The harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS) identifies non-severe patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: We previously described a scoring system to identify patients with harmless acute pancreatitis as defined by absence of pancreatic necrosis, no need for artificial ventilation or dialysis, and non-fatal course. This scoring system, the Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS), can be quickly calculated from three parameters: absence of abdominal tenderness or rebound, normal hematocrit and normal creatinine level. We aim to assess the positive predictive value (PPV) of the HAPS by performing a meta-analysis of subsequently published studies. METHODS: We performed a literature search using Pubmed, Web of ScienceTM and Google Scholar. We used random effects models, with maximum likelihood estimates, to estimate the PPV of HAPS. We produced forest plots and used the I2 statistic to quantify heterogeneity. RESULTS: Twenty reports covering 6374 patients were identified. The overall PPV based on 16 studies that closely followed the original description of the HAPS system was 97% (95%CI 95-99%) with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 76%; P < 0.01). For 11 studies in which HAPS was used to identify patients with mild AP, the overall PPV dropped to 83% (74-91%). For 8 studies in which HAPS was used to predict non-fatal course the overall PPV was 98% (97-100%). CONCLUSION: The HAPS, if used as originally defined, accurately identifies patients with non-severe AP who will not require ICU care and facilitate selection of patients who can be discharged after a short stay on a general ward or can even be cared for at home. This could free hospital beds for other purposes and decrease healthcare costs.

Influence of Age on 2040 Cancer Burden in the Older Population of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Public Health Implications.

INTRODUCTION AND STUDY AIMS: The underlying population of global regions varies widely and is a major determinant of regional cancer differences. The aims were to: (1) estimate the cancer burden in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in 2040 for the ≥70 population and (2) assess the public health implications for this cancer increase. METHODS: We used Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) estimates of cancer incidence and mortality for people aged 70 years or more in GCC countries from 2018 to 2040 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. For population growth, we used data for the same period from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. From these, we calculated the predicted increase in the number of cancer cases and cancer deaths from 2018 to 2040 and the proportion of cases/deaths represented by those aged 70+ for the 2 time periods. FINDINGS: In the GCC countries, the predicted number of newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths in the older population will increase by 465% and 462% respectively due to demographic changes-greater than other countries in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region, or in countries of similar economic development. The largest predicted increases will be for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Based on the predicted population age, cancer burden among older people in the GCC countries will increase by approximately 460%. CONCLUSION: By the year 2040, the relationship between cancer and age will cause a 4- to 5-fold increase in the cancer burden in the GCC. These predictable changes will require additional planning and resources to provide appropriate healthcare.

Cystic Fibrosis Colorectal Cancer Screening Consensus Recommendations.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Improved therapy has substantially increased survival of persons with cystic fibrosis (CF). But the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in adults with CF is 5-10 times greater compared to the general population, and 25-30 times greater in CF patients after an organ transplantation. To address this risk, the CF Foundation convened a multi-stakeholder task force to develop CRC screening recommendations. METHODS: The 18-member task force consisted of experts including pulmonologists, gastroenterologists, a social worker, nurse coordinator, surgeon, epidemiologist, statistician, CF adult, and a parent. The committee comprised 3 workgroups: Cancer Risk, Transplant, and Procedure and Preparation. A guidelines specialist at the CF Foundation conducted an evidence synthesis February-March 2016 based on PubMed literature searches. Task force members conducted additional independent searches. A total of 1159 articles were retrieved. After initial screening, the committee read 198 articles in full and analyzed 123 articles to develop recommendation statements. An independent decision analysis evaluating the benefits of screening relative to harms and resources required was conducted by the Department of Public Health at Erasmus Medical Center, Netherlands using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model from the Cancer Innervation and Surveillance Modeling Network. The task force included recommendation statements in the final guideline only if they reached an 80% acceptance threshold. RESULTS: The task force makes 10 CRC screening recommendations that emphasize shared, individualized decision-making and familiarity with CF-specific gastrointestinal challenges. We recommend colonoscopy as the preferred screening method, initiation of screening at age 40 years, 5-year re-screening and 3-year surveillance intervals (unless shorter interval is indicated by individual findings), and a CF-specific intensive bowel preparation. Organ transplant recipients with CF should initiate CRC screening at age 30 years within 2 years of the transplantation because of the additional risk for colon cancer associated with immunosuppression. CONCLUSIONS: These recommendations aim to help CF adults, families, primary care physicians, gastroenterologists, and CF and transplantation centers address the issue of CRC screening. They differ from guidelines developed for the general population with respect to the recommended age of screening initiation, screening method, preparation, and the interval for repeat screening and surveillance.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared with the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. METHODS: We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess if optimal screening strategies would change. RESULTS: Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at an age of 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in this population is not clear. CONCLUSIONS: Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost effective. Because of the higher risk of CRC in these patients, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis.

