Evaluation of Noninvasive Tools for Predicting Esophageal Varices in Patients With Cirrhosis at Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town.

Background: In patients with cirrhosis, esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is a devastating consequence of portal hypertension (PH). Upper endoscopy is considered the gold standard for the detection and diagnosis of esophageal varices (EVs), despite being invasive and costly. This study was aimed at identifying and evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of noninvasive tools in predicting EVs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Methods: This cross-sectional study included 50 patients with compensated cirrhosis at the Tygerberg Hospital Gastroenterology Clinic in Cape Town between November 2022 and May 2023. We collected clinical, anthropometric, and laboratory data from patients' physical and electronic charts. All patients underwent an abdominal ultrasound, vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) to assess liver and splenic stiffness, and upper endoscopy. In this comparative study, we evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of different noninvasive tools in detecting EVs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Results: Of the 50 patients included in the study, 30 (60%) were female and 20 (40%) were male. The patients' age ranged from 18 to 83, with a mean age of 46.6 years. Cirrhosis was mainly due to alcohol use (n = 11, 22%), hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (n = 11, 22%), and autoimmune hepatitis (n = 10, 20%). The patients included in the study were divided into two subgroups: with (n = 34, 68%) or without (n = 16, 32%) EVs. Statistically significant differences were detected between groups in platelet count (PC), liver stiffness measurement (LSM), spleen stiffness measurement (SSM), portal vein diameter (PVD), bipolar spleen diameter (SBD), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), platelet/bipolar spleen diameter ratio (PSR), liver stiffness-spleen size-platelet ratio (LSPS), liver stiffness-spleen stiffness-platelet ratio score (LS3PS), and spleen stiffness-spleen size-platelet ratio score (SSPS) (p < 0.001). The highest diagnostic precision was observed with SSM (96%), SSPS (96%), LS3PS (94%), LSPS (94%), PSR (94%), and PC (92%). SBD (88%), LSM (86%), APRI (82%), and FIB-4 (82%) had the lowest diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion: SSM and SSPS have the highest diagnostic accuracy for predicting the presence of EVs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. LSPS, LS3PS, and PSR come second at 94%. We recommend SSM and SSPS in institutions with transient elastography equipped with the software necessary to measure splenic stiffness. We introduce and propose LS3PS as a novel composite score for predicting the presence of EVs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Large-sample-size studies are needed to validate these prediction scores and to allow direct comparison with Baveno VII. These prediction tools can help clinicians avoid unnecessary endoscopic procedures in patients with compensated cirrhosis, especially in developing countries with limited resources such as South Africa.

A tale of two waves: characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 admissions during the Omicron-driven fourth wave in Cape Town, South Africa, and implications for the future.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe the pattern of admissions during the fourth wave of COVID-19 in order to inform future public health policies. Methods: This was a retrospective descriptive study of an early cohort of all adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, at the start of the country's fourth wave. This was compared with an early cohort from the first wave at the same institution. Results: In total, 121 SARS-CoV-2-positive admissions from the fourth wave were included. Thirty-one (25.6%) patients had COVID-19 pneumonia, while 90 (74.4%) had incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. (In the first wave all 116 patients had COVID-19 pneumonia.) Thirty-two (26.4%) patients self-reported complete or partial COVID-19 vaccination, of whom 12 (37.5%) were admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia. Compared with the first wave, there were fewer intensive- or high-care admissions (18/121 [14.9%] vs 42/116 [36.2%]; p < 0.001) and mortality was lower (12/121 [9.9%] vs 31/116 [26.7%]; p = 0.001). Conclusion: Admissions to the COVID-19 wards during the fourth wave primarily included patients with incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. There was a reduction in the need for critical care and in-hospital mortality. This changing epidemiology of COVID-19 admissions may be attributed to a combination of natural and/or vaccination-acquired immunity.

Outcomes of hospitalised patients with hyperkalaemia at a South African tertiary healthcare centre.

