused on licensed retail outlets and retail sales revenues (pretax). Monthly data were collected from the opening of each state's adult-use market through June 2022. Joinpoint software was used to assess state trends and identify points of inflection in trends. Average sales per retailer for June 2019 and June 2022 were compared. Also described are retailers and revenue per population for 2022. FINDINGS: All states showed 4 distinct periods of growth in retail licensee numbers. The greatest increases typically occurred in the first 3 to 4 months. Growth rates slowed to <1% per month for Colorado, Oregon, and Washington at months 25, 24, and 34, respectively. The number of cannabis retailers per 100,000 residents in June 2022 ranged widely, from 16.8 in Oregon to 3.0 in Massachusetts. Colorado, Oregon, and Washington each showed 4 distinct trend periods in adult-use retail sales: early rapid growth lasting <1 year, subsequent varied growth periods, and then declining sales in the most recent months, following early coronavirus disease 2019 period increases. Sales in Alaska and Massachusetts displayed more stable, consistent growth patterns. Sales per state resident for July 2021 to June 2022 also ranged widely, from $382.97 in Alaska to $180.94 in Washington. IMPLICATIONS: We found some consistencies and some variations in both point-in-time measures and trends in states' adult-use cannabis markets. Differences may relate to varied state policies and general contexts (eg, economies). Market data can be useful for public health monitoring, including understanding the effects of policies intended to protect health and safety. States providing publicly accessible cannabis market data create opportunities for such use. Our results underscore the importance of considering individual state regulatory frameworks and implementation timelines in studies of cannabis legalization.

Comparing organization-focused and state-focused financing strategies on provider-level reach of a youth substance use treatment model: a mixed-method study.

BACKGROUND: Financial barriers in substance use disorder service systems have limited the widespread adoption-i.e., provider-level reach-of evidence-based practices (EBPs) for youth substance use disorders. Reach is essential to maximizing the population-level impact of EBPs. One promising, but rarely studied, type of implementation strategy for overcoming barriers to EBP reach is financing strategies, which direct financial resources in various ways to support implementation. We evaluated financing strategies for the Adolescent Community Reinforcement Approach (A-CRA) EBP by comparing two US federal grant mechanisms, organization-focused and state-focused grants, on organization-level A-CRA reach outcomes. METHOD: A-CRA implementation took place through organization-focused and state-focused grantee cohorts from 2006 to 2021. We used a quasi-experimental, mixed-method design to compare reach between treatment organizations funded by organization-focused versus state-focused grants (164 organizations, 35 states). Using administrative training records, we calculated reach as the per-organization proportion of trained individuals who received certification in A-CRA clinical delivery and/or supervision by the end of grant funding. We tested differences in certification rate by grant type using multivariable linear regression models that controlled for key covariates (e.g., time), and tested threats to internal validity from our quasi-experimental design through a series of sensitivity analyses. We also drew on interviews and surveys collected from the treatment organizations and (when relevant) interviews with state administrators to identify factors that influenced reach. RESULTS: The overall certification rates were 27 percentage points lower in state-focused versus organization-focused grants (p = .01). Sensitivity analyses suggested these findings were not explained by confounding temporal trends nor by organizational or state characteristics. We did not identify significant quantitative moderators of reach outcomes, but qualitative findings suggested certain facilitating factors were more influential for organization-focused grants (e.g., strategic planning) and certain barrier factors were more impactful for state-focused grants (e.g., states finding it difficult to execute grant activities). DISCUSSION: As the first published comparison of EBP reach outcomes between financing strategies, our findings can help guide state and federal policy related to financing strategies for implementing EBPs that reduce youth substance use. Future work should explore contextual conditions under which different financing strategies can support the widespread implementation of EBPs for substance use disorder treatment.

America's Opioid Ecosystem: How Leveraging System Interactions Can Help Curb Addiction, Overdose, and Other Harms.

