Budget impact analysis of venetoclax for the management of acute myeloid leukemia from the perspective of the social security and the private sector in Argentina.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the budget impact of the incorporation of venetoclax for the treatment of patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) over 75 years of age or those with comorbidities and contraindications for the use of intensive chemotherapy, from the perspective of the social security and the private third-party payers in Argentina. METHODS: A budget impact model was adapted to estimate the cost difference between the current scenario (azacitidine, decitabine and low doses of cytarabine) and the new scenario (incorporation of venetoclax) for a third-party payer over a time horizon of three years. Input parameters were obtained from a literature review, validated or complemented by expert opinion using a modified Panel Delphi approach. All direct medical costs were estimated by the micro-costing approach and were expressed in US dollars (USD) as of September 2020 (1 USD = 76.18 Argentine pesos). RESULTS: For a third-party payer with a cohort of 1,000,000 individuals covered, incorporating venetoclax was associated with an average budget impact per-member per-month (PMPM) of $0.11 USD for the social security sector and $0.07 USD for the private sector. The duration of treatment with venetoclax was the most influential parameter in the budget impact results. CONCLUSION: The introduction of venetoclax was associated with a positive and slight budget impact. These findings are informative to support policy decisions aimed to expand the current treatment landscape of AML.

Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: A microsimulation model.

Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented of the WHO MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs, and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63,000 premature deaths and 427,000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5) -MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-, representing 0.8% of GDP. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49,000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy both for gaining population health as well as reducing tobacco societal costs.

Exploring gender disparities in the disease and economic tobacco-attributable burden in Latin America.

Introduction: Tobacco use has significant health consequences in Latin America, and while studies have examined the overall impact, the gender-specific effects have not been thoroughly researched. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective tobacco control policies. The objective of this study was to explore the differences in tobacco-attributable disease and economic burden between men and women in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru. Methods: We used a previously validated economic model to quantify the impact of tobacco-related illnesses, including morbidity, mortality, healthcare costs, productivity losses, informal care expenses, and DALYs, by gender and age. We utilized data from national surveys, records, studies, and expert opinions to populate the model. Results: In 2020, there were 351,000 smoking-attributable deaths. Men accounted for 69% and women 31%. Ecuador and Mexico had the highest male-to-female death ratio, while Peru and Chile had the smallest disparities. 2.3 million tobacco-related disease events occurred, with 65% in men and 35% in women. Ecuador and Mexico had higher disease rates among men, while Peru had a more balanced ratio. Regarding DALYs, men lost 6.3 million due to tobacco, while women lost 3.3 million, primarily from COPD, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Brazil and Mexico had the highest DALY losses for both genders. Costa Rica had a lower male-to-female tobacco use prevalence ratio but ranked second in deaths, disease events, and DALYs attributed to tobacco. Colombia had a unique pattern with a male-to-female death ratio of 2.08 but a higher ratio for disease events. The health systems spent $22.8 billion to treat tobacco-attributable diseases, with a male-to-female cost ratio 2.15. Ecuador showed the greatest gender cost difference, while Peru had the lowest. Productivity loss due to tobacco was $16.2 billion, with Ecuador and Mexico exhibiting the highest gender disparities and Peru the lowest. Informal care costs amounted to $10.8 billion, with men incurring higher costs in Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Mexico. Discussion: Tobacco causes significant health and economic burdens in Latin America, with gender-based differences. There is a need for gender-disaggregated data to improve tobacco control policies.

Health and economic burden of sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in Brazil.

