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1.
Ecol Lett ; 26(5): 816-826, 2023 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36958943

RESUMO

Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green-up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite-derived LAI and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green-up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green-up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage-dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models.


Assuntos
Carbono , Mudança Climática , Fotossíntese , Folhas de Planta , Ecossistema
2.
Nature ; 509(7498): 86-90, 2014 May 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24759324

RESUMO

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of climate change, and are mainly constrained by rainfall patterns. The severe short-term droughts that occurred recently in Amazonia have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climatic disturbances. The central African rainforests, the second-largest on Earth, have experienced a long-term drying trend whose impacts on vegetation dynamics remain mostly unknown because in situ observations are very limited. The Congolese forest, with its drier conditions and higher percentage of semi-evergreen trees, may be more tolerant to short-term rainfall reduction than are wetter tropical forests, but for a long-term drought there may be critical thresholds of water availability below which higher-biomass, closed-canopy forests transition to more open, lower-biomass forests. Here we present observational evidence for a widespread decline in forest greenness over the past decade based on analyses of satellite data (optical, thermal, microwave and gravity) from several independent sensors over the Congo basin. This decline in vegetation greenness, particularly in the northern Congolese forest, is generally consistent with decreases in rainfall, terrestrial water storage, water content in aboveground woody and leaf biomass, and the canopy backscatter anomaly caused by changes in structure and moisture in upper forest layers. It is also consistent with increases in photosynthetically active radiation and land surface temperature. These multiple lines of evidence indicate that this large-scale vegetation browning, or loss of photosynthetic capacity, may be partially attributable to the long-term drying trend. Our results suggest that a continued gradual decline of photosynthetic capacity and moisture content driven by the persistent drying trend could alter the composition and structure of the Congolese forest to favour the spread of drought-tolerant species.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Folhas de Planta/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Chuva , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Clima Tropical , Aclimatação , Biodiversidade , Biomassa , Clorofila/análise , Clorofila/metabolismo , Congo , Secas/estatística & dados numéricos , Fotossíntese , Folhas de Planta/metabolismo , Imagens de Satélites , Estações do Ano , Temperatura , Fatores de Tempo , Árvores/metabolismo , Água/análise , Água/metabolismo , Madeira/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Madeira/metabolismo
3.
Nature ; 506(7487): 212-5, 2014 Feb 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24463514

RESUMO

Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.


Assuntos
Ciclo do Carbono/fisiologia , Temperatura , Clima Tropical , Regiões Antárticas , Atmosfera/química , Carbono/análise , Carbono/metabolismo , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Sequestro de Carbono , Secas , Ecossistema , Aquecimento Global , Havaí , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Umidade , Modelos Teóricos , Chuva
4.
Nature ; 509(7502): 600-3, 2014 May 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24847888

RESUMO

The land and ocean act as a sink for fossil-fuel emissions, thereby slowing the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Although the uptake of carbon by oceanic and terrestrial processes has kept pace with accelerating carbon dioxide emissions until now, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exhibit a large variability on interannual timescales, considered to be driven primarily by terrestrial ecosystem processes dominated by tropical rainforests. We use a terrestrial biogeochemical model, atmospheric carbon dioxide inversion and global carbon budget accounting methods to investigate the evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink over the past 30 years, with a focus on the underlying mechanisms responsible for the exceptionally large land carbon sink reported in 2011 (ref. 2). Here we show that our three terrestrial carbon sink estimates are in good agreement and support the finding of a 2011 record land carbon sink. Surprisingly, we find that the global carbon sink anomaly was driven by growth of semi-arid vegetation in the Southern Hemisphere, with almost 60 per cent of carbon uptake attributed to Australian ecosystems, where prevalent La Niña conditions caused up to six consecutive seasons of increased precipitation. In addition, since 1981, a six per cent expansion of vegetation cover over Australia was associated with a fourfold increase in the sensitivity of continental net carbon uptake to precipitation. Our findings suggest that the higher turnover rates of carbon pools in semi-arid biomes are an increasingly important driver of global carbon cycle inter-annual variability and that tropical rainforests may become less relevant drivers in the future. More research is needed to identify to what extent the carbon stocks accumulated during wet years are vulnerable to rapid decomposition or loss through fire in subsequent years.


