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1.
J Fish Dis ; 45(8): 1117-1132, 2022 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35514291

RESUMO

Probiotics have been used to alleviate disease transmission in aquaculture. However, there are limited studies on probiotic use in modulating tilapia lake virus (TiLV). We assessed commercially available probiotic supplements used in TiLV-infected tilapia and performed mortality and cohabitation assays. We developed a mechanistic approach to predict dose-response interactions of probiotic effects on mortality and immune gene response. We used a susceptible-infected-mortality disease model to assess key epidemiological parameters such as transmission rate and basic reproduction number (R0 ) based on our viral load dynamic data. We found that the most marked benefits of probiotics are significantly associated with immune system enhancements (~30%) and reductions in disease transmission (~80%) and R0 (~70%) in tilapia populations, resulting in a higher tolerance of farming densities (~400 fold) in aquaculture. These findings provide early insights as to how probiotic use-related factors may influence TiLV transmission and the immune responses in TiLV-infected tilapia. Our study facilitates understanding the mode of action of probiotics in disease containment and predicting better probiotic dosages in diet and supplements to achieve the optimal culturing conditions. Overall, our analysis assures that further study of rationally designed and targeted probiotics, or mechanistic modelling is warranted on the basis of promising early data of this approach.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Peixes , Probióticos , Tilápia , Animais , Aquicultura , Imunidade , Probióticos/farmacologia
2.
J Fish Dis ; 43(10): 1155-1165, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32720332

RESUMO

Nervous necrosis virus (NNV) infection in susceptible grouper larvae has been reported to cause high mortalities, leading to great economic losses in aquaculture industry. Although the effects of NNV vaccines on grouper have been broadly investigated, vaccination strategies have not been fully established. To this end, we introduced the parsimonious epidemiological models that explored the assessment of key epidemiological parameters and how they changed when vaccinations showed the effects. We showed that the models capture the published cumulative mortality data accurately. We estimated a basic reproduction number R0  = 2.44 for NNV transmission in grouper larvae without vaccination. To effectively control NNV transmission by vaccination, a model for disease control was also generalized to attain the goals of controlled reproduction number less than 1. Our results indicated that at least 60% of grouper population needed to be immunized for ~75 min. Our data-driven modelling approach that links the transmission dynamics of NNV and vaccination strategies for grouper has the potential to support evidence-based planning and adaptation of integrated control measures. We encourage that the epidemiology-based framework introduced here can be further implemented for establishing effective vaccination and mitigation actions aimed at controlling diseases in fish farming practices.


Assuntos
Bass/virologia , Doenças dos Peixes/prevenção & controle , Doenças dos Peixes/virologia , Nodaviridae/patogenicidade , Infecções por Vírus de RNA/prevenção & controle , Vacinação/veterinária , Animais , Aquicultura , Número Básico de Reprodução , Doenças dos Peixes/transmissão , Larva/virologia , Modelos Teóricos , Infecções por Vírus de RNA/transmissão , Taiwan
3.
J Fish Dis ; 43(1): 57-68, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31691318

RESUMO

Susceptibility of hard clams Meretrix lusoria to birnavirus (BV) infections caused by temperature variations, from a mechanistic perspective, has rarely been explored. We used a deterministic susceptible-infectious-mortality (SIM) model to derive temperature-dependent key epidemiologic parameters based on data sets of viral infections in hard clams subjected to acute temperature changes. To parameterize seasonal pattern dependence, we estimated monthly based cumulative mortality and basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) between 1997 and 2017 by way of statistical analysis. Two alternative disease control models were also proposed to assess status of controlled temperature-mediated BV infection by using, respectively, control reproduction number (RC )-control line criterion and removal strategy-based control measure. We showed that based on RC -control strategy, when temperatures ranged from 15 to 26.8°C, proportion of susceptible hard clams removed should be at least 0.22%. Based on removal-control strategy, we found that by limiting pond water temperature to 25-30°C, together with increased removal rates and periods to remove hard clams, it is better to remove hard clams from June and August to reduce both mortality rate and spread of BV. Our results can be used to monitor BV transmission potential in hard clams that will contribute to government control strategy to eradicate future BV epidemics.


