Using liver stiffness to predict and monitor the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is recommended for disease prognostication and monitoring. We evaluated if LSM, using transient elastography, and LSM changes predict decompensation and mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study of compensated patients at risk of ALD from Denmark and Austria. We evaluated the risk of decompensation and all-cause mortality, stratified for compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD: baseline LSM ≥10 kPa) and LSM changes after a median of 2 years. In patients with cACLD, we defined LSM changes as (A) LSM increase ≥20% ("cACLD increasers") and (B) follow-up LSM <10 kPa or <20 kPa with LSM decrease ≥20% ("cACLD decreasers"). In patients without cACLD, we defined follow-up LSM ≥10 kPa as an LSM increase ("No cACLD increasers"). The remaining patients were considered LSM stable. RESULTS: We followed 536 patients for 3,008 patient-years-median age 57 years (IQR 49-63), baseline LSM 8.1 kPa (IQR 4.9-21.7)-371 patients (69%) had follow-up LSM after a median of 25 months (IQR 17-38), 41 subsequently decompensated and 55 died. Of 125 with cACLD at baseline, 14% were "cACLD increasers" and 43% "cACLD decreasers", while 13% of patients without cACLD were "No cACLD increasers" (n = 33/246). Baseline LSM, follow-up LSM and LSM changes accurately predicted decompensation (C-index: baseline LSM 0.85; follow-up LSM 0.89; LSM changes 0.85) and mortality (C-index: baseline LSM 0.74; follow-up LSM 0.74; LSM changes 0.70). When compared to "cACLD decreasers", "cACLD increasers" had significantly lower decompensation-free survival and higher risks of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio 4.39, p = 0.004) and mortality (hazard ratio 3.22, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: LSM by transient elastography predicts decompensation and all-cause mortality in patients with compensated ALD both at diagnosis and when used for monitoring. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Patients at risk of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at significant risk of progressive disease and adverse outcomes. Monitoring is essential for optimal disease surveillance and patient guidance, but non-invasive monitoring tools are lacking. In this study we demonstrate that liver stiffness measurement (LSM), using transient elastography, and LSM changes after a median of 2 years, can predict decompensation and all-cause mortality in patients at risk of ALD with and without compensated advanced chronic liver disease. These findings are in line with results from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, hepatitis C and primary sclerosing cholangitis, and support the clinical utility of LSM, using transient elastography, for disease prognostication and monitoring in chronic liver diseases including ALD, as recommended by the Baveno VII.

Sphingolipids Are Depleted in Alcohol-Related Liver Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol disturbs hepatic lipid synthesis and transport, but the role of lipid dysfunction in alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is unclear. In this biopsy-controlled, prospective, observational study, we characterized the liver and plasma lipidomes in patients with early ALD. METHODS: We performed mass spectrometry-based lipidomics of paired liver and plasma samples from 315 patients with ALD and of plasma from 51 matched healthy controls. We associated lipid levels with histologic fibrosis, inflammation, and steatosis with correction for multiple testing and adjustment for confounders. We further investigated sphingolipid regulation by means of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction sequencing of microRNA, prediction of liver-related events, and tested causality with Mendelian randomization. RESULTS: We detected 198 lipids in the liver and 236 lipids in the circulation from 18 lipid classes. Most sphingolipids (sphingomyelins and ceramides) and phosphocholines were co-down-regulated in both liver and plasma, where lower abundance correlated with higher fibrosis stage. Sphingomyelins showed the most pronounced negative correlation to fibrosis, mirrored by negative correlations in both liver and plasma with hepatic inflammation. Reduced sphingomyelins predicted future liver-related events. This seemed to be characteristic of "pure ALD," as sphingomyelin levels were higher in patients with concomitant metabolic syndrome and ALD/nonalcoholic fatty liver disease overlap. Mendelian randomization in FinnGen and UK Biobanks indicated ALD as the cause of low sphingomyelins, and alcohol use disorder did not correlate with genetic susceptibility to low sphingomyelin levels. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-related liver fibrosis is characterized by selective and progressive lipid depletion in liver and blood, particularly sphingomyelins, which also associates with progression to liver-related events.