Capacity building in health care professions within the Gulf cooperation council countries: paving the way forward.

BACKGROUND: There is a worldwide shortage of health care workers. This problem is particularly severe in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries because of shortages in certain medical disciplines, due to a lack of nationally-trained professionals and a less developed educational system compared to other high income countries. Consequently, GCC countries are heavily dependent on an expatriate health care workforce; a problem exacerbated by high turnover. We discuss challenges and potential strategies for improving and strengthening capacity building efforts in health care professions in the GCC. MAIN TEXT: In the GCC, there are 139 schools providing professional health education in medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing, midwifery, and other specialties. Health education school density reported for the GCC countries ranges between 2.2 and 2.8 schools per one million inhabitants, except in Oman where it is 4.0 per one million inhabitants. The GCC countries rely heavily on expatriate health professionals. The number of physicians and nurses in the GCC countries are 2.1 and 4.5 per 1000 respectively, compared to 2.8 and 7.9 among member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Interestingly, the number of dentists and pharmacists is higher in the GCC countries compared to OECD countries. A nationally trained health care workforce is essential for the GCC countries. Physiotherapy and occupational therapy are two identified areas where growth and development are recommended. Custom-tailored continuing medical education and continuing professional development (CPD) programs can augment the skills of health practitioners, and allow for the expansion of their scope of practice when warranted. CONCLUSION: Capacity building can play an essential role in addressing the major health challenges and improving the overall quality of health care in the region. Efforts aimed at increasing the number of locally-trained graduates and developing and implementing need-based CPD programs are vital for capacity building and lifelong learning in health care professions.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared to the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. METHODS: We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess whether optimal screening strategies would change. RESULTS: Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at age 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in population is not clear. CONCLUSIONS: Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost-effective. Due to the higher risk in these patients for CRC, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis.

Knowledge and perceptions about Zika virus in a Middle East country.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus, an emerging serious infectious disease, is a threat to persons living or travelling to regions where it is currently endemic, and also to contacts of infected individuals. The aim of this study was to assess knowledge about this new public health threat to persons residing in a Middle Eastern country. METHODS: We conducted a survey at several international universities in Qatar to assess knowledge and awareness about this disease. An adapted version of the survey was also conducted using online channels from Qatar. RESULTS: The median age of the 446 participants, was 25 years, 280 (63%) were females, and 32% were from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) or other Middle East countries. Based upon their knowledge about availability of a vaccine, role of mosquitoes and other modes of transmission, and disease complications, we classified respondent's knowledge as "poor" (66%), "basic" (27%) or "broad" (7%). Forty-five (16%) persons with poor knowledge considered themselves to be well-informed. CONCLUSIONS: This report from a sample of persons associated with Middle East educational complex, reveals inadequate knowledge about Zika virus, a serious emerging infectious disease. Although few cases have been reported from the region, future cases are possible, since this area is a transit hub connecting currently infected regions to North America, Europe and Asia. As a preventive measure, an educational program about Zika virus would be valuable, especially for individuals or family members travelling to afflicted regions.

The epidemiology of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer.

Acute pancreatitis is one of the most frequent gastrointestinal causes of hospital admission in the United States. Chronic pancreatitis, although lower in incidence, significantly reduces patients' quality of life. Pancreatic cancer is associated with a high mortality rate and is one of the top 5 causes of death from cancer. The burden of pancreatic disorders is expected to increase over time. The risk and etiology of pancreatitis differ with age and sex, and all pancreatic disorders affect the black population more than any other race. Gallstones are the most common cause of acute pancreatitis, and early cholecystectomy eliminates the risk of future attacks. Alcohol continues to be the single most important risk factor for chronic pancreatitis. Smoking is an independent risk factor for acute and chronic pancreatitis, and its effects could synergize with those of alcohol. Significant risk factors for pancreatic cancer include smoking and non-O blood groups. Alcohol abstinence and smoking cessation can alter the progression of pancreatitis and reduce recurrence; smoking cessation is the most effective strategy to reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer.

