A bacteraemia risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

OBJECTIVE: Design a risk model to predict bacteraemia in patients attended in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infection. METHODS: This was a national, prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study of blood cultures (BC) collected from adult patients (≥ 18 years) attended in 71 Spanish EDs from October 1 2019 to March 31, 2020. Variables with a p value < 0.05 were introduced in the univariate analysis together with those of clinical significance. The final selection of variables for the scoring scale was made by logistic regression with selection by introduction. The results obtained were internally validated by dividing the sample in a derivation and a validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 4,439 infectious episodes were included. Of these, 899 (20.25%) were considered as true bacteraemia. A predictive model for bacteraemia was defined with seven variables according to the Bacteraemia Prediction Model of the INFURG-SEMES group (MPB-INFURG-SEMES). The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.924 (CI 95%:0.914-0.934) in the derivation cohort, and 0.926 (CI 95%: 0.910-0.942) in the validation cohort. Patients were then split into ten risk categories, and had the following rates of risk: 0.2%(0 points), 0.4%(1 point), 0.9%(2 points), 1.8%(3 points), 4.7%(4 points), 19.1% (5 points), 39.1% (6 points), 56.8% (7 points), 71.1% (8 points), 82.7% (9 points) and 90.1% (10 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. The cut-off point of five points provided the best precision with a sensitivity of 95.94%, specificity of 76.28%, positive predictive value of 53.63% and negative predictive value of 98.50%. CONCLUSION: The MPB-INFURG-SEMES model may be useful for the stratification of risk of bacteraemia in adult patients with infection in EDs, together with clinical judgement and other variables independent of the process and the patient.

Socio-Demographic Health Determinants Are Associated with Poor Prognosis in Spanish Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Social vulnerability is a known determinant of health in respiratory diseases. Our aim was to identify whether there are socio-demographic factors among COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Spain and their potential impact on health outcomes during the hospitalization. METHODS: A multicentric retrospective case series study based on administrative databases that included all COVID-19 cases admitted in 19 Spanish hospitals from 1 March to 15 April 2020. Socio-demographic data were collected. Outcomes were critical care admission and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We included 10,110 COVID-19 patients admitted to 18 Spanish hospitals (median age 68 (IQR 54-80) years old; 44.5% female; 14.8% were not born in Spain). Among these, 779 (7.7%) cases were admitted to critical care units and 1678 (16.6%) patients died during the hospitalization. Age, male gender, being immigrant, and low hospital saturation were independently associated with being admitted to an intensive care unit. Age, male gender, being immigrant, percentile of average per capita income, and hospital experience were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Social determinants such as residence in low-income areas and being born in Latin American countries were associated with increased odds of being admitted to an intensive care unit and of in-hospital mortality. There was considerable variation in outcomes between different Spanish centers.

A multidrug-resistant microorganism infection risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

The aim was to develop a predictive model of infection by multidrug-resistant microorganisms (MDRO). A national, retrospective cohort study was carried out including all patients attended for an infectious disease in 54 Spanish Emergency Departments (ED), in whom a microbiological isolation was available from a culture obtained during their attention in the ED. A MDRO infection prediction model was created in a derivation cohort using backward logistic regression. Those variables significant at p < 0.05 assigned an integer score proportional to the regression coefficient. The model was then internally validated by k-fold cross-validation and in the validation cohort. A total of 5460 patients were included; 1345 (24.6%) were considered to have a MDRO infection. Twelve independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the ATM (assessment of threat for MDRO) score. The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.76 (CI 95% 0.74-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.72 (CI 95% 0.70-0.75) in the validation cohort (p = 0.0584). Patients were then split into 6 risk categories and had the following rates of risk: 7% (0-2 points), 16% (3-5 points), 24% (6-9 points), 33% (10-14 points), 47% (15-21 points), and 71% (> 21 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. Several patient-specific factors were independently associated with MDRO infection risk. When integrated into a clinical prediction rule, higher risk scores and risk classes were related to an increased risk for MDRO infection. This clinical prediction rule could be used by providers to identify patients at high risk and help to guide antibiotic strategy decisions, while accounting for clinical judgment.