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Daily calcium supplements are recommended for pregnant women from 20 weeks' gestation to prevent pre-eclampsia in populations with low dietary calcium intake. We aimed to improve understanding of barriers and facilitators for calcium supplement intake during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia. DESIGN: Mixed-method systematic review, with confidence assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations-Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research approach. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and EMBASE (via Ovid), CINAHL and Global Health (via EBSCO) and grey literature databases were searched up to 17 September 2022. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included primary qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods studies reporting implementation or use of calcium supplements during pregnancy, excluding calcium fortification and non-primary studies. No restrictions were imposed on settings, language or publication date. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We analysed the qualitative data using thematic synthesis, and quantitative findings were thematically mapped to qualitative findings. We then mapped the results to behavioural change frameworks to identify barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: Eighteen reports from nine studies were included in this review. Women reported barriers to consuming calcium supplements included limited knowledge about calcium supplements and pre-eclampsia, fears and experiences of side effects, varying preferences for tablets, dosing, working schedules, being away from home and taking other supplements. Receiving information regarding pre-eclampsia and safety of calcium supplement use from reliable sources, alternative dosing options, supplement reminders, early antenatal care, free supplements and support from families and communities were reported as facilitators. Healthcare providers felt that consistent messaging about benefits and risks of calcium, training, and ensuring adequate staffing and calcium supply is available would be able to help them in promoting calcium. CONCLUSION: Relevant stakeholders should consider the identified barriers and facilitators when formulating interventions and policies on calcium supplement use. These review findings can inform implementation to ensure effective and equitable provision and scale-up of calcium interventions. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021239143.

Carga de enfermedad y económica atribuible al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador / Burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador / Carga de morbidade e econômica atribuível ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador

RESUMEN Objetivo. Estimar la carga de enfermedad y económica atribuible al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador. Métodos. Se utilizó un modelo de riesgos comparativos para estimar los efectos en muertes, eventos de salud, años perdidos por muerte prematura y discapacidad (AVAD), y costos médicos directos atribuibles al consumo de bebidas azucaradas. Resultados. Un total de 520 muertes (8 cada 100 000 individuos), 214 082 eventos en salud (3 220 cada 100 000 individuos) y 16 643 AVAD podrían ser atribuibles al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador, lo que representa $69,35 millones (dólar americano) en costos médicos directos para el año 2020. En particular, los eventos de diabetes tipo 2 (DBT2) atribuibles al consumo de bebidas azucaradas podrían llegar a representar más del 20% del total de casos de DBT2 para el país. Conclusión. Un elevado número de muertes, eventos y costos podrían atribuirse al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador.

ABSTRACT Objective. To estimate the burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador. Methods. A comparative risk model was used to estimate the effects on deaths, health events, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and direct medical costs attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Results. A total of 520 deaths (8 per 100 000 individuals), 214 082 health events (3 220 per 100 000 individuals) and 16 643 DALYs could be attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador, representing US$69.35 million in direct medical costs for the year 2020. In particular, type 2 diabetes (T2DM) events attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages could represent more than 20% of total T2DM cases in the country. Conclusion. A high number of deaths, events, and costs could be attributed to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar a carga de morbidade e econômica atribuível ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador. Métodos. Foi utilizado um modelo de risco comparativo para estimar os efeitos sobre óbitos, eventos de saúde, anos perdidos devido a morte prematura ou vividos com incapacidade (AVAI) e custos médicos diretos atribuíveis ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas. Resultados. Um total de 520 mortes (8 por 100 00 indivíduos), 214 082 eventos de saúde (3 220 por 100 000 indivíduos) e 16 643 AVAI podem ser atribuídos ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador, o que representa US$ 69,35 milhões em custos médicos diretos para o ano de 2020. Os eventos de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (DM2) atribuíveis ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas, em especial, podem representar mais de 20% do total de casos de DM2 no país. Conclusões. Um número elevado de mortes, eventos de saúde e custos pode ser atribuído ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador.

Health and economic burden of sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in Brazil / Carga sanitaria y económica del consumo de bebidas azucaradas en Brasil / Carga sanitária e econômica do consumo de bebidas açucaradas no Brasil

Abstract: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

Resumen: Las bebidas azucaradas (BA) tienen una gran fuente de azúcar añadido y están asociadas con enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT), como la obesidad y la diabetes. Este estudio evaluó el impacto del consumo de las BA en la carga de enfermedad en Brasil, incluidas las muertes, los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD) y los costos con la salud. Con el uso de una metodología de tres etapas, se evaluaron los efectos directos de las BA sobre la diabetes, las enfermedades cardiovasculares y el índice de masa corporal (IMC), la influencia del IMC en la incidencia de la enfermedad, y se estimó la carga económica y de salud utilizando los factores atribuibles a la población. Los resultados mostraron que el 2,7% de los casos de sobrepeso/obesidad en adultos y del 11% en niños fueron atribuibles a las BA. El consumo de las BA en Brasil generó 1.814.486 casos, 12.942 muertes, 362.088 AVAD y USD 2.915,91 millones en costos médicos relacionados con diabetes, enfermedades cardiovasculares, enfermedades oncológicas y otras ENT. Es necesario implementar políticas públicas para tratar el consumo de las BA, reconocido este como un factor de riesgo clave para las ENT.

