Developing machine learning models to predict primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the first 30 days after lung transplantation. Risk factors for the development of PGD include donor and recipient characteristics, but how multiple variables interact to impact the development of PGD and how clinicians should consider these in making decisions about donor acceptance remain unclear. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study to develop and evaluate machine learning pipelines to predict the development of PGD grade 3 within the first 72 hours of transplantation using donor and recipient variables that are known at the time of donor offer acceptance. Among 576 bilateral lung recipients, 173 (30%) developed PGD grade 3. The cohort underwent a 75% to 25% train-test split, and lasso regression was used to identify 11 variables for model development. A K-nearest neighbor's model showing the best calibration and performance with relatively small confidence intervals was selected as the final predictive model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.65. Machine learning models can predict the risk for development of PGD grade 3 based on data available at the time of donor offer acceptance. This may improve donor-recipient matching and donor utilization in the future.

A Pragmatic Machine Learning Model To Predict Carbapenem Resistance.

Infection caused by carbapenem-resistant (CR) organisms is a rising problem in the United States. While the risk factors for antibiotic resistance are well known, there remains a large need for the early identification of antibiotic-resistant infections. Using machine learning (ML), we sought to develop a prediction model for carbapenem resistance. All patients >18 years of age admitted to a tertiary-care academic medical center between 1 January 2012 and 10 October 2017 with ≥1 bacterial culture were eligible for inclusion. All demographic, medication, vital sign, procedure, laboratory, and culture/sensitivity data were extracted from the electronic health record. Organisms were considered CR if a single isolate was reported as intermediate or resistant. Patients with CR and non-CR organisms were temporally matched to maintain the positive/negative case ratio. Extreme gradient boosting was used for model development. In total, 68,472 patients met inclusion criteria, with 1,088 patients identified as having CR organisms. Sixty-seven features were used for predictive modeling. The most important features were number of prior antibiotic days, recent central venous catheter placement, and inpatient surgery. After model training, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.846. The sensitivity of the model was 30%, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 30% and a negative predictive value of 99%. Using readily available clinical data, we were able to create a ML model capable of predicting CR infections at the time of culture collection with a high PPV.

Comparison of Sepsis Definitions as Automated Criteria.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the impact of heterogeneity among established sepsis criteria (Sepsis-1, Sepsis-3, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event, and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid severe sepsis core measure 1) through the comparison of corresponding sepsis cohorts. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data extracted from electronic health record. SETTING: Single, tertiary-care center in St. Louis, MO. PATIENTS: Adult, nonsurgical inpatients admitted between January 1, 2012, and January 6, 2018. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the electronic health record data, 286,759 encounters met inclusion criteria across the study period. Application of established sepsis criteria yielded cohorts varying in prevalence: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event (4.4%), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid severe sepsis core measure 1 (4.8%), International Classification of Disease code (7.2%), Sepsis-3 (7.5%), and Sepsis-1 (11.3%). Between the two modern established criteria, Sepsis-3 (n = 21,550) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event (n = 12,494), the size of the overlap was 7,763. The sepsis cohorts also varied in time from admission to sepsis onset (hr): Sepsis-1 (2.9), Sepsis-3 (4.1), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event (4.6), and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid severe sepsis core measure 1 (7.6); sepsis discharge International Classification of Disease code rate: Sepsis-1 (37.4%), Sepsis-3 (40.1%), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid severe sepsis core measure 1 (48.5%), and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event (54.5%); and inhospital mortality rate: Sepsis-1 (13.6%), Sepsis-3 (18.8%), International Classification of Disease code (20.4%), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid severe sepsis core measure 1 (22.5%), and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event (24.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The application of commonly used sepsis definitions on a single population produced sepsis cohorts with low agreement, significantly different baseline demographics, and clinical outcomes.

Timing of antibiotic therapy in the ICU.