Assuntos
Sequestro de Carbono , Clima Desértico , Ecossistema , Atmosfera/química , Austrália , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Incêndios , Modelos Teóricos , Chuva , Estações do Ano , Incerteza
5.
Glob Chang Biol ; 25(7): 2382-2395, 2019 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30943321

RESUMO

Seasonality in photosynthetic activity is a critical component of seasonal carbon, water, and energy cycles in the Earth system. This characteristic is a consequence of plant's adaptive evolutionary processes to a given set of environmental conditions. Changing climate in northern lands (>30°N) alters the state of climatic constraints on plant growth, and therefore, changes in the seasonality and carbon accumulation are anticipated. However, how photosynthetic seasonality evolved to its current state, and what role climatic constraints and their variability played in this process and ultimately in carbon cycle is still poorly understood due to its complexity. Here, we take the "laws of minimum" as a basis and introduce a new framework where the timing (day of year) of peak photosynthetic activity (DOYPmax ) acts as a proxy for plant's adaptive state to climatic constraints on its growth. Our analyses confirm that spatial variations in DOYPmax reflect spatial gradients in climatic constraints as well as seasonal maximum and total productivity. We find a widespread warming-induced advance in DOYPmax (-1.66 ± 0.30 days/decade, p < 0.001) across northern lands, indicating a spatiotemporal dynamism of climatic constraints to plant growth. We show that the observed changes in DOYPmax are associated with an increase in total gross primary productivity through enhanced carbon assimilation early in the growing season, which leads to an earlier phase shift in land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and an increase in their amplitude. Such changes are expected to continue in the future based on our analysis of earth system model projections. Our study provides a simplified, yet realistic framework based on first principles for the complex mechanisms by which various climatic factors constrain plant growth in northern ecosystems.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Fotossíntese , Ciclo do Carbono , Plantas , Estações do Ano
6.
Nature ; 501(7465): 88-92, 2013 Sep 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24005415

RESUMO

Temperature data over the past five decades show faster warming of the global land surface during the night than during the day. This asymmetric warming is expected to affect carbon assimilation and consumption in plants, because photosynthesis in most plants occurs during daytime and is more sensitive to the maximum daily temperature, Tmax, whereas plant respiration occurs throughout the day and is therefore influenced by both Tmax and the minimum daily temperature, Tmin. Most studies of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming, however, ignore this asymmetric forcing effect on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. Here we analyse the interannual covariations of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness) with Tmax and Tmin over the Northern Hemisphere. After removing the correlation between Tmax and Tmin, we find that the partial correlation between Tmax and NDVI is positive in most wet and cool ecosystems over boreal regions, but negative in dry temperate regions. In contrast, the partial correlation between Tmin and NDVI is negative in boreal regions, and exhibits a more complex behaviour in dry temperate regions. We detect similar patterns in terrestrial net CO2 exchange maps obtained from a global atmospheric inversion model. Additional analysis of the long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration record of the station Point Barrow in Alaska suggests that the peak-to-peak amplitude of CO2 increased by 23 ± 11% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmax from May to September over lands north of 51° N, but decreased by 28 ± 14% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmin. These lines of evidence suggest that asymmetric diurnal warming, a process that is currently not taken into account in many global carbon cycle models, leads to a divergent response of Northern Hemisphere vegetation growth and carbon sequestration to rising temperatures.


