Candidate pathway analysis of surfactant proteins identifies CTSH and SFTA2 that influences lung cancer risk.

Pulmonary surfactant is a lipoprotein synthesized and secreted by alveolar type II cells in lung. We evaluated the associations between 200,139 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of 40 surfactant-related genes and lung cancer risk using genotyped data from two independent lung cancer genome-wide association studies. Discovery data included 18,082 cases and 13,780 controls of European ancestry. Replication data included 1,914 cases and 3,065 controls of European descent. Using multivariate logistic regression, we found novel SNPs in surfactant-related genes CTSH [rs34577742 C > T, odds ratio (OR) = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.89-0.93, P = 7.64 × 10-9] and SFTA2 (rs3095153 G > A, OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.10-1.21, P = 1.27 × 10-9) associated with overall lung cancer in the discovery data and validated in an independent replication data-CTSH (rs34577742 C > T, OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.80-0.96, P = 5.76 × 10-3) and SFTA2 (rs3095153 G > A, OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.28, P = 3.25 × 10-2). Among ever smokers, we found SNPs in CTSH (rs34577742 C > T, OR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.85-0.92, P = 1.94 × 10-7) and SFTA2 (rs3095152 G > A, OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.14-1.27, P = 4.25 × 10-11) associated with overall lung cancer in the discovery data and validated in the replication data-CTSH (rs34577742 C > T, OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.97, P = 1.64 × 10-2) and SFTA2 (rs3095152 G > A, OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.01-1.30, P = 3.81 × 10-2). Subsequent transcriptome-wide association study using expression weights from a lung expression quantitative trait loci study revealed genes most strongly associated with lung cancer are CTSH (PTWAS = 2.44 × 10-4) and SFTA2 (PTWAS = 2.32 × 10-6).

Association between Colonoscopy Sedation Type and Polyp Detection: A Registry-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death. Adenomas and serrated polyps are precursors of colorectal cancer, with serrated polyps being more difficult to detect during colonoscopy. The relationship between propofol use and polyp detection remains unclear. The authors investigated the association of propofol-based versus mild-moderate sedation on adenoma and serrated polyp detection during colonoscopy. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used observational data from the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry. Patients aged greater than 50 yr with screening or surveillance colonoscopies between January 1, 2015, and February 28, 2020, were included. Exclusions were diagnostic examinations, no sedation, missing pathology data, and poor bowel preparation. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate differences in polyp detection between propofol and moderate sedation in the full sample while adjusting for covariates. Propensity score adjustment and clustering at the endoscopist level were used in a restricted sample analysis that included endoscopists and facilities with between 5% and 95% propofol sedation use. RESULTS: A total of 54,063 colonoscopies were analyzed in the full sample and 18,998 in the restricted sample. Serrated polyp prevalence was significantly higher using propofol (9,957 of 29,312; 34.0% [95% CI, 33.4 to 34.5%]) versus moderate sedation (6,066 of 24,751; 24.5% [95% CI, 24.0 to 25.1%]) in the full sample and restricted samples (1,410 of 4,661; 30.3% [95% CI, 28.9 to 31.6%] vs. 3,690 of 14,337; 25.7% [95% CI, 25.0 to 26.5%]). In the full sample multivariate logistic regression, propofol was associated with higher neoplasm (adjusted odds ratio, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.21 to 1.29]), adenoma (odds ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.11]), and serrated polyp detection (odds ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.46 to 1.57]). In the restricted sample using inverse probability of treatment weighted propensity score adjustment and clustering at the endoscopist level, an attenuated but statistically significant effect size was observed for serrated polyps (odds ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.19]), but not for adenomas (odds ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.95 to 1.05]) or any neoplastic lesion (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.98 to 1.08]). CONCLUSIONS: Propofol sedation during colonoscopy may be associated with improved detection of serrated polyps, but not adenomas.

Higher Serrated Polyp Detection Rates Are Associated With Lower Risk of Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancer: Data From the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry.

INTRODUCTION: We used New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry data to examine the association between postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC) and sessile serrated detection rates (SSLDRs). METHODS: We included patients with either a colonoscopy or a CRC diagnosis in the NH State Cancer Registry. PCCRC was any CRC diagnosed ≥ 6 months after index examination. RESULTS: Of 26,901 patients, 162 were diagnosed with PCCRC. The hazard ratio for PCCRC was lowest for patients whose endoscopists had the highest SSLDR quintile (≥6%) (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.50). DISCUSSION: Endoscopists with higher SSLDRs had lower risks of PCCRC. These data validate SSLDR as a clinically relevant quality measure.

