Prediction and diagnosis of depression using machine learning with electronic health records data: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the most significant health conditions in personal, social, and economic impact. The aim of this review is to summarize existing literature in which machine learning methods have been used in combination with Electronic Health Records for prediction of depression. METHODS: Systematic literature searches were conducted within arXiv, PubMed, PsycINFO, Science Direct, SCOPUS and Web of Science electronic databases. Searches were restricted to information published after 2010 (from 1st January 2011 onwards) and were updated prior to the final synthesis of data (27th January 2022). RESULTS: Following the PRISMA process, the initial 744 studies were reduced to 19 eligible for detailed evaluation. Data extraction identified machine learning methods used, types of predictors used, the definition of depression, classification performance achieved, sample size, and benchmarks used. Area Under the Curve (AUC) values more than 0.9 were claimed, though the average was around 0.8. Regression methods proved as effective as more developed machine learning techniques. LIMITATIONS: The categorization, definition, and identification of the numbers of predictors used within models was sometimes difficult to establish, Studies were largely Western Educated Industrialised, Rich, Democratic (WEIRD) in demography. CONCLUSION: This review supports the potential use of machine learning techniques with Electronic Health Records for the prediction of depression. All the selected studies used clinically based, though sometimes broad, definitions of depression as their classification criteria. The reported performance of the studies was comparable to or even better than that found in primary care. There are concerns with generalizability and interpretability.

Replicability and reproducibility of predictive models for diagnosis of depression among young adults using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in machine learning combined with the growing availability of digitized health records offer new opportunities for improving early diagnosis of depression. An emerging body of research shows that Electronic Health Records can be used to accurately predict cases of depression on the basis of individual's primary care records. The successes of these studies are undeniable, but there is a growing concern that their results may not be replicable, which could cast doubt on their clinical usefulness. METHODS: To address this issue in the present paper, we set out to reproduce and replicate the work by Nichols et al. (2018), who trained predictive models of depression among young adults using Electronic Healthcare Records. Our contribution consists of three parts. First, we attempt to replicate the methodology used by the original authors, acquiring a more up-to-date set of primary health care records to the same specification and reproducing their data processing and analysis. Second, we test models presented in the original paper on our own data, thus providing out-of-sample prediction of the predictive models. Third, we extend past work by considering several novel machine-learning approaches in an attempt to improve the predictive accuracy achieved in the original work. RESULTS: In summary, our results demonstrate that the work of Nichols et al. is largely reproducible and replicable. This was the case both for the replication of the original model and the out-of-sample replication applying NRCBM coefficients to our new EHRs data. Although alternative predictive models did not improve model performance over standard logistic regression, our results indicate that stepwise variable selection is not stable even in the case of large data sets. CONCLUSION: We discuss the challenges associated with the research on mental health and Electronic Health Records, including the need to produce interpretable and robust models. We demonstrated some potential issues associated with the reliance on EHRs, including changes in the regulations and guidelines (such as the QOF guidelines in the UK) and reliance on visits to GP as a predictor of specific disorders.