Background: Hyperkalaemia is a common electrolyte disorder in hospitalised patients. There is a lack of data from Africa on the prevalence, causes and outcomes of patients with hyperkalaemia. We aimed to identify the frequency of hyperkalaemia in hospitalised adults, and to identify any risk factors for in-hospital death. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1921 adult patients admitted to hospital with hyperkalaemia (potassium concentration ([K]) ≥ 5·5 mmol/L) over a one-year period during 2019. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and multilinear regression was used to identify associations with the [K]. Findings: We found an incidence rate of 3·7 cases per 100 patient-years. Nearly a third died during hospitalisation. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was common in patients who died (69·2% vs. 41·3%, P < 0·01). Age (odds ratio (OR) 1·02, 95% CI 1·01-1·03), [K] (OR 1·38, 95% CI 1·12-1·71), AKI (OR 3·13, 95% CI 2·19-4·47) and acute therapy (OR 1·93, 95% CI 1·40-2·66) were predictors of in-hospital death. AKI (r = 0·29, P < 0·01) and chronic kidney disease (r = 0·31, P < 0·01) were associated with the [K]. Fourteen percent of patients with hyperkalaemia were HIV positive with no difference in in-hospital death (P = 0·75). Interpretation: This is the largest study reporting on the epidemiology of hyperkalaemia in hospitalised adults from Africa. Hyperkalaemia in association with AKI was a strong predictor of in-hospital death. Late presentation to hospital may be a major factor contributing to poor outcomes. Funding: Self-funded.

Correlating arterial blood gas, acid-base and blood pressure abnormalities with outcomes in COVID-19 intensive care patients.

BACKGROUND: During the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many studies have investigated laboratory biomarkers in management and prognostication of COVID-19 patients, however to date, few have investigated arterial blood gas, acid-base and blood pressure patterns. The aim of the study is to assess the arterial blood gas and acid-base patterns, blood pressure findings and their association with the outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit. METHODS: A single-centre retrospective, observational study in a dedicated COVID-19 intensive care unit in Cape Town, South Africa. Admission arterial blood gas, serum electrolytes, renal function and blood pressure readings performed on COVID-19 patients admitted between 26 March and 2 June 2020 were analysed and compared between survivors and non-survivors. RESULTS: A total of 56 intensive care unit patients had admission arterial blood gas performed at the time of intensive care unit admission. An alkalaemia (pH > 7.45) was observed in 36 (64.3%) patients. A higher arterial pH (median 7.48 [interquartile range: 7.45-7.51] versus 7.46 [interquartile range: 7.40-7.48], P = 0.049) and partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood (median 7.9 kPa [interquartile range: 7.3-9.6] versus 6.5 kPa [interquartile range: 5.2-7.3], P = <0.001) were significantly associated with survival. Survivors also tended to have a higher systolic blood pressure (median: 144 mmHg [interquartile range: 134-152] versus 139 mmHg [interquartile range: 125-142], P = 0.078) and higher arterial HCO3 (median: 28.0 mmol/L [interquartile range: 25.7-28.8] versus 26.3 mmol/L [interquartile range: 24.3-27.9], P = 0.059). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the study population admitted to intensive care unit had an alkalaemia on arterial blood gas. A higher pH and lower partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood on arterial blood gas analysis were significantly associated with survival.

The utility of high-flow nasal oxygen for severe COVID-19 pneumonia in a resource-constrained setting: A multi-centre prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: The utility of heated and humidified high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) for severe COVID-19-related hypoxaemic respiratory failure (HRF), particularly in settings with limited access to intensive care unit (ICU) resources, remains unclear, and predictors of outcome have been poorly studied. METHODS: We included consecutive patients with COVID-19-related HRF treated with HFNO at two tertiary hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who were successfully weaned from HFNO, whilst failure comprised intubation or death on HFNO. FINDINGS: The median (IQR) arterial oxygen partial pressure to fraction inspired oxygen ratio (PaO2/FiO2) was 68 (54-92) in 293 enroled patients. Of these, 137/293 (47%) of patients [PaO2/FiO2 76 (63-93)] were successfully weaned from HFNO. The median duration of HFNO was 6 (3-9) in those successfully treated versus 2 (1-5) days in those who failed (p<0.001). A higher ratio of oxygen saturation/FiO2 to respiratory rate within 6 h (ROX-6 score) after HFNO commencement was associated with HFNO success (ROX-6; AHR 0.43, 0.31-0.60), as was use of steroids (AHR 0.35, 95%CI 0.19-0.64). A ROX-6 score of ≥3.7 was 80% predictive of successful weaning whilst ROX-6 ≤ 2.2 was 74% predictive of failure. In total, 139 patents (52%) survived to hospital discharge, whilst mortality amongst HFNO failures with outcomes was 129/140 (92%). INTERPRETATION: In a resource-constrained setting, HFNO for severe COVID-19 HRF is feasible and more almost half of those who receive it can be successfully weaned without the need for mechanical ventilation.