Screening for Fibrosis Promotes Lifestyle Changes: A Prospective Cohort Study in 4796 Individuals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early detection of liver fibrosis is believed to promote lifestyle changes. We evaluated self-reported changes in alcohol intake, diet, exercise, and weight after participating in a screening study for liver fibrosis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective screening study of individuals at risk of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We provided lifestyle advice to all participants and evaluated lifestyle changes by questionnaires after 1 week and 6 months, with re-examination of a subgroup after 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 1850 at risk of ALD and 2946 at risk of MASLD were included, of whom 383 (8%) were screening positive (transient elastography ≥8 kPa). A total of 84% replied to the 6-month questionnaire. In ALD participants, excessive drinking decreased from 46% to 32% after 6 months. Only 15% reported increased drinking, without differences between screening positive and negative individuals (P = .698). In high-risk drinkers, a positive screening test predicted abstinence or decreased alcohol use after 6 months (odds ratio, 2.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-4.57; P = .005). After 2 years, excessive drinking decreased from 52% to 41% in a subgroup of 752 individuals and a positive screening test predicted abstinence or decreased alcohol use after 2 years (odds ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.11, P = .023). MASLD participants showed similar improvements: 35% improved their diet, 22% exercised more, and 13% reported a weight loss ≥5% after 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for liver fibrosis is associated with sustained improvements in alcohol consumption, diet, weight, and exercise in at-risk ALD and MASLD. The changes are most pronounced in screening positive participants but not limited to this group.

Effect of Calorie-Unrestricted Low-Carbohydrate, High-Fat Diet Versus High-Carbohydrate, Low-Fat Diet on Type 2 Diabetes and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear if a low-carbohydrate, high-fat (LCHF) diet is a possible treatment strategy for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and the effect on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been investigated. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of a calorie-unrestricted LCHF diet, with no intention of weight loss, on T2DM and NAFLD compared with a high-carbohydrate, low-fat (HCLF) diet. DESIGN: 6-month randomized controlled trial with a 3-month follow-up. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03068078). SETTING: Odense University Hospital in Denmark from November 2016 until June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 165 participants with T2DM. INTERVENTION: Two calorie-unrestricted diets: LCHF diet with 50 to 60 energy percent (E%) fat, less than 20E% carbohydrates, and 25E% to 30E% proteins and HCLF diet with 50E% to 60E% carbohydrates, 20E% to 30E% fats, and 20E% to 25E% proteins. MEASUREMENTS: Glycemic control, serum lipid levels, metabolic markers, and liver biopsies to assess NAFLD. RESULTS: The mean age was 56 years (SD, 10), and 58% were women. Compared with the HCLF diet, participants on the LCHF diet had greater improvements in hemoglobin A1c (mean difference in change, -6.1 mmol/mol [95% CI, -9.2 to -3.0 mmol/mol] or -0.59% [CI, -0.87% to -0.30%]) and lost more weight (mean difference in change, -3.8 kg [CI, -6.2 to -1.4 kg]). Both groups had higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lower triglycerides at 6 months. Changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were less favorable in the LCHF diet group than in the HCLF diet group (mean difference in change, 0.37 mmol/L [CI, 0.17 to 0.58 mmol/L] or 14.3 mg/dL [CI, 6.6 to 22.4 mg/dL]). No statistically significant between-group changes were detected in the assessment of NAFLD. Changes were not sustained at the 9-month follow-up. LIMITATION: Open-label trial, self-reported adherence, unintended weight loss, and lack of adjustment for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSION: Persons with T2DM on a 6-month, calorie-unrestricted, LCHF diet had greater clinically meaningful improvements in glycemic control and weight compared with those on an HCLF diet, but the changes were not sustained 3 months after intervention. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Novo Nordisk Foundation.

Using the ELF test, FIB-4 and NAFLD fibrosis score to screen the population for liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a need for accurate biomarkers of fibrosis for population screening of alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (ALD, NAFLD). We compared the performance of the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test to the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), using transient elastography as the reference standard. METHODS: We prospectively included participants from the general population, and people at risk of ALD or NAFLD. Screening positive participants (TE ≥8 kPa) were offered a liver biopsy. We measured concomitant ELF, FIB-4, and NFS using validated cut-offs: ≥9.8, ≥1.3, ≥-1.45, respectively. RESULTS: We included 3,378 participants (1,973 general population, 953 at risk of ALD, 452 at risk of NAFLD), with a median age of 57 years (IQR: 51-63). Two hundred-and-forty-two were screening positive (3.4% in the general population, 12%/14% who were at-risk of ALD/NAFLD, respectively). Most participants with TE <8 kPa also had ELF <9.8 (88%) despite a poor overall correlation between ELF and TE (Spearman´s rho = 0.207). ELF was associated with significantly fewer false positives (11%) than FIB-4 and NFS (35% and 45%), while retaining a low rate of false negatives (<8%). A screening strategy of FIB-4 followed by ELF in indeterminate cases resulted in false positives in 8%, false negatives in 4% and the correct classification in 88% of cases. We performed a liver biopsy in 155/242 (64%) patients who screened positive, of whom 54 (35%) had advanced fibrosis (≥F3). ELF diagnosed advanced fibrosis with significantly better diagnostic accuracy than FIB-4 and NFS: AUROC 0.85 (95% CI 0.79-0.92) vs. 0.73 (0.64-0.81) and 0.66 (0.57-0.76), respectively. CONCLUSION: The ELF test alone or combined with FIB-4 for liver fibrosis screening in the general population and at-risk groups reduces the number of futile referrals compared to FIB-4 and NFS, without overlooking true cases. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We need referral pathways that are efficient at detecting advanced fibrosis from alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the population, but without causing futile referrals or excessive use of resources. This study indicates that a sequential test strategy of FIB-4 followed by the ELF test in indeterminate cases leads to few patients referred for confirmatory liver stiffness measurement, while retaining a high rate of detected cases, and at low direct costs. This two-step referral pathway could be used by primary care for mass, targeted, or opportunistic screening for liver fibrosis in the population. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT03308916.