Assuntos
Escuridão , Geografia , Aquecimento Global , Plantas/metabolismo , Carbono/metabolismo , Ciclo do Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Respiração Celular , Ritmo Circadiano , Ecossistema , Fotossíntese/efeitos da radiação , Plantas/efeitos da radiação , Luz Solar , Temperatura
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 113(46): 13104-13108, 2016 11 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27799533

RESUMO

Conventional calculations of the global carbon budget infer the land sink as a residual between emissions, atmospheric accumulation, and the ocean sink. Thus, the land sink accumulates the errors from the other flux terms and bears the largest uncertainty. Here, we present a Bayesian fusion approach that combines multiple observations in different carbon reservoirs to optimize the land (B) and ocean (O) carbon sinks, land use change emissions (L), and indirectly fossil fuel emissions (F) from 1980 to 2014. Compared with the conventional approach, Bayesian optimization decreases the uncertainties in B by 41% and in O by 46%. The L uncertainty decreases by 47%, whereas F uncertainty is marginally improved through the knowledge of natural fluxes. Both ocean and net land uptake (B + L) rates have positive trends of 29 ± 8 and 37 ± 17 Tg C⋅y-2 since 1980, respectively. Our Bayesian fusion of multiple observations reduces uncertainties, thereby allowing us to isolate important variability in global carbon cycle processes.

8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 112(30): 9299-304, 2015 Jul 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26170316

RESUMO

In the Arctic, climate warming enhances vegetation activity by extending the length of the growing season and intensifying maximum rates of productivity. In turn, increased vegetation productivity reduces albedo, which causes a positive feedback on temperature. Over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), regional vegetation greening has also been observed in response to recent warming. Here, we show that in contrast to arctic regions, increased growing season vegetation activity over the TP may have attenuated surface warming. This negative feedback on growing season vegetation temperature is attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration (ET). The extra energy available at the surface, which results from lower albedo, is efficiently dissipated by evaporative cooling. The net effect is a decrease in daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range, which is supported by statistical analyses of in situ observations and by decomposition of the surface energy budget. A daytime cooling effect from increased vegetation activity is also modeled from a set of regional weather research and forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model simulations, but with a magnitude smaller than observed, likely because the WRF model simulates a weaker ET enhancement. Our results suggest that actions to restore native grasslands in degraded areas, roughly one-third of the plateau, will both facilitate a sustainable ecological development in this region and have local climate cobenefits. More accurate simulations of the biophysical coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere are needed to help understand regional climate change over the TP, and possible larger scale feedbacks between climate in the TP and the Asian monsoon system.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Transpiração Vegetal , Agricultura , Ásia , Clima , Simulação por Computador , Ecologia , Geografia , Modelos Estatísticos , Modelos Teóricos , Poaceae , Temperatura , Tibet , Água/química
9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 112(51): 15591-6, 2015 Dec 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26644555

RESUMO

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.


Assuntos
Sequestro de Carbono , Aquecimento Global , Clima Tropical , Ecossistema
10.
Glob Chang Biol ; 23(11): 4798-4813, 2017 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28417528

RESUMO

Significant increases in remotely sensed vegetation indices in the northern latitudes since the 1980s have been detected and attributed at annual and growing season scales. However, we presently lack a systematic understanding of how vegetation responds to asymmetric seasonal environmental changes. In this study, we first investigated trends in the seasonal mean leaf area index (LAI) at northern latitudes (north of 30°N) between 1982 and 2009 using three remotely sensed long-term LAI data sets. The most significant LAI increases occurred in summer (0.009 m2  m-2  year-1 , p < .01), followed by autumn (0.005 m2  m-2  year-1 , p < .01) and spring (0.003 m2 m-2  year-1 , p < .01). We then quantified the contribution of elevating atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2 ), climate change, nitrogen deposition, and land cover change to seasonal LAI increases based on factorial simulations from 10 state-of-the-art ecosystem models. Unlike previous studies that used multimodel ensemble mean (MME), we used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to optimize the integration of model ensemble. The optimally integrated ensemble LAI changes are significantly closer to the observed seasonal LAI changes than the traditional MME results. The BMA factorial simulations suggest that eCO2 provides the greatest contribution to increasing LAI trends in all seasons (0.003-0.007 m2  m-2  year-1 ), and is the main factor driving asymmetric seasonal LAI trends. Climate change controls the spatial pattern of seasonal LAI trends and dominates the increase in seasonal LAI in the northern high latitudes. The effects of nitrogen deposition and land use change are relatively small in all seasons (around 0.0002 m2  m-2  year-1 and 0.0001-0.001 m2  m-2  year-1 , respectively). Our analysis of the seasonal LAI responses to the interactions between seasonal changes in environmental factors offers a new perspective on the response of global vegetation to environmental changes.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Mudança Climática , Nitrogênio/análise , Desenvolvimento Vegetal , Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Agricultura , Agricultura Florestal , Folhas de Planta/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Estações do Ano
11.
Remote Sens Environ ; 198: 69-84, 2017 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28867834

