Glasdegib plus intensive/nonintensive chemotherapy in untreated acute myeloid leukemia: BRIGHT AML 1019 Phase III trials.

Glasdegib, an oral Hedgehog pathway inhibitor, has been associated with significantly improved survival when combined with low-dose cytarabine in patients with untreated acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were unsuitable for intensive chemotherapy, when compared with low-dose cytarabine alone. BRIGHT AML 1019 (NCT03416179) comprises two independently powered Phase III, randomized (1:1), double-blind global trials evaluating oral glasdegib 100 mg once daily or placebo plus one of two standard chemotherapy regimens in adults with untreated AML. The intensive trial combines glasdegib/placebo with cytarabine and daunorubicin (7 + 3), while the nonintensive trial combines glasdegib/placebo with azacitidine. The primary end point of both studies is overall survival. Secondary end points include response, time to and duration of response, event-free survival, safety, patient-reported outcomes and pharmacokinetics. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03416179.

Prediction of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease by risk factor burden at 50 years of age.

BACKGROUND: Lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not previously been estimated, and the effect of risk factor burden on lifetime risk is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included all Framingham Heart Study participants who were free of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, stroke, claudication) at 50 years of age. Lifetime risks to 95 years of age were estimated for men and women, with death free of CVD as a competing event. We followed up 3564 men and 4362 women for 111,777 person-years; 1757 had CVD events and 1641 died free of CVD. At 50 years of age, lifetime risks were 51.7% (95% CI, 49.3 to 54.2) for men and 39.2% (95% CI, 37.0 to 41.4) for women, with median survivals of 30 and 36 years, respectively. With more adverse levels of single risk factors, lifetime risks increased and median survivals decreased. Compared with participants with > or =2 major risk factors, those with optimal levels had substantially lower lifetime risks (5.2% versus 68.9% in men, 8.2% versus 50.2% in women) and markedly longer median survivals (>39 versus 28 years in men, >39 versus 31 years in women). CONCLUSIONS: The absence of established risk factors at 50 years of age is associated with very low lifetime risk for CVD and markedly longer survival. These results should promote efforts aimed at preventing development of risk factors in young individuals. Given the high lifetime risks and lower survival in those with intermediate or high risk factor burden at 50 years of age, these data may be useful in communicating risks and supporting intensive preventive therapy.

Plasma natriuretic peptide levels and the risk of cardiovascular events and death.

BACKGROUND: The natriuretic peptides are counterregulatory hormones involved in volume homeostasis and cardiovascular remodeling. The prognostic significance of plasma natriuretic peptide levels in apparently asymptomatic persons has not been established. METHODS: We prospectively studied 3346 persons without heart failure. Using proportional-hazards regression, we examined the relations of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide to the risk of death from any cause, a first major cardiovascular event, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke or transient ischemic attack, and coronary heart disease. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 5.2 years, 119 participants died and 79 had a first cardiovascular event. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, each increment of 1 SD in log B-type natriuretic peptide levels was associated with a 27 percent increase in the risk of death (P=0.009), a 28 percent increase in the risk of a first cardiovascular event (P=0.03), a 77 percent increase in the risk of heart failure (P<0.001), a 66 percent increase in the risk of atrial fibrillation (P<0.001), and a 53 percent increase in the risk of stroke or transient ischemic attack (P=0.002). Peptide levels were not significantly associated with the risk of coronary heart disease events. B-type natriuretic peptide values above the 80th percentile (20.0 pg per milliliter for men and 23.3 pg per milliliter for women) were associated with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.62 for death (P=0.02), 1.76 for a first major cardiovascular event (P=0.03), 1.91 for atrial fibrillation (P=0.02), 1.99 for stroke or transient ischemic attack (P=0.02), and 3.07 for heart failure (P=0.002). Similar results were obtained for N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based sample, plasma natriuretic peptide levels predicted the risk of death and cardiovascular events after adjustment for traditional risk factors. Excess risk was apparent at natriuretic peptide levels well below current thresholds used to diagnose heart failure.