Validation of scores of PRO-C3 to predict liver-related events in alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk prediction in alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO-C3 models to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO-C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. RESULTS: In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow-up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2-6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7-5.6). On top of PRO-C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO-C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C-statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.78), PRO-C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C-statistics. Compared to low-risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high-risk patients (>11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9-26.8, p < .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p < .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: PRO-C3-based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.

Hepatorenal Index by B-Mode Ratio Versus Imaging and Fatty Liver Index to Diagnose Steatosis in Alcohol-Related and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the hepatorenal index by B-mode ratio to diagnose hepatic steatosis, compared to ultrasound steatosis score, controlled attenuation parameter, and the fatty liver index using histology as the gold standard. METHODS: We prospectively included participants with alcohol-related or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease for same-day noninvasive investigations and liver biopsy. RESULTS: We included 137 participants, 72% male, median age 60 years (53-65) and body mass index 32 kg/m2 (28-38). Eighty percent had steatosis (S0/S1/S2/S3 = 20/37/24/19%). B-mode ratio had moderate diagnostic accuracy for any steatosis (≥S1, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.88), significant steatosis (≥S2, AUROC = 0.76; 0.66-0.85), and severe steatosis (=S3, AUROC = 0.74; 0.62-0.86), independent of disease etiology. The cutoff values to rule-out and rule-in any steatosis were 1.09 and 1.45. While B-mode ratio and controlled attenuation parameter correlated poorly, their diagnostic accuracies were comparable to each other and to ultrasound steatosis scoring. Fatty liver index did not differ from B-mode ratio in detecting any steatosis but had poor accuracy to detect higher steatosis grades. B-mode ratio measurements failed in 12% of patients, compared to 1% for ultrasound steatosis scoring and 2% for controlled attenuation parameter. CONCLUSION: The hepatorenal index by B-mode ratio diagnose steatosis with moderate accuracy in patients with alcohol-related or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, comparable to B-mode ultrasound steatosis scoring and controlled attenuation parameter. However, its clinical use is limited by a high failure rate.

Two-dimensional shear wave elastography predicts survival in advanced chronic liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a tool used to screen for significant fibrosis and portal hypertension. The aim of this retrospective multicentre study was to develop an easy tool using LSM for clinical outcomes in advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) patients. DESIGN: This international multicentre cohort study included a derivation ACLD patient cohort with valid two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) results. Clinical and laboratory parameters at baseline and during follow-up were recorded. LSM by transient elastography (TE) was also recorded if available. The primary outcome was overall mortality. The secondary outcome was the development of first/further decompensation. RESULTS: After screening 2148 patients (16 centres), 1827 patients (55 years, 62.4% men) were included in the 2D-SWE cohort, with median liver SWE (L-SWE) 11.8 kPa and a model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score of 8. Combination of MELD score and L-SWE predict independently of mortality (AUC 0.8). L-SWE cut-off at ≥20 kPa combined with MELD ≥10 could stratify the risk of mortality and first/further decompensation in ACLD patients. The 2-year mortality and decompensation rates were 36.9% and 61.8%, respectively, in the 305 (18.3%) high-risk patients (with L-SWE ≥20 kPa and MELD ≥10), while in the 944 (56.6%) low-risk patients, these were 1.1% and 3.5%, respectively. Importantly, this M10LS20 algorithm was validated by TE-based LSM and in an additional cohort of 119 patients with valid point shear SWE-LSM. CONCLUSION: The M10LS20 algorithm allows risk stratification of patients with ACLD. Patients with L-SWE ≥20 kPa and MELD ≥10 should be followed closely and receive intensified care, while patients with low risk may be managed at longer intervals.

