Lake browning counteracts cyanobacteria responses to nutrients: Evidence from phytoplankton dynamics in large enclosure experiments and comprehensive observational data.

Lakes worldwide are affected by multiple stressors, including climate change. This includes massive loading of both nutrients and humic substances to lakes during extreme weather events, which also may disrupt thermal stratification. Since multi-stressor effects vary widely in space and time, their combined ecological impacts remain difficult to predict. Therefore, we combined two consecutive large enclosure experiments with a comprehensive time-series and a broad-scale field survey to unravel the combined effects of storm-induced lake browning, nutrient enrichment and deep mixing on phytoplankton communities, focusing particularly on potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms. The experimental results revealed that browning counteracted the stimulating effect of nutrients on phytoplankton and caused a shift from phototrophic cyanobacteria and chlorophytes to mixotrophic cryptophytes. Light limitation by browning was identified as the likely mechanism underlying this response. Deep-mixing increased microcystin concentrations in clear nutrient-enriched enclosures, caused by upwelling of a metalimnetic Planktothrix rubescens population. Monitoring data from a 25-year time-series of a eutrophic lake and from 588 northern European lakes corroborate the experimental results: Browning suppresses cyanobacteria in terms of both biovolume and proportion of the total phytoplankton biovolume. Both the experimental and observational results indicated a lower total phosphorus threshold for cyanobacterial bloom development in clearwater lakes (10-20 µg P L-1 ) than in humic lakes (20-30 µg P L-1 ). This finding provides management guidance for lakes receiving more nutrients and humic substances due to more frequent extreme weather events.

Size- and stage-dependence in cause-specific mortality of migratory brown trout.

Evidence-based management of natural populations under strong human influence frequently requires not only estimates of survival but also knowledge about how much mortality is due to anthropogenic vs. natural causes. This is the case particularly when individuals vary in their vulnerability to different causes of mortality due to traits, life history stages, or locations. Here, we estimated harvest and background (other cause) mortality of landlocked migratory salmonids over half a century. In doing so, we quantified among-individual variation in vulnerability to cause-specific mortality resulting from differences in body size and spawning location relative to a hydropower dam. We constructed a multistate mark-recapture model to estimate harvest and background mortality hazard rates as functions of a discrete state (spawning location) and an individual time-varying covariate (body size). We further accounted for among-year variation in mortality and migratory behaviour and fit the model to a unique 50-year time series of mark-recapture-recovery data on brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Norway. Harvest mortality was highest for intermediate-sized trout, and outweighed background mortality for most of the observed size range. Background mortality decreased with body size for trout spawning above the dam and increased for those spawning below. All vital rates varied substantially over time, but a trend was evident only in estimates of fishers' reporting rate, which decreased from over 50% to less than 10% throughout the study period. We highlight the importance of body size for cause-specific mortality and demonstrate how this can be estimated using a novel hazard rate parameterization for mark-recapture models. Our approach allows estimating effects of individual traits and environment on cause-specific mortality without confounding, and provides an intuitive way to estimate temporal patterns within and correlation among different mortality sources.

Individual heterogeneity and early life conditions shape growth in a freshwater top predator.

Body size can have profound impacts on survival, movement, and reproductive schedules shaping individual fitness, making growth a central process in ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Realized growth is the result of a complex interplay between life history schedules, individual variation, and environmental influences. Integrating all of these aspects into growth models is methodologically difficult, depends on the availability of repeated measurements of identifiable individuals, and consequently represents a major challenge in particular for natural populations. Using a unique 30-yr time series of individual length measurements inferred from scale year rings of wild brown trout, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate individual growth trajectories in temporally and spatially varying environments. We reveal a gradual decrease in average juvenile growth, which has carried over to adult life and contributed to decreasing sizes observed at the population level. Commonly studied environmental drivers like temperature and water flow did not explain much of this trend and overall persistent and among-year individual variation dwarfed temporal variation in growth patterns. Our model and results are relevant to a wide range of questions in ecology and evolution requiring a detailed understanding of growth patterns, including conservation and management of many size-structured populations.

Effects of multiple stressors on cyanobacteria abundance vary with lake type.

Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradictory evidence as to how they may interact. Here we used broad scale data from 494 lakes in central and northern Europe, to assess how cyanobacteria respond to nutrients (phosphorus), temperature and water retention time in different types of lakes. Eight lake types were examined based on factorial combinations of major factors that determine phytoplankton composition and sensitivity to nutrients: alkalinity (low and medium-high), colour (clear and humic) and mixing intensity (polymictic and stratified). In line with expectations, cyanobacteria increased with temperature and retention time in five of the eight lake types. Temperature effects were greatest in lake types situated at higher latitudes, suggesting that lakes currently not at risk could be affected by warming in the future. However, the sensitivity of cyanobacteria to temperature, retention time and phosphorus varied among lake types highlighting the complex responses of lakes to multiple stressors. For example, in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, humic lakes cyanobacteria biovolume was positively explained by retention time and a synergy between TP and temperature, while in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, clear lakes only retention time was identified as an explanatory variable. These results show that, although climate change will need to be accounted for when managing the risk of cyanobacteria in lakes, a "one-size fits-all" approach is not appropriate. When forecasting the response of cyanobacteria to future environmental change, including changes caused by climate and local management, it will be important to take this differential sensitivity of lakes into account.

Big Question to Developing Solutions: A Decade of Progress in the Development of Aquatic New Approach Methodologies from 2012 to 2022.

In 2012, 20 key questions related to hazard and exposure assessment and environmental and health risks of pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the natural environment were identified. A decade later, this article examines the current level of knowledge around one of the lowest-ranking questions at that time, number 19: "Can nonanimal testing methods be developed that will provide equivalent or better hazard data compared with current in vivo methods?" The inclusion of alternative methods that replace, reduce, or refine animal testing within the regulatory context of risk and hazard assessment of chemicals generally faces many hurdles, although this varies both by organism (human-centric vs. other), sector, and geographical region or country. Focusing on the past 10 years, only works that might reasonably be considered to contribute to advancements in the field of aquatic environmental risk assessment are highlighted. Particular attention is paid to methods of contemporary interest and importance, representing progress in (1) the development of methods which provide equivalent or better data compared with current in vivo methods such as bioaccumulation, (2) weight of evidence, or (3) -omic-based applications. Evolution and convergence of these risk assessment areas offer the basis for fundamental frameshifts in how data are collated and used for the protection of taxa across the breadth of the aquatic environment. Looking to the future, we are at a tipping point, with a need for a global and inclusive approach to establish consensus. Bringing together these methods (both new and old) for regulatory assessment and decision-making will require a concerted effort and orchestration. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:559-574. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay-Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975-2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:401-418. © 2023 Norwegian Institute for Water Research and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Using a Bayesian Network Model to Predict Risk of Pesticides on Aquatic Community Endpoints in a Rice Field-A Southern European Case Study.

Bayesian network (BN) models are increasingly used as tools to support probabilistic environmental risk assessments (ERAs), because they can better account for uncertainty compared with the simpler approaches commonly used in traditional ERA. We used BNs as metamodels to link various sources of information in a probabilistic framework, to predict the risk of pesticides to aquatic communities under given scenarios. The research focused on rice fields surrounding the Albufera Natural Park (Valencia, Spain), and considered three selected pesticides: acetamiprid (an insecticide), 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA; a herbicide), and azoxystrobin (a fungicide). The developed BN linked the inputs and outputs of two pesticide models: a process-based exposure model (Rice Water Quality [RICEWQ]), and a probabilistic effects model (Predicts the Ecological Risk of Pesticides [PERPEST]) using case-based reasoning with data from microcosm and mesocosm experiments. The model characterized risk at three levels in a hierarchy: biological endpoints (e.g., molluscs, zooplankton, insects, etc.), endpoint groups (plants, invertebrates, vertebrates, and community processes), and community. The pesticide risk to a biological endpoint was characterized as the probability of an effect for a given pesticide concentration interval. The risk to an endpoint group was calculated as the joint probability of effect on any of the endpoints in the group. Likewise, community-level risk was calculated as the joint probability of any of the endpoint groups being affected. This approach enabled comparison of risk to endpoint groups across different pesticide types. For example, in a scenario for the year 2050, the predicted risk of the insecticide to the community (40% probability of effect) was dominated by the risk to invertebrates (36% risk). In contrast, herbicide-related risk to the community (63%) resulted from risk to both plants (35%) and invertebrates (38%); the latter might represent (in the present study) indirect effects of toxicity through the food chain. This novel approach combines the quantification of spatial variability of exposure with probabilistic risk prediction for different components of aquatic ecosystems. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:182-196. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Incorporating climate change model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies: Synthesis of a SETAC Pellston Workshop®.

