A comparison of the quality of images of chest X-ray between handheld portable digital X-ray & routinely used digital X-ray machine.

Background & objectives: Chest X-ray (CXR) is an important screening tool for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). Accessibility to CXR facilities in difficult-to-reach and underserved populations is a challenge. This can potentially be overcome by deploying digital X-ray machines that are portable. However, these portable X-ray machines need to be validated before their deployment in the field. Here, we compare the image quality of CXR taken by a newly developed handheld X-ray machine with routinely used reference digital X-ray machine through the conduct of a feasibility study. Methods: A total of 100 participants with suspected pulmonary TB were recruited from the outpatient departments of a medical college and a community health centre in Agra. Each participant underwent CXR twice, once with each machine. Both sets of de-identified images were independently read by two radiologists, who were blinded to the type of X-ray machine used. The primary outcome was agreement between image qualities produced by these two machines. Results: The intra-observer (radiologist) agreements regarding the status of the 15 CXR parameters ranged between 74 per cent and 100 per cent, with an unweighted mean of 87.2 per cent (95% confidence interval: 71.5-100). The median Cohen's kappa values for intra-observer agreement were 0.62 and 0.67 for radiologists 1 and 2, respectively. In addition, on comparison of the overall median score of quality of the image, the handheld machine images had a higher score for image quality. Interpretation & conclusions: The current study shows that a handheld X-ray machine, which is easy to use and can potentially be carried to any area, produces X-ray images with quality that is comparable to digital X-ray machines routinely used in health facilities.

Metabolic syndrome in people living with antiretroviral therapy: A cross-sectional investigation from Pune, India.

Background: Improved longevity of people living with HIV on highly active antiretroviral therapy and accelerated aging processes are considered contributory to Metabolic Syndrome. Objectives: The current study investigated metabolic syndrome (MetS) in people living with HIV (PLH) who were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) under the ongoing National AIDS Control Program. Methods: Clinic attendees (n = 3088) who were on ART for more than 6 months constituted the sampling frame, from which 378 study participants were randomly drawn and included in the analysis following the eligibility check. One hundred and fifty-nine clinic attendees, initiated on ART in ≤6 months, provided an opportunity to estimate the prevalence of MetS in them. Sixty-two PLH from this smaller group were enrolled. Results: MetS was found among 19% (73/378; 95% confidence interval [CI] 15.5%-23.7%) PLH who were on ART >6 months compared with 24% (15/62; 95% CI 14.2%-36.7%) in those who were on ART for ≤6 months based on harmonization criteria for the Asian population; the confidence intervals overlapped and apparently observed difference was not statistically significant. Adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), protease inhibitor (PI)-based ART regimen, duration of ART, insulin resistance (IR), reported family history of hypertension and residential setting, factors independently associated with MetS were PI containing ART regimen, IR, duration of ART intake and BMI. In the adjusted model, the odds of MetS were three times higher among PLH on PI containing ART regimen (95% CI of adjusted odds ratio; aOR 1.27-8.51) and those having IR (95% CI of aOR 1.48-5.07). The odds of MetS among PLH with BMI ≥23 kg/m2 was 4 (95% CI of aOR 2.08-6.81) times higher than those with lower BMI. Conclusions: MetS in PLH requires the attention of health-care workers in India. Appropriate screening would help initiate early management.

Analysis of Predictors and Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients Requiring ICU Admission from COVID-19 Registry, India.