Sex differences in outcomes among adults undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Although the differences in short-term outcomes between male and female patients in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been well studied, it remains unclear if these sex disparities extend to other long-term adverse outcomes after AAA repair, such as reintervention and late rupture. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 13,007 patients who underwent either endovascular (EVAR) or open AAA repair (OAR) between 2003 and 2015 using data from the Vascular Quality Initiative registries. Eligible patients were linked to fee-for-service Medicare claims to identify late outcomes of rupture and aneurysm-specific reintervention. RESULTS: The mean age of our cohort was 76 ± 6.7 years, 22% were female, 94% were White, and 77% underwent EVAR. The 10-year rupture incidence was slightly higher for women at 4.8 per 1000 person-years, vs 3.9 for men, but this difference was not statistically significant after risk adjustment (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-1.73). Likewise, we found no sex difference in reintervention rates (5.1 vs 4.8 in women per 1000 person-years) even after risk adjustment (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.83-1.09). Regression models suggest effect modification by repair type for reintervention, where women who underwent index EVAR had a higher risk of reintervention than men (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.93-1.26), whereas women who underwent OAR were at a lower risk of reintervention than men (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.58-1.08); however, neither effect reached statistical significance within each subgroup. In addition, we found that the risk of reintervention for women vs men varied by clinical presentation, where women were less likely to undergo reintervention after an elective or symptomatic AAA repair but were more likely to undergo reintervention after a repair for AAA rupture (HR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.05-2.75). CONCLUSIONS: Male and female patients who underwent AAA repair had similar rates of reintervention and late aneurysm rupture in the 10 years after their procedure. However, our findings suggest that repair type and clinical presentation may affect the role of sex in clinical outcomes and warrant further exploration in these subgroups.

Endoscopist adenomas-per-colonoscopy detection rates and risk for postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer: Data from the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Adenomas per colonoscopy (APC) may be a better measure of colonoscopy quality than adenoma detection rate (ADR) because it credits endoscopists for each detected adenoma. There are few data examining the association between APC and postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC) incidence. We used data from the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry to examine APC and PCCRC risk. METHODS: We included New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry patients with an index examination and at least 1 follow-up event, either a colonoscopy or a colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis. Our outcome was PCCRC defined as any CRC diagnosed ≥6 months after an index examination. The exposure variable was endoscopist-specific APC quintiles of .25, .40, .50, and .70. Cox regression was used to model the hazard of PCCRC on APC, controlled for age, sex, year of index examination, index findings, bowel preparation, and having more than 1 surveillance examination. RESULTS: In 32,535 patients, a lower hazard for PCCRC (n = 178) was observed for higher APCs as compared to APCs of <.25 (reference): .25 to <.40: hazard ratio (HR), .35; 95% confidence interval (CI), .22-.56; .40 to <.50: HR, .31; 95% CI, .20-.49; .50 to <.70: HR, .20; 95% CI, .11-.36; and ≥.70: HR, .19; 95% CI, .09-.37. When examining endoscopists with an ADR of at least 25%, an APC of <.50 was associated with a significantly higher hazard than an APC of ≥.50 (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.06-2.56). A large proportion of endoscopists-one-fifth (32 of 152; 21.1%)-had an ADR of ≥25% but an APC of <.50. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel data demonstrating lower PCCRC risk in examinations performed by endoscopists with higher APCs suggest that APC could be a useful quality measure. Quality improvement programs may identify important deficiencies in endoscopist detection performance by measuring APC for endoscopists with an ADR of ≥25%.