Resumo: As bebidas açucaradas (BAs) são uma grande fonte de açúcar adicionado e estão associadas a doenças não transmissíveis (DNTs), como obesidade e diabetes. Este estudo avaliou o impacto do consumo de BAs sobre a carga de doenças no Brasil, incluindo óbitos, anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (AVPIs) e custos de saúde. Usando uma metodologia de três estágios, examinamos os efeitos diretos das BAs sobre diabetes, doenças cardiovasculares e índice de massa corporal (IMC), a influência do IMC na incidência de doenças e estimamos o carga econômica e de saúde usando fatores atribuíveis à população. Os resultados mostraram que 2,7% dos casos de sobrepeso/obesidade em adultos e 11% em crianças foram atribuíveis a BAs. O consumo de BAs no Brasil levou a 1.814.486 casos, 12.942 mortes, 362.088 AVPIs e USD 2.915,91 milhões em custos médicos relacionados a diabetes, doenças cardiovasculares, doenças oncológicas e outras DNT. A implementação urgente de políticas públicas é crucial para enfrentar o consumo de BAs, reconhecido como um fator de risco fundamental para as DNT.

¿Qué necesita nuestra región para fortalecer políticas públicas sobre bebidas azucaradas? diálogo de decisores / What does our region need in order to strengthen public policies on sugar-sweetened beverages? decision-makers' dialogue

Con el objetivo de priorizar políticas públicas para disminuir el consumo de bebidas azucaradas en Argentina, Brasil, El Salvador y Trinidad y Tobago e identificar las necesidades de información relacionadas con la carga de enfermedad atribuible a su consumo se realizó un diálogo de políticas en el que participaron miembros de gobierno, organizaciones de la sociedad civil, investigadores y comunicadores de países de Latinoamérica y el Caribe. Se llevaron a cabo exposiciones y talleres deliberativos utilizándose herramientas de recolección de datos semiestructuradas y discusiones grupales facilitadas. Las intervenciones priorizadas fueron el incremento de impuestos, el etiquetado frontal, la restricción de la publicidad, promoción y patrocinio y las modificaciones del entorno escolar. La principal barrera percibida fue la interferencia de la industria alimentaria. La realización de este diálogo de decisores permitió la identificación de las políticas públicas prioritarias para disminuir el consumo de bebidas azucaradas en la región.

In order to prioritize public policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago and to identify information gaps related to the burden of disease attributable to their consumption, a policy dialogue was held with government members, civil society organizations, researchers and communicators from Latin American and Caribbean countries. Presentations and deliberative workshops were conducted using semi-structured data collection tools and group discussions. The prioritized interventions were tax increases, front labeling, restriction of advertising, promotion and sponsorship, and modifications regarding the school environment. The main perceived barrier was the interference from the food industry. This dialogue among decision-makers led to the identification of priority public policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in the region.

Intercambio desde los cigarrillos convencionales a los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina: revisión sistemática rápida con metaanálisis y aspectos económicos / Switching from cigarettes to electronic nicotine delivery system: rapid systematic review and meta-analysis and economic aspects