The impacts of global climate change are not yet well integrated with the estimates of the impacts of chemicals on the environment. This is evidenced by the lack of consideration in national or international reports that evaluate the impacts of climate change and chemicals on ecosystems and the relatively few peer-reviewed publications that have focused on this interaction. In response, a 2011 Pellston Workshop® was held on this issue and resulted in seven publications in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. Yet, these publications did not move the field toward climate change and chemicals as important factors together in research or policy-making. Here, we summarize the outcomes of a second Pellston Workshop® on this topic held in 2022 that included climate scientists, environmental toxicologists, chemists, and ecological risk assessors from 14 countries and various sectors. Participants were charged with assessing where climate models can be applied to evaluating potential exposure and ecological effects at geographical and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment, and thereby be incorporated into adaptive risk management strategies. We highlight results from the workshop's five publications included in the special series "Incorporating Global Climate Change into Ecological Risk Assessments: Strategies, Methods and Examples." We end this summary with the overall conclusions and recommendations from participants. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:359-366. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach.

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near- and long-term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State-of-the-art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:367-383. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Enhanced identification of endocrine disruptors through integration of science-based regulatory practices and innovative methodologies: The MERLON Project.

The prevalence of hormone-related health issues caused by exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is a significant, and increasing, societal challenge. Declining fertility rates together with rising incidence rates of reproductive disorders and other endocrine-related diseases underscores the urgency in taking more action. Addressing the growing threat of EDCs in our environment demands robust and reliable test methods to assess a broad variety of endpoints relevant for endocrine disruption. EDCs also require effective regulatory frameworks, especially as the current move towards greater reliance on non-animal methods in chemical testing puts to test the current paradigm for EDC identification, which requires that an adverse effect is observed in an intact organism. Although great advances have been made in the field of predictive toxicology, disruption to the endocrine system and subsequent adverse health effects may prove particularly difficult to predict without traditional animal models. The MERLON project seeks to expedite progress by integrating multispecies molecular research, new approach methodologies (NAMs), human clinical epidemiology, and systems biology to furnish mechanistic insights and explore ways forward for NAM-based identification of EDCs. The focus is on sexual development and function, from foetal sex differentiation of the reproductive system through mini-puberty and puberty to sexual maturity. The project aims are geared towards closing existing knowledge gaps in understanding the effects of EDCs on human health to ultimately support effective regulation of EDCs in the European Union and beyond.

Weight of evidence tools in the prediction of acute fish toxicity.

Acute fish toxicity (AFT) is a key endpoint in nearly all regulatory implementations of environmental hazard assessments of chemicals globally. Although it is an early tier assay, the AFT assay is complex and uses many juvenile fish each year for the registration and assessment of chemicals. Thus, it is imperative to seek animal alternative approaches to replace or reduce animal use for environmental hazard assessments. A Bayesian Network (BN) model has been developed that brings together a suite of lines of evidence (LoEs) to produce a probabilistic estimate of AFT without the testing of additional juvenile fish. Lines of evidence include chemical descriptors, mode of action (MoA) assignment, knowledge of algal and daphnid acute toxicity, and animal alternative assays such as fish embryo tests and in vitro fish assays (e.g., gill cytotoxicity). The effort also includes retrieval, assessment, and curation of quality acute fish toxicity data because these act as the baseline of comparison with model outputs. An ideal outcome of this effort would be to have global applicability, acceptance and uptake, relevance to predominant fish species used in chemical assessments, be expandable to allow incorporation of future knowledge, and data to be publicly available. The BN model can be conceived as having incorporated principles of tiered assessment and whose outcomes will be directed by the available evidence in combination with prior information. We demonstrate that, as additional evidence is included in the prediction of a given chemical's ecotoxicity profile, both the accuracy and the precision of the predicted AFT can increase. Ultimately an improved environmental hazard assessment will be achieved. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1220-1234. © 2022 SETAC.

Comparison of piecewise structural equation modeling and Bayesian network for de novo construction of a quantitative adverse outcome pathway network.