Association between sex and long-term outcomes of endovascular treatment for peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Endovascular peripheral vascular intervention (PVI) has become the primary revascularization technique used for peripheral artery disease (PAD). Yet, there is limited understanding of long-term outcomes of PVI among women versus men. In this study, our objective was to investigate sex differences in the long-term outcomes of patients undergoing PVI. METHODS: We performed a cohort study of patients undergoing PVI for PAD from January 1, 2010 to September 30, 2015 using data in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) registry. Patients were linked to fee-for-service Medicare claims to identify late outcomes including major amputation, reintervention, major adverse limb event (major amputation or reintervention [MALE]), and mortality. Sex differences in outcomes were evaluated using cumulative incidence curves, Gray's test, and mixed effects Cox proportional hazards regression accounting for patient and lesion characteristics using inverse probability weighted estimates. RESULTS: In this cohort of 15,437 patients, 44% (n = 6731) were women. Women were less likely to present with claudication than men (45% vs. 49%, p < 0.001, absolute standardized difference, d = 0.08) or be able to ambulate independently (ambulatory: 70% vs. 76%, p < 0.001, d = 0.14). There were no major sex differences in lesion characteristics, except for an increased frequency of tibial artery treatment in men (23% vs. 18% in women, p < 0.001, d = 0.12). Among patients with claudication, women had a higher risk-adjusted rate of major amputation (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-2.49), but a lower risk of mortality (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99). There were no sex differences in reintervention or MALE for patients with claudication. However, among patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia, women had a lower risk-adjusted hazard of major amputation (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.67-0.93), MALE (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.78-0.96), and mortality (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.79-0.94). CONCLUSION: There is significant heterogeneity in PVI outcomes among men and women, especially after stratifying by symptom severity. A lower overall mortality in women with claudication was accompanied by a higher risk of major amputation. Men with chronic limb-threatening ischemia had a higher risk of major amputation, MALE, and mortality. Developing sex-specific approaches to PVI that prioritizes limb outcomes in women can improve the quality of vascular care for men and women.

Using New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry data to assess United States and European post-polypectomy surveillance guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Our goal was to compare the updated European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) and United States Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer (USMSTF) high risk groups in predicting metachronous advanced neoplasia on first follow-up colonoscopy and long-term colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: We compared advanced metachronous neoplasia risk (serrated polyps ≥ 1 cm or with dysplasia, advanced adenomas [≥ 1 cm, villous, high grade dysplasia], CRC) on first surveillance colonoscopy in patients with high risk findings according to ESGE versus USMSTF guidelines. We also compared the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) of both guidelines for metachronous neoplasia. RESULTS: The risk for metachronous neoplasia in our sample (n = 20 458) was higher in the high risk USMSTF (3 year) (13.6 %; 95 %CI 12.3-14.9) and ESGE groups (13.6 %; 95 %CI 12.3-15.0) compared with the lowest risk USMSTF (5.1 %; 95 %CI 4.7-5.5; P < 0.001) and ESGE categories (6.3 %; 95 %CI 6.0-6.7; P < 0.001), respectively. Adding other groups such as USMSTF 5-10-year and 3-5-year groups to the 3-year category resulted in minimal change in the PPV and NPV for metachronous advanced neoplasia. High risk ESGE (hazard ratio [HR] 3.03, 95 %CI 1.97-4.65) and USMSTF (HR 3.07, 95 %CI 2.03-4.66) designations were associated with similar long-term CRC risk (CRC per 100 000 person-years: USMSTF 3-year group 3.54, 95 %CI 2.68-4.68; ESGE high risk group: 3.43, 95 %CI 2.57-4.59). CONCLUSION: Performance characteristics for the ESGE and USMSTF recommendations are similar in predicting metachronous advanced neoplasia and long-term CRC. The addition of risk groups, such as the USMSTF 5-10-year and 3-5-year groups to the USMSTF 3-year category did not alter the PPV or NPV significantly.

The association between cervical artery dissection and spinal manipulation among US adults.

PURPOSE: Cervical artery dissection (CeAD), which includes both vertebral artery dissection (VAD) and carotid artery dissection (CAD), is the most serious safety concern associated with cervical spinal manipulation (CSM). We evaluated the association between CSM and CeAD among US adults. METHODS: Through analysis of health claims data, we employed a case-control study with matched controls, a case-control design in which controls were diagnosed with ischemic stroke, and a case-crossover design in which recent exposures were compared to exposures in the same case that occurred 6-7 months earlier. We evaluated the association between CeAD and the 3-level exposure, CSM versus office visit for medical evaluation and management (E&M) versus neither, with E&M set as the referent group. RESULTS: We identified 2337 VAD cases and 2916 CAD cases. Compared to population controls, VAD cases were 0.17 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.32) times as likely to have received CSM in the previous week as compared to E&M. In other words, E&M was about 5 times more likely than CSM in the previous week in cases, relative to controls. CSM was 2.53 (95% CI 1.71 to 3.68) times as likely as E&M in the previous week among individuals with VAD than among individuals experiencing a stroke without CeAD. In the case-crossover study, CSM was 0.38 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.91) times as likely as E&M in the week before a VAD, relative to 6 months earlier. In other words, E&M was approximately 3 times more likely than CSM in the previous week in cases, relative to controls. Results for the 14-day and 30-day timeframes were similar to those at one week. CONCLUSION: Among privately insured US adults, the overall risk of CeAD is very low. Prior receipt of CSM was more likely than E&M among VAD patients as compared to stroke patients. However, for CAD patients as compared to stroke patients, as well as for both VAD and CAD patients in comparison with population controls and in case-crossover analysis, prior receipt of E&M was more likely than CSM.