Opioids play an outsized role in America's drug problems, but they also play a critically important role in medicine. Thus, they deserve special attention. Illegally manufactured opioids (such as fentanyl) are involved in a majority of U.S. drug overdoses, but the problems are broader and deeper than drug fatalities. Depending on the drugs involved, there can be myriad physical and mental health consequences associated with having a substance use disorder. And it is not just those using drugs who suffer. Substance use and related behaviors can significantly affect individuals' families, friends, employers, and wider communities. Efforts to address problems related to opioids are insufficient and sometimes contradictory. Researchers provide a nuanced assessment of America's opioid ecosystem, highlighting how leveraging system interactions can reduce addiction, overdose, suffering, and other harms. At the core of the opioid ecosystem are the individuals who use opioids and their families. Researchers also include detail on ten major components of the opioid ecosystem: substance use disorder treatment, harm reduction, medical care, the criminal legal system, illegal supply and supply control, first responders, the child welfare system, income support and homeless services, employment, and education. The primary audience for this study is policymakers, but it should also be useful for foundations looking for opportunities to create change that have often been overlooked. This study can help researchers better consider the full consequences of policy changes and help members of the media identify the dynamics of interactions that deserve more attention.

The dynamics of deterrence.

Because punishment is scarce, costly, and painful, optimal enforcement strategies will minimize the amount of actual punishment required to effectuate deterrence. If potential offenders are sufficiently deterrable, increasing the conditional probability of punishment (given violation) can reduce the amount of punishment actually inflicted, by "tipping" a situation from its high-violation equilibrium to its low-violation equilibrium. Compared to random or "equal opportunity" enforcement, dynamically concentrated sanctions can reduce the punishment level necessary to tip the system, especially if preceded by warnings. Game theory and some simple and robust Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate these results, which, in addition to their potential for reducing crime and incarceration, may have implications for both management and regulation.

Rapid changes in illegally manufactured fentanyl products and prices in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Synthetic opioids, mostly illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF), were mentioned in 60% of United States (US) drug overdose deaths in 2020, with dramatic variation across states that mirrors variation in IMF supply. However, little is known about IMF markets in the United States and how they are changing. Researchers have previously used data from undercover cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine purchases and seizures to examine how their use and related harms respond to changes in price and availability. This analysis used US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data to address two questions: (i) "To what extent does IMF supply vary over time and geography?" and (ii) "What has happened to the purity-adjusted price of IMF?" METHODS: We developed descriptive statistics and visualizations using data from 66 713 observations mentioning IMF and/or heroin from the DEA's System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE; now STARLIMS) from 2013 to 2021. Price regressions were estimated with city-level fixed effects examining IMF-only powder observations with purity and price information at the low-to-medium wholesale level (>1 g to ≤100 g; n = 964). RESULTS: From 2013 to 2021, the share of heroin and/or IMF observations mentioning IMF grew from near zero to more than two-thirds. The share of heroin observations also containing IMF grew from <1% to ~40%. There is important geographic variation: in California, most IMF seizures involved counterfeit tablets, whereas New York and Massachusetts largely involved powder formulation. The median price per pure gram of IMF powder sold at the >10 to ≤100 g level fell by more than 50% from 2016 to 2021; regression analyses suggested an average annual decline of 17% (P < 0.001). However, this price decline appears to have been driven by observations from the Northeast. CONCLUSIONS: Since 2013, the illegally manufactured fentanyl problem in the United States has become more deadly and more diverse.

Cannabis legalization and traffic injuries: exploring the role of supply mechanisms.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In Uruguay, residents age 18 and older seeking legal cannabis must register with the government and choose one of three supply mechanisms: self-cultivation, non-profit cannabis clubs or pharmacies. This is the first paper to measure the association between type of legal cannabis supply mechanism and traffic crashes involving injuries. DESIGN: Ecological study using ordinary least squares regression to examine how department-level variation in registrations (overall and by type) is associated with traffic crashes involving injuries. SETTING: Uruguay. CASES: 532 department-quarters. MEASUREMENTS: Quarterly cannabis registration counts at the department level and incident-level traffic crash data were obtained from government agencies. The analyses controlled for department-level economic and demographic characteristics and, as a robustness check, we included traffic violations involving alcohol for departments reporting this information. Department-level data on crashes, registrations and alcohol violations were denominated by the number of residents ages 18 and older. FINDINGS: From 2013 to 2019, the average number of registrations at the department-quarter level per 10 000 residents age 18 and older for self-cultivation, club membership and pharmacy purchasing were 17.7 (SD = 16.8), 3.6 (SD = 8.6), and 25.1 (SD = 50.4), respectively. In our multivariate regression analyses, we did not find a statistically significant association between the total number of registrations and traffic crashes with injuries (ß = -0.007; P = 0.398; 95% CI = -0.023, 0.01). Analyses focused on the specific supply mechanisms found a consistent, positive and statistically significant association between the number of individuals registered as self-cultivators and the number of traffic crashes with injuries (ß = 0.194; P = 0.008; 95% CI = 0.058, 0.329). Associations for other supply mechanisms were inconsistent across the various model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: In Uruguay, the number of people allowed to self-cultivate cannabis is positively associated with traffic crashes involving injuries. Individual-level analyses are needed to assess better the factors underlying this association.