Quantitative adverse outcome pathway network (qAOPN) is gaining momentum due to its predictive nature, alignment with quantitative risk assessment, and great potential as a computational new approach methodology (NAM) to reduce laboratory animal tests. The present work aimed to demonstrate two advanced modeling approaches, piecewise structural equation modeling (PSEM) and Bayesian network (BN), for de novo qAOPN model construction based on routine ecotoxicological data. A previously published AOP network comprised of four linear AOPs linking excessive reactive oxygen species production to mortality in aquatic organisms was employed as a case study. The demonstrative case study intended to answer: Which linear AOP in the network contributed the most to the AO? Can any of the upstream KEs accurately predict the AO? What are the advantages and limitations of PSEM or BN in qAOPN development? The outcomes from the two approaches showed that both PSEM and BN are suitable for constructing a complex qAOPN based on limited experimental data. Besides quantification of response-response relationships, both approaches could identify the most influencing linear AOP in a complex network and evaluate the predictive ability of the AOP, albeit some discrepancies in predictive ability were identified for the two approaches using this specific dataset. The advantages and limitations of the two approaches for qAOPN construction are discussed in detail, and suggestions on optimal workflows of PSEM and BN are provided to guide future qAOPN development.

Predicting Environmental Risks of Pharmaceuticals from Wholesale Data: An Example from Norway.

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pharmaceuticals relies on available measured environmental concentrations, but often such data are sparse. Predicted environmental concentrations (PECs), calculated from sales weights, are an attractive alternative but often cover only prescription sales. We aimed to rank, by environmental risk in Norway, approximately 200 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) over 2016-2019, based on sales PECs. To assess the added value of wholesale and veterinary data, we compared exposure and risk predictions with and without these additional sources. Finally, we aimed to characterize the persistence, mobility, and bioaccumulation of these APIs. We compared our PECs to available Norwegian measurements, then, using public predicted-no-effect concentrations, we calculated risk quotients (RQs) and appended experimental and predicted persistence and bioaccumulation. Our approach overestimated environmental concentrations compared with measurements for 18 of 20 APIs with comparable predictions and measurements. Seventeen APIs had mean RQs >1, indicating potential risk, while the mean RQ was 2.05 and the median 0.001, driven by sex hormones, antibiotics, the antineoplastic abiraterone, and common painkillers. Some high-risk APIs were also potentially persistent or bioaccumulative (e.g., levonorgestrel [RQ = 220] and ciprofloxacin [RQ = 56]), raising the possibility of impacts beyond their RQs. Exposure and risk were also calculated with and without over-the-counter sales, showing that prescriptions explained 70% of PEC magnitude. Likewise, human sales, compared with veterinary, explained 85%. Sales PECs provide an efficient option for ERA, designed to overestimate compared with analytical techniques and potentially held back by limited data availability and an inability to quantify uncertainty but, nevertheless, an ideal initial approach for identification and ranking of risks. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2253-2270. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides in a protected Mediterranean wetland: A Bayesian network approach.

Pollution by agricultural pesticides is one of the most important pressures affecting Mediterranean coastal wetlands. Pesticide risks are expected to be influenced by climate change, which will result in an increase of temperatures and a decrease in annual precipitation. On the other hand, pesticide dosages are expected to change given the increase in pest resistance and the implementation of environmental policies like the European ´Farm-to-Fork` strategy, which aims for a 50 % reduction in pesticide usage by 2030. The influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides needs to be evaluated making use of realistic environmental scenarios. This study investigates how different climate change and pesticide use practices affect the ecological risks of pesticides in the Albufera Natural Park (Valencia, Spain), a protected Mediterranean coastal wetland. We performed a probabilistic risk assessment for nine pesticides applied in rice production using three climatic scenarios (for the years 2008, 2050 and 2100), three pesticide dosage regimes (the recommended dose, and 50 % increase and 50 % decrease), and their combinations. The scenarios were used to simulate pesticide exposure concentrations in the water column of the rice paddies using the RICEWQ model. Pesticide effects were characterized using acute and chronic Species Sensitivity Distributions built with toxicity data for aquatic organisms. Risk quotients were calculated as probability distributions making use of Bayesian networks. Our results show that future climate projections will influence exposure concentrations for some of the studied pesticides, yielding higher dissipation and lower exposure in scenarios dominated by an increase of temperatures, and higher exposure peaks in scenarios where heavy precipitation events occur right after pesticide application. Our case study shows that pesticides such as azoxystrobin, difenoconazole and MCPA are posing unacceptable ecological risks for aquatic organisms, and that the implementation of the ´Farm-to-Fork` strategy is crucial to reduce them.