Predictors of new-onset diastolic and systolic hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Factors leading differentially to the development of isolated diastolic (IDH), systolic-diastolic (SDH), and isolated systolic (ISH) hypertension are poorly understood. We examined the relations of blood pressure (BP) and clinical risk factors to the new onset of the 3 forms of hypertension. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants in the Framingham Heart Study were included if they had undergone 2 biennial examinations between 1953 and 1957 and were free of antihypertensive therapy and cardiovascular disease. Compared with optimal BP (SBP <120 and DBP <80 mm Hg), the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for developing new-onset IDH over the ensuing 10 years were 2.75 for normal BP, 3.29 for high-normal BP (both P<0.0001), 1.31 (P=0.40) for SDH, and 0.61 (P=0.36) for ISH. The HRs of developing new-onset SDH were 3.32, 7.96, 7.10, and 23.12 for the normal BP, high-normal BP, ISH, and IDH groups, respectively (all P<0.0001). The HRs of developing ISH were 3.26 for normal and 4.82 for high-normal BP (both P<0.0001), 1.39 (P=0.24) for IDH, and 1.69 (P<0.01) for SDH. Increased body mass index (BMI) during follow-up predicted new-onset IDH and SDH. Other predictors of IDH were younger age, male sex, and BMI at baseline. Predictors of ISH included older age, female sex, and increased BMI during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Given the propensity for increased baseline BMI and weight gain to predict new-onset IDH and the high probability of IDH to transition to SDH, it is likely that IDH is not a benign condition. ISH arises more commonly from normal and high-normal BP than from "burned-out" diastolic hypertension.

Obstructive sleep apnea and plasma natriuretic peptide levels in a community-based sample.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that alterations in cardiac hemodynamics associated with obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea (OSAH) would be reflected in higher natriuretic peptide levels. We examined the association of OSAH with natriuretic peptides in a community-based sample. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, retrospective, observational study. SETTING: Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort and Sleep Heart Health Study. PARTICIPANTS: Community-based sample of 623 individuals. MEASUREMENTS: Full-montage home polysomnography was used to determine apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and percentage of time with an oxyhemoglobin saturation < 90% (PctLt90). Sensitive immunoradiometric assays were used to measure plasma B-type (BNP) and N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (NT-ANP). Multivariable regression was used to examine the relations between natriuretic peptides and indicators of OSAH, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and clinical covariates. RESULTS: No statistically significant relations between OSAH indices and BNP were observed in the multivariable model. Compared with an AHI < 5, relative levels of 1.20, 0.88, and 0.91 were observed forAHI categories 5-15, 15-30, >30 events per hour, respectively. For NT-ANP, no significant relations were seen with AHI in the multivariable model (relative levels of 0.98, 0.91, and 0.90). An inverse association was observed between NT-ANP and PctLt90 in age- and sex-adjusted models (relative levels of 0.93, 0.87, and 0.80), although this association became statistically nonsignificant after adjusting for body mass index. CONCLUSION: Lack of association of natriuretic peptides with OSAH indices suggests that undiagnosed OSAH may not be associated with major alterations in left ventricular function, as reflected in morning natriuretic peptide levels.

Glycemic status and development of kidney disease: the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is a major risk factor for the development of kidney disease and is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease in the U.S. Whether pre-diabetes is associated with the development of kidney disease is unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Subjects free of chronic kidney disease (CKD) were drawn from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort (1991-1995), given an oral glucose tolerance test, and followed for an average of 7 years for development of CKD (glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of <59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in women and <64 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in men). Multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted for cardiovascular disease risk factors including age, sex, hypertension, smoking, BMI, total and HDL cholesterol levels, and prevalent myocardial infarction or congestive heart failure, were used to estimate the odds of patients developing kidney disease among glycemic categories. RESULTS: Of 2,398 subjects (53% women; mean age 54 years), 63% were normoglycemic, 29% had impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), 3.4% were newly diabetic, and 4.6% had known diabetes. By glycemic category, mean GFR at follow-up was 87, 85, 82, and 78 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. The fully adjusted odds of developing CKD were 0.98 (95% CI 0.67-1.45), 1.71 (95% CI 0.83-3.55), and 1.93 (95% CI 1.06-3.49) among those with IFG or IGT, newly diagnosed diabetes, or known diabetes, respectively, compared with those who were normoglycemic at baseline. Among participants without diabetes, metabolic syndrome was not associated with kidney disease at follow-up (odds ratio 1.46, P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular disease risk factors explain much of the relationship between prediabetes and the development of chronic kidney disease. Clinical trials are warranted to determine whether vascular risk factor modification can slow the decline of kidney function among those with pre-diabetes.