Clip Closure Does Not Reduce Risk of Bleeding After Resection of Large Serrated Polyps: Results From a Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Serrated polyps are important colorectal cancer precursors and are most commonly located in the proximal colon, where post-polypectomy bleeding rates are higher. There is limited clinical trial evidence to guide best practices for resection of large serrated polyps (LSPs). METHODS: In a multicenter trial, patients with large (≥20 mm) non-pedunculated polyps undergoing endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) were randomized to clipping of the resection base or no clipping. This analysis is stratified by histologic subtype of study polyp(s), categorized as serrated [sessile serrated lesions (SSLs) or hyperplastic polyps (HPs)] or adenomatous, comparing clip vs control groups. The primary outcome was severe post-procedure bleeding within 30 days of colonoscopy. RESULTS: A total of 179 participants with 199 LSPs (191 SSLs and 8 HPs) and 730 participants with 771 adenomatous polyps were included in the study. Overall, 5 patients with LSPs (2.8%) experienced post-procedure bleeding compared with 42 (5.8%) of those with adenomas. There was no difference in post-procedure bleeding rates between patients in the clip vs control group among those with LSPs (2.3% vs 3.3%, respectively, difference 1.0%; P = NS). However, among those with adenomatous polyps, clipping was associated with a lower risk of post-procedure bleeding (3.9% vs 7.6%, difference 3.7%; P = .03) and overall serious adverse events (5.5% vs 10.6%, difference 5.1%; P = .01). CONCLUSION: The post-procedure bleeding risk for LSPs removed via EMR is low, and there is no discernable benefit of prophylactic clipping of the resection base in this group. This study indicates that the benefit of endoscopic clipping following EMR may be specific for >2 cm adenomatous polyps located in the proximal colon. CLINICALTRIALS: gov, Number: NCT01936948.

Clinically significant serrated polyp detection rates and risk for postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer: data from the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Higher adenoma detection rates reduce the risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC). Clinically significant serrated polyps (CSSPs; defined as any sessile serrated polyp, traditional serrated adenoma, large [≥1 cm] or proximal hyperplastic polyp >5 mm) also lead to PCCRC, but there are no data on associated CSSP detection rates (CSSDRs). We used data from the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry (NHCR) to investigate the association between PCCRC risk and endoscopist CSSDR. METHODS: We included NHCR patients with 1 or more follow-up events: either a colonoscopy or a colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis identified through linkage with the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry. We defined our outcome, PCCRC, in 3 time periods: CRC diagnosed 6 to 36 months, 6 to 60 months, or all examinations (6 months or longer) after an index examination. We excluded patients with CRC diagnosed at or within 6 months of the index examination, with incomplete examinations, or with inflammatory bowel disease. The exposure variable was endoscopist CSSDR at the index colonoscopy. Cox regression was used to model the hazard of PCCRC on CSSDR controlling for age, sex, index findings, year of examination, personal history of colorectal neoplasia, and having more than 1 surveillance examination. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-eight patients with CRC diagnosed at least 6 months after their index examination were included. Our cohort included 142 endoscopists (92 gastroenterologists). We observed that the risk for PCCRC 6 months or longer after the index examination was significantly lower for examinations performed by endoscopists with CSSDRs of 3% to <9% (hazard ratio [HR], .57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .39-.83) or 9% or higher (HR, .39; 95% CI, .20-.78) relative to those with CSSDRs under 3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to demonstrate a lower PCCRC risk after examinations performed by endoscopists with higher CSSDRs. Both CSSDRs of 9% and 3% to <9% had statistically lower risk of PCCRC than CSSDRs of <3%. These data validate CSSDR as a clinically relevant quality measure for endoscopists.