Pharmaceutical pollution: Prediction of environmental concentrations from national wholesales data.

The regulation and monitoring of pharmaceutical pollution in Europe lag behind that of more prominent groups. However, the repurposing of sales data to predict surface water environmental concentrations is a promising supplement to more commonly used market-based risk assessment and measurement approaches. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) has since the 1980s compiled the Drug Wholesale Statistics database - covering all sales of both human and veterinary pharmaceuticals to retailers, pharmacies, and healthcare providers. To date, most similar works have focused either on a small subset of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) or used only prescription data, often more readily available than wholesale data, but necessarily more limited. By using the NIPH's product wholesale records, with additional information on API concentrations per product from, we have been able to calculate sales weights per year for almost 900 human and veterinary APIs for the period 2016-2019. In this paper, we present our methodology for converting the provided NIPH data from a public health to an ecotoxicological resource. From our derived dataset, we have used an equation to calculate Predicted Environmental Concentration per API for inland surface waters, a key component of environmental risk assessment. We further describe our filtering to remove ecotoxicological-exempt and data deficient APIs. Lastly, we provide a limited comparison between our dataset and similar publicly available datasets for a subset of APIs, as a validation of our approach and a demonstration of the added value of wholesale data. This dataset will provide the best coverage yet of pharmaceutical sales weights for an entire nation. Moreover, our developed routines for processing 2016-2019 data can be expanded to older Norwegian wholesales data (1974-present). Consequently, our work with this dataset can contribute to narrowing the gap between desk-based predictions of exposure from consumption, and empirical but expensive environmental measurement.

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides.

Conventional environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on a calculated risk quotient, representing the ratio of exposure to effects of the chemical, in combination with assessment factors to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment approaches can offer more transparency by using probability distributions for exposure and/or effects to account for variability and uncertainty. In this study, a probabilistic approach using Bayesian network modeling is explored as an alternative to traditional risk calculation. Bayesian networks can serve as meta-models that link information from several sources and offer a transparent way of incorporating the required characterization of uncertainty for environmental risk assessment. To this end, a Bayesian network has been developed and parameterized for the pesticides azoxystrobin, metribuzin, and imidacloprid. We illustrate the development from deterministic (traditional) risk calculation, via intermediate versions, to fully probabilistic risk characterization using azoxystrobin as an example. We also demonstrate the seasonal risk calculation for the three pesticides. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1072-1087. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Increased Use of Bayesian Network Models Has Improved Environmental Risk Assessments.

Environmental and ecological risk assessments are defined as the process for evaluating the likelihood that the environment may be impacted as a result of exposure to stressors. Although this definition implies the calculation of probabilities, risk assessments traditionally rely on nonprobabilistic methods such as calculation of a risk quotient. Bayesian network (BN) models are a tool for probabilistic and causal modeling, increasingly used in many fields of environmental science. Bayesian networks are defined as directed acyclic graphs where the causal relationships and the associated uncertainty are quantified in conditional probability tables. Bayesian networks inherently incorporate uncertainty and can integrate a variety of information types, including expert elicitation. During the last 2 decades, there has been a steady increase in reports on BN applications in environmental risk assessment and management. At recent annual meetings of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) North America and SETAC Europe, a number of applications of BN models were presented along with new theoretical developments. Likewise, recent meetings of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) have dedicated sessions to Bayesian modeling in relation to water quality. This special series contains 10 articles based on presentations in these sessions, reflecting a range of BN applications to systems, ranging from cells and populations to watersheds and national scale. The articles report on recent progress in many topics, including climate and management scenarios, ecological and socioeconomic endpoints, machine learning, diagnostic inference, and model evaluation. They demonstrate that BNs can be adapted to established conceptual frameworks used to support environmental risk assessments, such as adverse outcome pathways and the relative risk model. The contributions from EGU demonstrate recent advancements in areas such as spatial (geographic information system [GIS]-based) and temporal (dynamic) BN modeling. In conclusion, this special series supports the prediction that increased use of Bayesian network models will improve environmental risk assessments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:53-61. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Quantification of an Adverse Outcome Pathway Network by Bayesian Regression and Bayesian Network Modeling.