Impact of obesity on plasma natriuretic peptide levels.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms linking obesity to hypertension have not been established, but sodium retention and excessive sympathetic tone are key contributors. The natriuretic peptides are important regulators of sodium homeostasis and neurohormonal activation, raising the possibility that obese individuals have an impaired natriuretic peptide response. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the relations of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide (N-ANP) to body mass index in 3389 Framingham Study participants (1803 women) without heart failure. Multivariable regression analyses were performed, adjusting for clinical and echocardiographic covariates. BNP levels below the assay detection limit and N-ANP levels in the lowest sex-specific quartile were categorized as low. Multivariable-adjusted mean plasma BNP levels in lean (<25 kg/m2), overweight (25 to 29.9 kg/m2), and obese (> or =30 kg/m2) men were 21.4, 15.5, and 12.7 pg/mL, respectively (trend P<0.0001). Corresponding values in women were 21.1, 16.3, and 13.1 pg/mL (trend P<0.001). A similar pattern was noted for plasma N-ANP. Obese individuals had higher odds of having low plasma BNP (multivariable-adjusted odds ratios: men, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.71 to 3.68; women, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.32 to 2.58) and low plasma N-ANP (odds ratios: men, 4.81; 95% CI, 2.98 to 7.76; women, 2.85; 95% CI, 2.01 to 4.04) compared with lean individuals. Diabetes also was associated with low plasma natriuretic peptide levels, and the negative effects of obesity and diabetes on natriuretic peptide levels were additive. CONCLUSIONS: Obese individuals have low circulating natriuretic peptide levels, which may contribute to their susceptibility to hypertension and hypertension-related disorders.

Heritability and genetic linkage of plasma natriuretic peptide levels.

BACKGROUND: Natriuretic peptides play a critical role in the maintenance of salt and water homeostasis and regulation of vascular tone. Thus, interindividual variation in plasma natriuretic peptide levels may contribute to variation in susceptibility to volume overload and hypertension. It is unknown to what extent genetic factors contribute to variation in plasma natriuretic peptide levels. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 1914 Framingham Study participants (mean age 57 years, 53% women) who underwent routine echocardiography and testing for plasma N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide (N-ANP) and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP). We estimated sex-specific multivariable models and used variance-components methods, implemented in SOLAR (Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines), to estimate heritability. Multipoint linkage analyses were performed using data from a 10-cM-density genome scan. Age, clinical, and echocardiographic variables accounted for 42% and 40% of the variation in log N-ANP and log BNP levels, respectively, in men. Corresponding values in women were 27% and 21%. Multivariable-adjusted heritabilities were 0.44 for log N-ANP and 0.35 for log BNP (P<0.0001). Genome-wide linkage analyses, based on 1142 participants from the 314 largest families, revealed 2 regions of suggestive linkage for log N-ANP and log BNP on chromosomes 2p25 (log-of-odds score 2.40) and 12p13 (log-of-odds score 2.13), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based sample, a substantial proportion of the unexplained variation in plasma natriuretic peptide levels was attributable to additive genetic effects. Additional studies using candidate gene approaches may provide insight into the genetic loci that regulate plasma natriuretic peptide levels in humans.

Usefulness of exercise testing in the prediction of coronary disease risk among asymptomatic persons as a function of the Framingham risk score.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to determine the usefulness of exercise treadmill testing (ETT) among asymptomatic persons in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD) events over and above the Framingham CHD risk score. METHODS AND RESULTS: Subjects included 3043 members of the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort without CHD (1431 men and 1612 women; age, 45+/-9 years) who underwent ETT and were followed up for 18.2 years. The risk of developing CHD was evaluated relative to 3 exercise test variables: (1) ST-segment depression > or =1 mm, (2) failure to achieve target heart rate (THR) of 85% predicted maximum, and (3) exercise capacity. In multivariable analyses that adjusted for age and Framingham CHD risk score, among men, ST-segment depression (hazard ratio [HR], 1.88; 95% CI, 1.21 to 2.91) and failure to achieve THR (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.45) predicted higher CHD risk, whereas a greater exercise capacity predicted lower CHD risk (HR per MET, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99). Although similar HRs were seen in women, those results were not statistically significant. Among men with 10-year predicted risk > or =20%, failure to reach THR and ST-segment depression both more than doubled the risk of an event (HR, 2.66 and HR, 2.11, respectively), and each MET increment in exercise capacity reduced risk by 13% (HR, 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Among asymptomatic men, ST-segment depression, failure to reach THR, and exercise capacity during ETT provided additional prognostic information in age- and Framingham risk score-adjusted models, particularly among those in the highest risk group (10-year predicted CHD risk of > or =20%). The evaluation of exercise test variables in women is limited, given our sample size and the few CHD events in women.