Short-term prognostic factors in the elderly patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Factores pronósticos a corto plazo en los ancianos atendidos en urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse factors associated with short-term mortality in elderly patients seen in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infectious disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective, observational, multicentre, analytical study was carried out on patients aged 75years and older who were treated in the ED of one of the eight participating hospitals. An assessment was made of 26 independent variables that could influence mortality at 30days. They covered epidemiological, comorbidity, functional, clinical and analytical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: The study included 488 consecutive patients, 92 (18.9%) of whom died within 30days of visiting the ED. Three variables were significantly associated with higher mortality: severe functional dependence, with Barthel index ≤60 [odds ratio (OR) 8,92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.98-15.98, P=.003], systolic blood pressure <90mmHg [OR 7.34; 95%CI: 4.39-12.26, P=.005] and serum lactate >4mmol/l [OR 21.14; 95%CI: 8.94-49.97, P=.001]. The area under the curve for the model was 0.971 (95%CI: 0.951-0.991; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Several factors evaluated in an initial assessment in the ED, including the level of functional dependence, systolic blood pressure and, especially, serum lactate, were found to determine a poor short-term prognosis in the elderly patients who presented with an episode of an infectious disease.

Evaluation of emergency department visits prior to an HIV diagnosis: Missed opportunities.

OBJECTIVE: There is a high rate of occult infection and late diagnosis in HIV. Hospital emergency departments (ED) are an important point of health care. The present work aims to know the number of missed opportunities for HIV diagnosis occurring in the ED. METHOD: Retrospective multicenter cohort study that included all patients diagnosed with HIV infection in 2019 in 27 Spanish hospitals in 7 different autonomous communities. All ED consultation episodes in the 5 years prior to diagnosis were reviewed to find out the reason for consultation and whether this represented a missed opportunity for HIV diagnosis. RESULT: Seven hundred twenty-three patients were included, and 352 (48.7%, 95%CI: 45.1%-52.3%) had at least one ED visit during the 5 years prior to diagnosis (median 2, p25-p75: 1-4). One hundred and eighteen patients (16.3%, 95%CI: 13.8%-19.2%) had a missed diagnostic opportunity. The main consultations were drug use [145 (15%)], sexually transmitted infections [91 (9.4%)] and request for post-exposure HIV prophylaxis [39 (4%)]. One hundred and fifty-five (42.9%) of the 352 had less than 350 CD4/mm3 when the HIV diagnosis was established. In patients with previous ED visits, the mean time to diagnosis from this visit was 580 (SD 647) days. CONCLUSIONS: Sixteen percent of patients diagnosed with HIV missed the opportunity to be diagnosed in the 5 years prior to diagnosis, highlighting the need to implement ED screening measures different from current ones to improve these outcomes.

Ability of lactate, procalcitonin, and criteria defining sepsis to predict 30-day mortality, bacteremia, and microbiologically confirmed infection in patients with infection suspicion treated in emergency departments. / Capacidad del lactato, procalcitonina y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, bacteriemia o infección confirmada microbiológicamente en los pacientes atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate lactate, procalcitonin, criteria defining systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality, infection with microbiologic confirmation, and true bacteremia in patients treated for infection in hospital emergency departments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish emergency departments from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model's predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and predetermined decision points were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. True bacteremia was detected in 899 (20.25%), and microbiologic confirmation was on record for 2057 (46.3%). The model that included the qSOFA score (2) and lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.711-0.765 mmol/L) proved to be the best predictor of 30-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901). The model that included the SIRS score (2) and procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) proved to be the best predictor of true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation, with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.698-0.728). CONCLUSION: A qSOFA score of 2 or more plus lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L) predict 30-day mortality better than the combination of a SIRS score of 2 or more and procalcitonin concentration. A SIRS score of 2 or more plus procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) predict true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato, la procalcitonina (PCT) y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis (síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica ­SRIS­ y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment ­qSOFA­) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, o infección ­con confirmación microbiológica o bacteriemia verdadera (BV)­ en los pacientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) por un episodio de sospecha de infección. METODO: Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes 18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SUH españoles desde el 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y puntos de decisión predeterminados. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres, fallecieron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%), se consideraron BV 899 (20,2%) y se consiguió confirmación microbiológica en 2.057 (46,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días la mejor ABC-COR fue la obtenida con el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l con un ABC-COR de 0,738 (0,711-0,765). Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica el mejor rendimiento se obtuvo con el modelo de SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml, con un ABC-COR de 0,890 (0,880-0,901) y 0,713 (0,698-0,728), respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días, el qSOFA 2 es superior al SRIS 2 y el mejor rendimiento lo consigue el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l. Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica, la PCT es superior al lactato y el mejor rendimiento lo obtiene el modelo SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0-2 points, intermediate risk by 3-5 points, and high risk by 6-8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