RESUMEN Objetivos. Evaluar cómo y en qué medida se produce un intercambio desde los cigarrillos convencionales (CC) a los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina (SEAN). Materiales y métodos. Se realizó una revisión sistemática hasta agosto de 2019. El desenlace primario fue la proporción de un intercambio completo o parcial de CC a los SEAN y sus aspectos económicos. Los desenlaces secundarios como medidas de resultado fueron la probabilidad de intercambio y la tendencia en el intercambio por países. Resultados. Se encontraron 3628 referencias y se incluyeron 49 estudios con datos epidemiológicos y económicos. Los estudios económicos sobre la elasticidad cruzada de precios mostraron que los CC son parcialmente intercambiables por SEAN. La mayoría de los estudios reportaron que la prevalencia del consumo de cigarrillos electrónicos se incrementó con el tiempo. Tres estudios reportaron una reducción significativa de los CC consumidos por día entre fumadores duales (convencionales más SEAN) en comparación con los consumidores de CC. El odds ratio ajustado y combinado de dejar los CC entre consumidores de SEAN en comparación con quienes nunca consumieron o lo hicieron en el pasado fue de 1,19 (IC95%: 1,09-1,30; heterogeneidad 0%). Los estudios longitudinales mostraron una creciente prevalencia del uso de cigarrillos electrónicos, principalmente en adolescentes. Se encontró una relación negativa entre el consumo y aumento de precio de CC y electrónicos. Conclusión. La probabilidad de dejar de fumar CC entre consumidores habituales de SEAN se incrementó respecto a los consumidores que nunca o que solían consumir SEAN. Estudios económicos reportaron que los cigarrillos electrónicos son parcialmente intercambiables por los CC.

ABSTRACT Objectives. To assess how and in what extent the electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use substituted the consumption of traditional combustible cigarettes (c-cigarettes, c-cig). Materials and Methods. We performed a systematic review of the literature up to August 2019 in scientific databases. Primary outcomes were proportion of complete or partial substitution of conventional to electronic cigarettes and related economic aspects. Secondary outcomes were odds ratio of substitution and country-wise time trends. Results. We retrieved 3,628 references and included 49 studies, providing economic and epidemiological data. Economic studies of cross-price elasticity showed that combustible cigarettes are partially substitutable for electronic cigarettes. Most studies reported that electronic cigarettes consumption prevalence increased over time. Three studies reported a significant reduction of combustible cigarettes consumed per day among dual users (combustible- plus electronic- cigarettes users) versus combustible-cigarettes users. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of quitting combustible cigarettes among electronic cigarettes users versus never or past electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes, e-cig) users was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.30; heterogeneity score 0%). Longitudinal studies showed globally a growing prevalence of electronic cigarettes use, mainly in adolescents. A negative relationship between consumption and price increase of electronic and combustible cigarettes was found. Conclusion. The chance of quitting smoking combustible cigarettes among current electronic nicotine delivery systems users was increased with respect to never- or past- electronic nicotine delivery systems users. Economic studies reported that electronic cigarette is partially substitutable for combustible cigarettes.

Caracterización de aspectos económicos, jurídico legales y epidemiológicos útiles para impulsar una agenda publica orientada a disminuir el consumo de alcohol en Argentina / Characterization of Economic, Legal and Epidemiological Aspects Useful to Promote a Public Agenda Aimed at Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Argentina

NTRODUCCIÓN: El consumo de alcohol es uno de los principales factores de riesgo. Para relevar las condiciones previas al establecimiento de políticas públicas orientadas a disminuir el consumo de alcohol en Argentina, se fijaron tres objetivos: a) caracterizar la demanda y oferta de bebidas alcohólicas; b) evaluar la situación normativa respecto de políticas de control de publicidad, promoción y patrocinio, y las pautas de publicidad televisiva; c) definir qué modelos de carga de enfermedad atribuible y costo-efectividad de las intervenciones podrían ser aplicables. MÉTODOS: Se analizaron datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Gasto de los Hogares 2004/5 y 2012/3 y de la base Euromonitor Internacional. Se examinaron el marco normativo y las acciones televisivas de publicidad, promoción y patrocinio. Se revisó la literatura sobre modelos de carga de enfermedad y costo-efectividad de intervenciones. RESULTADOS: El consumo de bebidas alcohólicas no se modificó entre 2004/5 y 2012/3, y la industria está muy concentrada. El marco de regulación de la publicidad es laxo; más de la mitad de los avisos de TV se emiten en horario diurno, por lo que se expone a menores y se incumplen los acuerdos internacionales subscritos. Hay tres enfoques principales de modelamiento epidemiológico y económico que podrían ser aplicables. CONCLUSIONES: Se caracterizaron aspectos económicos, jurídico-legales y epidemiológicos útiles para impulsar una agenda pública orientada a disminuir el consumo de alcohol