Lifetime risk for developing congestive heart failure: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is an increasing public health problem. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among Framingham Heart Study subjects who were free of CHF at baseline, we determined the lifetime risk for developing overt CHF at selected index ages. We followed 3757 men and 4472 women from 1971 to 1996 for 124 262 person-years; 583 subjects developed CHF and 2002 died without prior CHF. At age 40 years, the lifetime risk for CHF was 21.0% (95% CI 18.7% to 23.2%) for men and 20.3% (95% CI 18.2% to 22.5%) for women. Remaining lifetime risk did not change with advancing index age because of rapidly increasing CHF incidence rates. At age 80 years, the lifetime risk was 20.2% (95% CI 16.1% to 24.2%) for men and 19.3% (95% CI 16.5% to 22.2%) for women. Lifetime risk for CHF doubled for subjects with blood pressure >/=160/100 versus <140/90 mm Hg. In a secondary analysis, we only considered those who developed CHF without an antecedent myocardial infarction; at age 40 years, the lifetime risk for CHF was 11.4% (95% CI 9.6% to 13.2%) for men and 15.4% (95% CI 13.5% to 17.3%) for women. CONCLUSIONS: When established clinical criteria are used to define overt CHF, the lifetime risk for CHF is 1 in 5 for both men and women. For CHF occurring in the absence of myocardial infarction, the lifetime risk is 1 in 9 for men and 1 in 6 for women, which highlights the risk of CHF that is largely attributable to hypertension. These results should assist in predicting the population burden of CHF and placing greater emphasis on prevention of CHF through hypertension control and prevention of myocardial infarction.

Temporal relations of atrial fibrillation and congestive heart failure and their joint influence on mortality: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and congestive heart failure (CHF) frequently occur together, but there is limited information regarding their temporal relations and the combined influence of these conditions on mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied participants in the Framingham Study with new-onset AF or CHF. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent variables were used to evaluate whether mortality after AF or CHF was affected by the occurrence and timing of the other condition. Hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for time period and cardiovascular risk factors. During the study period, 1470 participants developed AF, CHF, or both. Among 382 individuals with both conditions, 38% had AF first, 41% had CHF first, and 21% had both diagnosed on the same day. The incidence of CHF among AF subjects was 33 per 1000 person-years, and the incidence of AF among CHF subjects was 54 per 1000 person-years. In AF subjects, the subsequent development of CHF was associated with increased mortality (men: HR 2.7; 95% CI, 1.9 to 3.7; women: HR 3.1; 95% CI, 2.2 to 4.2). Similarly, in CHF subjects, later development of AF was associated with increased mortality (men: HR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.1; women: HR 2.7, 95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6). Preexisting CHF adversely affected survival in individuals with AF, but preexisting AF was not associated with adverse survival in those with CHF. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with AF or CHF who subsequently develop the other condition have a poor prognosis. Additional studies addressing the pathogenesis, prevention, and optimal management of the joint occurrence of AF and CHF appear warranted.

Lifetime risk for development of atrial fibrillation: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac dysrhythmia and a source of considerable morbidity and mortality, but lifetime risk for AF has not been estimated. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included all participants in the Framingham Heart Study who were free of AF at index ages of 40 years and older. We estimated lifetime risks for AF (including atrial flutter) to age 95 years, with death free of AF as a competing event. We followed 3999 men and 4726 women from 1968 to 1999 (176 166 person-years); 936 participants had development of AF and 2621 died without prior AF. At age 40 years, lifetime risks for AF were 26.0% (95% CI, 24.0% to 27.0%) for men and 23.0% (21.0% to 24.0%) for women. Lifetime risks did not change substantially with increasing index age despite decreasing remaining years of life because AF incidence rose rapidly with advancing age. At age 80 years, lifetime risks for AF were 22.7% (20.1% to 24.1%) in men and 21.6% (19.3% to 22.7%) in women. In further analyses, counting only those who had development of AF without prior or concurrent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction, lifetime risks for AF were approximately 16%. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime risks for development of AF are 1 in 4 for men and women 40 years of age and older. Lifetime risks for AF are high (1 in 6), even in the absence of antecedent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction. These substantial lifetime risks underscore the major public health burden posed by AF and the need for further investigation into predisposing conditions, preventive strategies, and more effective therapies.