Background: Patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are associated with high mortality. The present retrospective, multicenter study describes the predictors and outcomes of COVID-19 patients requiring ICU admission from COVID-19 Registry of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), India. Materials and methods: Prospectively collected data from participating institutions were entered into the electronic National Clinical Registry of COVID-19. We enrolled patients aged >18 years with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring ICU admission between March 2020 and August 2021. Exclusion criteria were negative in RT-PCR report, death within 24 hours of ICU admission, or incomplete data. Their demographic and laboratory variables, ICU severity indices, treatment strategies, and outcomes were analyzed. Results: A total of 5,865 patients were enrolled. Overall mortality was 43.2%. Non-survivors were older (58.2 ± 15.4 vs 53.6 ± 14.7 years; p = 0.001), had multiple comorbidities (33.2% vs 29.5%, p = 0.001), had higher median D-dimer (1.56 vs 1.37, p = 0.015), higher CT severity index (16.8 ± 5.2 vs 13.5 ± 5.47, p = 0.001) and longer median hospital stay (10 vs 8 days, p = 0.001) and ICU stay (5 vs 4 days, p = 0.001), compared with survivors.On multivariate analysis, high CRP (HR 1.008, 95% CI: 1.006-1.010, p = 0.001) and high D-dimer (HR 1.089, 95% CI: 1.065-1.113, p < 0.001) were associated with invasive mechanical ventilation while older age (HR 1.19, CI: 1.001-1.038, p = 0.039) and high D-dimer (HR-1.121, CI: 1.072-1.172, p = 0.001) were independently associated with mortality and while the use of prophylactic low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) (HR 0.647, CI: 0.527-0.794, p = 0.001) lowered mortality. Conclusion: Among 5,865 COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU, mortality was 43.5%. High CRP and D-dimers were independently associated with the need for invasive mechanical ventilation while older age and high D-dimer were associated with higher mortality. The use of prophylactic LMWH independently reduced mortality. How to cite this article: Kajal K, Singla K, Puri GD, Bhalla A, Mukherjee A, Kumar G, et al. Analysis of Predictors and Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients Requiring ICU Admission from COVID-19 Registry, India. Indian J Crit Care Med 2023;27(8):552-562.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Spread of Hepatitis C Virus Identified during HIV Outbreak Investigation, Unnao, India.

An HIV outbreak investigation during 2017-2018 in Unnao District, Uttar Pradesh, India, unearthed high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies among the study participants. We investigated these HCV infections by analyzing NS5B and core regions. We observed no correlation between HIV-HCV viral loads and clustering of HCV sequences, regardless of HIV serostatus. All HCV isolates belonged to genotype 3a. Monophyletic clustering of isolates in NS5B phylogeny indicates emergence of the outbreak from a single isolate or its closely related descendants. The nucleotide substitution rate for NS5B was 6 × 10-3 and for core was 2 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year. Estimated time to most recent common ancestor of these isolates was 2012, aligning with the timeline of this outbreak, which might be attributable to unsafe injection practices while seeking healthcare. HIV-HCV co-infection underlines the need for integrated testing, surveillance, strengthening of healthcare systems, community empowerment, and molecular analyses as pragmatic public health tools.

Efficacy, safety, and lot-to-lot immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (BBV152): interim results of a randomised, double-blind, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: We report the clinical efficacy against COVID-19 infection of BBV152, a whole virion inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine formulated with a toll-like receptor 7/8 agonist molecule adsorbed to alum (Algel-IMDG) in Indian adults. METHODS: We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre, phase 3 clinical trial in 25 Indian hospitals or medical clinics to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and immunological lot consistency of BBV152. Adults (age ≥18 years) who were healthy or had stable chronic medical conditions (not an immunocompromising condition or requiring treatment with immunosuppressive therapy) were randomised 1:1 with a computer-generated randomisation scheme (stratified for the presence or absence of chronic conditions) to receive two intramuscular doses of vaccine or placebo administered 4 weeks apart. Participants, investigators, study coordinators, study-related personnel, the sponsor, and nurses who administered the vaccines were masked to treatment group allocation; an unmasked contract research organisation and a masked expert adjudication panel assessed outcomes. The primary outcome was the efficacy of the BBV152 vaccine in preventing a first occurrence of laboratory-confirmed (RT-PCR-positive) symptomatic COVID-19 (any severity), occurring at least 14 days after the second dose in the per-protocol population. We also assessed safety and reactogenicity throughout the duration of the study in all participants who had received at least one dose of vaccine or placebo. This report contains interim results (data cutoff May 17, 2021) regarding immunogenicity and safety outcomes (captured on days 0 to 56) and efficacy results with a median of 99 days for the study population. The trial was registered on the Indian Clinical Trials Registry India, CTRI/2020/11/028976, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04641481 (active, not recruiting). FINDINGS: Between Nov 16, 2020, and Jan 7, 2021, we recruited 25 798 participants who were randomly assigned to receive BBV152 or placebo; 24 419 received two doses of BBV152 (n=12 221) or placebo (n=12 198). Efficacy analysis was dependent on having 130 cases of symptomatic COVID-19, which occurred when 16 973 initially seronegative participants had at least 14 days follow-up after the second dose. 24 (0·3%) cases occurred among 8471 vaccine recipients and 106 (1·2%) among 8502 placebo recipients, giving an overall estimated vaccine efficacy of 77·8% (95% CI 65·2-86·4). In the safety population (n=25 753), 5959 adverse events occurred in 3194 participants. BBV152 was well tolerated; the same proportion of participants reported adverse events in the vaccine group (1597 [12·4%] of 12 879) and placebo group (1597 [12·4%] of 12 874), with no clinically significant differences in the distributions of solicited, unsolicited, or serious adverse events between the groups, and no cases of anaphylaxis or vaccine-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: BBV152 was highly efficacious against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease in adults. Vaccination was well tolerated with no safety concerns raised in this interim analysis. FUNDING: Bharat Biotech International and Indian Council of Medical Research.