Severe or life threatening infections are common among patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Most infections in the ICU are bacterial or fungal in origin and require antimicrobial therapy for clinical resolution. Antibiotics are the cornerstone of therapy for infected critically ill patients. However, antibiotics are often not optimally administered resulting in less favorable patient outcomes including greater mortality. The timing of antibiotics in patients with life threatening infections including sepsis and septic shock is now recognized as one of the most important determinants of survival for this population. Individuals who have a delay in the administration of antibiotic therapy for serious infections can have a doubling or more in their mortality. Additionally, the timing of an appropriate antibiotic regimen, one that is active against the offending pathogens based on in vitro susceptibility, also influences survival. Thus not only is early empiric antibiotic administration important but the selection of those agents is crucial as well. The duration of antibiotic infusions, especially for ß-lactams, can also influence antibiotic efficacy by increasing antimicrobial drug exposure for the offending pathogen. However, due to mounting antibiotic resistance, aggressive antimicrobial de-escalation based on microbiology results is necessary to counterbalance the pressures of early broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. In this review, we examine time related variables impacting antibiotic optimization as it relates to the treatment of life threatening infections in the ICU. In addition to highlighting the importance of antibiotic timing in the ICU we hope to provide an approach to antimicrobials that also minimizes the unnecessary use of these agents. Such approaches will increasingly be linked to advances in molecular microbiology testing and artificial intelligence/machine learning. Such advances should help identify patients needing empiric antibiotic therapy at an earlier time point as well as the specific antibiotics required in order to avoid unnecessary administration of broad-spectrum antibiotics.

Computational analysis to repurpose drugs for COVID-19 based on transcriptional response of host cells to SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has infected over 10 million people globally with a relatively high mortality rate. There are many therapeutics undergoing clinical trials, but there is no effective vaccine or therapy for treatment thus far. After affected by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), molecular signaling pathways of host cells play critical roles during the life cycle of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, it is significant to identify the involved molecular signaling pathways within the host cells. Drugs targeting these molecular signaling pathways could be potentially effective for COVID-19 treatment. METHODS: In this study, we developed a novel integrative analysis approach to identify the related molecular signaling pathways within host cells, and repurposed drugs as potentially effective treatments for COVID-19, based on the transcriptional response of host cells. RESULTS: We identified activated signaling pathways associated with the infection caused SARS-CoV-2 in human lung epithelial cells through integrative analysis. Then, the activated gene ontologies (GOs) and super GOs were identified. Signaling pathways and GOs such as MAPK, JNK, STAT, ERK, JAK-STAT, IRF7-NFkB signaling, and MYD88/CXCR6 immune signaling were particularly activated. Based on the identified signaling pathways and GOs, a set of potentially effective drugs were repurposed by integrating the drug-target and reverse gene expression data resources. In addition to many drugs being evaluated in clinical trials, the dexamethasone was top-ranked in the prediction, which was the first reported drug to be able to significantly reduce the death rate of COVID-19 patients receiving respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: The integrative genomics data analysis and results can be helpful to understand the associated molecular signaling pathways within host cells, and facilitate the discovery of effective drugs for COVID-19 treatment.

Artificial Intelligence in Otology and Neurotology.

Clinical applications of artificial intelligence (AI) have grown exponentially with increasing computational power and Big Data. Data rich fields such as Otology and Neurotology are still in the infancy of harnessing the power of AI but are increasingly involved in training and developing ways to incorporate AI into patient care. Current studies involving AI are focused on accessible datasets; health care wearables, tabular data from electronic medical records, electrophysiologic measurements, imaging, and "omics" provide huge amounts of data to utilize. Health care wearables, such as hearing aids and cochlear implants, are a ripe environment for AI implementation.

Development and validation of primary graft dysfunction predictive algorithm for lung transplant candidates.