Assuntos
Birnaviridae/fisiologia , Bivalves/virologia , Temperatura Baixa , Temperatura Alta , Animais , Aquicultura
4.
J Fish Dis ; 41(9): 1439-1448, 2018 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30003543

RESUMO

A novel virus, tilapia lake virus (TiLV), has been identified as a key pathogen responsible for disease outbreak and mass mortality of farmed tilapia. We used a deterministic susceptible-infectious-mortality (SIM) model to derive key disease information appraised with published TiLV-induced cumulative mortality data. The relationship between tilapia mortality and TiLV exposure dosages was described by the Hill model. Furthermore, a disease control model was proposed to determine the status of controlled TiLV infection using a parsimonious control reproduction number (RC )-control line criterion. Results showed that the key disease determinants of transmission rate and basic reproduction number (R0 ) could be derived. The median R0 estimate was 2.59 in a cohabitation setting with 2.6 × 105  TCID50 fish-1 TiLV. The present RC -control model can be employed to determine whether TiLV containment is feasible in an outbreak farm by quantifying the current level of transmission. The SIM model can then be applied to predict what additional control is required to manage RC  < 1. We offer valuable tools for aquaculture engineers and public health scientists the mechanistic-based assessment that allows a more rigorous evaluation of different control strategies to reduce waterborne diseases in aquaculture farming systems.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Peixes/mortalidade , Doenças dos Peixes/transmissão , Lagos/virologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Tilápia/virologia , Animais , Aquicultura , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Doenças dos Peixes/virologia , Modelos Teóricos , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/transmissão
5.
BMC Public Health ; 17(1): 389, 2017 05 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28476140

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb) levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. METHODS: We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD) modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI). We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. RESULTS: Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50-1.26) with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67-77% and 86-95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 µg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.


Assuntos
Anemia/sangue , Anemia/epidemiologia , Chumbo/sangue , Instalações Industriais e de Manufatura , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Risco , Taiwan/epidemiologia
6.
Ecotoxicology ; 26(3): 360-369, 2017 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28130694

RESUMO

Cadmium (Cd) is of great concern in the soil environment and it can damage terrestrial organisms. The purpose of this study was to employ a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD) approach to investigate the effects of toxicologically relevant Cd accumulation on the life cycle growth of earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus and Eisenia fetida) and to assess potential terrestrial ecosystem risk. We reanalyzed growth toxicity and whole body and pellet accumulation data linked with TK/TD and life cycle growth models to estimate key rate constants. The growth risk of earthworms exposed to Cd was also assessed. This study found that the estimated whole body killing rate constant (0.114 g d µg-1) was much lower than that of pellet (0.248 g d µg-1). The recovery rate constant for whole body (6.02 d-1) was much higher than that of pellet (2.91 d-1). We also employed a life cycle-based probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate the growth inhibition risk for earthworms in response to environmentally relevant concentrations of Cd in Taiwan. Results showed that earthworms had a 90% growth inhibition probability risk of body weight, which was lower than 872.33 mg based on assessment of toxicologically relevant Cd accumulation. This study suggests that toxicologically relevant Cd accumulation could accurately reflect the capacity of Cd toxicity to earthworms. The integrated life cycle toxicity of earthworms exposed to Cd in this study provides a robust and applicable tool for the management of ecological risk assessment of Cd-contaminated soil.


Assuntos
Cádmio/toxicidade , Estágios do Ciclo de Vida/efeitos dos fármacos , Oligoquetos/fisiologia , Poluentes do Solo/toxicidade , Animais , Modelos Teóricos , Solo , Taiwan , Testes de Toxicidade
7.
Ecotoxicology ; 25(6): 1181-93, 2016 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27207496

