Kelp-forest dynamics controlled by substrate complexity.

The factors that determine why ecosystems exhibit abrupt shifts in state are of paramount importance for management, conservation, and restoration efforts. Kelp forests are emblematic of such abruptly shifting ecosystems, transitioning from kelp-dominated to urchin-dominated states around the world with increasing frequency, yet the underlying processes and mechanisms that control their dynamics remain unclear. Here, we analyze four decades of data from biannual monitoring around San Nicolas Island, CA, to show that substrate complexity controls both the number of possible (alternative) states and the velocity with which shifts between states occur. The superposition of community dynamics with reconstructions of system stability landscapes reveals that shifts between alternative states at low-complexity sites reflect abrupt, high-velocity events initiated by pulse perturbations that rapidly propel species across dynamically unstable state-space. In contrast, high-complexity sites exhibit a single state of resilient kelp-urchin coexistence. Our analyses suggest that substrate complexity influences both top-down and bottom-up regulatory processes in kelp forests, highlight its influence on kelp-forest stability at both large (island-wide) and small (<10 m) spatial scales, and could be valuable for holistic kelp-forest management.

Predator feeding rates may often be unsaturated under typical prey densities.

Predator feeding rates (described by their functional response) must saturate at high prey densities. Although thousands of manipulative functional response experiments show feeding rate saturation at high densities under controlled conditions, it remains unclear how saturated feeding rates are at natural prey densities. The general degree of feeding rate saturation has important implications for the processes determining feeding rates and how they respond to changes in prey density. To address this, we linked two databases-one of functional response parameters and one on mass-abundance scaling-through prey mass to calculate a feeding rate saturation index. We find that: (1) feeding rates may commonly be unsaturated and (2) the degree of saturation varies with predator and prey taxonomic identities and body sizes, habitat, interaction dimension and temperature. These results reshape our conceptualisation of predator-prey interactions in nature and suggest new research on the ecological and evolutionary implications of unsaturated feeding rates.

Systematic bias in studies of consumer functional responses.

Functional responses are a cornerstone to our understanding of consumer-resource interactions, so how to best describe them using models has been actively debated. Here we focus on the consumer dependence of functional responses to evidence systematic bias in the statistical comparison of functional-response models and the estimation of their parameters. Both forms of bias are universal to nonlinear models (irrespective of consumer dependence) and are rooted in a lack of sufficient replication. Using a large compilation of published datasets, we show that - due to the prevalence of low sample size studies - neither the overall frequency by which alternative models achieve top rank nor the frequency distribution of parameter point estimates should be treated as providing insight into the general form or central tendency of consumer interference. We call for renewed clarity in the varied purposes that motivate the study of functional responses, purposes that can compete with each other in dictating the design, analysis and interpretation of functional-response experiments.

Hidden layers of density dependence in consumer feeding rates.

Functional responses relate a consumer's feeding rates to variation in its abiotic and biotic environment, providing insight into consumer behaviour and fitness, and underpinning population and food-web dynamics. Despite their broad relevance and long-standing history, we show here that the types of density dependence found in classic resource- and consumer-dependent functional-response models equate to strong and often untenable assumptions about the independence of processes underlying feeding rates. We first demonstrate mathematically how to quantify non-independence between feeding and consumer interference and between feeding on multiple resources. We then analyse two large collections of functional-response data sets to show that non-independence is pervasive and borne out in previously hidden forms of density dependence. Our results provide a new lens through which to view variation in consumer feeding rates and disentangle the biological underpinnings of species interactions in multi-species contexts.

Trematode parasites exceed aquatic insect biomass in Oregon stream food webs.

Although parasites are increasingly recognized for their ecosystem roles, it is often assumed that free-living organisms dominate animal biomass in most ecosystems and therefore provide the primary pathways for energy transfer. To examine the contributions of parasites to ecosystem energetics in freshwater streams, we quantified the standing biomass of trematodes and free-living organisms at nine sites in three streams in western Oregon, USA. We then compared the rates of biomass flow from snails Juga plicifera into trematode parasites relative to aquatic vertebrate predators (sculpin, cutthroat trout and Pacific giant salamanders). The trematode parasite community had the fifth highest dry biomass density among stream organisms (0.40 g/m2 ) and exceeded the combined biomass of aquatic insects. Only host snails (3.88 g/m2 ), sculpin (1.11 g/m2 ), trout (0.73 g/m2 ) and crayfish (0.43 g/m2 ) had a greater biomass. The parasite 'extended phenotype', consisting of trematode plus castrated host biomass, exceeded the individual biomass of every taxonomic group other than snails. The substantial parasite biomass stemmed from the high snail density and infection prevalence, and the large proportional mass of infected hosts that consisted of trematode tissue (M = 31% per snail). Estimates of yearly biomass transfer from snails into trematodes were slightly higher than the combined estimate of snail biomass transfer into the three vertebrate predators. Pacific giant salamanders accounted for 90% of the snail biomass consumed by predators. These results demonstrate that trematode parasites play underappreciated roles in the ecosystem energetics of some freshwater streams.