RESUMO

This paper presents the theoretical basis of the algorithm designed for the generation of leaf area index and diurnal course of its sunlit portion from NASA's Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR). The Look-up-Table (LUT) approach implemented in the MODIS operational LAI/FPAR algorithm is adopted. The LUT, which is the heart of the approach, has been significantly modified. First, its parameterization incorporates the canopy hot spot phenomenon and recent advances in the theory of canopy spectral invariants. This allows more accurate decoupling of the structural and radiometric components of the measured Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF), improves scaling properties of the LUT and consequently simplifies adjustments of the algorithm for data spatial resolution and spectral band compositions. Second, the stochastic radiative transfer equations are used to generate the LUT for all biome types. The equations naturally account for radiative effects of the three-dimensional canopy structure on the BRF and allow for an accurate discrimination between sunlit and shaded leaf areas. Third, the LUT entries are measurable, i.e., they can be independently derived from both below canopy measurements of the transmitted and above canopy measurements of reflected radiation fields. This feature makes possible direct validation of the LUT, facilitates identification of its deficiencies and development of refinements. Analyses of field data on canopy structure and leaf optics collected at 18 sites in the Hyytiälä forest in southern boreal zone in Finland and hyperspectral images acquired by the EO-1 Hyperion sensor support the theoretical basis.

12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 111(45): 16041-6, 2014 Nov 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25349419

RESUMO

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Pradaria , Modelos Biológicos , Chuva , Floresta Úmida , Brasil
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 111(8): 2915-9, 2014 Feb 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24516135

RESUMO

China has the largest afforested area in the world (∼62 million hectares in 2008), and these forests are carbon sinks. The climatic effect of these new forests depends on how radiant and turbulent energy fluxes over these plantations modify surface temperature. For instance, a lower albedo may cause warming, which negates the climatic benefits of carbon sequestration. Here, we used satellite measurements of land surface temperature (LST) from planted forests and adjacent grasslands or croplands in China to understand how afforestation affects LST. Afforestation is found to decrease daytime LST by about 1.1 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 1 SD) and to increase nighttime LST by about 0.2 ± 0.5 °C, on average. The observed daytime cooling is a result of increased evapotranspiration. The nighttime warming is found to increase with latitude and decrease with average rainfall. Afforestation in dry regions therefore leads to net warming, as daytime cooling is offset by nighttime warming. Thus, it is necessary to carefully consider where to plant trees to realize potential climatic benefits in future afforestation projects.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Modelos Teóricos , Temperatura , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , China , Simulação por Computador , Mapeamento Geográfico , Geografia , Transpiração Vegetal/fisiologia
14.
Int J Biometeorol ; 61(6): 977-988, 2017 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27888339

RESUMO

Variations in leaf area index (LAI) are critical to research on forest ecosystem structure and function, especially carbon and water cycle, and their responses to climate change. Using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and global inventory modeling and mapping studies (GIMMS) LAI3g dataset from 1982 to 2010, we analyzed the nonlinear feature and spatial difference of forest LAI variability over China for the past 29 years in this paper. Results indicated that the national-averaged forest LAI was characterized by quasi-3- and quasi-7-year oscillations, which generally exhibited a rising trend with an increasing rate. When compared with 1982, forest LAI change by 2010 was more evident than that by 1990 and 2000. The largest increment of forest LAI occurred in Central and South China, while along the southeastern coastal areas LAI increased at the fastest pace. During the study period, forest LAI experienced from decrease to increase or vice versa across much of China and varied monotonically for only a few areas. Focusing on regional-averaged trend processes, almost all eco-geographical regions showed continuously increasing trends in forest LAI with different magnitudes and speeds, other than tropical humid region and temperate humid/subhumid region, where LAI decreased initially and increased afterwards.


