Livestock impacts on an iconic Namib Desert plant are mediated by abiotic conditions.

Resolving the relative contributions of top-down versus bottom-up drivers of vegetation dynamics is a major challenge in drylands. In the coming decades, growing livestock populations and shifts in water availability will simultaneously impact many arid systems, but a lack of empirical data on plant responses to these pressures limits understanding of how plants will respond. Here, we combine ground and drone observations from an herbivore exclosure experiment to identify ungulate visitation patterns and their impacts on the cover and melon production of !nara (Acanthosicyos horridus), a large, long-lived desert plant in the hyper-arid Namib Desert. !Nara are of key ecological, social, and economic importance to Namib ecosystems and to the local Topnaar people. At our study site, we find that among native and domestic herbivores, free-ranging donkeys have the largest impact on !nara cover and melon production. !Nara cover was negatively affected by herbivores close to the desert-ephemeral river ecotone during a dry period, whereas !nara cover increased on all plants across the landscape during a wetter period, regardless of herbivore access. !Nara near the river channel and those protected from herbivores had more mature melons, particularly during the wetter period. At this site, the potential for conflict between Topnaar !nara melon harvesting and pastoral practices varies with a plant's distance from the river and prevailing abiotic conditions. This work advances monitoring approaches and adds empirical support to the understanding that top-down and bottom-up regulation of plant dynamics varies with spatiotemporal context, even within landscapes.

Lakes at Risk of Chloride Contamination.

Lakes in the Midwest and Northeast United States are at risk of anthropogenic chloride contamination, but there is little knowledge of the prevalence and spatial distribution of freshwater salinization. Here, we use a quantile regression forest (QRF) to leverage information from 2773 lakes to predict the chloride concentration of all 49 432 lakes greater than 4 ha in a 17-state area. The QRF incorporated 22 predictor variables, which included lake morphometry characteristics, watershed land use, and distance to the nearest road and interstate. Model predictions had an r2 of 0.94 for all chloride observations, and an r2 of 0.86 for predictions of the median chloride concentration observed at each lake. The four predictors with the largest influence on lake chloride concentrations were low and medium intensity development in the watershed, crop density in the watershed, and distance to the nearest interstate. Almost 2000 lakes are predicted to have chloride concentrations above 50 mg L-1 and should be monitored. We encourage management and governing agencies to use lake-specific model predictions to assess salt contamination risk as well as to augment their monitoring strategies to more comprehensively protect freshwater ecosystems from salinization.

Salting our freshwater lakes.

The highest densities of lakes on Earth are in north temperate ecosystems, where increasing urbanization and associated chloride runoff can salinize freshwaters and threaten lake water quality and the many ecosystem services lakes provide. However, the extent to which lake salinity may be changing at broad spatial scales remains unknown, leading us to first identify spatial patterns and then investigate the drivers of these patterns. Significant decadal trends in lake salinization were identified using a dataset of long-term chloride concentrations from 371 North American lakes. Landscape and climate metrics calculated for each site demonstrated that impervious land cover was a strong predictor of chloride trends in Northeast and Midwest North American lakes. As little as 1% impervious land cover surrounding a lake increased the likelihood of long-term salinization. Considering that 27% of large lakes in the United States have >1% impervious land cover around their perimeters, the potential for steady and long-term salinization of these aquatic systems is high. This study predicts that many lakes will exceed the aquatic life threshold criterion for chronic chloride exposure (230 mg L-1), stipulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the next 50 y if current trends continue.

Long-term chloride concentrations in North American and European freshwater lakes.

Anthropogenic sources of chloride in a lake catchment, including road salt, fertilizer, and wastewater, can elevate the chloride concentration in freshwater lakes above background levels. Rising chloride concentrations can impact lake ecology and ecosystem services such as fisheries and the use of lakes as drinking water sources. To analyze the spatial extent and magnitude of increasing chloride concentrations in freshwater lakes, we amassed a database of 529 lakes in Europe and North America that had greater than or equal to ten years of chloride data. For each lake, we calculated climate statistics of mean annual total precipitation and mean monthly air temperatures from gridded global datasets. We also quantified land cover metrics, including road density and impervious surface, in buffer zones of 100 to 1,500 m surrounding the perimeter of each lake. This database represents the largest global collection of lake chloride data. We hope that long-term water quality measurements in areas outside Europe and North America can be added to the database as they become available in the future.