Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms.

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms--such as corals and some plankton--will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean-carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

Late glacial initiation of Holocene eastern Mediterranean sapropel formation.

Recurrent deposition of organic-rich sediment layers (sapropels) in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is caused by complex interactions between climatic and biogeochemical processes. Disentangling these influences is therefore important for Mediterranean palaeo-studies in particular, and for understanding ocean feedback processes in general. Crucially, sapropels are diagnostic of anoxic deep-water phases, which have been attributed to deep-water stagnation, enhanced biological production or both. Here we use an ocean-biogeochemical model to test the effects of commonly proposed climatic and biogeochemical causes for sapropel S1. Our results indicate that deep-water anoxia requires a long prelude of deep-water stagnation, with no particularly strong eutrophication. The model-derived time frame agrees with foraminiferal δ(13)C records that imply cessation of deep-water renewal from at least Heinrich event 1 to the early Holocene. The simulated low particulate organic carbon burial flux agrees with pre-sapropel reconstructions. Our results offer a mechanistic explanation of glacial-interglacial influence on sapropel formation.

Global environmental cycling of gamma-HCH and DDT in the 1980s--a study using a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, ECHAM5-MPIOM, was used to study the multicompartmental cycling and long-range transport of persistent and semivolatile organics. Multiphase systems in air and ocean are covered by submodels for atmospheric aerosols, HAM, and marine biogeochemistry, HAMOCC5, respectively. The model, furthermore, encompasses 2D surface compartments, i.e. top soil, vegetation surfaces and sea-ice. The total environmental fate of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH, lindane) and dichlorophenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in agriculture were studied. DDT is mostly present in the soils, the water-soluble gamma-HCH in soils and ocean. DDT has the longest residence time in almost all compartments. Quasi-steady state with regard to substance accumulation is reached within a few years in air and vegetation surfaces. In seawater the partitioning to suspended and sinking particles contributes to the vertical transport of substances. On the global scale deep water formation is, however, found to be more efficient. Up to 30% of DDT but only less than 0.2% of gamma-HCH in seawater are stored in particulate matter. On the time scale studied (1 decade) and on global scale substance transport in the environment is determined by the fast atmospheric circulation. The meridional transport mechanism, for both compounds, is significantly enhanced by multi-hopping. Net meridional transport in the ocean is effective only regionally, mostly by currents along the western boundaries of Africa and the Americas. The total environmental burdens of the substances experience a net northward migration from their source regions, which is more pronounced for DDT than for gamma-HCH. Due to the application distribution, however, after 10 years of simulation 21% of the global environmental burden of gamma-HCH and 12% of DDT have accumulated in the Arctic.