Metabolic and Genetic Risk Factors Are the Strongest Predictors of Severity of Alcohol-Related Liver Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk for developing alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) varies greatly. We hypothesized that metabolic risk factors and genetic polymorphisms predict severity of ALD. METHODS: Biopsy-controlled, cross-sectional study in patients with a history of excessive drinking. We measured the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), plasma triglycerides, high- and low-density lipoproteins (HDL, LDL), and total cholesterol. Moreover, we genotyped four single nucleotide polymorphisms in PNPLA3 (rs738409C>G), TM6SF2 (rs58542926C>T), MBOAT7 (rs641738C>T), and HSD17B13 (rs72613567T>TA). We assessed predictors of higher fibrosis stage using multivariable ordered logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 325 included patients, 25% had severe fibrosis or cirrhosis and 59% had HOMA-IR ≥2.5. HOMA-IR increased for each fibrosis stage, while there was a similar decrease in LDL and total cholesterol. Individuals with risk variant PNPLA3 rs738409-G or TM6SF2 rs58542926-T had higher fibrosis stage. In multivariable regression, HOMA-IR ≥2.5 (OR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.90-4.87), LDL <2.60 mmol/L (OR = 2.05, 95% CI 1.33-3.16), TM6SF2 rs58542926-T (OR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.17-3.37), age above 50 years (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.03-2.70), and PNPLA3 rs738409-G (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.11-2.12) independently predicted higher fibrosis stage. Independent predictors of hepatic inflammatory activity were HOMA-IR, active drinking, age, and PNPLA3 risk variant. Active drinking, elevated triglycerides, and PNPLA3 risk variant predicted steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance is the strongest predictor of liver fibrosis stage and hepatic inflammation in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. Genetic susceptibility further aggravates this risk. These data highlight the clinical value of detailed metabolic and genetic profiling of patients with excessive alcohol use.

Only one-third of referrals for fatty liver disease are on time: real-world study reveals opportunities to avoid unnecessary and delayed referrals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease is a global health concern, but in the absence of specific guidelines, current referral patterns differ according to the preferences of the general practitioners. Outpatient Gastroenterology clinics spend futile resources on liver-healthy patients while diagnosing decompensated patients delayed. We aimed to describe referral patterns to a regional outpatient Gastroenterology clinic. METHODS: We reviewed 9684 referrals from primary care for suspected liver disease in the years 2016-2017, during two years. Data were extracted from the patients' hospital records to assess the clinical workup and patient outcomes until a mean of 43 months after the time of referral. Referrals were categorized as unnecessary (no signs of liver disease), timely (significant fibrosis/compensated cirrhosis), or delayed (decompensated cirrhosis). RESULTS: We included 375 patient referrals from primary care. The main reason for referral was elevated transaminases. More than half (54%) of patients had no signs of liver disease, being unnecessarily referred for evaluation, while 17% had decompensated liver disease and were thus referred too late. CONCLUSIONS: Only one-third of patients referred on suspicion of liver disease were referred on time, either before presenting with decompensated liver cirrhosis or with some evidence of significant liver disease, e.g., liver fibrosis. There is a huge unmet need for clinical referral pathways in primary care. Strengths and Limitations of this StudyA strength of this study is the complete mapping of all potential referrals to the outpatient clinic in the two-year period. Instead of retrieving the historic data by ICD-10 diagnosis codes, and reflecting only those patients where the GP clearly suspects liver disease, we have a strong reliance on our methods. We screened all potentially relevant referrals, e.g., referrals due to weight loss or fatigue, which may reflect symptoms of cirrhosis. Thereby we are confident that we have not missed any patients that originally were referred with unspecific symptoms, but after evaluation are diagnosed with liver disease.Another strength of our study is the long follow-up period, which allows us to fully evaluate the course for the individual patient, and the potential later coming diagnoses.Finally, it is a strength of the study that we were not exclusive to one liver disease etiology, both ALD and NAFLD etiology were included in the study.A limitation of this study is the use of historic data, and the fact that it is a single-center study, showing only the referral patterns in one outpatient Gastroenterology clinic.

Prognostic performance of 7 biomarkers compared to liver biopsy in early alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol is the most common cause of liver-related mortality and morbidity. We therefore aimed to assess and compare the prognostic performance of elastography and blood-based markers to predict time to the first liver-related event, severe infection, and all-cause mortality in patients with a history of excess drinking. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study in patients with early, compensated alcohol-related liver disease. At baseline, we obtained a liver biopsy, transient elastography (TE), 2-dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE), enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF), FibroTest, fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), non-alcoholic fatty liver fibrosis score (NFS) and Forns index. We compared C-statistics and time-dependent AUC for prognostication. We used validated cut-off points to create 3 risk groups for each test: low, intermediate and high risk. RESULTS: We followed 462 patients for a median of 49 months (IQR 31-70). Median age was 57 years, 76% were males, 20% had advanced fibrosis. Eighty-four patients (18%) developed a liver-related event after a median of 18 months (7-34). TE had the highest prognostic accuracy, with a C-statistic of 0.876, and time-dependent AUC at 5 years of 0.889, comparable to 2D-SWE and ELF. TE, ELF and 2D-SWE outperformed FibroTest, FIB4, NFS, Forns index and biopsy-verified fibrosis stage. Compared to patients with TE <10 kPa, the hazard ratios for liver-related events for TE 10-15 kPa were 8.1 (3.2-20.4), and 27.9 (13.8-56.8) for TE >15 kPa. Periods of excessive drinking during follow-up increased the risk of progressing to liver-related events, except for patients in the low-risk groups. CONCLUSION: TE, ELF and 2D-SWE are highly accurate prognostic markers in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. Easy-to-use cut-offs can distinguish between substantially different risk profiles. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol is the leading cause of death and illness due to liver disease. In this study, we assessed the ability of biomarkers to predict the risk of developing symptomatic liver disease in patients with early stages of alcohol-related liver disease. We found that several tests accurately predicted the risk of liver-related events such as ascites, esophageal varices and hepatic encephalopathy during an average follow-up of 4.1 years. Liver stiffness measurements by ultrasound elastography and the enhanced liver fibrosis test performed best. By using them, we were able to stratify patients into 3 groups with significantly different risks.