Allergies and risk of pancreatic cancer: a pooled analysis from the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium.

In order to quantify the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with history of any allergy and specific allergies, to investigate differences in the association with risk according to age, gender, smoking status, or body mass index, and to study the influence of age at onset, we pooled data from 10 case-control studies. In total, there were 3,567 cases and 9,145 controls. Study-specific odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, smoking status, and body mass index. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed by using the Cochran Q statistic. Study-specific odds ratios were pooled by using a random-effects model. The odds ratio for any allergy was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 1.00) with heterogeneity among studies (P < 0.001). Heterogeneity was attributable to one study; with that study excluded, the pooled odds ratio was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.84) (Pheterogeneity = 0.23). Hay fever (odds ratio = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.96) and allergy to animals (odds ratio = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.94) were related to lower risk, while there was no statistically significant association with other allergies or asthma. There were no major differences among subgroups defined by age, gender, smoking status, or body mass index. Older age at onset of allergies was slightly more protective than earlier age.

Dietary patterns and associated lifestyle factors among university students in Qatar.

Objective: We aimed to investigate the association between university students' dietary patterns, their demographics and lifestyle in a cross-sectional study in Qatar. Participants: 370 students in eight universities in Qatar enrolled between February 2017 and February 2018. Methods: Based on a structured questionnaire, dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis, and their associations with student characteristics were assessed using logistic regression. Results: Four dietary patterns were identified. The 'fast food' pattern was associated with being younger and male (p-values ≤ 0.1). The 'traditional diet' pattern was associated with not skipping meals or eating when bored (p-values = 0.1). The 'healthy diet' pattern was associated with regular exercise and having time to eat healthy foods (p-values ≤ 0.01). The 'protein shake' pattern was associated with being male and engaging in more vigorous physical activity (p-values ≤ 0.01). Conclusions: Our findings provide a roadmap for the prioritization of population-specific interventions in university students within Qatar and the region.

Pancreatic pseudocysts: prognostic factors for their development and their spontaneous resolution in the setting of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Previous studies on the development of pancreatic pseudocysts following acute pancreatitis were monocentric, mostly retrospective, did not fulfil the Atlanta criteria, and featured a mixture of patients with post-acute and chronic pancreatitis. Therefore, the natural course of pancreatic pseudocysts after acute pancreatitis and the reasons for their spontaneous resolution remain unknown. METHODS: This prospective study of 369 patients investigated the prognostic factors for development of pancreatic pseudocysts and for their spontaneous resolution after a first episode of acute pancreatitis. RESULTS: On discharge, 124 (34%) patients still had pancreatic fluid collections. The prognostic factor for these fluid collections was severe acute pancreatitis. Follow-up examination 3 and 6 months later showed pancreatic pseudocysts in 36 (10%) patients (30 with and 6 without prior fluid collection), and in 27 (7%) patients (25 with and 2 without pancreatic pseudocyst after 3 months), respectively. The prognostic factors for their development were alcohol abuse and an initial severe course of the disease. Spontaneous complete resolution of the pancreatic pseudocysts occurred in 11 (31%) of the 36 patients. Prognostic factors for the spontaneous resolution were no or mild symptoms (nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain) and a maximal cyst diameter of <4 cm. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a first severe attack of acute pancreatitis and fluid collections at discharge should be checked by ultrasonography for pancreatic pseudocysts 3 months later. In patients with a small pseudocyst and mild symptoms therapy may be postponed for a further 3 months, since spontaneous resolution is possible.

Motor vehicle injuries in Qatar: time trends in a rapidly developing Middle Eastern nation.