Assessing options for cannabis law reform: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with stakeholders in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: A number of jurisdictions are considering or implementing different options for cannabis law reform, including New Zealand. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) helps facilitate the resolution of complex policy decisions by breaking them down into key criteria and drawing on the combined knowledge of experts from various backgrounds. AIMS: To rank cannabis law reform options by facilitating expert stakeholders to express preferences for projected reform outcomes using MCDA. METHODS: A group of cannabis policy experts projected the outcomes of eight cannabis policy options (i.e., prohibition, decriminalization, social clubs, government monopoly, not-for-profit trusts, strict regulation, light regulation, and unrestricted market) based on five criteria (i.e., health and social harm, illegal market size, arrests, tax income, treatment services). A facilitated workshop of 42 key national stakeholders expressed preferences for different reform outcomes and doing so generated relative weights for each criterion and level. The resulting weights were then used to rank the eight policy options. RESULTS: The relative weighting of the criteria were: "reducing health and social harm" (46%), "reducing arrests" (31%), "reducing the illegal market" (13%), "expanding treatment" (8%) and "earning tax" (2%). The top ranked reform options were: "government monopoly" (81%), "not-for-profit" (73%) and "strict market regulation" (65%). These three received higher scores due to their projected lower impact on health and social harm, medium reduction in arrests, and medium reduction in the illegal market. The "lightly regulated market" option scored lower largely due its projected greater increase in health and social harm. "Prohibition" ranked lowest due to its lack of impact on reducing the number of arrests or size of the illegal market. CONCLUSION: Strictly regulated legal market options were ranked higher than both the current prohibition, and alternatively, more lightly regulated legal market options, as they were projected to minimize health and social harms while substantially reducing arrests and the illegal market.

Trends in the use of cannabis products in Canada and the USA, 2018 - 2020: Findings from the International Cannabis Policy Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is little information on consumption patterns across the diverse range of cannabis product types. This paper examines trends in consumption patterns in Canada and the United States (US) between 2018-2020. DESIGN: Repeat cross-sectional surveys were conducted as part of the International Cannabis Policy Study online survey in 2018 (n=27,024), 2019 (n=45,426), and 2020 (n=45,180). SETTING: Respondents were recruited from commercial panels in Canada and US states that had and had not legalized non-medical cannabis (US 'legal' and 'illegal' states, respectively). PARTICIPANTS: Respondents were male and female participants aged 16-65 years. MEASUREMENTS: Data on frequency and consumption amounts were collected for nine types of cannabis products, including dried flower and processed products (e.g., oils and concentrates). Consumers were also asked about mixing cannabis with tobacco. Socio-demographic information was collected. FINDINGS: Dried flower was the most commonly used product, although use in the past 12 months declined between 2018 and 2020 in Canada (81% to 73%), US legal (78% to 72%) and illegal states (81% to 76%; p<0.05 for all). Prevalence of past 12-month use increased for virtually all other product forms, although prevalence of daily use remained stable across years. In 2020, edibles and vape oils were the most commonly used products after flower. Use of non-flower products was highest in US legal states, although similar trends were observed in all jurisdictions. Males were more likely to report using processed products, and vape oils were the most commonly processed product among 16-20-year-olds. Daily use of cannabis flower increased in US legal and illegal states, and average joint size increased across all jurisdictions over time. CONCLUSIONS: Dried flower remains the dominant product in Canada and the US; however, use of processed cannabis products has increased, with the largest increases observed in legal cannabis markets.