A case control investigation of COVID-19 associated mucormycosis in India.

BACKGROUND: Increased occurrence of mucormycosis during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2021 in India prompted us to undertake a multi-site case-control investigation. The objectives were to examine the monthly trend of COVID-19 Associated Mucormycosis (CAM) cases among in-patients and to identify factors associated with development of CAM. METHODS: Eleven study sites were involved across India; archived records since 1st January 2021 till 30th September 2021 were used for trend analysis. The cases and controls were enrolled during 15th June 2021 to 30th September 2021. Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire. Among 1211 enrolled participants, 336 were CAM cases and 875 were COVID-19 positive non-mucormycosis controls. RESULTS: CAM-case admissions reached their peak in May 2021 like a satellite epidemic after a month of in-patient admission peak recorded due to COVID-19. The odds of developing CAM increased with the history of working in a dusty environment (adjusted odds ratio; aOR 3.24, 95% CI 1.34, 7.82), diabetes mellitus (aOR: 31.83, 95% CI 13.96, 72.63), longer duration of hospital stay (aOR: 1.06, 95% CI 1.02, 1.11) and use of methylprednisolone (aOR: 2.71, 95% CI 1.37, 5.37) following adjustment for age, gender, occupation, education, type of houses used for living, requirement of ventilatory support and route of steroid administration. Higher proportion of CAM cases required supplemental oxygen compared to the controls; use of non-rebreather mask (NRBM) was associated as a protective factor against mucormycosis compared to face masks (aOR: 0.18, 95% CI 0.08, 0.41). Genomic sequencing of archived respiratory samples revealed similar occurrences of Delta and Delta derivates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in both cases and controls. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate management of hyperglycemia, judicious use of steroids and use of NRBM during oxygen supplementation among COVID-19 patients have the potential to reduce the risk of occurrence of mucormycosis. Avoiding exposure to dusty environment would add to such prevention efforts.

Challenges faced by ethics committee members in India during COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods exploration.

Background & objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic had a distinct impact on scientific research and Ethics Committees (ECs). We conducted a mixed-methods investigation to understand the issues faced and solutions identified by ECs during this pandemic in India. Methods: A quantitative online survey form (30 members) and qualitative in-depth interviews (10 members) from various ECs were conducted. Thematic content analysis for qualitative and proportion analysis for quantitative data was carried out. Results: During the online survey, an average difficulty score, which was measured using the Visual Analogue Scale, was 5.3 (SD 2.1). Pressure for expedited approvals was felt by EC members with a drastic increase in the number of submission of research projects. The scarcity of information on investigational products (IPs) and requisite consent process posed major hurdles. Ongoing non-COVID studies and post-graduate dissertations were badly hit due to the shift in attention towards COVID-related research. Non-familiarity with virtual technology and lack of face-to-face interactions were highlighted as demerits. However, a few of the EC members welcomed newer methods, being time-saving, convenient and reducing travel hassles. Site monitoring and severe adverse event-related analyses were also negatively impacted upon. Solutions included the alternate methods of consenting (virtual, abbreviated), a detailed explanation of the protocol and IPs and benefits versus risk assessment. Interpretation & conclusions: Despite various challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ECs in India steered well through the hurdles. Moreover, adapting a hybrid mode, technical training and updating guidelines were perceived as urgent by EC members.