BACKGROUND: Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of early morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation. Accurate prediction of PGD risk could inform donor approaches and perioperative care planning. We sought to develop a clinically useful, generalizable PGD prediction model to aid in transplant decision-making. METHODS: We derived a predictive model in a prospective cohort study of subjects from 2012 to 2018, followed by a single-center external validation. We used regularized (lasso) logistic regression to evaluate the predictive ability of clinically available PGD predictors and developed a user interface for clinical application. Using decision curve analysis, we quantified the net benefit of the model across a range of PGD risk thresholds and assessed model calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: The PGD predictive model included distance from donor hospital to recipient transplant center, recipient age, predicted total lung capacity, lung allocation score (LAS), body mass index, pulmonary artery mean pressure, sex, and indication for transplant; donor age, sex, mechanism of death, and donor smoking status; and interaction terms for LAS and donor distance. The interface allows for real-time assessment of PGD risk for any donor/recipient combination. The model offers decision-making net benefit in the PGD risk range of 10% to 75% in the derivation centers and 2% to 10% in the validation cohort, a range incorporating the incidence in that cohort. CONCLUSION: We developed a clinically useful PGD predictive algorithm across a range of PGD risk thresholds to support transplant decision-making, posttransplant care, and enrich samples for PGD treatment trials.

Imputation of missing values for cochlear implant candidate audiometric data and potential applications.

OBJECTIVE: Assess the real-world performance of popular imputation algorithms on cochlear implant (CI) candidate audiometric data. METHODS: 7,451 audiograms from patients undergoing CI candidacy evaluation were pooled from 32 institutions with complete case analysis yielding 1,304 audiograms. Imputation model performance was assessed with nested cross-validation on randomly generated sparse datasets with various amounts of missing data, distributions of sparsity, and dataset sizes. A threshold for safe imputation was defined as root mean square error (RMSE) <10dB. Models included univariate imputation, interpolation, multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), k-nearest neighbors, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks. RESULTS: Greater quantities of missing data were associated with worse performance. Sparsity in audiometric data is not uniformly distributed, as inter-octave frequencies are less commonly tested. With 3-8 missing features per instance, a real-world sparsity distribution was associated with significantly better performance compared to other sparsity distributions (Δ RMSE 0.3 dB- 5.8 dB, non-overlapping 99% confidence intervals). With a real-world sparsity distribution, models were able to safely impute up to 6 missing datapoints in an 11-frequency audiogram. MICE consistently outperformed other models across all metrics and sparsity distributions (p < 0.01, Wilcoxon rank sum test). With sparsity capped at 6 missing features per audiogram but otherwise equivalent to the raw dataset, MICE imputed with RMSE of 7.83 dB [95% CI 7.81-7.86]. Imputing up to 6 missing features captures 99.3% of the audiograms in our dataset, allowing for a 5.7-fold increase in dataset size (1,304 to 7,399 audiograms) as compared with complete case analysis. CONCLUSION: Precision medicine will inevitably play an integral role in the future of hearing healthcare. These methods are data dependent, and rigorously validated imputation models are a key tool for maximizing datasets. Using the largest CI audiogram dataset to-date, we demonstrate that in a real-world scenario MICE can safely impute missing data for the vast majority (>99%) of audiograms with RMSE well below a clinically significant threshold of 10dB. Evaluation across a range of dataset sizes and sparsity distributions suggests a high degree of generalizability to future applications.

Responsible Imputation of Missing Speech Perception Testing Data & Analysis of 4,739 Observations and Predictors of Performance.

OBJECTIVE: To address outcome heterogeneity in cochlear implant (CI) research, we built imputation models using multiple imputation by chained equations (MICEs) and K-nearest neighbors (KNNs) to convert between four common open-set testing scenarios: Consonant-Nucleus-Consonant word (CNCw), Arizona Biomedical (AzBio) in quiet, AzBio +5, and AzBio +10. We then analyzed raw and imputed data sets to evaluate factors affecting CI outcome variability. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of a national CI database (HERMES) and a nonoverlapping single-institution CI database. SETTING: Multi-institutional (32 CI centers). PATIENTS: Adult CI recipients (n = 4,046 patients). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean absolute error (MAE) between imputed and observed speech perception scores. RESULTS: Imputation models of preoperative speech perception measures demonstrate a MAE of less than 10% for feature triplets of CNCw/AzBio in quiet/AzBio +10 (MICE: MAE, 9.52%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.40-9.64; KNN: MAE, 8.93%; 95% CI, 8.83-9.03) and AzBio in quiet/AzBio +5/AzBio +10 (MICE: MAE, 8.85%; 95% CI, 8.68-9.02; KNN: MAE, 8.95%; 95% CI, 8.74-9.16) with one feature missing. Postoperative imputation can be safely performed with up to four of six features missing in a set of CNCw and AzBio in quiet at 3, 6, and 12 months postcochlear implantation using MICE (MAE, 9.69%; 95% CI, 9.63-9.76). For multivariable analysis of CI performance prediction, imputation increased sample size by 72%, from 2,756 to 4,739, with marginal change in adjusted R2 (0.13 raw, 0.14 imputed). CONCLUSIONS: Missing data across certain sets of common speech perception tests may be safely imputed, enabling multivariate analysis of one of the largest CI outcomes data sets to date.