Carga do tabagismo no Brasil e benefício potencial do aumento de impostos sobre os cigarros para a economia e para a redução de mortes e adoecimento / Carga del tabaquismo en Brasil y beneficio potencial del aumento de impuestos sobre el tabaco para la economía y para la reducción de muertes por enfermedad / Burden of smoking in Brazil and potential benefit of increasing taxes on cigarettes for the economy and for reducing morbidity and mortality

A prevalência do tabagismo no Brasil reduziu sobremaneira nas últimas décadas, mas o país ainda tem uma elevada carga de doença associada a este fator de risco. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a carga de mortalidade, morbidade e custos para a sociedade associada ao tabagismo em 2015 e o potencial impacto gerado em desfechos de saúde e para a economia a partir do aumento de preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos. Foram desenvolvidos dois modelos: o primeiro é um modelo matemático baseado em uma microssimulação probabilística de milhares de indivíduos usando-se coortes hipotéticas que considerou a história natural, custos e a qualidade de vida destes indivíduos. O segundo é um modelo de impostos aplicado para estimar o benefício econômico e em desfechos de saúde de diferentes cenários de aumento de preços em 10 anos. O tabagismo foi responsável por 156.337 mortes, 4,2 milhões de anos de vida perdidos, 229.071 infartos agudos do miocárdio, 59.509 acidentes vasculares cerebrais e 77.500 diagnósticos de câncer. O custo total foi de R$ 56,9 bilhões, dos quais 70% corresponderam ao custo direto associado à assistência à saúde e o restante ao custo indireto devido à perda de produtividade por morte prematura e incapacidade. Um aumento de 50% do preço do cigarro evitaria 136.482 mortes, 507.451 casos de doenças cardiovasculares, 64.382 de casos de câncer e 100.365 acidentes vasculares cerebrais. O benefício econômico estimado seria de R$ 97,9 bilhões. Concluiu-se que a carga da doença e econômica associada ao tabagismo é elevada no Brasil e o aumento de impostos é capaz de evitar mortes, adoecimento e custos para a sociedade.

La prevalencia del tabaquismo en Brasil se redujo sobremanera en las últimas décadas, pero el país todavía cuenta con una elevada carga de enfermedad asociada a este factor de riesgo. El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar la carga de mortalidad, morbilidad y costes para la sociedad, asociada al tabaquismo en 2015, y el impacto potencial generado en los desenlaces de salud y para la economía a partir del aumento de precios del tabaco a través de impuestos. Se desarrollaron dos modelos: el primero es un modelo matemático, basado en una microsimulación probabilística de millares de individuos, a través de cohortes hipotéticas, que consideró la historia natural, costes y calidad de vida de esos individuos. El segundo se trata de un modelo de impuestos aplicado para estimar el beneficio económico y en desenlaces de salud de diferentes escenarios con el aumento de precios durante 10 años. El tabaquismo fue responsable de 156.337 muertes, 4,2 millones de años de vida perdidos, 229.071 infartos agudos de miocardio, 59.509 accidentes vasculares cerebrales y 77.500 diagnósticos de cáncer. El coste total fue de BRL 56,9 billones (USD 14,7 billones), de los cuales un 70% correspondieron al coste directo asociado a la asistencia a la salud y lo restante al coste indirecto, debido a la pérdida de productividad por muerte prematura e incapacidad. Un aumento de un 50% del precio del tabaco evitaría 136.482 muertes, 507.451 casos de enfermedades cardiovasculares, 64.382 de casos de cáncer y 100.365 accidentes vasculares cerebrales. El beneficio económico estimado sería de BRL 97,9 billones (USD 25,5 billones). Se concluyó que la carga de la enfermedad y económica asociada al tabaquismo es elevada en Brasil y el aumento de impuestos es capaz de evitar muertes, enfermedad y costes para la sociedad.