HIV epidemic in Mizoram, India: A rapid review to inform future responses.

Background & objectives: Mizoram, a northeastern State of India bordering Myanmar, is home to several tribal clans under the ethnic group Mizo: Renthelei, Ralte, Paite, Lai, Hmar, Lusei, Mara, Thado and Kuki. Mizos also reside in the neighbouring northeastern States of Tripura, Assam, Manipur and Nagaland. The majority of Mizo people outside India live across the border in the neighbouring Chin State and Sagaing Region of Myanmar. Over the last decade, Mizoram witnessed a concerning level of rise in HIV prevalence among the general population. The present rapid review was conducted to identify various interventions that could help curb this rising trend. Methods: An electronic search strategy with broad domains of 'HIV/AIDS', 'key population', 'community engagement' and 'interventions in Mizoram' using PubMed, Embase and Cochrane was adopted; grey literature were also accessed. Evidence, thus gleaned, were synthesized. Results: Twenty eight resource materials comprising articles, reports and dissertations contributed to the current review. Changing tribal social support structure, early initiation of drugs, sexual debut at an early age and drug-sex interface were identified as factors associated with the progression of HIV epidemic in the State. Issues pertaining to the migration of people across the borders and easy access to drugs continue to be of concern. Churches and youth leaders have a strong influence on the society, at times even constraining access of key population groups to HIV prevention and care services. Tackling stigma and discrimination, ensuring uninterrupted HIV services and creation of an enabling environment in this context seems urgently needed. Incarcerated people in the State have been found with a high level of HIV infection and their linkages with prevention and care services need strengthening. Interpretation & conclusions: This review underscores the importance of drawing upon successful intervention examples from the past such as 'Friends on Friday' and Red Ribbon Clubs. Active engagement of community-based organizations in programme planning, implementation and monitoring is essential. Establishment of harm reduction interventions for general and key populations paired with strategic communication appear to be the need of the hour.

HIV oral self-screening test among HIV/STD/TB clinic attendees: A mixed-method pilot investigation examining merit for larger evaluation.

Background & objectives: Globally, several countries consider HIV self-test as an important element in the toolbox to end AIDS by 2030. Against this background, the present investigation was conducted to pilot test the performance of an indigenous HIV oral self-test (HIVOST) and explore its acceptability. The overall purpose was to examine if this kit could serve as a promising tool and merit future larger clinical evaluation. Methods: A concurrent mixed-method investigation was undertaken during March-October 2019. One hundred and thirty two consecutive HIV/sexually transmitted diseases/tuberculosis clinic attendees were invited for participation; of whom, 100 were enrolled, and among them, 40 provided consent for qualitative in-depth interviews. The HIVOST kit assessed for its performance served as the 'index test', which worked on the principle of lateral flow chromatography. The results of the HIVOST were interpreted independently by the study physicians and participants at 20 min. HIVOST kit performance was assessed against the HIV confirmatory blood test result based on the national algorithm (3 rapid test or 1 ELISA and 2 rapid test) serving as the 'reference'. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and inter-rater agreement were estimated. The voices and concerns of the study participants were coded followed by identification of qualitative themes and ideas. Results: The sensitivity and specificity of the index test at the end of 20 min as interpreted by the participants were 83.3 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 69.8 to 92.5] and 98 per cent (95% CI: 89.4 to 99.5), respectively. Study physicians and participants independently interpreted HIVOST results with substantial inter-rater agreement (kappa value 0.88; 95% CI: 0.78-0.97). All HIVOST test strips were valid. Majority of the participants preferred saliva over blood for HIV self-test. 'Comfort', 'confidentiality' and 'convenience' were the perceived advantages of HIVOST. Some of the participants wished the package inserts contained 'how-to-do instructions in local languages', 'expiry date (if any)' and 'contact helpline number'. A few of them highlighted the need for a confirmatory HIV result following oral self-test. Concerns of the participants revolved around potential self-harm following HIVOST-positive result and safe disposal of kits. Interpretation & conclusions: Two major highlights of the present investigation are (i) high level of concordance in HIVOST results interpreted by participants and physicians, and (ii) encouraging level of acceptance of HIVOST. These findings and encouraging HIVOST performance statistics lend support towards large-scale clinical evaluation of this index test.