Serum potassium and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham heart study.

BACKGROUND: Published studies of the association between serum potassium concentration and risk for cardiovascular disease in community-based populations have reported conflicting results. We sought to determine the association between serum potassium concentration and cardiovascular disease risk in the Framingham Heart Study. METHODS: A total of 3151 participants (mean age, 43 years; 48% men) in the Framingham Heart Study who were free of cardiovascular disease and not taking medications affecting potassium homeostasis had serum potassium levels measured (1979-1983). Proportional hazards models were used to determine the association of serum potassium concentration at baseline with the incidence of cardiovascular disease at follow-up. RESULTS: During mean follow-up of 16 years, 313 cardiovascular disease events occurred, including 46 cardiovascular disease-related deaths. After adjustment for age, serum potassium level was marginally associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mg/dL increment, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.05; P =.02). However, after further adjustment for multiple confounders, serum potassium level was not significantly associated with cardiovascular disease risk (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.03). There were no significant associations between serum potassium level and cardiovascular disease-related death in either age- and sex-adjusted models (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.99-1.12) or multivariable-adjusted models (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.11). CONCLUSION: In our community-based sample of individuals free of cardiovascular disease and not taking medications that affect potassium homeostasis, serum potassium level was not associated with risk of cardiovascular disease.

Framingham risk score and prediction of lifetime risk for coronary heart disease.

We investigated whether the Framingham risk score, which was designed to estimate the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), differentiates lifetime risk for CHD. All subjects in the Framingham Heart Study examined from 1971 to 1996 who were free of CHD were included. Subjects were stratified into age- and gender-specific tertiles of Framingham risk score, and lifetime risk for CHD was estimated. We followed 2,716 men and 3,500 women; 939 developed CHD and 1,363 died free of CHD. At age 40 years, in risk score tertiles 1, 2, and 3, respectively, the lifetime risks for CHD were 38.4%, 41.7%, and 50.7% for men and 12.2%, 25.4%, and 33.2% for women. At age 80 years, risks were 16.4%, 17.4%, and 38.8% for men and 12.8%, 22.4%, and 27.4% for women. The Framingham risk score stratified lifetime risk well for women at all ages. It performed less well in younger men but improved at older ages as remaining life expectancy approached 10 years. Lifetime risks contrasted sharply with shorter term risks: at age 40 years, the 10-year risks of CHD in tertiles 1, 2, and 3, respectively, were 0%, 2.2%, and 11.6% for men and 0%, 0.7%, and 2.3% for women. The Framingham 10-year CHD risk prediction model discriminated short-term risk well for men and women. However, it may not identify subjects with low short-term but high lifetime risk for CHD, likely due to changes in risk factor status over time. Further work is needed to generate multivariate risk models that can reliably predict lifetime risk for CHD.

Impact of age and sex on plasma natriuretic peptide levels in healthy adults.

Assays for natriuretic peptides have received considerable attention as potential screening tests for congestive heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction. However, information regarding the impact of age, sex, and other physiologic characteristics on natriuretic peptide levels is limited. We examined a healthy reference sample of 911 subjects (mean age 55 years, 62% women) from the Framingham Heart Study who were free of hypertension, valvular disease, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, obesity, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, and renal failure, and who had normal left ventricular systolic function. Plasma brain natriuretic peptide and N-terminal atrial natriuretic peptide levels were measured, and multivariable regression used to assess correlates of natriuretic peptide levels. The strongest predictors of higher natriuretic peptide levels were older age and female sex. Other multivariable predictors included lower diastolic blood pressure (higher pulse pressure), lower body mass index, and higher left atrial size. Reference limits were then formulated based on the empirical distribution of natriuretic peptide levels by gender both across all ages and partitioned by age. Age-pooled reference limits compared with age-specific limits classified a higher proportion of healthy elderly subjects (17% vs 2.5%), but a lower proportion of healthy young subjects (1% vs 2.5%) as "abnormal." We conclude that interpretation of natriuretic peptide levels should take into consideration gender and possibly age. The reference limits derived from this large, healthy community-based sample will aid in the identification of elevated natriuretic peptide levels in clinical practice.