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has gained international recognition as a systematic approach linking mechanistic processes to toxicity endpoints. Nevertheless, successful implementation into risk assessments is still limited by the lack of quantitative AOP models (qAOPs) and assessment of uncertainties. The few published qAOP models so far are typically based on data-demanding systems biology models. Here, we propose a less data-demanding approach for quantification of AOPs and AOP networks, based on regression modeling and Bayesian networks (BNs). We demonstrate this approach with the proposed AOP #245, "Uncoupling of photophosphorylation leading to reduced ATP production associated growth inhibition," using a small experimental data set from exposure of Lemna minor to the pesticide 3,5-dichlorophenol. The AOP-BN reflects the network structure of AOP #245 containing 2 molecular initiating events (MIEs), 3 key events (KEs), and 1 adverse outcome (AO). First, for each dose-response and response-response (KE) relationship, we quantify the causal relationship by Bayesian regression modeling. The regression models correspond to dose-response functions commonly applied in ecotoxicology. Secondly, we apply the fitted regression models with associated uncertainty to simulate 10 000 response values along the predictor gradient. Thirdly, we use the simulated values to parameterize the conditional probability tables of the BN model. The quantified AOP-BN model can be run in several directions: 1) prognostic inference, run forward from the stressor node to predict the AO level; 2) diagnostic inference, run backward from the AO node; and 3) omnidirectionally, run from the intermediate MIEs and/or KEs. Internal validation shows that the AOP-BN can obtain a high accuracy rate, when run is from intermediate nodes and when a low resolution is acceptable for the AO. Although the performance of this AOP-BN is limited by the small data set, our study demonstrates a proof-of-concept: the combined use of Bayesian regression modeling and Bayesian network modeling for quantifying AOPs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:147-164. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

ECORISK2050: An Innovative Training Network for predicting the effects of global change on the emission, fate, effects, and risks of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems.

By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach nine billion, with almost three quarters living in cities. The road to 2050 will be marked by changes in land use, climate, and the management of water and food across the world. These global changes (GCs) will likely affect the emissions, transport, and fate of chemicals, and thus the exposure of the natural environment to chemicals. ECORISK2050 is a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network that brings together an interdisciplinary consortium of academic, industry and governmental partners to deliver a new generation of scientists, with the skills required to study and manage the effects of GCs on chemical risks to the aquatic environment. The research and training goals are to: (1) assess how inputs and behaviour of chemicals from agriculture and urban environments are affected by different environmental conditions, and how different GC scenarios will drive changes in chemical risks to human and ecosystem health; (2) identify short-to-medium term adaptation and mitigation strategies, to abate unacceptable increases to risks, and (3) develop tools for use by industry and policymakers for the assessment and management of the impacts of GC-related drivers on chemical risks. This project will deliver the next generation of scientists, consultants, and industry and governmental decision-makers who have the knowledge and skillsets required to address the changing pressures associated with chemicals emitted by agricultural and urban activities, on aquatic systems on the path to 2050 and beyond.

Using Bayesian hierarchical modelling to capture cyanobacteria dynamics in Northern European lakes.

Cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs currently threaten water security and affect the ecosystem services provided by these freshwater ecosystems, such as drinking water and recreational use. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation in the future because of higher temperatures, extended droughts and nutrient enrichment, due to urbanisation and intensified agriculture. Nutrients are considered critical for the deterioration of water quality in lakes and reservoirs and responsible for the widespread increase in cyanobacterial blooms. We model the response of cyanobacteria abundance to variations in lake Total Phosphorus (TP) and Total Nitrogen (TN) concentrations, using a data set from 822 Northern European lakes. We divide lakes in ten groups based on their physico-chemical characteristics, following a modified lake typology defined for the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This classification is used in a Bayesian hierarchical linear model which employs a probabilistic approach, transforming uncertainty into probability thresholds. The hierarchical model is used to calculate probabilities of cyanobacterial concentrations exceeding risk levels for human health associated with the use of lakes for recreational activities, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Different TN and TP concentration combinations result in variable probabilities to exceed pre-set thresholds. Our objective is to support lake managers in estimating acceptable nutrient concentrations and allow them to identify actions that would achieve compliance of cyanobacterial abundance risk levels with a given confidence level.