Association between cervical artery dissection and spinal manipulative therapy -a medicare claims analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical artery dissection and subsequent ischemic stroke is the most serious safety concern associated with cervical spinal manipulation. METHODS: We evaluated the association between cervical spinal manipulation and cervical artery dissection among older Medicare beneficiaries in the United States. We employed case-control and case-crossover designs in the analysis of claims data for individuals aged 65+, continuously enrolled in Medicare Part A (covering hospitalizations) and Part B (covering outpatient encounters) for at least two consecutive years during 2007-2015. The primary exposure was cervical spinal manipulation; the secondary exposure was a clinical encounter for evaluation and management for neck pain or headache. We created a 3-level categorical variable, (1) any cervical spinal manipulation, 2) evaluation and management but no cervical spinal manipulation and (3) neither cervical spinal manipulation nor evaluation and management. The primary outcomes were occurrence of cervical artery dissection, either (1) vertebral artery dissection or (2) carotid artery dissection. The cases had a new primary diagnosis on at least one inpatient hospital claim or primary/secondary diagnosis for outpatient claims on at least two separate days. Cases were compared to 3 different control groups: (1) matched population controls having at least one claim in the same year as the case; (2) ischemic stroke controls without cervical artery dissection; and (3) case-crossover analysis comparing cases to themselves in the time period 6-7 months prior to their cervical artery dissection. We made each comparison across three different time frames: up to (1) 7 days; (2) 14 days; and (3) 30 days prior to index event. RESULTS: The odds of cervical spinal manipulation versus evaluation and management did not significantly differ between vertebral artery dissection cases and any of the control groups at any of the timepoints (ORs 0.84 to 1.88; p > 0.05). Results for carotid artery dissection cases were similar. CONCLUSION: Among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who received cervical spinal manipulation, the risk of cervical artery dissection is no greater than that among control groups.

Quantifying differences in packaged food and drink purchases among households with diet-related cardiometabolic multi-morbidity: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diet is important for chronic disease management, with limited research understanding dietary choices among those with multi-morbidity, the state of having 2 or more chronic conditions. The objective of this study was to identify associations between packaged food and drink purchases and diet-related cardiometabolic multi-morbidity (DRCMM). METHODS: Cross-sectional associations between packaged food and drink purchases and household DRCMM were investigated using a national sample of U.S. households participating in a research marketing study. DRCMM households were defined as household head(s) self-reporting 2 or more diet-related chronic conditions. Separate multivariable logistic regression models were used to model the associations between household DRCMM status and total servings of, and total calories and nutrients from, packaged food and drinks purchased per month, as well as the nutrient density (protein, carbohydrates, and fat per serving) of packaged food and drinks purchased per month, adjusted for household size. RESULTS: Among eligible households, 3795 (16.8%) had DRCMM. On average, households with DRCMM versus without purchased 14.8 more servings per capita, per month, from packaged foods and drinks (p < 0.001). DRCMM households were 1.01 times more likely to purchase fat and carbohydrates in lieu of protein across all packaged food and drinks (p = 0.002, p = 0.000, respectively). DRCMM households averaged fewer grams per serving of protein, carbohydrates, and fat per month across all food and drink purchases (all p < 0.001). When carbonated soft drinks and juices were excluded, the same associations for grams of protein and carbohydrates per serving per month were seen (both p < 0.001) but the association for grams of fat per serving per month attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: DRCMM households purchased greater quantities of packaged food and drinks per capita than non-DRCMM households, which contributed to more fat, carbohydrates, and sodium in the home. However, food and drinks in DRCMM homes on average were lower in nutrient-density. Future studies are needed to understand the motivations for packaged food and drink choices among households with DRCMM to inform interventions targeting the home food environment.

Can diverse population characteristics be leveraged in a machine learning pipeline to predict resource intensive healthcare utilization among hospital service areas?

BACKGROUND: Super-utilizers represent approximately 5% of the population in the United States (U.S.) and yet they are responsible for over 50% of healthcare expenditures. Using characteristics of hospital service areas (HSAs) to predict utilization of resource intensive healthcare (RIHC) may offer a novel and actionable tool for identifying super-utilizer segments in the population. Consumer expenditures may offer additional value in predicting RIHC beyond typical population characteristics alone. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 2017 was extracted from 5 unique sources. The outcome was RIHC and included emergency room (ER) visits, inpatient days, and hospital expenditures, all expressed as log per capita. Candidate predictors from 4 broad groups were used, including demographics, adults and child health characteristics, community characteristics, and consumer expenditures. Candidate predictors were expressed as per capita or per capita percent and were aggregated from zip-codes to HSAs using weighed means. Machine learning approaches (Random Forrest, LASSO) selected important features from nearly 1,000 available candidate predictors and used them to generate 4 distinct models, including non-regularized and LASSO regression, random forest, and gradient boosting. Candidate predictors from the best performing models, for each outcome, were used as independent variables in multiple linear regression models. Relative contribution of variables from each candidate predictor group to regression model fit were calculated. RESULTS: The median ER visits per capita was 0.482 [IQR:0.351-0.646], the median inpatient days per capita was 0.395 [IQR:0.214-0.806], and the median hospital expenditures per capita was $2,302 [1$,544.70-$3,469.80]. Using 1,106 variables, the test-set coefficient of determination (R2) from the best performing models ranged between 0.184-0.782. The adjusted R2 values from multiple linear regression models ranged from 0.311-0.8293. Relative contribution of consumer expenditures to model fit ranged from 23.4-33.6%. DISCUSSION: Machine learning models predicted RIHC among HSAs using diverse population data, including novel consumer expenditures and provides an innovative tool to predict population-based healthcare utilization and expenditures. Geographic variation in utilization and spending were identified.

