Exploring the Potential Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of AIDS Vaccine within a Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Response in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: The Investment Framework Enhanced (IFE) proposed in 2013 by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) explored how maximizing existing interventions and adding emerging prevention options, including a vaccine, could further reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This article describes additional modeling which looks more closely at the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of AIDS vaccination in LMICs as part of UNAIDS IFE. METHODS: An epidemiological model was used to explore the potential impact of AIDS vaccination in LMICs in combination with other interventions through 2070. Assumptions were based on perspectives from research, vaccination and public health experts, as well as observations from other HIV/AIDS interventions and vaccination programs. Sensitivity analyses varied vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, coverage, and cost. RESULTS: If UNAIDS IFE goals were fully achieved, new annual HIV infections in LMICs would decline from 2.0 million in 2014 to 550,000 in 2070. A 70% efficacious vaccine introduced in 2027 with three doses, strong uptake and five years of protection would reduce annual new infections by 44% over the first decade, by 65% the first 25 years and by 78% to 122,000 in 2070. Vaccine impact would be much greater if the assumptions in UNAIDS IFE were not fully achieved. An AIDS vaccine would be cost-effective within a wide range of scenarios. INTERPRETATION: Even a modestly effective vaccine could contribute strongly to a sustainable response to HIV/AIDS and be cost-effective, even with optimistic assumptions about other interventions. Higher efficacy would provide even greater impact and cost-effectiveness, and would support broader access. Vaccine efficacy and cost per regimen are critical in achieving cost-effectiveness, with cost per regimen being particularly critical in low-income countries and at lower efficacy levels.

Accelerating the development of a safe and effective HIV vaccine: HIV vaccine case study for the Decade of Vaccines.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the etiologic agent that causes AIDS, is the fourth largest killer in the world today. Despite the remarkable achievements in development of anti-retroviral therapies against HIV, and the recent advances in new prevention technologies, the rate of new HIV infections continue to outpace efforts on HIV prevention and control. Thus, the development of a safe and effective vaccine for prevention and control of AIDS remains a global public health priority and the greatest opportunity to eventually end the AIDS pandemic. Currently, there is a renaissance in HIV vaccine development, due in large part to the first demonstration of vaccine induced protection, albeit modest, in human efficacy trials, a generation of improved vaccine candidates advancing in the clinical pipeline, and newly defined targets on HIV for broadly neutralizing antibodies. The main barriers to HIV vaccine development include the global variability of HIV, lack of a validated animal model, lack of correlates of protective immunity, lack of natural protective immune responses against HIV, and the reservoir of infected cells conferred by integration of HIV's genome into the host. Some of these barriers are not unique to HIV, but generic to other variable viral pathogens such as hepatitis C and pandemic influenza. Recommendations to overcome these barriers are presented in this document, including but not limited to expansion of efforts to design immunogens capable of eliciting broadly neutralizing antibodies against HIV, expansion of clinical research capabilities to assess multiple immunogens concurrently with comprehensive immune monitoring, increased support for translational vaccine research, and engaging industry as full partners in vaccine discovery and development.