Predictors of new-onset kidney disease in a community-based population.

CONTEXT: Kidney disease is associated with an increased risk for the development of cardiovascular disease and end-stage renal disease; however, risk factors for kidney disease have not been well studied. OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of the development of new-onset kidney disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A community-based, longitudinal cohort study of 2585 participants who attended both a baseline examination in 1978-1982 and a follow-up examination in 1998-2001, and who were free of kidney disease at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Kidney disease was assessed by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation and defined by a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in the fifth or lower percentile (< or =59.25 mL/min per 1.73 m2 in women, < or =64.25 mL/min per 1.73 m2 in men). Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine the impact of risk factors on the occurrence of new-onset kidney disease. Baseline and long-term, 12-year, averaged risk factor models were explored. RESULTS: At baseline, there were 1223 men and 1362 women, with a mean age of 43 years, who were free of preexisting kidney disease. After a mean follow-up of 18.5 years, 244 participants (9.4%) had developed kidney disease. In multivariable models, baseline age (odds ratio [OR], 2.36 per 10-year increment; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.00-2.78), GFR (<90 mL/min per 1.73 m2: OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.98-4.58; 90-119 mL/min per 1.73 m2: OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.16-2.93), body mass index (OR, 1.23 per 1 SD; 95% CI, 1.08-1.41), diabetes (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.44-4.70), and smoking (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.06-1.91) were related to the development of kidney disease. In addition to baseline age and GFR, the long-term, averaged risk factors that were predictive of kidney disease included hypertension (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.17-2.12), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (OR, 0.80 per 1 SD; 95% CI, 0.69-0.92), and diabetes (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.45-3.92). Compared with a normal GFR (> or =120 mL/min per 1.73 m2), a mildly reduced GFR (<90 mL/min per 1.73 m2) predicted a 3-fold odds of progression to kidney disease (OR, 2.95; 95% CI, 1.94-4.49). CONCLUSIONS: Established cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with the development of new-onset kidney disease. Patients with a mildly reduced GFR should be monitored for progression to kidney disease.

Cross-sectional association of kidney function with valvular and annular calcification: the Framingham heart study.

Valvular calcification is common in the setting of end-stage kidney disease and is associated with increased risks for cardiovascular disease events. It is unknown whether the prevalence of valvular calcification is increased in milder kidney disease after accounting for cardiovascular risk factors. Participants who attended the sixth examination of the Framingham Offspring Study (1995 to 1998) were eligible. Kidney function was estimated by GFR using the simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation. Mitral annular calcification (MAC), aortic sclerosis, and aortic annular calcification were assessed by two-dimensional echocardiography. Logistic regression was used to examine the odds of valvular calcification among participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD; GFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)). A total of 3047 participants (52% women; mean age 59 +/- 10 yr) were available for analysis. CKD was present in 8.6% (n = 262) of the sample. Among participants with valve/annular calcification (n = 284; 9.3%), 20% had CKD, compared with 7% in patients without valvular calcification. After adjustment for age, gender, systolic and diastolic BP, hypertension treatment, total/HDL cholesterol, body mass index, diabetes, smoking status, and cardiovascular disease, participants with CKD had a 60% increased odds of MAC (odds ratio 1.6; 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 2.5). There was no significant association between CKD and either aortic sclerosis or aortic annular calcification (odds ratio 1.1 and 1.1, respectively). After age and gender adjustment, the combination of both CKD and MAC was associated with a three-fold increased risk for death compared with those with neither condition (P = 0.0004). In the community, CKD is associated with presence of MAC before the onset of ESRD. Further research is warranted to understand whether traditional and novel vascular risk factor burden, as well as metabolic derangements found in early kidney disease, can account for the CKD-MAC association.

Novel approach to examining first cardiovascular events after hypertension onset.

