An Internally Validated Prognostic Risk-Score Model for Disease-Specific Survival in Clinical Stage I and II Merkel Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare cutaneous malignancy for which factors predictive of disease-specific survival (DSS) are poorly defined. METHODS: Patients from six centers (2005-2020) with clinical stage I-II MCC who underwent sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy were included. Factors associated with DSS were identified using competing-risks regression analysis. Risk-score modeling was established using competing-risks regression on a training dataset and internally validated by point assignment to variables. RESULTS: Of 604 patients, 474 (78.5%) and 128 (21.2%) patients had clinical stage I and II disease, respectively, and 189 (31.3%) had SLN metastases. The 5-year DSS rate was 81.8% with a median follow-up of 31 months. Prognostic factors associated with worse DSS included increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, p = 0.046), male sex (HR 3.21, p = 0.021), immune compromise (HR 2.46, p = 0.013), presence of microsatellites (HR 2.65, p = 0.041), and regional nodal involvement (1 node: HR 2.48, p = 0.039; ≥2 nodes: HR 2.95, p = 0.026). An internally validated, risk-score model incorporating all of these factors was developed with good performance (AUC 0.738). Patients with ≤ 4.00 and > 4.00 points had 5-year DSS rates of 89.4% and 67.2%, respectively. Five-year DSS for pathologic stage I/II patients with > 4.00 points (n = 49) was 79.8% and for pathologic stage III patients with ≤ 4.00 points (n = 62) was 90.3%. CONCLUSIONS: A risk-score model, including patient and tumor factors, based on DSS improves prognostic assessment of patients with clinically localized MCC. This may inform surveillance strategies and patient selection for adjuvant therapy trials.

Predictors of False Negative Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Clinically Localized Merkel Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is routinely recommended for clinically localized Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC); however, predictors of false negative (FN) SLNB are undefined. METHODS: Patients from six centers undergoing wide excision and SLNB for stage I/II MCC (2005-2020) were identified and were classified as having either a true positive (TP), true negative (TN) or FN SLNB. Predictors of FN SLNB were identified and survival outcomes were estimated. RESULTS: Of 525 patients, 28 (5.4%), 329 (62.7%), and 168 (32%) were classified as FN, TN, and TP, respectively, giving an FN rate of 14.3% and negative predictive value of 92.2% for SLNB. Median follow-up for SLNB-negative patients was 27 months, and median time to nodal recurrence for FN patients was 7 months. Male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 3.15, p = 0.034) and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (HR 2.22, p = 0.048) significantly correlated with FN, and increasing age trended toward significance (HR 1.04, p = 0.067). The 3-year regional nodal recurrence-free survival for males >75 years with LVI was 78.5% versus 97.4% for females ≤75 years without LVI (p = 0.009). Five-year disease-specific survival (90.9% TN vs. 51.3% FN, p < 0.001) and overall survival (69.9% TN vs. 48.1% FN, p = 0.035) were significantly worse for FN patients. CONCLUSION: Failure to detect regional nodal microscopic disease by SLNB is associated with worse survival in clinically localized MCC. Males, patients >75 years, and those with LVI may be at increased risk for FN SLNB. Consideration of increased nodal surveillance following negative SLNB in these high-risk patients may aid in early identification of regional nodal recurrences.

An analysis of the use of targeted therapies in patients with advanced Merkel cell carcinoma and an evaluation of genomic correlates of response.

BACKGROUND: The use of targeted therapy remains a treatment consideration for some patients with advanced Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). However, supportive data on the use of targeted therapy approaches are limited. Thus, we sought to evaluate the responsiveness of targeted agents in patients with advanced MCC. METHODS: An institutional MCC database identified patients who were treated with targeted therapy. For the purpose of this study, targeted therapy was defined as any multi-targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor or inhibitor of the PI3K-pathway. Clinical benefit was defined as complete response, partial response, or stable disease (SD) ≥6 months. A subset of patient samples underwent next-generation sequencing (NGS), Merkel cell polyomavirus testing, and PD-L1/PD-1 expression testing. RESULTS: Nineteen patients with MCC treated with targeted therapy were identified, 21 targeted therapy regimens were evaluable for response in 18 patients. Four of twenty-one (19%) of evaluable regimens were associated with clinical benefit with the best overall response of SD. The durations of SD were 13.6 months (59 weeks), 9.7 months (42 weeks), 7.6 months (33 weeks), and 7.2 months (31 weeks). Of the four patients who derived clinical benefit, three were treated with pazopanib alone and one was treated with pazopanib plus everolimus. No difference in the rate of clinical benefit between molecular disease subtypes was detected nor was associated with any specific genomic alteration. CONCLUSION: In our series, targeted agents elicited a disease control rate of 19% in patients with advanced MCC, with a best overall response of SD. Pazopanib alone or in combination exhibited a rate of disease control of 36% (4 of 11 with SD ≥6 months).