Recurrence of Colorectal Neoplastic Polyps After Incomplete Resection.

BACKGROUND: Incomplete resection of neoplastic polyps is considered an important reason for the development of colorectal cancer. However, there are no data on the natural history of polyps that were incompletely removed. OBJECTIVE: To examine the risk for metachronous neoplasia during surveillance colonoscopy after documented incomplete polyp resection. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients who participated in the CARE (Complete Adenoma REsection) study (2009 to 2012). SETTING: 2 academic medical centers. PATIENTS: Patients who had resection of a 5- to 20-mm neoplastic polyp, had a documented complete or incomplete resection, and had a surveillance examination. MEASUREMENTS: Segment metachronous neoplasia, defined as the proportion of colon segments with at least 1 neoplastic polyp at first surveillance examination, was measured. Segment metachronous neoplasia was compared between segments with a prior incomplete polyp resection (incomplete segments) and those with a prior complete resection (complete segments), accounting for clustering of segments within patients. RESULTS: Of 233 participants in the original study, 166 (71%) had at least 1 surveillance examination. Median time to surveillance was shorter after incomplete versus complete resection (median, 17 vs. 45 months). The risk for any metachronous neoplasia was greater in segments with incomplete versus complete resection (52% vs. 23%; risk difference [RD], 28% [95% CI, 9% to 47%]; P = 0.004). Incomplete segments also had a greater number of neoplastic polyps (mean, 0.8 vs. 0.3; RD, 0.50 [CI, 0.1 to 0.9]; P = 0.008) and greater risk for advanced neoplasia (18% vs. 3%; RD, 15% [CI, 1% to 29%]; P = 0.034). Incomplete resection was the strongest independent factor associated with metachronous neoplasia (odds ratio, 3.0 [CI, 1.12 to 8.17]). LIMITATION: Potential patient selection bias due to incomplete follow-up. CONCLUSION: This natural history study found a statistically significantly greater risk for future neoplasia and advanced neoplasia in colon segments after incomplete resection compared with segments with complete resection. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Effects of Blended (Yellow) vs Forced Coagulation (Blue) Currents on Adverse Events, Complete Resection, or Polyp Recurrence After Polypectomy in a Large Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is debate over the type of electrosurgical setting that should be used for polyp resection. Some endoscopists use a type of blended current (yellow), whereas others prefer coagulation (blue). We performed a single-blinded, randomized trial to determine whether type of electrosurgical setting affects risk of adverse events or recurrence. METHODS: Patients undergoing endoscopic mucosal resection of nonpedunculated colorectal polyps 20 mm or larger (n = 928) were randomly assigned, in a 2 × 2 design, to groups that received clip closure or no clip closure of the resection defect (primary intervention) and then to either a blended current (Endocut Q) or coagulation current (forced coagulation) (Erbe Inc) (secondary intervention and focus of the study). The study was performed at multiple centers, from April 2013 through October 2017. Patients were evaluated 30 days after the procedure (n = 919), and 675 patients underwent a surveillance colonoscopy at a median of 6 months after the procedure. The primary outcome was any severe adverse event in a per patient analysis. Secondary outcomes were complete resection and recurrence at first surveillance colonoscopy in a per polyp analysis. RESULTS: Serious adverse events occurred in 7.2% of patients in the Endocut group and 7.9% of patients in the forced coagulation group, with no significant differences in the occurrence of types of events. There were no significant differences between groups in proportions of polyps that were completely removed (96% in the Endocut group vs 95% in the forced coagulation group) or the proportion of polyps found to have recurred at surveillance colonoscopy (17% and 17%, respectively). Procedural characteristics were comparable, except that 17% of patients in the Endocut group had immediate bleeding that required an intervention, compared with 11% in the forced coagulation group (P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized trial to compare 2 commonly used electrosurgical settings for the resection of large colorectal polyps (Endocut vs forced coagulation), we found no difference in risk of serious adverse events, complete resection rate, or polyp recurrence. Electrosurgical settings can therefore be selected based on endoscopist expertise and preference. Clinicaltrials.gov ID NCT01936948.