Community voices around COVID-19 vaccine in Chennai, India: A qualitative exploration during early phase of vaccine rollout.

Background & objectives: Globally, vaccination is considered as an important public health strategy to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of the current study was to conduct an in-depth inquiry to explore perceptions of community members around COVID-19 vaccines in the southern city of Chennai, Tamil Nadu. This was conducted during the early phase of the vaccine rollout programme in India. Methods: A qualitative investigation was conducted between January-February 2021 through in-depth interviews. Healthcare workers, religious leaders, community influencers, local administrators and representatives of marginalized communities were included. The key informant interview guides and probes explored five domains; (i) vaccine availability, (ii) trust in COVID-19 vaccines, (iii) vaccine-related concerns, (iv) health/risk balance and (v) vaccine prioritization. Transcripted interviews were coded using a thematic approach and analyzed manually as well as with the help of ATLAS.ti 9 software. Results: Eagerness to receive COVID-19 vaccines amongst some of the respondents was linked with freedom from fear, possible restoration of normalcy, protection of family and ability to travel and work abroad. Concerns around threat of emergence of new variants, damage caused by such viral mutants and trust in policymakers were other facilitatory influencers for vaccine uptake. On the other hand, doubts surrounding safety and fear of side effects of COVID-19 vaccine were the feeders to vaccine hesitancy. Lack of accurate information, sensational media reports and rumours exacerbated this fear and provoked anxiety among people. Apprehensions around COVID-19 vaccine in the wake of its rapid development and approval for use and reluctance to take it during the declining phase of the epidemic were identified as other inhibitory factors. Participants underlined the importance of having responsive communication strategies in place focussing on vaccine safety. Making vaccines available to people free of cost and ensuring wider access were other programmatic suggestions. Interpretation & conclusions: In conclusion, our study findings suggest that it is essential to remain engaged with communities and execute evidence-based information dissemination strategy about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines. We identified that it is also imperative to sensitize and train media professionals on how to report side effects related to vaccines. Responsive communication strategies will thus have the potential to serve as a key public health approach pertaining to future pandemic preparedness as well as to manage the demands of clinical and public health issues in an ongoing pandemic situation.

Characterizing the third wave of COVID-19: An analysis from the National Clinical Registry of COVID-19.

Background & objectives: Data from the National Clinical Registry for COVID-19 (NCRC) were analyzed with an aim to describe the clinical characteristics, course and outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the third wave of the pandemic and compare them with patients admitted earlier. Methods: The NCRC, launched in September 2020, is a multicentre observational initiative, which provided the platform for the current investigation. Demographic, clinical, treatment and outcome data of hospitalized COVID-19 patients were captured in an electronic data portal from 38 hospitals across India. Patients enrolled during December 16, 2021 to January 17, 2022 were considered representative of the third wave of COVID-19 and compared with those registered during November 15 to December 15, 2021, representative of the tail end of the second wave. Results: Between November 15, 2021 and January 17, 2022, 3230 patients were recruited in NCRC. Patients admitted in the third wave were significantly younger than those admitted earlier (46.7±20.5 vs. 54.6±18 yr). The patients admitted in the third wave had a lower requirement of drugs including steroids, interleukin (IL)-6 inhibitors and remdesivir as well as lower oxygen supplementation and mechanical ventilation. They had improved hospital outcomes with significantly lower in-hospital mortality (11.2 vs. 15.1%). The outcomes were better among the fully vaccinated when compared to the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. Interpretation & conclusions: The pattern of illness and outcomes were observed to be different in the third wave compared to the last wave. Hospitalized patients were younger with fewer comorbidities, decreased symptoms and improved outcomes, with fully vaccinated patients faring better than the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated ones.

Development of the India COVID-19 vaccine tracker.