Midregional proadrenomedullin safely reduces hospitalization in a low severity cohort with infections in the ED: a randomized controlled multi-centre interventional pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: The midregional fragment of proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) is known to provide accurate short-, mid- and long term prognostic information in the triage and multi-dimensional risk assessment of patients in the emergency department (ED). In two independent observational cohorts MR-proADM values identified low disease severity patients without risk of disease progression in the ED with no 28 days mortality that wouldn´t require hospitalization. In this interventional study we want to show that the combination of an MR-proADM algorithm with clinical assessment is able to identify low risk patients not requiring hospitalization to safely reduce the number of hospital admissions. METHODS: A randomized-controlled interventional multicenter study in 4 EDs in Spain. The study protocol was approved by Ethics Committees. Control arm patients received Standard Care. MR-proADM guided arm patients with low MR-proADM value (≤0.87 nmol/L) were treated as out-patients, with high MR-proADM value (>0.87 nmol/L) were hospitalized. The hospitalization rate was compared between the study arms. RESULTS: Two hundred patients with suspicion of infection were enrolled. In the MR-proADM guided arm the hospital admission rate in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population was 17% lower than in the control arm (40.6% vs. 57.6%, p=0.024) and 20% lower in the per protocol (PP) population (37.2% vs. 57.6%, p=0.009). No deaths of out-patients and no significant difference for the safety endpoints readmission and representation rates were observed. The readmission rate was only slightly higher in the MR-proADM guided arm compared to the control arm (PP population: at 14 days 9.3% vs. 7.1%, difference 2.1% (95% CI: -11.0% to 15.2%); and at 28 days 11.1% vs. 9.5%, difference 1.6% (95% CI: -12.2% to 15.4%)). The rate of 28 days representation was slightly lower in the MR-proADM guided arm compared to the control arm (20.4% vs. 26.2%, difference -5.8% (95% CI: -25.0% to 13.4%); PP population). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a MR-proADM algorithm optimizes ED workflows efficiently and sustainably. Hospitals can highly benefit from a reduced rate of hospitalizations by 20% using MR-proADM. The safety in the MR-proADM guided study arm was similar to the Standard Care arm. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03770533.

Emergency severity level-3 patient flow based on point-of-care testing improves patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Overcrowding of the Emergency Department is rapidly becoming a global challenge and a major source of concern for emergency physicians. The desire to improve Emergency Department throughput requires novel approaches to patient flow. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective and cluster-randomized study, to evaluate the impact in patient outcomes of a new patient flow based on Point-of-Care Testing (POCT). A total of 380 Emergency Severity Level-3 patients were enrolled and studied in two different groups, interventional arm (laboratory analyses performed on POCT analyzers implemented in the Emergency Department) or control arm (central laboratory). The primary outcome was the Emergency Department length of stay. Secondary outcome included the time to first medical intervention, the laboratory turnaround time and the time to disposition decision. Readmission within the 7 days after discharge was also calculated. RESULTS: Length of stay significantly decreased by 88.50 min (from 247.00 to 158.50), time to disposition decision by 89.00 min (from 192.00 to 103.00) and laboratory turnaround time by 67.11 min (from 89.84 to 22.73) in the POCT group. No increase in readmission was found. CONCLUSION: Our strategy based on POCT represents a good approach to optimize patient flow in the Emergency Department and it should be seen as a starting point for further studies focusing on improving throughput.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

Capacidad del qSOFA1-lactato para predecir mortalidad a 30 días en los pacientes atendidos por infección en urgencias / Ability of qSOFA1-lactate to predict 30-day mortality in patients seen for infection in the Emergency Department

