Association of COVID-19 With Major Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Diseases: A Population-Wide Cohort Study of 48 Million Adults in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. METHODS: We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history. RESULTS: Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

Educational inequality in multimorbidity: causality and causal pathways. A mendelian randomisation study in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, typically defined as having two or more long-term health conditions, is associated with reduced wellbeing and life expectancy. Understanding the determinants of multimorbidity, including whether they are causal, may help with the design and prioritisation of prevention interventions. This study seeks to assess the causality of education, BMI, smoking and alcohol as determinants of multimorbidity, and the degree to which BMI, smoking and alcohol mediate differences in multimorbidity by level of education. METHODS: Participants were 181,214 females and 155,677 males, mean ages 56.7 and 57.1 years respectively, from UK Biobank. We used a Mendelian randomization design; an approach that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to interrogate causality. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 55.1%. Mendelian randomization suggests that lower education, higher BMI and higher levels of smoking causally increase the risk of multimorbidity. For example, one standard deviation (equivalent to 5.1 years) increase in genetically-predicted years of education decreases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.0% (95% CI: 6.5 to 11.4%). A 5 kg/m2 increase in genetically-predicted BMI increases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.2% (95% CI: 8.1 to 10.3%) and a one SD higher lifetime smoking index increases the risk of multimorbidity by 6.8% (95% CI: 3.3 to 10.4%). Evidence for a causal effect of genetically-predicted alcohol consumption on multimorbidity was less strong; an increase of 5 units of alcohol per week increases the risk of multimorbidity by 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2 to 2.5%). The proportions of the association between education and multimorbidity explained by BMI and smoking are 20.4% and 17.6% respectively. Collectively, BMI and smoking account for 31.8% of the educational inequality in multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Education, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption are intervenable causal risk factors for multimorbidity. Furthermore, BMI and lifetime smoking make a considerable contribution to the generation of educational inequalities in multimorbidity. Public health interventions that improve population-wide levels of these risk factors are likely to reduce multimorbidity and inequalities in its occurrence.

A study of common Mendelian disease carriers across ageing British cohorts: meta-analyses reveal heterozygosity for alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency increases respiratory capacity and height.

BACKGROUND: Several recessive Mendelian disorders are common in Europeans, including cystic fibrosis (CFTR), medium-chain-acyl-Co-A-dehydrogenase deficiency (ACADM), phenylketonuria (PAH) and alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency (SERPINA1). METHODS: In a multicohort study of >19,000 older individuals, we investigated the relevant phenotypes in heterozygotes for these genes: lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC)) for CFTR and SERPINA1; cognitive measures for ACADM and PAH; and physical capability for ACADM, PAH and SERPINA1. RESULTS: Findings were mostly negative but lung function in SERPINA1 (protease inhibitor (PI) Z allele, rs28929474) showed enhanced FEV1 and FVC (0.13 z-score increase in FEV1 (p=1.7 × 10(-5)) and 0.16 z-score increase in FVC (p=5.2 × 10(-8))) in PI-MZ individuals. Height adjustment (a known, strong correlate of FEV1 and FVC) revealed strong positive height associations of the Z allele (1.50 cm increase in height (p=3.6 × 10(-10))). CONCLUSIONS: The PI-MZ rare (2%) SNP effect is nearly four times greater than the 'top' common height SNP in HMGA2. However, height only partially attenuates the SERPINA1-FEV1 or FVC association (around 50%) and vice versa. Height SNP variants have recently been shown to be positively selected collectively in North versus South Europeans, while the Z allele high frequency is localised to North Europe. Although PI-ZZ is clinically disadvantageous to lung function, PI-MZ increases both height and respiratory function; potentially a balanced polymorphism. Partial blockade of PI could conceivably form part of a future poly-therapeutic approach in very short children. The notion that elastase inhibition should benefit patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may also merit re-evaluation. PI is already a therapeutic target: our findings invite a reconsideration of the optimum level in respiratory care and novel pathway potential for development of agents for the management of growth disorders.

An integrative approach to detect epigenetic mechanisms that putatively mediate the influence of lifestyle exposures on disease susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: There is mounting evidence that our environment and lifestyle has an impact on epigenetic regulatory mechanisms, such as DNA methylation. It has been suggested that these molecular processes may mediate the effect of risk factors on disease susceptibility, although evidence in this regard has been challenging to uncover. Using genetic variants as surrogate variables, we have used two-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) to investigate the potential implications of putative changes to DNA methylation levels on disease susceptibility. METHODS: To illustrate our approach, we identified 412 CpG sites where DNA methylation was associated with prenatal smoking. We then applied 2SMR to investigate potential downstream effects of these putative changes on 643 complex traits using findings from large-scale genome-wide association studies. To strengthen evidence of mediatory mechanisms, we used multiple-trait colocalization to assess whether DNA methylation, nearby gene expression and complex trait variation were all influenced by the same causal genetic variant. RESULTS: We identified 22 associations that survived multiple testing (P < 1.89 × 10-7). In-depth follow-up analyses of particular note suggested that the associations between DNA methylation at the ASPSCR1 and REST/POL2RB gene regions, both linked with reduced lung function, may be mediated by changes in gene expression. We validated associations between DNA methylation and traits using independent samples from different stages across the life course. CONCLUSION: Our approach should prove valuable in prioritizing CpG sites that may mediate the effect of causal risk factors on disease. In-depth evaluations of findings are necessary to robustly disentangle causality from alternative explanations such as horizontal pleiotropy.

Effect of smoking on physical and cognitive capability in later life: a multicohort study using observational and genetic approaches.

OBJECTIVES: The observed associations between smoking and functional measures at older ages are vulnerable to bias and confounding. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses genotype as an instrumental variable to estimate unconfounded causal associations. We conducted a meta-analysis of the observational associations and implemented an MR approach using the smoking-related single nucleotide polymorphism rs16969968 to explore their causal nature. SETTING: 9 British cohorts belonging to the HALCyon collaboration. PARTICIPANTS: Individual participant data on N=26,692 individuals of European ancestry (N from earliest phase analysed per study) of mean ages 50-79 years were available for inclusion in observational meta-analyses of the primary outcomes. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Physical capability, cognitive capability and cognitive decline. The smoking exposures were cigarettes per day, current versus ex-smoker, current versus never smoker and ever versus never smoker. RESULTS: In observational analyses current and ever smoking were generally associated with poorer physical and cognitive capability. For example, current smokers had a general fluid cognition score which was 0.17 z-score units (95% CI -0.221 to -0.124) lower than ex-smokers in cross-sectional analyses. Current smokers had a walk speed which was 0.25 z-score units lower than never smokers (95% CI -0.338 to -0.170). An MR instrumental variable approach for current versus ex-smoker and number of cigarettes smoked per day produced CIs which neither confirmed nor refuted the observational estimates. The number of genetic associations stratified by smoking status were consistent with type I error. CONCLUSIONS: Our observational analysis supports the hypothesis that smoking is detrimental to physical and cognitive capability. Further studies are needed for a suitably powered MR approach.