Diagnostic accuracy of routine liver function tests to identify patients with significant and advanced alcohol-related liver fibrosis.

AIMS: Alcohol is the leading cause of cirrhosis, but most patients go undetected until decompensation occurs despite frequent contacts with the healthcare system. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of routine liver function tests compared with indirect and direct fibrosis markers and to assess doctors' abilities to diagnose significant and advanced alcohol-related liver fibrosis. METHODS: This study was a retrospective evaluation of liver function tests for diagnosing alcohol-related liver disease compared to indirect fibrosis tests, the ELF test, and transient elastography. We also surveyed nine doctors who were presented with 225 patient cases from a cross-sectional, biopsy-controlled, single-centre study that evaluated diagnostic tools for alcohol-related liver fibrosis. The doctors assessed each case for significant (≥F2) or advanced (≥F3) fibrosis. We assessed inter-rater variability with Fleiss' kappa. RESULTS: Routine liver function tests had poor diagnostic accuracy (highest area under the ROC curve for platelet count = 0.752) and poor sensitivities (10%-67%) when using the upper or lower normal limits as cut-offs. Indirect fibrosis indices performed significantly better but were still inferior to the ELF test and transient elastography. The nine doctors disagreed substantially in their predictions, with Fleiss' kappa of 0.24 (95% CI0.22-0.26) and 0.51 (0.44-0.55) for significant and advanced fibrosis. All nine doctors exhibited poor case-finding abilities with sensitivities of 22-93%. CONCLUSIONS: When using routine liver function tests, doctors may fail to diagnose more than half of all alcohol-overusing patients with advanced fibrosis, probably because they rely on upper and lower normal limits of routine liver function tests.

Prediction of liver fibrosis severity in alcoholic liver disease by human microfibrillar-associated protein 4.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a public health concern that is the cause of half of all cirrhosis-related deaths. Early detection of fibrosis, ideally in the precirrhotic stage, is a key strategy for improving ALD outcomes and for preventing progression to cirrhosis. Previous studies identified the blood-borne marker human microfibrillar-associated protein 4 (MFAP4) as a biomarker for detection of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related fibrosis. AIM: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of MFAP4 to detect ALD-induced fibrosis. METHOD: We performed a prospective, liver biopsy-controlled study involving 266 patients with prior or current alcohol overuse. Patients were split into a training and a validation cohort. RESULTS: MFAP4 was present in fibrotic hepatic tissue and serum MFAP4 levels increased with fibrosis grade. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for detection of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) in the training cohort and 0.91 (95% CI 0.79-1.00) in the validation cohort. For detection of advanced fibrosis, the AUROC was 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94) in the training cohort and 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-1.00) in the validation cohort. The diagnostic accuracy did not differ between MFAP4 and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test or transient elastography (TE) in an intention-to-diagnose analysis. MFAP4 did not predict hepatic decompensation in a time-to-decompensation analysis in a subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: MFAP4 is a novel biomarker that can detect ALD-related fibrosis with high accuracy.