Assuntos
Florestas , China , Mudança Climática , Modelos Teóricos , Folhas de Planta/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Imagens de Satélites , Temperatura , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento
15.
Glob Chang Biol ; 22(2): 682-703, 2016 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26598217

RESUMO

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/história , Modelos Teóricos , Clima , História do Século XX , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise de Componente Principal , Temperatura , Erupções Vulcânicas
16.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(45): 18110-5, 2013 Nov 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24145443

RESUMO

We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June-August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September-November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/história , Modelos Teóricos , Estações do Ano , Brasil , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Árvores
17.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(32): 13061-6, 2013 Aug 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23884654

RESUMO

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r(2) ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land-surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature-CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r(2) ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh - NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature-CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle.


Assuntos
Atmosfera/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Temperatura , Clima Tropical , Simulação por Computador , Ecossistema , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Monitoramento Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Incêndios , Geografia , Modelos Teóricos , Chuva , Fatores de Tempo
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(2): 565-70, 2013 Jan 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23267086

RESUMO

Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy.


Assuntos
Secas , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Brasil , Incêndios , Mapeamento Geográfico , Micro-Ondas , Radar , Fatores de Tempo , Clima Tropical
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(3): E185-92, 2013 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23213258

RESUMO

A strong positive correlation between vegetation canopy bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) in the near infrared (NIR) spectral region and foliar mass-based nitrogen concentration (%N) has been reported in some temperate and boreal forests. This relationship, if true, would indicate an additional role for nitrogen in the climate system via its influence on surface albedo and may offer a simple approach for monitoring foliar nitrogen using satellite data. We report, however, that the previously reported correlation is an artifact--it is a consequence of variations in canopy structure, rather than of %N. The data underlying this relationship were collected at sites with varying proportions of foliar nitrogen-poor needleleaf and nitrogen-rich broadleaf species, whose canopy structure differs considerably. When the BRF data are corrected for canopy-structure effects, the residual reflectance variations are negatively related to %N at all wavelengths in the interval 423-855 nm. This suggests that the observed positive correlation between BRF and %N conveys no information about %N. We find that to infer leaf biochemical constituents, e.g., N content, from remotely sensed data, BRF spectra in the interval 710-790 nm provide critical information for correction of structural influences. Our analysis also suggests that surface characteristics of leaves impact remote sensing of its internal constituents. This further decreases the ability to remotely sense canopy foliar nitrogen. Finally, the analysis presented here is generic to the problem of remote sensing of leaf-tissue constituents and is therefore not a specific critique of articles espousing remote sensing of foliar %N.


Assuntos
Nitrogênio/análise , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto/métodos , Espectroscopia de Luz Próxima ao Infravermelho/métodos , Árvores/química , Ciclo do Carbono , Clima , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Ecossistema , Luz , Ciclo do Nitrogênio , Folhas de Planta/química , Folhas de Planta/metabolismo , Folhas de Planta/efeitos da radiação , Espalhamento de Radiação , Árvores/metabolismo , Árvores/efeitos da radiação
20.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(1): 377-87, 2015 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25163596

RESUMO

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in the response of NDVI to changes in day- vs. night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (Tmax) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between Tmax and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone--total area 12.6×10(6) km2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in Tmax, increases in Tmax tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (Tmin) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes, which have not been captured by current land surface models, is important for improving the performance of next generation regional and global coupled vegetation-climate models.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Modelos Biológicos , Fotossíntese/fisiologia , Fenômenos Fisiológicos Vegetais , Estações do Ano , Temperatura , Ciclo do Carbono/fisiologia , Radiometria , Telemetria , Fatores de Tempo
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