Despite their wealth and modern road systems, traffic injury rates in Middle Eastern countries are generally higher than those in Western countries. The authors examined traffic injuries in Qatar during 2000-2010, a period of rapid population growth, focusing on the impact of speed control cameras installed in 2007 on overall injury rates and mortality. During the period 2000-2006, prior to camera installation, the mean (SD) vehicular injury death rate per 100,000 was 19.9±4.1. From 2007 to 2010, the mean (SD) vehicular death rates were significantly lower: 14.7±1.5 (p=0.028). Non-fatal severe injury rates also declined, but mild injury rates increased, perhaps because of increased traffic congestion and improved notification. It is possible that speed cameras decreased speeding enough to affect the death rate, without affecting overall injury rates. These data suggest that in a rapidly growing Middle Eastern country, photo enforcement (speed) cameras can be an important component of traffic control, but other measures will be required for maximum impact.

Cancer in Cystic Fibrosis: A Narrative Review of Prevalence, Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment Challenges: Adult Cystic Fibrosis Series.

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a progressive monogenetic disorder that causes persistent pulmonary disease, but also affects other organ systems, including the digestive tract. Recent advances in treatment and care of patients with CF, including the use of new and highly effective CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulators, have led to a dramatic increase in survival. Young patients with CF now can expect to live to or beyond middle age, when cancer is more frequent. Patients with CF now are known to face an increased risk of digestive tract cancer, particularly cancer of the colon. The risk, which could be triggered by associated CF-related conditions or other genetic mechanisms, is even greater in patients who received a transplant. Also some evidence suggests that adenomatous polyps develop more frequently in patients with CF and at an earlier age than in patients without CF. To reduce the excess risk of intestinal cancer in patients with CF, the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation has developed colonoscopy-based guidelines. For nontransplanted patients, colonoscopy should begin at 40 years of age, with rescreening at 5-year intervals; the screening interval should be shortened to 3 years if adenomatous polyps are discovered. For transplanted patients, screening should start at 30 years of age, or within 2 years of the transplant operation. Before colonoscopy, it is essential for patients with CF to undergo a special, more intensive bowel preparation than normally used for those without CF. Whether the new drugs that have dramatically improved morbidity and mortality for patients with CF will alter the risk of cancer is unknown and needs to be assessed in future studies.

Physical Activity and Its Barriers and Facilitators among University Students in Qatar: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Physical inactivity is a leading risk factor for non-communicable diseases worldwide. This study investigated physical activity (PA) level among university students in Qatar and assessed other lifestyle and demographic factors associated with PA. A cross-sectional study was conducted between February 2017 and February 2018. A self-administered questionnaire, comprising questions from the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and other validated questionnaires, was used to assess PA and other lifestyle behaviors, including sedentary behavior, stress, sleep, dietary habits, and smoking habits. The results were reported according to the STROBE guidelines. A total of 370 students (response rate = 95.6%) were recruited from eight universities via quota sampling. The prevalence of physically active students­as per the World Health Organization's recommendation for PA of 150−300 min/week­was 64.9% (75.2% in males and 58.3% in females). Females and students >20 years old were half as likely to be active compared with males and younger students. More males enjoyed getting regular exercise (83.6% vs. 67.7%, p-value = 0.002). Time spent sitting was similar during weekdays and weekends (mean time ± SD = 480.8 ± 277.7 min/week vs. 492.1 ± 265.0 min/week). Sports facilities and green spaces appear to help increase PA among university students in Qatar. Public health interventions should focus on improving PA-related perception and knowledge among students to further increase PA participation.

Factors associated with perceived stress in Middle Eastern university students.

Objective: University students face high levels of stress-related factors, such as an unfamiliar environment, challenging workload, and uncertainty about their ability to succeed. Participants: A total of 370 students in Qatar who consented to participate between February 2017 and February 2018. Methods: This cross-sectional study assessed perceived stress [using a validated 4-point perceived stress scale (PSS-4)], as well as diet, exercise, body mass index, sleep, and life satisfaction. Results: Among students aged 18-39 (mean = 20.1 ± 3.0 years), PSS-4 scores varied between 0 and 16 (mean = 7.4 ± 3.4). Elevated stress was significantly associated with female sex, country of origin, residing off-campus, eating when bored, lack of self-discipline, disturbed sleep, and low levels of life satisfaction. Furthermore, students with PSS-4 scores above the median level were 2.3 times likelier to report difficulty concentrating on academic work. Conclusion: Elevated stress levels are present in university students in Qatar. Strengthening coping skills may improve health and academic performance.