Long-Term Rodent Surveillance after Outbreak of Hantavirus Infection, Yosemite National Park, California, USA, 2012.

In 2012, a total of 9 cases of hantavirus infection occurred in overnight visitors to Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California, USA. In the 6 years after the initial outbreak investigation, the California Department of Public Health conducted 11 rodent trapping events in developed areas of Yosemite Valley and 6 in Tuolumne Meadows to monitor the relative abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and seroprevalence of Sin Nombre orthohantavirus, the causative agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Deer mouse trap success in Yosemite Valley remained lower than that observed during the 2012 outbreak investigation. Seroprevalence of Sin Nombre orthohantavirus in deer mice during 2013-2018 was also lower than during the outbreak, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.02). The decreased relative abundance of Peromyscus spp. mice in developed areas of Yosemite Valley after the outbreak is probably associated with increased rodent exclusion efforts and decreased peridomestic habitat.

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century.

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = -0.018 y-1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (-0.015 to -0.18 y-1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y-1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species.

What drives interaction strengths in complex food webs? A test with feeding rates of a generalist stream predator.

Describing the mechanisms that drive variation in species interaction strengths is central to understanding, predicting, and managing community dynamics. Multiple factors have been linked to trophic interaction strength variation, including species densities, species traits, and abiotic factors. Yet most empirical tests of the relative roles of multiple mechanisms that drive variation have been limited to simplified experiments that may diverge from the dynamics of natural food webs. Here, we used a field-based observational approach to quantify the roles of prey density, predator density, predator-prey body-mass ratios, prey identity, and abiotic factors in driving variation in feeding rates of reticulate sculpin (Cottus perplexus). We combined data on over 6,000 predator-prey observations with prey identification time functions to estimate 289 prey-specific feeding rates at nine stream sites in Oregon. Feeding rates on 57 prey types showed an approximately log-normal distribution, with few strong and many weak interactions. Model selection indicated that prey density, followed by prey identity, were the two most important predictors of prey-specific sculpin feeding rates. Feeding rates showed a positive relationship with prey taxon densities that was inconsistent with predator saturation predicted by current functional response models. Feeding rates also exhibited four orders-of-magnitude in variation across prey taxonomic orders, with the lowest feeding rates observed on prey with significant anti-predator defenses. Body-mass ratios were the third most important predictor variable, showing a hump-shaped relationship with the highest feeding rates at intermediate ratios. Sculpin density was negatively correlated with feeding rates, consistent with the presence of intraspecific predator interference. Our results highlight how multiple co-occurring drivers shape trophic interactions in nature and underscore ways in which simplified experiments or reliance on scaling laws alone may lead to biased inferences about the structure and dynamics of species-rich food webs.

Exact probabilities for the indeterminacy of complex networks as perceived through press perturbations.

We consider the goal of predicting how complex networks respond to chronic (press) perturbations when characterizations of their network topology and interaction strengths are associated with uncertainty. Our primary result is the derivation of exact formulas for the expected number and probability of qualitatively incorrect predictions about a system's responses under uncertainties drawn form arbitrary distributions of error. Additional indices provide new tools for identifying which links in a network are most qualitatively and quantitatively sensitive to error, and for determining the volume of errors within which predictions will remain qualitatively determinate (i.e. sign insensitive). Together with recent advances in the empirical characterization of uncertainty in networks, these tools bridge a way towards probabilistic predictions of network dynamics.

Quantifying predator dependence in the functional response of generalist predators.

A long-standing debate concerns how functional responses are best described. Theory suggests that ratio dependence is consistent with many food web patterns left unexplained by the simplest prey-dependent models. However, for logistical reasons, ratio dependence and predator dependence more generally have seen infrequent empirical evaluation and then only so in specialist predators, which are rare in nature. Here we develop an approach to simultaneously estimate the prey-specific attack rates and predator-specific interference (facilitation) rates of predators interacting with arbitrary numbers of prey and predator species in the field. We apply the approach to surveys and experiments involving two intertidal whelks and their full suite of potential prey. Our study provides strong evidence for predator dependence that is poorly described by the ratio dependent model over manipulated and natural ranges of species abundances. It also indicates how, for generalist predators, even the qualitative nature of predator dependence can be prey-specific.

The application of Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify individual diet specialization.