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: A time-series analysis.

Objective: To use interrupted time-series analyses to investigate the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). We hypothesized that the pandemic would be associated with higher rates of HAIs after adjustment for confounders. Design: We conducted a cross-sectional study of HAIs in 3 hospitals in Missouri from January 1, 2017, through August 31, 2020, using interrupted time-series analysis with 2 counterfactual scenarios. Setting: The study was conducted at 1 large quaternary-care referral hospital and 2 community hospitals. Participants: All adults ≥18 years of age hospitalized at a study hospital for ≥48 hours were included in the study. Results: In total, 254,792 admissions for ≥48 hours occurred during the study period. The average age of these patients was 57.6 (±19.0) years, and 141,107 (55.6%) were female. At hospital 1, 78 CLABSIs, 33 CAUTIs, and 88 VAEs were documented during the pandemic period. Hospital 2 had 13 CLABSIs, 6 CAUTIs, and 17 VAEs. Hospital 3 recorded 11 CLABSIs, 8 CAUTIs, and 11 VAEs. Point estimates for hypothetical excess HAIs suggested an increase in all infection types across facilities, except for CLABSIs and CAUTIs at hospital 1 under the "no pandemic" scenario. Conclusions: The COVID-19 era was associated with increases in CLABSIs, CAUTIs, and VAEs at 3 hospitals in Missouri, with variations in significance by hospital and infection type. Continued vigilance in maintaining optimal infection prevention practices to minimize HAIs is warranted.

Use of Inhaled Epoprostenol in Patients With COVID-19 Receiving Humidified, High-Flow Nasal Oxygen Is Associated With Progressive Respiratory Failure.

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefit of using inhaled epoprostenol (iEpo) through a humidified high-flow nasal cannula (HHFNC) remains unknown for patients with COVID-19. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can iEpo prevent respiratory deterioration for patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 findings receiving HHFNC? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort analysis included patients aged 18 years or older with COVID-19 pneumonia who required HHFNC treatment. Patients who received iEpo were propensity score matched to patients who did not receive iEpo. The primary outcome was time to mechanical ventilation or death without mechanical ventilation and was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard ratios. The effects of residual confounding were assessed using a multilevel analysis, and a secondary analysis adjusted for outcome propensity also was performed in a multivariable model that included the entire (unmatched) patient cohort. RESULTS: Among 954 patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 findings receiving HHFNC therapy, 133 patients (13.9%) received iEpo. After propensity score matching, the median number of days until the composite outcome was similar between treatment groups (iEpo: 5.0 days [interquartile range, 2.0-10.0 days] vs no-iEpo: 6.5 days [interquartile range, 2.0-11.0 days]; P = .26), but patients who received iEpo were more likely to meet the composite outcome in the propensity score-matched, multilevel, and multivariable unmatched analyses (hazard ratio, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.73-2.50]; OR, 4.72 [95% CI, 3.01-7.41]; and OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.23-1.49]; respectively). INTERPRETATION: In patients with COVID-19 receiving HHFNC therapy, use of iEpo was associated with the need for invasive mechanical ventilation.

Respiratory support status from EHR data for adult population: classification, heuristics, and usage in predictive modeling.