Hypertension confers risk for multiple types of cardiovascular events, but competing risks for these outcomes are unknown. We estimated the competing risks over 12 years after hypertension onset among cases and age-, sex-, and examination-matched controls using competing Cox cumulative incidence and proportional hazards models. We included all Framingham Heart Study subjects examined after 1977 with new-onset hypertension who were free of cardiovascular disease. There were 645 men and 702 women with new-onset hypertension (mean age: men, 55+/-12 years; women, 59+/-12 years). Compared with matched nonhypertensive controls, subjects with new-onset hypertension were more likely to experience a cardiovascular event first rather than noncardiovascular death. Among new-onset hypertensives, the 12-year competing cumulative incidence of any cardiovascular end point as a first event in men was 24.7%, compared with 9.8% for noncardiovascular death (hazards ratio [HR], 2.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83 to 3.50); in women, the competing incidences were 16.0% versus 10.1%, respectively (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.20). The most common first major cardiovascular events were hard coronary disease (8.2%) in men and stroke (5.2%) in women. Type and incidence of first cardiovascular events varied by age and severity of hypertension at onset, with stroke predominating among older subjects with new-onset hypertension. After hypertension onset, cardiovascular events are more likely to occur first as opposed to noncardiovascular death. Types of initial events differ by gender, age, and severity of hypertension at onset. These results represent a novel approach to understanding the complications of hypertension and may help target therapies for patients with new-onset hypertension to optimize prevention strategies.

Plasma brain natriuretic peptide levels and blood pressure tracking in the Framingham Heart Study.

Increased brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) expression in the ventricles antedates elevated blood pressure (BP) in experimental studies. We hypothesized that higher plasma BNP levels in nonhypertensive individuals may be associated with a greater likelihood of future BP increase and/or hypertension. We evaluated the relations of plasma BNP to longitudinal BP tracking and incidence of hypertension in 1801 nonhypertensive Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 56 years; 57% women) by using gender-specific multivariable logistic regression. Progression of BP stage was defined as an increment of one or more BP categories, as classified by the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC VI). Hypertension was defined as a systolic BP > or =140 or diastolic BP > or =90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensive medications. On follow-up 4 years from baseline, progression of BP category was observed in 36.2% of men and 33.1% of women; hypertension developed in 16.4% of men and 15.5% of women. In multivariable models adjusting for known risk factors, elevated plasma BNP level was associated with increased risk of BP progression in men (odds ratio of 1.15 for trend across categories, P=0.046) but not in women (P=0.82). There were no significant trends of increasing incidence of hypertension across BNP categories in men or women. In our community-based sample, higher plasma BNP levels were associated with increased risk of BP progression in men but not women. Additional investigations are warranted to confirm these findings and elucidate the basis for these gender-related differences.

Genomewide linkage analysis to serum creatinine, GFR, and creatinine clearance in a community-based population: the Framingham Heart Study.

Kidney disease is a risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease, all-cause mortality, and ESRD. It is not known to what extent genetic factors play a role in the development of kidney disease in the general population. Multipoint variance components linkage analysis was performed using Genehunter on 330 families from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort, using a 10-cM genomewide scan for serum creatinine, GFR, and creatinine clearance (CRCL) measured from 1998 to 2001. GFR was estimated using the simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation, and CRCL was estimated using the Cockcroft-Gault equation. Covariates in the adjustment included age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, systolic BP, hypertension treatment, tobacco use, and HDL cholesterol. Overall, 1224 subjects (52% women), mean age 59, were available for analysis. Mean creatinine was 0.87 mg/dl, mean GFR was 87 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and mean creatinine clearance was 100 ml/min. The multivariable-adjusted heritability estimates for creatinine, GFR, and CRCL were 0.29, 0.33, and 0.46, respectively. The peak log of the odds ratio (LOD) scores for serum creatinine, GFR, and CRCL were 2.28 at 176 cM on chromosome 4, 2.19 at 78 cM on chromosome 4, and 1.91 at 103 cM on chromosome 3, respectively. In a community-based sample, measures of serum creatinine, GFR, and CRCL are heritable, suggesting an underlying genetic component. These results also provide suggestive evidence for linkage to measures of kidney function. Further research is necessary to identify the genes involved in the development of kidney disease and to understand their roles in this complex process.