Intraspecific variation in ecologically relevant traits is widespread. In generalist predators in particular, individual diet specialization is likely to have important consequences for food webs. Understanding individual diet specialization empirically requires the ability to quantify individual diet preferences accurately. Here we compare the currently used frequentist maximum likelihood approach, which infers individual preferences using the observed prey proportions to Bayesian hierarchical models that instead estimate these proportions. Using simulated and empirical data, we find that the approach of using observed prey proportions consistently overestimates diet specialization relative to the Bayesian hierarchical approach when the number of prey observations per individual is low or the number of prey observations vary among individuals, two common features of empirical data. Furthermore, the Bayesian hierarchical approach permits the estimation of point estimates for both prey proportions and their variability within and among levels of organization (i.e., individuals, experimental treatments, populations), while also characterizing the uncertainty of these estimates in ways inaccessible to frequentist methods. The Bayesian hierarchical approach provides a useful framework for improving the quantification and understanding of intraspecific variation in diet specialization studies.

Bayesian characterization of uncertainty in species interaction strengths.

Considerable effort has been devoted to the estimation of species interaction strengths. This effort has focused primarily on statistical significance testing and obtaining point estimates of parameters that contribute to interaction strength magnitudes, leaving the characterization of uncertainty associated with those estimates unconsidered. We consider a means of characterizing the uncertainty of a generalist predator's interaction strengths by formulating an observational method for estimating a predator's prey-specific per capita attack rates as a Bayesian statistical model. This formulation permits the explicit incorporation of multiple sources of uncertainty. A key insight is the informative nature of several so-called non-informative priors that have been used in modeling the sparse data typical of predator feeding surveys. We introduce to ecology a new neutral prior and provide evidence for its superior performance. We use a case study to consider the attack rates in a New Zealand intertidal whelk predator, and we illustrate not only that Bayesian point estimates can be made to correspond with those obtained by frequentist approaches, but also that estimation uncertainty as described by 95% intervals is more useful and biologically realistic using the Bayesian method. In particular, unlike in bootstrap confidence intervals, the lower bounds of the Bayesian posterior intervals for attack rates do not include zero when a predator-prey interaction is in fact observed. We conclude that the Bayesian framework provides a straightforward, probabilistic characterization of interaction strength uncertainty, enabling future considerations of both the deterministic and stochastic drivers of interaction strength and their impact on food webs.

Investigation of and Response to 2 Plague Cases, Yosemite National Park, California, USA, 2015.

In August 2015, plague was diagnosed for 2 persons who had visited Yosemite National Park in California, USA. One case was septicemic and the other bubonic. Subsequent environmental investigation identified probable locations of exposure for each patient and evidence of epizootic plague in other areas of the park. Transmission of Yersinia pestis was detected by testing rodent serum, fleas, and rodent carcasses. The environmental investigation and whole-genome multilocus sequence typing of Y. pestis isolates from the patients and environmental samples indicated that the patients had been exposed in different locations and that at least 2 distinct strains of Y. pestis were circulating among vector-host populations in the area. Public education efforts and insecticide applications in select areas to control rodent fleas probably reduced the risk for plague transmission to park visitors and staff.

Complexity Increases Predictability in Allometrically Constrained Food Webs.

All ecosystems are subjected to chronic disturbances, such as harvest, pollution, and climate change. The capacity to forecast how species respond to such press perturbations is limited by our imprecise knowledge of pairwise species interaction strengths and the many direct and indirect pathways along which perturbations can propagate between species. Network complexity (size and connectance) has thereby been seen to limit the predictability of ecological systems. Here we demonstrate a counteracting mechanism in which the influence of indirect effects declines with increasing network complexity when species interactions are governed by universal allometric constraints. With these constraints, network size and connectance interact to produce a skewed distribution of interaction strengths whose skew becomes more pronounced with increasing complexity. Together, the increased prevalence of weak interactions and the increased relative strength and rarity of strong interactions in complex networks limit disturbance propagation and preserve the qualitative predictability of net effects even when pairwise interaction strengths exhibit substantial variation or uncertainty.

Timescales alter the inferred strength and temporal consistency of intraspecific diet specialization.

Many populations consist of individuals that differ substantially in their diets. Quantification of the magnitude and temporal consistency of such intraspecific diet variation is needed to understand its importance, but the extent to which different approaches for doing so reflect instantaneous vs. time-aggregated measures of individual diets may bias inferences. We used direct observations of sea otter individuals (Enhydra lutris nereis) to assess how: (1) the timescale of sampling, (2) under-sampling, and (3) the incidence- vs. frequency-based consideration of prey species affect the inferred strength and consistency of intraspecific diet variation. Analyses of feeding observations aggregated over hourly to annual intervals revealed a substantial bias associated with time aggregation that decreases the inferred magnitude of specialization and increases the inferred consistency of individuals' diets. Time aggregation also made estimates of specialization more sensitive to the consideration of prey frequency, which decreased estimates relative to the use of prey incidence; time aggregation did not affect the extent to which under-sampling contributed to its overestimation. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of studying intraspecific diet variation with an explicit consideration of time and thereby suggest guidelines for future empirical efforts. Failure to consider time will likely produce inconsistent predictions regarding the effects of intraspecific variation on predator-prey interactions.