Controlled attenuation parameter and alcoholic hepatic steatosis: Diagnostic accuracy and role of alcohol detoxification.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) is a novel non-invasive measure of hepatic steatosis, but it has not been evaluated in alcoholic liver disease. Therefore, we aimed to validate CAP for the assessment of biopsy-verified alcoholic steatosis and to study the effect of alcohol detoxification on CAP. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional biopsy-controlled diagnostic study in four European liver centres. Consecutive alcohol-overusing patients underwent concomitant CAP, regular ultrasound, and liver biopsy. In addition, we measured CAP before and after admission for detoxification in a separate single-centre cohort. RESULTS: A total of 562 patients were included in the study: 269 patients in the diagnostic cohort with steatosis scores S0, S1, S2, and S3 = 77 (28%), 94 (35%), 64 (24%), and 34 (13%), respectively. CAP diagnosed any steatosis and moderate steatosis with fair accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] ≥S1 = 0.77; 0.71-0.83 and AUC ≥S2 = 0.78; 0.72-0.83), and severe steatosis with good accuracy (AUC S3 = 0.82; 0.75-0.88). CAP was superior to bright liver echo pattern by regular ultrasound. CAP above 290 dB/m ruled in any steatosis with 88% specificity and 92% positive predictive value, while CAP below 220 dB/m ruled out steatosis with 90% sensitivity, but 62% negative predictive value. In the 293 patients who were admitted 6.3 days (interquartile range 4-6) for detoxification, CAP decreased by 32 ±â€¯47 dB/m (p <0.001). Body mass index predicted higher CAP in both cohorts, irrespective of drinking pattern. Obese patients with body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 had a significantly higher CAP, which did not decrease significantly during detoxification. CONCLUSIONS: CAP has a good diagnostic accuracy for diagnosing severe alcoholic liver steatosis and can be used to rule in any steatosis. In non-obese but not in obese, patients, CAP rapidly declines after alcohol withdrawal. LAY SUMMARY: CAP is a new ultrasound-based technique for measuring fat content in the liver, but has never been tested for fatty liver caused by alcohol. Herein, we examined 562 patients in a multicentre setting. We show that CAP highly correlates with liver fat, and patients with a CAP value above 290 dB/m were highly likely to have more than 5% fat in their livers, determined by liver biopsy. CAP was also better than regular ultrasound for determining the severity of alcoholic fatty-liver disease. Finally, we show that three in four (non-obese) patients rapidly decrease in CAP after short-term alcohol withdrawal. In contrast, obese alcohol-overusing patients were more likely to have higher CAP values than lean patients, irrespective of drinking.

Plasma cathepsin D as an early indicator of alcohol-related liver disease.

Background & Aims: People who drink alcohol excessively are at increased risk of developing metabolic dysfunction and alcohol-related liver disease (MetALD) or the more severe form alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). One of the most significant challenges concerns the early detection of MetALD/ALD. Previously, we have demonstrated that the lysosomal enzyme cathepsin D (CTSD) is an early marker for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Here, we hypothesized that plasma CTSD can also serve as an early indicator of MetALD/ALD. Methods: We included 303 persistent heavy drinkers classified as having MetALD or ALD (n = 152) and abstinent patients with a history of excessive drinking (n = 151). Plasma CTSD levels of patients with MetALD/ALD without decompensation were compared with 40 healthy controls. Subsequently, the relationship between plasma CTSD levels and hepatic histological scores was established. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were generated to assess the precision of plasma CTSD levels in detecting MetALD/ALD. Lastly, plasma CTSD levels were compared between abstainers and drinkers. Results: Plasma CTSD levels were higher in patients with MetALD/ALD compared to healthy controls. While hepatic disease parameters (AST/ALT ratio, liver stiffness measurement) were higher at advanced histopathological stages (assessed by liver biopsy), plasma CTSD levels were already elevated at early histopathological stages. Furthermore, combining plasma CTSD levels with liver stiffness measurement and AST/ALT ratio yielded enhanced diagnostic precision (AUC 0.872) in detecting MetALD/ALD in contrast to the utilization of CTSD alone (AUC 0.804). Plasma CTSD levels remained elevated in abstainers. Conclusion: Elevated levels of CTSD in the circulation can serve as an early indicator of MetALD/ALD. Impact and implications: Alcohol-related liver disease is the leading cause of liver disease-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, the currently available non-invasive methods to diagnose MetALD/ALD are only able to detect advanced stages of MetALD/ALD. Here, we demonstrate that plasma levels of the lysosomal enzyme cathepsin D are already elevated at early stages of MetALD/ALD. Moreover, cathepsin D levels outperformed the currently available non-invasive methods to detect MetALD/ALD. Plasma levels of cathepsin D could therefore be a useful non-invasive marker for detection of MetALD/ALD.

Infections increase the risk of decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease.

