Dynamic impacts of a catastrophic production event: the foot-and-mouth disease case.

In foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.

Issues and special features of animal health research.

In the rapidly changing context of research on animal health, INRA launched a collective discussion on the challenges facing the field, its distinguishing features, and synergies with biomedical research. As has been declared forcibly by the heads of WHO, FAO and OIE, the challenges facing animal health, beyond diseases transmissible to humans, are critically important and involve food security, agriculture economics, and the ensemble of economic activities associated with agriculture. There are in addition issues related to public health (zoonoses, xenobiotics, antimicrobial resistance), the environment, and animal welfare.Animal health research is distinguished by particular methodologies and scientific questions that stem from the specific biological features of domestic species and from animal husbandry practices. It generally does not explore the same scientific questions as research on human biology, even when the same pathogens are being studied, and the discipline is rooted in a very specific agricultural and economic context.Generic and methodological synergies nevertheless exist with biomedical research, particularly with regard to tools and biological models. Certain domestic species furthermore present more functional similarities with humans than laboratory rodents.The singularity of animal health research in relation to biomedical research should be taken into account in the organization, evaluation, and funding of the field through a policy that clearly recognizes the specific issues at stake. At the same time, the One Health approach should facilitate closer collaboration between biomedical and animal health research at the level of research teams and programmes.

A modelling framework based on MDP to coordinate farmers' disease control decisions at a regional scale.

The effectiveness of infectious disease control depends on the ability of health managers to act in a coordinated way. However, with regards to non-notifiable animal diseases, farmers individually decide whether or not to implement control measures, leading to positive and negative externalities for connected farms and possibly impairing disease control at a regional scale. Our objective was to facilitate the identification of optimal incentive schemes at a collective level, adaptive to the epidemiological situation, and minimizing the economic costs due to a disease and its control. We proposed a modelling framework based on Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to identify effective strategies to control PorcineReproductive andRespiratorySyndrome (PRRS), a worldwide endemicinfectiousdisease thatsignificantly impactspig farmproductivity. Using a stochastic discrete-time compartmental model representing PRRS virus spread and control within a group of pig herds, we defined the associated MDP. Using a decision-tree framework, we translated the optimal policy into a limited number of rules providing actions to be performed per 6-month time-step according to the observed system state. We evaluated the effect of varying costs and transition probabilities on optimal policy and epidemiological results. We finally identifiedan adaptive policy that gave the best net financial benefit. The proposed framework is a tool for decision support as it allows decision-makers to identify the optimal policy and to assess its robustness to variations in the values of parameters representing an impact of incentives on farmers' decisions.