The prevalence of smoking in Brazil has decreased considerably in recent decades, but the country still has a high burden of disease associated with this risk factor. The study aimed to estimate the burden of mortality, morbidity, and costs for society associated with smoking in 2015 and the potential impact on health outcomes and the economy based on price increases for cigarettes through taxes. Two models were developed: the first is a mathematical model based on a probabilistic microsimulation of thousands of individuals using hypothetical cohorts that considered the natural history, costs, and quality of life of these individuals. The second is a tax model applied to estimate the economic benefit and health outcomes in different price increase scenarios in 10 years. Smoking was responsible for 156,337 deaths, 4.2 million years of potential life lost, 229,071 acute myocardial infarctions, 59,509 strokes, and 77,500 cancer diagnoses. The total cost was BRL 56.9 billion (USD 14.7 billion), with 70% corresponding to the direct cost associated with healthcare and the rest to indirect cost due to lost productivity from premature death and disability. A 50% increase in cigarette prices would avoid 136,482 deaths, 507,451 cases of cardiovascular diseases, 64,382 cases of cancer, and 100,365 cases of stroke. The estimated economic benefit would be BRL 97.9 billion (USD 25.5 billion). In conclusion, the burden of disease and economic losses associated with smoking is high in Brazil, and tax increases are capable of averting deaths, illness, and costs to society.

Carga de enfermedad atribuible al uso del tabaco en Paraguay y potencial impacto sanitario y económico del aumento del precio a través de impuestos / Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Paraguay, and potential health and financial impact of increasing prices through taxing

RESUMEN Objetivos. Estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al consumo de tabaco en Paraguay y evaluar el potencial efecto económico y sanitario del aumento de precio mediante impuestos. Materiales y métodos. Se diseñó un modelo de microsimulación de Monte Carlo que incorporó la historia natural, costos y calidad de vida de enfermedades asociadas al tabaquismo para el 2015. Asimismo, se estimó el impacto en varios escenarios de aumento de impuestos sobre la prevalencia de tabaquismo y la recaudación fiscal. Resultados. 3354 personas mueren al año en Paraguay por consecuencia del tabaquismo. El 19 % de las muertes son por enfermedad isquémica cardíaca, el 15 % por accidentes cerebrovasculares. El 77 % de las muertes por enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el 83 % de cáncer de pulmón son atribuibles al tabaquismo. Estas enfermedades en Paraguay representan un costo médico directo anual de más de 1,5 x 106 millones de guaraníes, mientras la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas llega a cubrir un 20 % de este gasto. Un aumento en el precio de los cigarrillos del 50 % vía impuestos, podría llevar a evitar 2507 muertes en diez años y generar recursos por 2,4 x 106 millones por ahorro en gastos sanitarios y aumento de recaudación. Conclusiones. El costo y la carga de enfermedad asociado al consumo de tabaco en el sistema de salud es elevado en Paraguay. Un aumento del precio de los cigarrillos a través de los impuestos tendría importantes beneficios sanitarios y podría compensar parcialmente los costos sanitarios.

ABSTRACT Objectives . To consider the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption in Paraguay and to evaluate the potential economic and health effect of price increase through taxes. Materials and Methods . A Monte Carlo simulation model was designed incorporating natural history, costs, and quality of life of diseases associated to smoking for 2015. Also, several scenarios were considered for the impact of tax raises on the prevalence of smoking and fiscal collection. Results . In Paraguay, 3,354 people die every year as a consequence of smoking. Nineteen percent of deaths are due to cardiac ischemia, 15% due to stroke. 77% of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 83% of lung cancer can be attributed to smoking. These diseases in Paraguay represent an annual direct medical cost of more than 1.5 trillion PYG, while the tax collection from cigarette sales barely covers 20% of this expense. A 50% increase in the price of cigarettes via taxes could avoid 2507 deaths in ten years and generate resources by 2.4 trillion in savings in health expenses and tax of collection. Conclusions . The cost and the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption is high in the health system in Paraguay. An increase in cigarette price through taxes could have significant health benefits and could offset health costs in part.