Objetivo. Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días en los pacientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias (SU) por un episodio de sospecha de infección.Método. Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes ≥18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SU españoles del 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y los valores de sensibilidad (Se), especificidad (Es), valor predictivo positivo (VPP) y negativo (VPN). Resultados. Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (DE:18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres y fallecieron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días el ABC-COR obtenida con el modelo qSOFA=1 más lactato 2 mmol/l fue de 0,66 (IC 95%: 0,63-0,69) con una Se:68%, Es:70% y VPN:92%, mientras que qSOFA=1 obtuvo ABC-COR de 0,52 (IC 9%: 0,49-0,55) con una Se:42%, Es:64% y VPN:90%.Conclusiones. Para predecir mortalidad a los 30 días en los pacientes que acuden al SU por un episodio de infección, el modelo qSOFA=1 + lactato≥2 mmol/L mejora significativamente el poder predictivo conseguido de forma individual por qSOFA1 y llega a ser muy similiar al de qSOFA≥2 (AU)

Objectives. To evaluate lactate and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality in patients treated for infection in emergency departments (ED). Methods. Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish ED from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model’s predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and its values of sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative (NPV). Results. A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. For 30-day mortality, the AUC-COR obtained with the qSOFA = 1 model plus 2 mmol/l lactate was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) with Se: 68%, Es: 70% and NPV:92%, while qSOFA = 1 obtained AUC-COR of 0.52 (95% CI, 0.49-0.55) with a Se:42%, Es:64% and NPV:90%. Conclusions. To predict 30-day mortality in patients presenting to the ED due to an episode of infection, the qSOFA =1 + lactate≥2 mmol/L model significantly improves the predictive power achieved individually by qSOFA1 and becomes very similar to qSOFA≥2 (AU)

Analysis of quality antimicrobial agent use in the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital. / Análisis de la calidad de uso de antimicrobianos en el servicio de urgencias de un hospital de tercer nivel.

OBJECTIVES: To describe modifiable factors related to inappropriate antimicrobial treatment in the observation area of an emergency department to explore practices that can be targeted for change through a program to improve emergency use of antimicrobial agents, the PROA program in its spanish observations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cross-sectional serial point-prevalence study of all antimicrobial prescriptions for patients under observation in the department in February and March 2015.The main outcome measure was the frequency of antimicrobial treatment that was inappropriate according the center's guidelines. Two evaluators assessed appropriateness. RESULTS: We analyzed 406 antimicrobial treatments. The main clinical syndromes were pneumonia (24%), urinary infections (22%), and nonpneumonia lower respiratory infections (22%). We found that 51.5% of the antimicrobial treatments were inappropriate. Factors associated with inappropriate prescriptions were a failure to analyze microbiologic samples before treating (61%), failure to specify the focus of infection in the case records (73%), and failure to meet the definition of sepsis (58%). CONCLUSION: Fewer than half the antimicrobial treatments were appropriate as prescribed. Signs of serious infection, specification of the focus of infection in the patient's records, and the analysis of biologic samples were independent predictors of quality care (appropriate antimicrobial prescription). These factors can be targeted for training in the development of a specific emergency department program to improve this aspect of care.

OBJETIVO: Describir los factores modificables relacionados con el tratamiento antimicrobiano (TA) inadecuado en el área de observación de urgencias (AOU), que se puedan constituir en dianas de intervención para un programa de optimización del uso de antimicrobianos (PROA) específico en el servicio de urgencias (SU). METODO: Estudio transversal de puntos de prevalencia seriados (PPS) de todas las prescripciones antimicrobianas de los pacientes ingresados en el AOU de febrero a marzo de 2015. La variable principal fue la inadecuación del TA evaluada en base a la guía local de referencia por dos evaluadores. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 406 TA. Los principales síndromes clínicos encontrados fueron: neumonía (24%), infecciones urinarias (22%) e infecciones del tracto respiratorio inferior no neumónicas (22%). El 51,5% de los TA fue inadecuado. La falta de obtención de muestras microbiológicas antes del TA (61%), no describir el «foco infeccioso¼ en la historia clínica del paciente (73%) y la ausencia de criterios de sepsis (58%) se asociaron a un TA inadecuado. CONCLUSIONES: El TA adecuado fue inferior al 50%. La presentación grave del cuadro infeccioso, el registro del foco en la historia clínica y la obtención de muestras microbiológicas se relacionaban independientemente con una mejor calidad en la prescripción antimicrobiana. Estos factores pueden constituir dianas para el desarrollo de un PROA específico en el SU.

Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in older patients in the emergency department: a 30-day risk model. / Modelo de riesgo a 30 días en los pacientes ancianos con infección y síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica atendidos en los servicios de urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To build a model to predict 30-day mortality and compare it to prediction based on the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in patients aged 75 years or older treated for infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the emergency department. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective analysis of a convenience cohort of patients aged 75 years or older treated for infection and SIRS in 13 Spanish emergency departments in 2013. We recorded demographic variables; comorbidity; risk factors for poor outcome; functional dependence at baseline; site of infection; and hemodynamic, clinical and laboratory findings on start of care.The main outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-nine patients with a mean (SD) age of 84 (5.8) years were included; 186 (49.,1%) were women, 150 (39.6%) had a high degree of comorbidity, and 113 (34.2%) had a high level of functional dependence. Seventy-nine (20.8%) died within 30 days. The model built by the infection working group (INFURG) of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine (SEMES) included the presence of metastasis from a solid tumor (odds ratio [OR], 5.4; 95% CI, 1.6-18.2; P=.006), respiratory insufficiency (OR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.5-6.0; P=.002), renal insufficiency (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.0-5.5; P=.045), arterial hypertension (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-5.0; P=.015), and altered level of consciousness (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.4-5.8; P=.003). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the INFURG-OLDER model was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.84; P<.001) (vs 0.72 (95% CI, 0.64-0.80; P<.001 for the MEDS model). CONCLUSION: The INFURG-OLDER model has good predictive ability for 30-day mortality in patients aged 75 years or older who are treated in emergency departments for SIRS.

OBJETIVO: . Diseñar un modelo de riesgo para predecir la mortalidad a los 30 días, y compararlo con la escala MEDS (Mortality in Emergency Department), en pacientes 75 años atendidos por infección con síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica (SIRS) en los servicios de urgencias (SU). METODO: Estudio analítico de cohortes prospectivo que incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes 75 años atendidos por infección con SIRS en 13 SU españoles durante el año 2013. Se recogieron variables demográficas, comorbilidad, factores de riesgo de mala evolución, situación funcional basal, modelo de infección, y parámetros hemodinámicos, clínicos y analíticos en el momento de la primera atención. La variable de resultado principal fue mortalidad por cualquier causa a los 30 días. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 379 pacientes con edad media de 84 (DE 5,8) años, 186 (49,1%) fueron mujeres, 150 (39,6%) tenían alto grado de comorbilidad y 113 (34,2%) dependencia funcional grave. Setenta y nueve pacientes (20,8%) fallecieron a los 30 días. El modelo INFURG-OLDER incluyó la presencia de tumor sólido con metástasis (OR = 5,4; IC95% 1,6- 18,2; p = 0,006), la insuficiencia respiratoria (OR = 3,02; IC95% 1,5-6,0; p = 0,002), la insuficiencia renal (OR = 2,4; IC95% 1,0-5,5; p = 0,045), la hipotensión arterial (OR = 2,4; IC95% 1,2-5,0; p = 0,015) y la disminución del nivel de consciencia (OR = 2,9; IC95% 1,4-5,8; p = 0,003). El área bajo la curva (ABC) del modelo INFURG-OLDER fue de 0,78 (IC95% 0,72- 0,84; p < 0,001) y el ABC de la escala MEDS fue de 0,72 (IC95% 0,64-0,80; p < 0,001). CONCLUSIONES: El modelo INFURG-OLDER tiene buena capacidad para predecir la mortalidad a los 30 días en los pacientes 75 años atendidos por infección con SIRS en los SU.