RESUMO

Waterborne and dietborne exposures of freshwater fish to mercury (Hg) in the forms of inorganic (Hg(II)) and organic (methylmercury or MeHg) affect their growth, development, and reproduction. However, an integrated mechanistic risk model framework to predict the impact of Hg(II)/MeHg on freshwater fish is lacking. Here, we integrated biokinetic, physiological and biogeographic data to calibrate and then establish key risk indices-hazardous quotient and exceedance risk-for freshwater tilapia species across geographic ranges of several major rivers in Taiwan. We found that Hg(II) burden was highest in kidney followed by gill, intestine, liver, blood, and muscle. Our results showed that Hg was less likely to pose mortality risk (mortality rate less than 5 %) for freshwater tilapia species. However, Hg is likely to pose the potential hazard to aquatic environments constrained by safety levels for aquatic organisms. Sensitivity analysis showed that amount of Hg accumulated in tilapia was most influenced by sediment uptake rate. Our approach opens up new possibilities for predicting future fish population health with the impacts of continued Hg exposure to provide information on which fish are deemed safe for human consumption.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Mercúrio/toxicidade , Compostos de Metilmercúrio/toxicidade , Tilápia/fisiologia , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Poluição Química da Água/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Mercúrio/análise , Compostos de Metilmercúrio/análise , Medição de Risco , Rios , Taiwan
8.
J Antimicrob Chemother ; 70(12): 3273-82, 2015 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26311836

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: TB patients' non-adherence to the multidrug treatment regimen is thought to be the main cause of the emergence of drug resistance. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impacts of two-drug combination regimens and non-adherence to these regimens on treatment efficacy and drug resistance probability. METHODS: A drug treatment modelling strategy was developed by incorporating a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model into a bacterial population dynamic model to explore the dynamics of TB bacilli and evolution of resistance during multidrug combination therapy, with an emphasis on non-adherence. A Hill-equation-based pharmacodynamic model was used to assess the bactericidal efficacy of single drugs and to estimate drug interactions. RESULTS: Non-adherence to the treatment regimen increased treatment duration by nearly 1.6- and 3.4-fold relative to compliance with treatment. Symptom-based intermittent treatment, a form of non-adherence, might lead to treatment failure and accelerated growth and evolution of resistant mutants, resulting in a dramatically higher probability of 4.17 × 10(-3) (95% CI 2.10 × 10(-4)-1.28 × 10(-2)) for the emergence of MDR TB. Overall, determination of the optimal treatment regimen depended on the different types of medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Our model not only predicts evolutionary dynamics, but also quantifies treatment efficacy. More broadly, our model provides a quantitative framework for improving treatment protocols and establishing an emergence threshold of resistance that can be used to prevent drug resistance.


Assuntos
Antituberculosos/administração & dosagem , Adesão à Medicação , Modelos Teóricos , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Quimioterapia Combinada/métodos , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/efeitos dos fármacos , Resultado do Tratamento
9.
Ecotoxicology ; 23(6): 1124-36, 2014 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24829116

RESUMO

To understand how environmental variability could impose aquatic organisms in response to altered disturbance regimes and temporal patterns of waterborne toxicants is challenging. Few studies have reported in an organ/tissue specific basis, and most studies have been restricted to steady-state conditions. For interpreting systematically copper (Cu) bioaccumulation in tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) in a pulse scheme, we combined mechanistic and statistical as well as model-based data analyses of exposure data that cover short-term mortality to long-term organ/tissue growth bioassay. Our present pulsed Cu-tilapia physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model was capable of elucidating the Cu accumulation dynamics in tissues of tilapia under different pulsed exposure scenarios. Under acute and chronic pulsed exposures, our study found that (i) stomach and kidney had the highest uptake and elimination capacities, (ii) liver was prone to a highest BCF and was more sensitive than the other tissues, and (iii) Cu accumulations in most of organs and other tissues were strongly dependent on the exposure pulse characteristics such as frequency and duration and not on concentration (i.e., amplitude). We showed that interactions across multiple pulsed or fluctuating Cu exposures were involved in accumulation changes that could also be achieved by controlling pulse timing and duration. The analytical approach we described provides an opportunity to examine and quantify metal accumulation dynamics for fish in response to environmental variability-induced non-uniform metal exposures on an organ/tissue-dependent scale and to integrate qualitative information with toxicokinetic and physiological data. We hope that our systems-level tools for mathematical analyses and modeling will facilitate future large-scale and dynamic systems biology studies in other model fish.