Fat-enlarged axillary lymph nodes are associated with node-positive breast cancer in obese patients.

PURPOSE: Obesity associated fat infiltration of organ systems is accompanied by organ dysfunction and poor cancer outcomes. Obese women demonstrate variable degrees of fat infiltration of axillary lymph nodes (LNs), and they are at increased risk for node-positive breast cancer. However, the relationship between enlarged axillary nodes and axillary metastases has not been investigated. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between axillary metastases and fat-enlarged axillary nodes visualized on mammograms and breast MRI in obese women with a diagnosis of invasive breast cancer. METHODS: This retrospective case-control study included 431 patients with histologically confirmed invasive breast cancer. The primary analysis of this study included 306 patients with pre-treatment and pre-operative breast MRI and body mass index (BMI) > 30 (201 node-positive cases and 105 randomly selected node-negative controls) diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between April 1, 2011, and March 1, 2020. The largest visible LN was measured in the axilla contralateral to the known breast cancer on breast MRI. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the association between node-positive status and LN size adjusting for age, BMI, tumor size, tumor grade, tumor subtype, and lymphovascular invasion. RESULTS: A strong likelihood of node-positive breast cancer was observed among obese women with fat-expanded lymph nodes (adjusted OR for the 4th vs. 1st quartile for contralateral LN size on MRI: 9.70; 95% CI 4.26, 23.50; p < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve for size of fat-enlarged nodes in the contralateral axilla identified on breast MRI had an area under the curve of 0.72 for predicting axillary metastasis, and this increased to 0.77 when combined with patient and tumor characteristics. CONCLUSION: Fat expansion of axillary lymph nodes was associated with a high likelihood of axillary metastases in obese women with invasive breast cancer independent of BMI and tumor characteristics.

Factors correlated with intracranial interictal epileptiform discharges in refractory epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to evaluate the influence that subject-specific factors have on intracranial interictal epileptiform discharge (IED) rates in persons with refractory epilepsy. METHODS: One hundred fifty subjects with intracranial electrodes performed multiple sessions of a free recall memory task; this standardized task controlled for subject attention levels. We utilized a dominance analysis to rank the importance of subject-specific factors based on their relative influence on IED rates. Linear mixed-effects models were employed to comprehensively examine factors with highly ranked importance. RESULTS: Antiseizure medication (ASM) status, time of testing, and seizure onset zone (SOZ) location were the highest-ranking factors in terms of their impact on IED rates. The average IED rate of electrodes in SOZs was 34% higher than the average IED rate of electrodes outside of SOZs (non-SOZ; p < .001). However, non-SOZ electrodes had similar IED rates regardless of the subject's SOZ location (p = .99). Subjects on older generation (p < .001) and combined generation (p < .001) ASM regimens had significantly lower IED rates relative to the group taking no ASMs; newer generation ASM regimens demonstrated a nonsignificant association with IED rates (p = .13). Of the ASMs included in this study, the following ASMs were associated with significant reductions in IED rates: levetiracetam (p < .001), carbamazepine (p < .001), lacosamide (p = .03), zonisamide (p = .01), lamotrigine (p = .03), phenytoin (p = .03), and topiramate (p = .01). We observed a nonsignificant association between time of testing and IED rates (morning-afternoon p = .15, morning-evening p = .85, afternoon-evening p = .26). SIGNIFICANCE: The current study ranks the relative influence that subject-specific factors have on IED rates and highlights the importance of considering certain factors, such as SOZ location and ASM status, when analyzing IEDs for clinical or research purposes.

Factors associated with complete clip closure after endoscopic mucosal resection of large colorectal polyps.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM : Delayed bleeding is a common adverse event following endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) of large colorectal polyps. Prophylactic clip closure of the mucosal defect after EMR of nonpedunculated polyps larger than 20 mm reduces the incidence of severe delayed bleeding, especially in proximal polyps. This study aimed to evaluate factors associated with complete prophylactic clip closure of the mucosal defect after EMR of large polyps. METHODS : This is a post hoc analysis of the CLIP study (NCT01936948). All patients randomized to the clip group were included. Main outcome was complete clip closure of the mucosal resection defect. The defect was considered completely closed when no remaining mucosal defect was visible and clips were less than 1 cm apart. Factors associated with complete closure were evaluated in multivariable analysis. RESULTS : In total, 458 patients (age 65, 58 % men) with 494 large polyps were included. Complete clip closure of the resection defect was achieved for 338 polyps (68.4 %); closure was not complete for 156 (31.6 %). Factors associated with complete closure in adjusted analysis were smaller polyp size (odds ratio 1.06 for every millimeter decrease [95 % confidence interval 1.02-1.08]), good access (OR 3.58 [1.94-9.59]), complete submucosal lifting (OR 2.28 [1.36-3.90]), en bloc resection (OR 5.75 [1.48-22.39]), and serrated histology (OR 2.74 [1.35-5.56]). CONCLUSIONS : Complete clip closure was not achieved for almost one in three resected large nonpedunculated polyps. While stable access and en bloc resection facilitate clip closure, most factors associated with clip closure are not modifiable. This highlights the need for alternative closure options and measures to prevent bleeding.