180-day risk of mortality in older patients admitted to short-stay units: the 6-Month Short-Stay Unit (6M UCE) Score. / Modelo de riesgo de mortalidad a 180 días en los pacientes ancianos ingresados en unidades de corta estancia: 6M UCE-SCORE.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a multidimensional score to assess risk of death for patients of advanced age 180 days after their admission to short-stay units (SSUs). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective, multicenter, observational and analytical study of a cohort of patients aged 75 years or older who were admitted to 5 Spanish SSUs between February 1 and April 30, 2014. We recorded demographic and clinical data as well as geriatric assessment scores. A multilevel logistic regression model was developed to identify independent factors associated with 180-day mortality. The model was used to construct a scale for scoring risk. RESULTS: Data for 593 patients with a mean (SD) age of 83.4 (5.9) years entered the model; 359 (60.7%) were women. Ninety-two patients (15.5%) died within 180 days of SSU admission. Factors included in the final risk score were age over 85 years (1 point), male sex (1), loss of appetite or weight loss in the 3 months before admission (1), acute confusional state (2), functional dependence for basic activities of daily living at admission (2), and pressure ulcers (2). Low risk was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 9 points. Mortality rates at 180 days in these 3 risk groups were 5%, 18%, and 54%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model after boots trapping was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.78). CONCLUSION: The SSU score could be useful for stratifying risk of death within 6 months of SSU admission of older patients, so that type of care can be tailored to risk.

OBJETIVO: Diseñar una escala de puntuación multidimensional con el fin de estratificar el riesgo de mortalidad a 180 días entre los ancianos ingresados en las unidades de corta estancia (UCE). METODO: Estudio analítico observacional de cohortes prospectivo multicéntrico que seleccionó todos los pacientes 75 años ingresados en 5 UCE españolas del 1 de febrero al 30 de abril de 2014. Se recogieron variables demográficas, clínicas y de la valoración geriátrica. Se derivó un modelo de regresión logística multinivel para identificar los factores independientemente asociados con la mortalidad a 180 días y después se construyó una escala de puntuación. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 593 pacientes (edad media 83,4 años, DE: 5,9; 359 mujeres, 60,7%), y 92 (15,5%) fallecieron a los 180 días. La escala de puntuación 6M UCE-SCORE incluyó la edad 85 años (1 punto), sexo varón (1 punto), presencia de pérdida de apetito o peso involuntaria en los últimos 3 meses (1 punto), síndrome confusional agudo (2 puntos), dependencia en las actividades básicas de la vida diaria al ingreso (2 puntos) y úlceras por presión (2 puntos). Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), intermedio (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-9 puntos) riesgo, con una mortalidad a 180 días de 5%, 18% y 54%, respectivamente. El ABC COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,72 (IC95%: 0,65-0,78). CONCLUSIONES: La escala de puntuación 6M UCE-SCORE podría ser de utilidad a la hora de estratificar el riesgo a 6 meses entre los ancianos ingresados en las UCE con el fin de diseñar un plan individualizado de cuidados.

Capacidad del lactato, procalcitonina y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, bacteriemia o infección confirmada microbiológicamente en los pacientes atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias / Ability of lactate, procalcitonin, and criteria defining sepsis to predict 30-day mortality, bacteremia, and microbiologically confirmed infection in patients with infection suspicion treated in emergency departments

Objetivo. Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato, la procalcitonina (PCT) y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis (síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica –SRIS– y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment –qSOFA–) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, o infección –con confirmación microbiológica o bacteriemia verdadera (BV)– en los pa- cientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) por un episodio de sospecha de infección. Método. Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes $ 18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SUH españoles desde el 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y puntos de de- cisión predeterminados. Resultados. Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres, fallecie- ron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%), se consideraron BV 899 (20,2%) y se consiguió confirmación microbiológica en 2.057 (46,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días la mejor ABC-COR fue la obtenida con el modelo qSOFA $ 2 más lactato $ 2 mmol/l con un ABC-COR de 0,738 (0,711-0,765). Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica el mejor rendi- miento se obtuvo con el modelo de SRIS $ 2 más PCT $ 0,51 ng/ml, con un ABC-COR de 0,890 (0,880-0,901) y 0,713 (0,698-0,728), respectivamente. Conclusiones. Para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días, el qSOFA $ 2 es superior al SRIS $ 2 y el mejor rendimien- to lo consigue el modelo qSOFA $ 2 más lactato $ 2 mmol/l. Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica, la PCT es superior al lactato y el mejor rendimiento lo obtiene el modelo SRIS $ 2 más PCT $ 0,51 ng/ml.