Assuntos
Cobre/metabolismo , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Tilápia/metabolismo , Poluentes Químicos da Água/metabolismo , Animais , Análise por Conglomerados , Cobre/análise , Mucosa Gástrica/metabolismo , Rim/metabolismo , Modelos Lineares , Fígado/metabolismo , Análise Multivariada , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
10.
Ecotoxicology ; 23(7): 1245-53, 2014 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24906985

RESUMO

Selenium (Se) is a growing problem of global concern. Se can cause adverse effects on reproductive systems, which have been linked to declines in animal populations. The soil nematode Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) is a ubiquitous soil organism that is increasingly utilized as a model organism in aquatic and soil toxicology. In the present study, the experimental data for individual body length, survival rate, brood size, and hatching rate were used to evaluate the possible effects of selenite [Se(IV)] on C. elegans. A stage-classified matrix model was applied to the experimental data to provide information on the population dynamics of C. elegans and to assess the Se(IV)-affected asymptotic population growth rate. Estimates of the survival probability showed significant decreases in survival at all stages when C. elegans was exposed to Se(IV). The growth probability of C. elegans in the L1 stage showed the most significant decline, from 0.11 h(-1) (for the control) to 0.04 h(-1) [for exposure to 3 mM Se(IV)]. These results showed that Se(IV) has a profound impact on C. elegans population dynamics. The asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was found to range from 1.00 to 0.64 h(-1) for increasing Se(IV) concentrations, implying a potential risk of population decrease for C. elegans exposure to a Se(IV)-contaminated environment. Our study shows how a mechanistic view based on the Se(IV) effects on the soil nematode C. elegans can promote a life cycle toxicity assessment. An important implication of this analysis is that mathematical models can be used to produce a population stage structure, to give clarity to the analysis of the key population-level endpoint (the asymptotic population growth rate) of population dynamics, and to evaluate the influences for the response of other species to environmental Se. These models sequentially provide candidate environmental criteria for the evaluation of the population impact of Se.


Assuntos
Caenorhabditis elegans/efeitos dos fármacos , Selênio/toxicidade , Poluentes do Solo/toxicidade , Animais , Caenorhabditis elegans/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Estágios do Ciclo de Vida , Modelos Teóricos
11.
Environ Geochem Health ; 36(6): 1115-28, 2014 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24804830

RESUMO

Geogenic arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater is a major ecological and human health problem in southwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the human health risks from consuming raw and cooked fish that were cultured in groundwater As-contaminated ponds in Taiwan by linking a physiologically based pharmacokinetics model and a Weibull dose-response model. Results indicate that As levels in baked, fried, and grilled fish were higher than those of raw fish. Frying resulted in the greatest increase in As concentration, followed by grilling, with baking affecting the As concentration the least. Simulation results show that, following consumption of baked As-contaminated fish, the health risk to humans is <10(-6) excess bladder cancer risk level for lifetime exposure; as the incidence ratios of liver and lung cancers are generally acceptable at risk ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-4), the consumption of baked As-contaminated fish is unlikely to pose a significant risk to human health. However, contaminated fish cooked by frying resulted in significant health risks, showing the highest cumulative incidence ratios of liver cancer. We also show that males have higher cumulative incidence ratio of liver cancer than females. We found that although cooking resulted in an increase for As levels in As-contaminated fish, the risk to human health of consuming baked fish is nevertheless acceptable. We suggest the adoption of baking as a cooking method and warn against frying As-contaminated fish. We conclude that the concentration of contaminants after cooking should be taken into consideration when assessing the risk to human health.


Assuntos
Arsênio/metabolismo , Exposição Ambiental , Peixes , Contaminação de Alimentos/análise , Poluentes Químicos da Água/metabolismo , Animais , Arsênio/farmacocinética , Culinária , Relação Dose-Resposta a Droga , Monitoramento Ambiental , Feminino , Água Subterrânea/análise , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Estatísticos , Medição de Risco , Taiwan , Poluentes Químicos da Água/farmacocinética
12.
Water Res ; 257: 121721, 2024 Jun 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38728782