Background & Aims: Infections are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and worsen prognosis. We evaluated the incidence of infections and their impact on decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) during long-term follow-up. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study of patients in secondary care with a history of excess alcohol intake, no prior decompensation, and with liver biopsies along with clinical investigations conducted at baseline. During follow-up, we reviewed the patients' electronic healthcare records for cases of infections, hospitalizations, transient elastography measurements, decompensations, all-cause mortality, and alcohol intake. Results: We included 461 patients with a mean age of 56±10 years (76% males; fibrosis stage F0-1/F2/F3-4 = 259/107/93 [56%/23%/20%]). During a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.9-6.3), 134 patients (29%) developed a total of 312 infections, most frequently pneumonia (106/312, 34%) and urinary tract infections (57/312, 18%). Excessive alcohol intake during follow-up, smoking ≥30 pack years, MELD score and elevated liver stiffness during follow-up were independent predictors of infections. Patients who developed at least one infection had a significantly increased risk of subsequent decompensation (hazard ratio 4.98, 95% CI 2.47-10.03) and death (hazard ratio 8.24, 95% CI 4.65-14.59). Infections increased the risk of decompensation and death independently of baseline fibrosis stage, age, gender, and MELD score. Conclusions: Almost one-third of patients with early ALD develop an infection, which worsens their prognosis by increasing the risk of decompensation and death. The risk of infections increases with liver disease severity and ongoing harmful use of alcohol. Impact and implications: This study reveals that infections significantly worsen the prognosis of patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), increasing the likelihood of decompensation and death by up to eight times. These findings, pertinent to healthcare providers, researchers, and policymakers, emphasize the importance of early prevention and management of infections in patients with ALD, even those in early stages who may be asymptomatic. It was observed that nearly one-third of patients with early-stage ALD developed infections over 4.5 years, with risk factors including alcohol overuse, smoking, and higher MELD scores. The research underscores the critical need to incorporate these insights into clinical practice and public health policies to improve patient outcomes and mitigate the impact of infections in patients with ALD.

Rifaximin-α for liver fibrosis in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (GALA-RIF): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is the leading cause of liver-related mortality worldwide. The gut-liver axis is considered a key driver in alcohol-related liver disease. Rifaximin-α improves gut-barrier function and reduces systemic inflammation in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of rifaximin-α with placebo in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. METHODS: GALA-RIF was an investigator-initiated, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-centre, phase 2 trial done at Odense University Hospital in Denmark. Eligible participants were adults (aged 18-75 years) who had current or previous alcohol overuse (at least 1 year with ≥24 g of alcohol per day for women and ≥36 g of alcohol per day for men), biopsy-proven alcohol-related liver disease, and no previous hepatic decompensation. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) through a web-based randomisation system to receive oral rifaximin-α (550 mg) twice daily or matched placebo for 18 months. Randomisation was done in blocks of four and stratified according to fibrosis stage and alcohol abstinence. Participants, sponsor, investigators, and nurses involved in the study were masked to the randomisation outcome. The primary endpoint was a histological decrease from baseline to 18-month treatment of at least one fibrosis stage, according to the Kleiner fibrosis score. We also assessed the number of patients with progression by at least one fibrosis stage from baseline to 18 months. Primary analyses were done in the per-protocol and modified intention-to-treat populations; safety was assessed in the full intention-to-treat population. The per-protocol population was defined as all randomly assigned patients who did not present serious protocol violations, who ingested at least 75% of the treatment, and who were not withdrawn from the study due to non-adherence (interruption of treatment for 4 weeks or more). Participants receiving at least one dose of the intervention were included in the modified intention-to-treat analyses. This completed trial is registered with EudraCT, number 2014-001856-51. FINDINGS: Between March 23, 2015, and Nov 10, 2021, we screened 1886 consecutive patients with a history of excessive alcohol consumption and no previous hepatic decompensation, of whom 136 were randomly assigned to either rifaximin-α (n=68) or placebo (n=68). All patients were White (100%), 114 (84%) were men, and 22 (16%) were women. 133 (98%) patients received at least one dose of the intervention and were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis; 108 (79%) completed the trial per protocol. In the per-protocol analysis, 14 (26%) of 54 patients in the rifaximin-α group and 15 (28%) of 54 patients in the placebo group had a decrease in fibrosis stage after 18 months (odds ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·45-2·68]; p=0·83). In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, 15 (22%) of 67 patients in the rifaximin-α group and 15 (23%) of 66 patients in the placebo group had a decrease in fibrosis stage at 18 months (1·05 [0·45-2·44]; p=0·91). In the per-protocol analysis, increase in fibrosis stage occurred in 13 (24%) patients in the rifaximin-α group and 23 (43%) patients in the placebo group (0·42 [0·18-0·98]; p=0·044). In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, increase in fibrosis stage occurred in 13 (19%) patients in the rifaximin-α group and 23 (35%) patients in the placebo group (0·45 [0·20-1·02]; p=0·055). The number of patients with adverse events (48 [71%] of 68 patients in the rifaximin-α group; 53 [78%] of 68 in the placebo group) and serious adverse events (14 [21%] in the rifaximin-α group; 12 [18%] in the placebo group) was similar between the groups. No serious adverse events were deemed related to treatment. Three patients died during the trial, but none of the deaths were considered treatment related. INTERPRETATION: In patients with alcohol-related liver disease, rifaximin-α might reduce progression of liver fibrosis. These findings warrant confirmation in a multicentre phase 3 trial. FUNDING: The EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program and The Novo Nordisk Foundation.