Objectives. To evaluate lactate, procalcitonin, criteria defining systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality, infection with microbiologic confirmation, and true bacteremia in patients treated for infection in hospital emergency departments. Methods. Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish emergency departments from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model’s predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and predetermined decision points were assessed. Results. A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. True bacteremia was detected in 899 (20.25%), and microbiologic confirmation was on record for 2057 (46.3%). The model that included the qSOFA score ($ 2) and lactate concentration ($ 0.738 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.711-0.765 mmol/L) proved to be the best predictor of 30-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901). The model that included the SIRS score ($ 2) and procalcitonin concentration ($ 0.51 ng/mL) proved to be the best predictor of true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation, with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.698-0.728). Conclusions. A qSOFA score of 2 or more plus lactate concentration ($ 0.738 mmol/L) predict 30-day mortality better than the combination of a SIRS score of 2 or more and procalcitonin concentration. A SIRS score of 2 or more plus procalcitonin concentration ($ 0.51 ng/mL) predict true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation.

Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección / Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections

ObjetivoValidar un modelo sencillo de riesgo para predecir bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH) por un episodio de infección.MétodosEstudio observacional de cohortes prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en 74 SUH españoles en los pacientes adultos (≥18 años) atendidos por infección desde el 1 de octubre de 2019 hasta el 29 de febrero de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegidos con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo.ResultadosSe incluyeron 3.843 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideraron como bacteriemias verdaderas 839 (21,83%) y como HC negativos 3.004 (78,17%). Entre los negativos, 172 (4,47%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,5, 16,8 y 81,6%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,930 (IC 95%: 0,916-0,948). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo con un PC≥5 puntos consigue una sensibilidad del 94,76% (IC 95%: 92,97-96,12), especificidad del 81,56% (IC 95%: 80,11-82,92) y un valor predictivo negativo del 98,24% (IC 95%: 97,62-98,70).ConclusiónEl modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los pacientes atendidos en el SUH por un episodio de infección.

ObjectiveTo validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections.MethodsProspective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020.The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value.ResultsA total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70).ConclusionThe 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

[Spanish short-stay-units: results according to department designated to manage the unit]. / Análisis de los resultados de gestión de las unidades de corta estancia españolas según su dependencia funcional.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the efficiency of short-stay units (SSUs) managed by different departments within hospitals. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study in 40 hospitals with SSUs. From June 1 to December 31, 2012,we gathered data on clinical caseloads and management. Variables directly related to efficiency were mean length of stay, bed rotation index, and weekend discharge rate. RESULTS: Forty SSUs were studied; 25 (62.5%) were managed by the hospital's emergency department (ED), 9 (22.5%) were managed by the internal medicine department (IMD), 5 (12.5%) were independent, and 1 was jointly managed by the hospital's ED and the IMD. A total of 45 140 patients were discharged from the SSUs. The most common diagnoses were exacerbation of chronic heart or respiratory disease, urinary tract infection, and respiratory infection. Age was the only variable that was related to the hospital department designated to manage these SSUs. The mean ages by management type were as follows: independent SSUs (75.6 years) vs ED-managed SSUs (67.2 years) vs IMD-managed SSUs (57.8 years) (P=.02). Group-by-group comparisons showed that the mean length of stay was shorter in ED-managed SSUs than in IMD-managed units (2.65 vs 3.73 respectively; P=.047), and overall mortality was lower in IMD-managed SSUs than in ED-managed SSUs (0.64% vs 3%; P=.033). However, unforeseen mortality (after excluding patients under palliative care or judged to be in the final hours of life) did not differ significantly between groups. CONCLUSION: We did not detect important differences between SSUs managed by different departments in the hospitals in this series. However, mean length of stay was found to be shorter in ED-managed SSUs than in IMD-managed units.