RESUMO

Microplastics (MPs) waste is widespread globally in water systems. The opportunistic human pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa can cause serious acute and chronic infections that are notoriously difficult to treat. Ciprofloxacin (CIP) is broadly applied as an anti-P. aeruginosa drug. A growing evidence reveals that antibiotic-resistance genes-carrying Pseudomonas aeruginosa were detected on MPs forming plastisphere due to their adsorbability along with high occurrence of CIP in water environments. The MPs-niched CIP-resistant P. aeruginosa has been likely to emerge as an unignorable public health issue. Here, we offered a novel approach to assess the development of CIP-resistant P. aeruginosa under MPs-antibiotic coexistence at a water region scale. By combing the adsorption isotherm models used to estimate CIP condensation around MPs and a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic-based microbial population dynamic model, we predicted the P. aeruginosa development on CIP-adsorbed MPs in waters. Our assessment revealed a high antibiotic resistance in the P. aeruginosa populations (∼50 %) with a wider range of waterborne total cell counts (∼10-2-104 cfu mL-1) among water regions in that the resistance proportion was primarily determined by CIP pollution level and relative abundance of various polymer type of MPs. We implicate that water region-specific MPs were highly likely to provide media for P. aeruginosa propagation. Our results highlight the importance of antibiotic-resistant pathogen colonization-emerging environmental medium interactions when addressing global threat from MPs pollution, in the context of MPs-antibiotics co-contamination assessment and for the continued provision of water system management.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos , Ciprofloxacina , Microplásticos , Pseudomonas aeruginosa , Pseudomonas aeruginosa/efeitos dos fármacos , Ciprofloxacina/farmacologia , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana
13.
Environ Pollut ; 349: 123943, 2024 May 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38599271

RESUMO

Aeromonas hydrophila has ability to spread tetracycline resistance (tetR) under stresses of oxytetracycline (OTC), one of the most important antibiotics in aquaculture industry. Even though environmental reservoir of Aeromonas allows it to be at interfaces across One Health components, a robust modelling framework for rigorously assessing health risks is currently lacking. We proposed a One Health-based approach and leveraged recent advances in quantitative microbial risk assessment appraised by available dataset to interpret interactions at the human-animal-environment interfaces in various exposure scenarios. The dose-response models were constructed considering the effects on mortality for aquaculture species and tetR genes transfer for humans. A scenario-specific risk assessment on pond species-associated A. hydrophila infection and human gut-associated tetR genes transfer was examined. Risk-based control strategies were involved to test their effectiveness. We showed that farmed shrimp exposed to tetracycline-resistant A. hydrophila in OTC-contaminated water experienced higher infection risk (relative risk: 1.25-1.34). The tetR genes transfer risk for farmers in shrimp ponds (∼2 × 10-4) and swimmers in coastal areas (∼4 × 10-6) during autumn exceeded acceptable risk (10-6). This cautionary finding underscores the importance of accounting for monitoring, assessing, and mitigating occupational health hazards among workers in shrimp farming sectors within future One Health-based strategies for managing water infection risks. We recommend that OTC emission rate together with A. hydrophila concentration should be reduced by up to 70-99% to protect human, farmed shrimp, and environmental health. Our predictive framework can be adopted for other systems and be used as a "risk detector" for assessing tetR-related health risks that invoke potential risk management on addressing sustainable mitigation on offsetting residual OTC emission and tetR genes spread in a species-human-environmental health system.


Assuntos
Aeromonas hydrophila , Aquicultura , Saúde Única , Resistência a Tetraciclina , Aeromonas hydrophila/efeitos dos fármacos , Humanos , Animais , Resistência a Tetraciclina/genética , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Medição de Risco , Oxitetraciclina/farmacologia , Infecções por Bactérias Gram-Negativas
14.
J Epidemiol ; 23(4): 251-61, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23728484

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We used the results of a contact behavior survey in conjunction with droplet pattern measurement to investigate the indoor population transmission dynamics of respiratory infections. METHODS: A total of 404 questionnaires on all contact behaviors were distributed to junior high school students. Droplet number concentration and size distribution generated by coughing and talking were measured by droplet experimentation. A deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model was used to simulate the indoor transmission dynamics of influenza infection among schoolchildren. RESULTS: Results indicated that the average contact rates ranged from 9.44 to 11.18 person(-1) day(-1) for grades 7 to 9. We showed that total median droplet number concentrations were 9.01 × 10(7) and 8.23 × 10(7) droplets per cubic meter for coughing and talking, respectively. Population dynamic simulations indicated that the size-dependent median number of droplets per person resulted in a maximum of 8 and 10 infected persons on day 4, respectively, for talking and coughing activities. CONCLUSIONS: Human contact behavior and airborne droplet characteristics may substantially change predicted indoor population transmission dynamics of influenza infection.