OBJECTIVE: Respiratory support status is critical in understanding patient status, but electronic health record data are often scattered, incomplete, and contradictory. Further, there has been limited work on standardizing representations for respiratory support. The objective of this work was to (1) propose a practical terminology system for respiratory support methods; (2) develop (meta-)heuristics for constructing respiratory support episodes; and (3) evaluate the utility of respiratory support information for mortality prediction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All analyses were performed using electronic health record data of COVID-19-tested, emergency department-admit, adult patients at a large, Midwestern healthcare system between March 1, 2020 and April 1, 2021. Logistic regression and XGBoost models were trained with and without respiratory support information, and performance metrics were compared. Importance of respiratory-support-based features was explored using absolute coefficient values for logistic regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations values for the XGBoost model. RESULTS: The proposed terminology system for respiratory support methods is as follows: Low-Flow Oxygen Therapy (LFOT), High-Flow Oxygen Therapy (HFOT), Non-Invasive Mechanical Ventilation (NIMV), Invasive Mechanical Ventilation (IMV), and ExtraCorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO). The addition of respiratory support information significantly improved mortality prediction (logistic regression area under receiver operating characteristic curve, median [IQR] from 0.855 [0.852-0.855] to 0.881 [0.876-0.884]; area under precision recall curve from 0.262 [0.245-0.268] to 0.319 [0.313-0.325], both P < 0.01). The proposed generalizable, interpretable, and episodic representation had commensurate performance compared to alternate representations despite loss of granularity. Respiratory support features were among the most important in both models. CONCLUSION: Respiratory support information is critical in understanding patient status and can facilitate downstream analyses.

OpenSep: a generalizable open source pipeline for SOFA score calculation and Sepsis-3 classification.

EHR-based sepsis research often uses heterogeneous definitions of sepsis leading to poor generalizability and difficulty in comparing studies to each other. We have developed OpenSep, an open-source pipeline for sepsis phenotyping according to the Sepsis-3 definition, as well as determination of time of sepsis onset and SOFA scores. The Minimal Sepsis Data Model was developed alongside the pipeline to enable the execution of the pipeline to diverse sources of electronic health record data. The pipeline's accuracy was validated by applying it to the MIMIC-IV version 1.0 data and comparing sepsis onset and SOFA scores to those produced by the pipeline developed by the curators of MIMIC. We demonstrated high reliability between both the sepsis onsets and SOFA scores, however the use of the Minimal Sepsis Data model developed for this work allows our pipeline to be applied to more broadly to data sources beyond MIMIC.

Estrogen hormone is an essential sex factor inhibiting inflammation and immune response in COVID-19.

Although vaccines have been evaluated and approved for SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention, there remains a lack of effective treatments to reduce the mortality of COVID-19 patients already infected with SARS-CoV-2. The global data on COVID-19 showed that men have a higher mortality rate than women. We further observed that the proportion of mortality of females increases starting from around the age of 55 significantly. Thus, sex is an essential factor associated with COVID-19 mortality, and sex related genetic factors could be interesting mechanisms and targets for COVID-19 treatment. However, the associated sex factors and signaling pathways remain unclear. Here, we propose to uncover the potential sex associated factors using systematic and integrative network analysis. The unique results indicated that estrogens, e.g., estrone and estriol, (1) interacting with ESR1/2 receptors, (2) can inhibit SARS-CoV-2 caused inflammation and immune response signaling in host cells; and (3) estrogens are associated with the distinct fatality rates between male and female COVID-19 patients. Specifically, a high level of estradiol protects young female COVID-19 patients, and estrogens drop to an extremely low level in females after about 55 years of age causing the increased fatality rate of women. In conclusion, estrogen, interacting with ESR1/2 receptors, is an essential sex factor that protects COVID-19 patients from death by inhibiting inflammation and immune response caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Moreover, medications boosting the down-stream signaling of ESR1/ESR2, or inhibiting the inflammation and immune-associated targets on the signaling network can be potentially effective or synergistic combined with other existing drugs for COVID-19 treatment.

Sepsis Prediction for the General Ward Setting.

