Predicting stochastic community dynamics in grasslands under the assumption of competitive symmetry.

Community dynamics is influenced by multiple ecological processes such as environmental spatiotemporal variation, competition between individuals and demographic stochasticity. Quantifying the respective influence of these various processes and making predictions on community dynamics require the use of a dynamical framework encompassing these various components. We here demonstrate how to adapt the framework of stochastic community dynamics to the peculiarities of herbaceous communities, by using a short temporal resolution adapted to the time scale of competition between herbaceous plants, and by taking into account the seasonal drops in plant aerial biomass following winter, harvesting or consumption by herbivores. We develop a hybrid inference method for this novel modelling framework that both uses numerical simulations and likelihood computations. Applying this methodology to empirical data from the Jena biodiversity experiment, we find that environmental stochasticity has a larger effect on community dynamics than demographic stochasticity, and that both effects are generally smaller than observation errors at the plot scale. We further evidence that plant intrinsic growth rates and carrying capacities are moderately predictable from plant vegetative height, specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content. We do not find any trade-off between demographical components, since species with larger intrinsic growth rates tend to also have lower demographic and environmental variances. Finally, we find that our model is able to make relatively good predictions of multi-specific community dynamics based on the assumption of competitive symmetry.

Explaining ontogenetic shifts in root-shoot scaling with transient dynamics.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Simple models of herbaceous plant growth based on optimal partitioning theory predict, at steady state, an isometric relationship between shoot and root biomass during plant ontogeny, i.e. a constant root-shoot ratio. This prediction has received mixed empirical support, suggesting either that optimal partitioning is too coarse an assumption to model plant biomass allocation, or that additional processes need to be modelled to account for empirical findings within the optimal partitioning framework. In this study, simulations are used to compare quantitatively two potential explanations for observed non-isometric relationships, namely nutrient limitation during the experiments and initial developmental constraints. METHODS: A simple plant growth model was built to simulate the growth of herbaceous species, based on optimal partitioning theory combined with empirically measured plant functional traits. Its ability to reproduce plant relative growth rate and final root weight ratio was assessed against previously published data. Predicted root-shoot ratios during plant ontogeny were compared with experimental observations. The effects of nutrient limitation and initial developmental constraints on root-shoot ratios were then tested. KEY RESULTS: The model was found to reproduce overall plant growth patterns accurately, but failed, in its simplest form, at explaining non-isometric growth trajectories. Both nutrient limitation and ontogenetic developmental constraints were further shown to cause transient dynamics resulting in a deviation from isometry. Nitrogen limitation alone was not sufficient to explain the observed trajectories of most plant species. The inclusion of initial developmental constraints (fixed non-optimal initial root-shoot ratios) enabled the reproduction of the observed trajectories and were consistent with observed initial root-shoot ratios. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the fact that considering transient dynamics enables theoretical predictions based on optimal partitioning to be reconciled with empirically measured ontogenetic root-shoot allometries. The transient dynamics cannot be solely explained by nutrient limitation during the experiments, pointing to a likely role for initial developmental constraints in the observed non-isometric growth trajectories.