OBJETIVO: Comparar los resultados de gestión clínica de las unidades de corta estancia (UCE) según su dependencia funcional. METODO: Estudio de análisis transversal realizado en 40 hospitales con UCE (1 junio-31 diciembre 2012). Se recogieron datos de actividad y gestión clínica, considerando como variables directamente relacionadas con la eficiencia la estancia media, el índice de rotación por cama y el porcentaje de altas en fin de semana. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 40 UCE, 25 (62,5%) dependientes del servicio de urgencias (UCEU), 9 (22,5%) de medicina interna (UCEMI), 5 (12,5%) independientes (UCEI) y 1 con dependencia mixta (UCEU + UCEMI). El número total de altas fue de 45.140. Los diagnósticos más frecuentes fueron la exacerbación de la patología crónica cardiaca y respiratoria, la infección urinaria y la respiratoria. En relación a su dependencia funcional no se observaron diferencias en los parámetros analizados intergrupos salvo en la edad media (UCEI 75,6 años vs UCEU 67,2 vs UCEMI 57,8; p = 0,02). Al realizar la comparación intragrupos, la estancia media fue menor en las UCEU que las UCEMI (2,65 días vs 3,73; p = 0,047) y la mortalidad global menor en las UCEMI que las UCEU (0,64% vs 3%; p = 0,033), pero sin diferencias al comparar la mortalidad no esperada una vez excluidos los pacientes paliativos y/o en situación de últimas horas. CONCLUSIONES: En la serie analizada no se observan diferencias destacables al comparar las UCE en conjunto según dependencia funcional. Sin embargo, en el análisis intragrupos las UCEU lograron menor estancia media que las UCEMI.

Espectro clínico del SUNCT y de la neuralgia trigeminal secundarios: un abordaje multidisciplinar desde urgencias / Clinical spectrum of associated SUNCT (shortlasting unilateral neuralgiform headache attacks with conjunctival injection and tearing) and trigeminal neuralgia: a multidisciplinary approach in the emergency department

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Análisis de la calidad de uso de antimicrobianos en el servicio de urgencias de un hospital de tercer nivel / Analysis of quality antimicrobial agent use in the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital

Objetivo. Describir los factores modificables relacionados con el tratamiento antimicrobiano (TA) inadecuado en el área de observación de urgencias (AOU), que se puedan constituir en dianas de intervención para un programa de optimización del uso de antimicrobianos (PROA) específico en el servicio de urgencias (SU). Métodos. Estudio transversal de puntos de prevalencia seriados (PPS) de todas las prescripciones antimicrobianas de los pacientes ingresados en el AOU de febrero a marzo de 2015. La variable principal fue la inadecuación del TA evaluada en base a la guía local de referencia por dos evaluadores. Resultados. Se analizaron 406 TA. Los principales síndromes clínicos encontrados fueron: neumonía (24%), infecciones urinarias (22%) e infecciones del tracto respiratorio inferior no neumónicas (22%). El 51,5% de los TA fue inadecuado. La falta de obtención de muestras microbiológicas antes del TA (61%), no describir el «foco infeccioso» en la historia clínica del paciente (73%) y la ausencia de criterios de sepsis (58%) se asociaron a un TA inadecuado. Conclusiones. El TA adecuado fue inferior al 50%. La presentación grave del cuadro infeccioso, el registro del foco en la historia clínica y la obtención de muestras microbiológicas se relacionaban independientemente con una mejor calidad en la prescripción antimicrobiana. Estos factores pueden constituir dianas para el desarrollo de un PROA específico en el SU

Objective. To describe modifiable factors related to inappropriate antimicrobial treatment in the observation area of an emergency department to explore practices that can be targeted for change through a program to improve emergency use of antimicrobial agents, the PROA program in its spanish observations. Methods. Cross-sectional serial point-prevalence study of all antimicrobial prescriptions for patients under observation in the department in February and March 2015.The main outcome measure was the frequency of antimicrobial treatment that was inappropriate according the center's guidelines. Two evaluators assessed appropriateness. Results. We analyzed 406 antimicrobial treatments. The main clinical syndromes were pneumonia (24%), urinary infections (22%), and nonpneumonia lower respiratory infections (22%). We found that 51.5% of the antimicrobial treatments were inappropriate. Factors associated with inappropriate prescriptions were a failure to analyze microbiologic samples before treating (61%), failure to specify the focus of infection in the case records (73%), and failure to meet the definition of sepsis (58%). Conclusions. Fewer than half the antimicrobial treatments were appropriate as prescribed. Signs of serious infection, specification of the focus of infection in the patient's records, and the analysis of biologic samples were independent predictors of quality care (appropriate antimicrobial prescription). These factors can be targeted for training in the development of a specific emergency department program to improve this aspect of care