Objective: To develop and evaluate a sepsis prediction model for the general ward setting and extend the evaluation through a novel pseudo-prospective trial design. Design: Retrospective analysis of data extracted from electronic health records (EHR). Setting: Single, tertiary-care academic medical center in St. Louis, MO, USA. Patients: Adult, non-surgical inpatients admitted between January 1, 2012 and June 1, 2019. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Of the 70,034 included patient encounters, 3.1% were septic based on the Sepsis-3 criteria. Features were generated from the EHR data and were used to develop a machine learning model to predict sepsis 6-h ahead of onset. The best performing model had an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC or c-statistic) of 0.862 ± 0.011 and Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.294 ± 0.021 compared to that of Logistic Regression (0.857 ± 0.008 and 0.256 ± 0.024) and NEWS 2 (0.699 ± 0.012 and 0.092 ± 0.009). In the pseudo-prospective trial, 388 (69.7%) septic patients were alerted on with a specificity of 81.4%. Within 24 h of crossing the alert threshold, 20.9% had a sepsis-related event occur. Conclusions: A machine learning model capable of predicting sepsis in the general ward setting was developed using the EHR data. The pseudo-prospective trial provided a more realistic estimation of implemented performance and demonstrated a 29.1% Positive Predictive Value (PPV) for sepsis-related intervention or outcome within 48 h.

Hospital trajectories and early predictors of clinical outcomes differ between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: A comparison of pneumonias due to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, in terms of clinical course and predictors of outcomes, might inform prognosis and resource management. We aimed to compare clinical course and outcome predictors in SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pneumonia using multi-state modelling and supervised machine learning on clinical data among hospitalised patients. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (March-December 2020) or influenza (Jan 2015-March 2020) pneumonia had the composite of hospital mortality and hospice discharge as the primary outcome. Multi-state models compared differences in oxygenation/ventilatory utilisation between pneumonias longitudinally throughout hospitalisation. Differences in predictors of outcome were modelled using supervised machine learning classifiers. FINDINGS: Among 2,529 hospitalisations with SARS-CoV-2 and 2,256 with influenza pneumonia, the primary outcome occurred in 21% and 9%, respectively. Multi-state models differentiated oxygen requirement progression between viruses, with SARS-CoV-2 manifesting rapidly-escalating early hypoxemia. Highly contributory classifier variables for the primary outcome differed substantially between viruses. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pneumonia differ in presentation, hospital course, and outcome predictors. These pathogen-specific differential responses in viral pneumonias suggest distinct management approaches should be investigated. FUNDING: This project was supported by NIH/NCATS UL1 TR002345, NIH/NCATS KL2 TR002346 (PGL), the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation grant 2015215 (PGL), NIH/NHLBI R35 HL140026 (CSC), and a Big Ideas Award from the BJC HealthCare and Washington University School of Medicine Healthcare Innovation Lab and NIH/NIGMS R35 GM142992 (PS).

Estrogen Hormone Is an Essential Sex Factor Inhibiting Inflammation and Immune Response in COVID-19.

Although vaccines have been evaluated and approved for SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention, there remains a lack of effective treatments to reduce the mortality of COVID-19 patients already infected with SARS-CoV-2. The global data of COVID-19 showed that men have a higher mortality rate than women. We further observed that the proportion of mortality of female increases starting from around the age of 55 significantly. Thus, sex is an essential factor associated with COVID-19 mortality, and sex related genetic factors could be interesting mechanisms and targets for COVID-19 treatment. However, the associated sex factors and signaling pathways remain unclear. Here, we propose to uncover the potential sex associated factors using systematic and integrative network analysis. The unique results indicated that estrogen hormones (ER), e.g., estrone and estriol, 1) interacting with ESR1/2 receptors, 2) can inhibit SARS-CoV-2 caused inflammation and immune response signaling in host cells; and 3) estrogen hormone is associated with the distinct fatality rates between male and female COVID-19 patients. Specifically, a high level of estradiol protecting young female COVID-19 patients, and estrogen loss to an extremely low level in females after about 55 years of age causing the increased fatality rate of women. In conclusion, estrogen hormone, interacting with ESR1/2 receptors, is an essential sex factor that protects COVID-19 patients by inhibiting inflammation and immune response caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Medications perturb the down-stream of ESR1/ESR2 to inhibit the inflammation and immune response can be effective or synergistic combined with other existing drugs for COVID-19 treatment.