Hantavirus infections among overnight visitors to Yosemite National Park, California, USA, 2012.

In summer 2012, an outbreak of hantavirus infections occurred among overnight visitors to Yosemite National Park in California, USA. An investigation encompassing clinical, epidemiologic, laboratory, and environmental factors identified 10 cases among residents of 3 states. Eight case-patients experienced hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, of whom 5 required intensive care with ventilatory support and 3 died. Staying overnight in a signature tent cabin (9 case-patients) was significantly associated with becoming infected with hantavirus (p<0.001). Rodent nests and tunnels were observed in the foam insulation of the cabin walls. Rodent trapping in the implicated area resulted in high trap success rate (51%), and antibodies reactive to Sin Nombre virus were detected in 10 (14%) of 73 captured deer mice. All signature tent cabins were closed and subsequently dismantled. Continuous public awareness and rodent control and exclusion are key measures in minimizing the risk for hantavirus infection in areas inhabited by deer mice.

Novel computational study on π-stacking to understand mechanistic interactions of Tryptanthrin analogues with DNA.

Based on recently published initial experimental results on the intercalation of a class of broad spectrum antiparasitic compounds, we present a purely theoretical approach for determining if these compounds may preferentially intercalate with guanosine/cytosine (GC)-rich or adenosine/thymidine (TA)-rich regions of DNA. The predictive model presented herein is based upon utilization of density functional theory (DFT) to determine a priori how the best intercalator may energetically and sterically interact with each of the nucleoside base pairs. A potential new method using electrostatic potential maps (EPMs) to visually select the best poses is introduced and compared to the existing brute-force center of mass (COM) approach. The EPM and COM predictions are in agreement with each other, but the EPM method is potentially much more efficient. We report that 4-azatryptantrin, the best intercalator, is predicted to favor π-stacking with GC over that of TA by approximately 2-4 kcal/mol. This represents a significant difference if one takes into account the Boltzmann distribution at physiological temperature. This theoretical method will be utilized to guide future experimental studies on the elucidation of possible mechanism(s) for the action of these antiparasitic compounds at the molecular level.

Trophic omnivory across a productivity gradient: intraguild predation theory and the structure and strength of species interactions.

Intraguild predation theory centres on two predictions: (i) for an omnivore and an intermediate predator (IG-prey) to coexist on shared resources, the IG-prey must be the superior resource competitor, and (ii) increasing resource productivity causes the IG-prey's equilibrium abundance to decline. I tested these predictions with a series of species-rich food webs along New Zealand's rocky shores, focusing on two predatory whelks, Haustrum haustorium, a trophic omnivore, and Haustrum scobina, the IG-prey. In contrast to theory, the IG-prey's abundance increased with productivity. Furthermore, feeding rates and allometric considerations indicate a competitive advantage for the omnivore when non-shared prey are considered, despite the IG-prey's superiority for shared prey. Nevertheless, clear and regular cross-gradient changes in network structure and interaction strengths were observed that challenge the assumptions of current theory. These insights suggest that the consideration of consumer-dependent functional responses, non-equilibrium dynamics, the dynamic nature of prey choice and non-trophic interactions among basal prey will be fruitful avenues for theoretical development.

High variation in handling times confers 35-year stability to predator feeding rates despite community change.

Historical resurveys of ecological communities are important for placing the structure of modern ecosystems in context. Rarely, however, are snapshot surveys alone sufficient for providing direct insight into the rates of the ecological processes underlying community functioning, either now or in the past. In this study, I used a statistically reasoned observational approach to estimate the feeding rates of a New Zealand intertidal predator, Haustrum haustorium, using diet surveys performed at several sites by Robert Paine in 1968-1969 and by me in 2004. Comparisons between time periods reveal a remarkable consistency in the predator's prey-specific feeding rates, which contrasts with the changes I observed in prey abundances, the predator's body-size distribution, and the prey's proportional contributions to the predator's apparent diet. Although these and additional changes in the predator's per-capita attack rates seem to show adaptive changes in its prey preferences, they do not. Rather, feeding-rate stability is an inherently statistical consequence of the predator's high among-prey variation in handling times which determine the length of time that feeding events will remain detectable to observers performing diet surveys. Though understudied, similarly high among-prey variation in handling (or digestion) times is evident in many predator species throughout the animal kingdom. The resultant disconnect between a predator's apparent diet and its actual feeding rates suggests that much of the temporal, biogeographic, and seemingly context-dependent variation that is often perceived in community structure, predator diets, and food-web topology may be of less functional consequence than assumed. Qualitative changes in ecological pattern need not represent qualitative changes in ecological process.

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters.

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for 'core' resources was more consistent with the 'competitive refuge' model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.