Assuntos
Microbiologia do Ar , Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados/análise , Busca de Comunicante , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Modelos Biológicos , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Tosse , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fala , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem
15.
Chemosphere ; 311(Pt 2): 137209, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36368545

RESUMO

Despite increasing the public awareness of ubiquity of microplastics (MPs) in air, the issue on particular source of tire wear particles (TWPs) emission into atmosphere and their exposure-associated human health has not received the attention it deserves. Here we linked vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) estimates covering demography, socio-environmental, and transportation features and emission factors to predict regional emission patterns of TWP-derived atmospheric MPs. A data-driven probabilistic approach was developed to consider variability across the datasets and uncertainty of model parameters in terms of country-level and vehicle-type emissions. We showed that country-specific VKT from billion to trillion vehicle-kilometer resulted in 103-105 metric tons of airborne TWP-derived atmospheric MPs annually in the period 2015-2019, with the highest emissions from passenger cars and heavy-duty vehicles. On average, we found that airborne TWP emissions from passenger cars by country had substantial decreased (up to ∼33%) during COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 and pronounced increased (by a factor ∼1.9) from vehicle electrification by the next three decades. We conclude that the stunning mass of airborne TWP is a predominant source of atmospheric MP. We underscore the necessity of TWP emissions control among the United States, China, and India. Our findings can be of great use to environmental transportation planners for devising vehicle/tire-oriented decision support tools. Our data offer information to enhance TWP-exposure estimates, to examine long-term exposure trends, and subsequently to improve health risk assessment during pandemic outbreak and future electrification.

16.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 30(13): 36228-36243, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36547825

RESUMO

The Wells-Riley model invokes human physiological and engineering parameters to successfully treat airborne transmission of infectious diseases. Applications of this model would have high potentiality on evaluating policy actions and interventions intended to improve public safety efforts on preventing the spread of COVID-19 in an enclosed space. Here, we constructed the interaction relationships among basic reproduction number (R0) - exposure time - indoor population number by using the Wells-Riley model to provide a robust means to assist in planning containment efforts. We quantified SARS-CoV-2 changes in a case study of two Wuhan (Fangcang and Renmin) hospitals. We conducted similar approach to develop control measures in various hospital functional units by taking all accountable factors. We showed that inhalation rates of individuals proved crucial for influencing the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, followed by air supply rate and exposure time. We suggest a minimum air change per hour (ACH) of 7 h-1 would be at least appropriate with current room volume requirements in healthcare buildings when indoor population number is < 10 and exposure time is < 1 h with one infector and low activity levels being considered. However, higher ACH (> 16 h-1) with optimal arranged-exposure time/people and high-efficiency air filters would be suggested if more infectors or higher activity levels are presented. Our models lay out a practical metric for evaluating the efficacy of control measures on COVID-19 infection in built environments. Our case studies further indicate that the Wells-Riley model provides a predictive and mechanistic basis for empirical COVID-19 impact reduction planning and gives a framework to treat highly transmissible but mechanically heterogeneous airborne SARS-CoV-2.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Hospitais
17.
J Epidemiol ; 22(4): 353-63, 2012.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22522150

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We linked viral titers and respiratory symptom scores for seasonal influenza to estimate the effective contact rate among schoolchildren. METHODS: We analyzed 274 diary-based questionnaires. In addition, 2 sets of influenza data from published studies were used to investigate the relationship between viral titer, total symptom score, and normalized contact rate in children. RESULTS: The mean number (SD) of contacts for children in grades 7 to 9 ranged from 9.44 ± 8.68 to 11.18 ± 7.98 person⁻¹ day⁻¹; contact behavior was similar across school grades. The mean number of contacts was 5.66 ± 6.23 person⁻¹ day⁻¹ (range, 0 to 44 person⁻¹ day⁻¹) for the age group of 13 to 19 years. Estimated contact age, household size, contact duration, and contact frequency were the variables most strongly associated with total number of contacts. We also found that a reduction in total respiratory symptom scores among infected individuals had a positive correlation with an increase in the normalized contact rate. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between daily virus titer and respiratory symptom score can be used to estimate the effective contact rate in explaining the spread of an airborne transmissible disease. The present findings can be incorporated into population-dynamic models of influenza transmission among schoolchildren.