Noninvasive proteomic biomarkers for alcohol-related liver disease.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of liver-related death worldwide, yet understanding of the three key pathological features of the disease-fibrosis, inflammation and steatosis-remains incomplete. Here, we present a paired liver-plasma proteomics approach to infer molecular pathophysiology and to explore the diagnostic and prognostic capability of plasma proteomics in 596 individuals (137 controls and 459 individuals with ALD), 360 of whom had biopsy-based histological assessment. We analyzed all plasma samples and 79 liver biopsies using a mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics workflow with short gradient times and an enhanced, data-independent acquisition scheme in only 3 weeks of measurement time. In plasma and liver biopsy tissues, metabolic functions were downregulated whereas fibrosis-associated signaling and immune responses were upregulated. Machine learning models identified proteomics biomarker panels that detected significant fibrosis (receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC), 0.92, accuracy, 0.82) and mild inflammation (ROC-AUC, 0.87, accuracy, 0.79) more accurately than existing clinical assays (DeLong's test, P < 0.05). These biomarker panels were found to be accurate in prediction of future liver-related events and all-cause mortality, with a Harrell's C-index of 0.90 and 0.79, respectively. An independent validation cohort reproduced the diagnostic model performance, laying the foundation for routine MS-based liver disease testing.

PRO-C3 and ADAPT algorithm accurately identify patients with advanced fibrosis due to alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a main cause of preventable deaths and frequently leads to the development of alcohol-related liver disease. Due to the lack of diagnostics, patients are commonly diagnosed after developing clinical manifestations. Recently, the biomarker PRO-C3 was shown to accurately identify fibrosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. AIM: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of PRO-C3, the ADAPT score and best-performing non-patented serological test to detect advanced alcohol-related liver fibrosis. METHODS: We enrolled 426 patients with alcohol overuse in a prospective biopsy-controlled study. We evaluated the accuracy of PRO-C3 and the PRO-C3-based algorithm ADAPT to detect advanced liver fibrosis. RESULTS: The accuracy of PRO-C3 was good with an AUROC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.79-0.90). The best-performing non-patented test was the Forns index with an AUROC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.89). The ADAPT algorithm performed better as compared to both the Forns index and PRO-C3 alone with an AUROC = 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93). CONCLUSION: PRO-C3 is a new marker with high accuracy to detect advanced alcohol-related liver fibrosis. The diagnostic accuracy of PRO-C3 can be further improved by using the ADAPT algorithm in which the test outperforms currently available non-patented serological fibrosis markers. The study is registered in the Odense Patient Data Exploratory Network (OPEN) under study identification numbers OP_040 (https://open.rsyd.dk/OpenProjects/da/openProject.jsp?openNo=40) and OP_239 (https://open.rsyd.dk/OpenProjects/openProject.jsp?openNo=239&lang=da).

Progressive alcohol-related liver fibrosis is characterised by imbalanced collagen formation and degradation.

BACKGROUND: Liver fibrosis accumulation is considered a turnover disease, with formation exceeding degradation, although this hypothesis has never been tested in humans. AIMS: To investigate extracellular matrix (ECM) remodelling in a biopsy-controlled study of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) patients. METHODS: We evaluated the relationship between formation and degradation of four collagens as a function of histological fibrosis, inflammation and steatosis in 281 patients with ALD and 50 matched healthy controls. Post hoc, we tested the findings in a cohort of patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis and assessed the collagens' prognostic accuracy. We assessed the fibrillar collagens type III (PRO-C3/C3M) and V (PRO-C5/C5M), the basement membrane collagen IV (PRO-C4/C4M), and the microfilament interface collagen VI (PRO-C6/C6M). RESULTS: Mean age was 54 ± 6 years, 74% male, fibrosis stage F0/1/2/3/4 = 33/98/84/18/48. Compared to controls, patients with ALD had higher levels of type III collagen formation and degradation, with the highest concentrations in those with cirrhosis (PRO-C3 = 8.2 ± 1.7 ng/mL in controls, 14.6 ± 13.5 in ALD, 34.8 ± 23.1 in cirrhosis; C3M 7.4 ± 1.9 in controls, 9.3 ± 4.4 in ALD, 14.0 ± 5 in cirrhosis). ECM remodelling became increasingly imbalanced in higher stages of liver fibrosis, with formation progressively superseding degradation. This was particularly pronounced for type III collagen. We observed similar imbalance for inflammatory severity, but not steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: ALD is characterised by both elevated collagen formation and degradation, which becomes increasingly imbalanced with more severe disease. Net increase in fibrillar collagens contributes to fibrosis progression. This has important implications for monitoring and very early identification of patients at highest risk of progressing to cirrhosis.