Time dependent hazard ratio estimation using instrumental variables without conditioning on an omitted covariate.

BACKGROUND: Estimation that employs instrumental variables (IV) can reduce or eliminate bias due to confounding. In observational studies, instruments result from natural experiments such as the effect of clinician preference or geographic distance on treatment selection. In randomized studies the randomization indicator is typically a valid instrument, especially if the study is blinded, e.g. no placebo effect. Estimation via instruments is a highly developed field for linear models but the use of instruments in time-to-event analysis is far from established. Various IV-based estimators of the hazard ratio (HR) from Cox's regression models have been proposed. METHODS: We extend IV based estimation of Cox's model beyond proportionality of hazards, and address estimation of a log-linear time dependent hazard ratio and a piecewise constant HR. We estimate the marginal time-dependent hazard ratio unlike other approaches that estimate the hazard ratio conditional on the omitted covariates. We use estimating equations motivated by Martingale representations that resemble the partial likelihood score statistic. We conducted simulations that include the use of copulas to generate potential times-to-event that have a given marginal structural time dependent hazard ratio but are dependent on omitted covariates. We compare our approach to the partial likelihood estimator, and two other IV based approaches. We apply it to estimation of the time dependent hazard ratio for two vascular interventions. RESULTS: The method performs well in simulations of a stepwise time-dependent hazard ratio, but illustrates some bias that increases as the hazard ratio moves away from unity (the value that typically underlies the null hypothesis). It compares well to other approaches when the hazard ratio is stepwise constant. It also performs well for estimation of a log-linear hazard ratio where no other instrumental variable approaches exist. CONCLUSION: The estimating equations we propose for estimating a time-dependent hazard ratio using an IV perform well in simulations. We encourage the use of our procedure for time-dependent hazard ratio estimation when unmeasured confounding is a concern and a suitable instrumental variable exists.

Feasibility and acceptability of a technology-based, rural weight management intervention in older adults with obesity.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with obesity residing in rural areas have reduced access to weight management programs. We determined the feasibility, acceptability and preliminary outcomes of an integrated technology-based health promotion intervention in rural-living, older adults using remote monitoring and synchronous video-based technology. METHODS: A 6-month, non-randomized, non-blinded, single-arm study was conducted from October 2018 to May 2020 at a community-based aging center of adults aged ≥65 years with a body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2. Weekly dietitian visits focusing on behavior therapy and caloric restriction and twice-weekly physical therapist-led group strength, flexibility and balance training classes were delivered using video-conferencing to participants in their homes. Participants used a Fitbit Alta HR for remote monitoring with data feedback provided by the interventionists. An aerobic activity prescription was provided and monitored. RESULTS: Mean age was 72.9±3.9 years (82% female). Baseline anthropometric measures of weight, BMI, and waist circumference were 97.8±16.3 kg, 36.5±5.2 kg/m2, and 115.5±13.0 cm, respectively. A total of 142 participants were screened (n=27 ineligible), and 53 consented. There were nine dropouts (17%). Overall satisfaction with the trial (4.7+ 0.6, scale: 1 (low) to 5 (high)) and with Fitbit (4.2+ 0.9) were high. Fitbit was worn an average of 81.7±19.3% of intervention days. In completers, mean weight loss was 4.6±3.5 kg or 4.7±3.5% (p< 0.001). Physical function measures of 30-s sit-to-stand repetitions increased from 13.5±5.7 to 16.7±5.9 (p< 0.001), 6-min walk improved by 42.0±77.3 m (p=0.005) but no differences were observed in gait speed or grip strength. Subjective measures of late-life function improved (3.4±4.7 points, p< 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A technology-based obesity intervention is feasible and acceptable to older adults with obesity and may lead to weight loss and improved physical function. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered on Clinicaltrials.gov # NCT03104205 . Registered on April 7, 2017. First participant enrolled on October 1st, 2018.