Assuntos
Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Estações do Ano , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Carga Viral , Adolescente , Criança , Feminino , Humanos , Influenza Humana/fisiopatologia , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Dinâmica Populacional , Fatores de Risco , Inquéritos e Questionários
18.
BMC Public Health ; 12: 29, 2012 Jan 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22236209

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Variety of environmental and individual factors can cause tuberculosis (TB) incidence change. The purpose of this study was to assess the characteristics of TB trends in the period 2004 - 2008 in Taiwan by month, year, gender, age, temperature, seasonality, and aborigines. METHODS: The generalized regression models were used to examine the potential predictors for the monthly TB incidence in regional and national scales. RESULTS: We found that (i) in Taiwan the average TB incidence was 68 per 100,000 population with mortality rate of 0.036 person-1 yr-1, (ii) the highest TB incidence rate was found in eastern Taiwan (116 per 100,000 population) with the largest proportion of TB relapse cases (8.17%), (iii) seasonality, aborigines, gender, and age had a consistent and dominant role in constructing TB incidence patterns in Taiwan, and (iv) gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature showed strong association with TB trends in aboriginal subpopulations. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed Poisson regression model is capable of forecasting patterns of TB incidence at regional and national scales. This study suggested that assessment of TB trends in eastern Taiwan presents an important opportunity for understanding the time-series dynamics and control of TB infections, given that this is the typical host demography in regions where these infections remain major public health problems.


Assuntos
Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Distribuição de Poisson , Estações do Ano , Fatores Sexuais , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
19.
Ecotoxicology ; 21(4): 1177-87, 2012 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22359017

RESUMO

Arsenic (As) is the element of greatest ecotoxicological concern in aquatic environments. Effective monitoring and diagnosis of As pollution via a biological early warning system is a great challenge for As-affected regions. The purpose of this study was to synthesize water chemistry-based bioavailability and valve daily rhythm in Corbicula fluminea to design a biomonitoring system for detecting waterborne As. We integrated valve daily rhythm dynamic patterns and water chemistry-based Hill dose-response model to build into a programmatic mechanism of inductance-based valvometry technique for providing a rapid and cost-effective dynamic detection system. A LabVIEW graphic control program in a personal computer was employed to demonstrate completely the functional presentation of the present dynamic system. We verified the simulated dissolved As concentrations based on the valve daily rhythm behavior with published experimental data. Generally, the performance of this proposed biomonitoring system demonstrates fairly good applicability to detect waterborne As concentrations when the field As concentrations are less than 1 mg L(-1). We also revealed that the detection times were dependent on As exposure concentrations. This biomonitoring system could particularly provide real-time transmitted information on the waterborne As activity under various aquatic environments. This parsimonious C. fluminea valve rhythm behavior-based real-time biomonitoring system presents a valuable effort to promote the automated biomonitoring and offers early warnings on potential ecotoxicological risks in regions with elevated As exposure concentrations.


Assuntos
Arsênio/toxicidade , Corbicula/efeitos dos fármacos , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade , Algoritmos , Animais , Corbicula/fisiologia , Ecotoxicologia/métodos , Desenho de Equipamento , Água Doce/química , Modelos Teóricos
20.
Ecotoxicology ; 21(8): 2264-75, 2012 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22851126

RESUMO

The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (λ) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 µg L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on λ was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants.


Assuntos
Cobre/farmacocinética , Cobre/toxicidade , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Tilápia/fisiologia , Poluentes Químicos da Água/farmacocinética , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade , Animais , Peso Corporal , Ingestão de Energia , Feminino , Modelos Biológicos , Crescimento Demográfico , Reprodução , Medição de Risco , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Tilápia/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Fatores de Tempo
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