RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer incidence is high in Kenya due to HIV and limited access to cancer prevention services. Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been shown to increase HIV acquisition; however, the potential impact of HPV vaccination on HIV is unknown. We modeled the health impact of HPV vaccination in the context of the HIV epidemiology in Kenya. METHODS: Using a validated compartmental transmission model of HIV and HPV set in Kenya, we evaluated five scenarios of nonavalent HPV vaccination: single-age-vaccination of 10-year-old girls at 90% coverage; multi-age-cohort (MAC) vaccination of 10-14-year-old girls at 90% coverage; MAC plus moderate-coverage (50%) catch-up vaccination of 15-24-year-old women; MAC plus high-coverage (80%) catch-up of 15-24-year-old women; and MAC plus catch-up of 15-44-year-old women at 80% coverage (HPV-FASTER). We compared cervical cancer incidence, HIV prevalence, and cumulative cervical cancer and HIV cases averted after 50 years to a baseline scenario without vaccination. In all scenarios, we assumed the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goal for HIV treatment is attained by 2030. FINDINGS: In 2021, model-estimated cervical cancer incidence is 44/100,000 and HIV prevalence among women is 6·5%. In 2070, projected cancer incidence declines to 27/100,000 and HIV prevalence reaches 0·3% without vaccination. With single-age-vaccination, cancer incidence in 2070 is reduced by 68%, averting 64,529 cumulative cancer cases. MAC vaccination reduces cancer incidence by 75%, averting 206,115 cancer cases. Moderate and high-coverage catch-up and HPV-FASTER reduce cancer incidence by 80%, 82%, and 84%, averting 254,930, 278,690, and 326,968 cancer cases, respectively. In all scenarios, HIV prevalence in 2070 is reduced by a relative 8-11%, with 15,609-34,981 HIV cases averted after 50 years. INTERPRETATION: HPV vaccination can substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence in Kenya in the next 50 years, particularly if women up to age 24 are vaccinated. HIV treatment scale-up can also alleviate cervical cancer burden. However, HPV vaccination has modest additional impact on HIV when antiretroviral therapy coverage is high. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: As efforts are made to reach universal access to ART in Kenya, the problem of congestion at HIV care clinics is likely to worsen. We evaluated the feasibility and the economic benefits of a designated time appointment system as a solution to decongest HIV care clinics. METHODS: This was an explanatory two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial that enrolled 354 consenting participants during their normal clinic days and followed-up at subsequent clinic appointments for up to nine months. Intervention arm participants were given specific dates and times to arrive at the clinic for their next appointment while those in the control arm were only given the date and had the discretion to decide on the time to arrive as is the standard practice. At follow-up visits, we recorded arrival and departure times and asked the monetary value of work participants engaged in before and after clinic. We conducted multiple imputation to replace missing data in our primary outcome variables to allow for intention-to-treat analysis; and analyzed the data using Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: Overall, 72.1% of the intervention participants arrived on time, 13.3% arrived ahead of time and 14.6% arrived past scheduled time. Intervention arm participants spent a median of 65 [interquartile range (IQR), 52-87] minutes at the clinic compared to 197 (IQR, 173-225) minutes for control participants (p<0.01). Furthermore, intervention arm participants were more productively engaged on their clinic days valuing their cumulative work at a median of USD 10.5 (IQR, 60.0-16.8) compared to participants enrolled in the control arm who valued their work at USD 8.3 (IQR, 5.5-12.9; p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: A designated time appointment system is feasible and provides substantial time savings associated with greater economic productivity for HIV patients attending a busy HIV care clinic.