Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV. METHODS: Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria. FINDINGS: The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Assessing infection control practices to protect health care workers and patients in Malawi from nosocomial transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) in health settings threatens health care workers and people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Nosocomial transmission is reduced with implementation of infection control (IC) guidelines. The objective of this study is to describe implementation of TB IC measures in Malawi. We conducted a cross-sectional study utilizing anonymous health worker questionnaires, semi-structured interviews with facility managers, and direct observations at 17 facilities in central Malawi. Of 592 health care workers surveyed, 34% reported that all patients entering the facility were screened for cough and only 8% correctly named the four most common signs and symptoms of TB in adults. Of 33 managers interviewed, 7 (21%) and 1 (3%) provided the correct TB screening questions for use in adults and children, respectively. Of 592 health workers, only 2.4% had been screened for TB in the previous year. Most (90%) reported knowing their HIV status, 53% were tested at their facility of employment, and half reported they would feel comfortable receiving ART or TB treatment at their facility of employment. We conclude that screening is infrequently conducted and knowledge gaps may undercut its effectiveness. Further, health care workers do not routinely access TB and HIV diagnostic and treatment services at their facility of employment.