Comparison of early warning scores for sepsis early identification and prediction in the general ward setting.

The objective of this study was to directly compare the ability of commonly used early warning scores (EWS) for early identification and prediction of sepsis in the general ward setting. For general ward patients at a large, academic medical center between early-2012 and mid-2018, common EWS and patient acuity scoring systems were calculated from electronic health records (EHR) data for patients that both met and did not meet Sepsis-3 criteria. For identification of sepsis at index time, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS 2) had the highest performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.803 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.795-0.811], area under the precision recall curves: 0.130 [95% CI: 0.121-0.140]) followed NEWS, Modified Early Warning Score, and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA). Using validated thresholds, NEWS 2 also had the highest recall (0.758 [95% CI: 0.736-0.778]) but qSOFA had the highest specificity (0.950 [95% CI: 0.948-0.952]), positive predictive value (0.184 [95% CI: 0.169-0.198]), and F1 score (0.236 [95% CI: 0.220-0.253]). While NEWS 2 outperformed all other compared EWS and patient acuity scores, due to the low prevalence of sepsis, all scoring systems were prone to false positives (low positive predictive value without drastic sacrifices in sensitivity), thus leaving room for more computationally advanced approaches.

Spot the difference: comparing results of analyses from real patient data and synthetic derivatives.

BACKGROUND: Synthetic data may provide a solution to researchers who wish to generate and share data in support of precision healthcare. Recent advances in data synthesis enable the creation and analysis of synthetic derivatives as if they were the original data; this process has significant advantages over data deidentification. OBJECTIVES: To assess a big-data platform with data-synthesizing capabilities (MDClone Ltd., Beer Sheva, Israel) for its ability to produce data that can be used for research purposes while obviating privacy and confidentiality concerns. METHODS: We explored three use cases and tested the robustness of synthetic data by comparing the results of analyses using synthetic derivatives to analyses using the original data using traditional statistics, machine learning approaches, and spatial representations of the data. We designed these use cases with the purpose of conducting analyses at the observation level (Use Case 1), patient cohorts (Use Case 2), and population-level data (Use Case 3). RESULTS: For each use case, the results of the analyses were sufficiently statistically similar (P > 0.05) between the synthetic derivative and the real data to draw the same conclusions. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This article presents the results of each use case and outlines key considerations for the use of synthetic data, examining their role in clinical research for faster insights and improved data sharing in support of precision healthcare.

Association of immunophenotype with expression of topoisomerase II α and ß in adult acute myeloid leukemia.

Anthracyclines used in the treatment of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) inhibit the activity of the mammalian topoisomerase II (topo II) isoforms, topo II α and topo IIß. In 230 patients with non-M3 AML who received frontline ara-C/daunorubicin we determined expression of topo IIα and topo IIß by RT-PCR and its relationship to immunophenotype (IP) and outcomes. Treatment outcomes were analyzed by logistic or Cox regression. In 211 patients, available for analysis, topo IIα expression was significantly lower than topo IIß (P < 0.0001). In contrast to topo IIα, topo IIß was significantly associated with blast percentage in marrow or blood (P = 0.0001), CD7 (P = 0.01), CD14 (P < 0.0001) and CD54 (P < 0.0001). Event free survival was worse for CD56-negative compared to CD56-high (HR = 1.9, 95% CI [1.0-3.5], p = 0.04), and overall survival was worse for CD-15 low as compared to CD15-high (HR = 2.2, 95% CI [1.1-4.2], p = 0.02). Ingenuity pathway analysis indicated topo IIß and immunophenotype markers in a network associated with cell-to-cell signaling, hematological system development/function and inflammatory response. Topo IIß expression reflects disease biology of highly proliferative disease and distinct IP but does not appear to be an independent variable influencing outcome in adult AML patients treated with anthracycline-based therapy.