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020. Since then, efforts were initiated to develop safe and effective vaccines. Till date, 11 vaccines have been included in the WHO's emergency use list. The emergence and spread of variant strains of SARS-CoV-2 has altered the disease transmission dynamics, thus creating a need for continuously monitoring the real-world effectiveness of various vaccines and assessing their overall impact on disease control. To achieve this goal, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) along with the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, took the lead to develop the India COVID-19 Vaccination Tracker by synergizing three different public health databases: National COVID-19 testing database, CoWIN vaccination database and the COVID-19 India portal. A Vaccine Data Analytics Committee (VDAC) was constituted to advise on various modalities of the proposed tracker. The VDAC reviewed the data related to COVID-19 testing, vaccination and patient outcomes available in the three databases and selected relevant data points for inclusion in the tracker, following which databases were integrated, using common identifiers, wherever feasible. Multiple data filters were applied to retrieve information of all individuals ≥18 yr who died after the acquisition of COVID-19 infection with or without vaccination, irrespective of the time between vaccination and test positivity. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the reduction of mortality and hospitalizations was initially assessed. As compared to the hospitalization data, mortality reporting was found to be much better in terms of correctness and completeness. Therefore, hospitalization data were not considered for analysis and presentation in the vaccine tracker. The vaccine tracker thus depicts VE against mortality, calculated by a cohort approach using person-time analysis. Incidence of COVID-19 deaths among one- and two-dose vaccine recipients was compared with that among unvaccinated groups, to estimate the rate ratios (RRs). VE was estimated as 96.6 and 97.5 per cent, with one and two doses of the vaccines, respectively, during the period of reporting. The India COVID-19 Vaccination Tracker was officially launched on September 9, 2021. The high VE against mortality, as demonstrated by the tracker, has helped aid in allaying vaccine hesitancy, augmenting and maintaining the momentum of India's COVID-19 vaccination drive.

Development & validation of scales to assess stigma related to COVID-19 in India.

Background & objectives: COVID-19 pandemic has triggered social stigma towards individuals affected and their families. This study describes the process undertaken for the development and validation of scales to assess stigmatizing attitudes and experiences among COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 participants from the community. Methods: COVID-19 Stigma Scale and Community COVID-19 Stigma Scale constituting 13 and six items, respectively, were developed based on review of literature and news reports, expert committee evaluation and participants' interviews through telephone for a multicentric study in India. For content validity, 61 (30 COVID-19-recovered and 31 non-COVID-19 participants from the community) were recruited. Test-retest reliability of the scales was assessed among 99 participants (41 COVID-19 recovered and 58 non-COVID-19). Participants were administered the scale at two-time points after a gap of 7-12 days. Cronbach's alpha, overall percentage agreement and kappa statistics were used to assess internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Results: Items in the scales were relevant and comprehensible. Both the scales had Cronbach's α above 0.6 indicating moderate-to-good internal consistency. Test-retest reliability assessed using kappa statistics indicated that for the COVID-19 Stigma Scale, seven items had a moderate agreement (0.4-0.6). For the Community COVID-19 Stigma Scale, four items had a moderate agreement. Interpretation & conclusions: Validity and reliability of the two stigma scales indicated that the scales were comprehensible and had moderate internal consistency. These scales could be used to assess COVID-19 stigma and help in the development of appropriate stigma reduction interventions for COVID-19 infected, and mitigation of stigmatizing attitudes in the community.

Looking back to move forward: A travel rule underlined by the current pandemic.

Learning from the past - is easier said than done. In this narrative, "travel" refers to the forward movement of the society at large on the path of health and development. It is suggested that looking back and learning from the lived experiences of the past outbreaks could help generating public health insights and incorporating them in planning for a better future. In the process, a country may choose to revisit what took place in the recent past during the COVID-19 pandemic within its boundary and beyond. However, unfolding of events in the past, which is not as immediate as COVID neither too far as the flu pandemic of 1918, also has lessons to offer. Recognizably, a few alarms, that rang in the recent past and cried for mass attention towards beefed up public health preparedness, were missed. It is therefore necessary now to critically examine the past-efforts to eradicate, eliminate or control diseases such as small pox, polio, HIV, tuberculosis, leprosy, measles or malaria. Results of such evaluation could inform the future courses of actions around disease elimination science and health (DESH) and help develop better nations.

SARS-CoV-2 re-infection: development of an epidemiological definition from India.

The current investigation was conducted with the objective to develop an epidemiological case definition of possible severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) re-infection and assess its magnitude in India. The epidemiological case definition for SARS-CoV-2 re-infection was developed from literature review of data on viral kinetics. For achieving second objective, the individuals who satisfied the developed case definition for SARS-CoV-2 re-infection were contacted telephonically. Taking available evidence into consideration, re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 in our study was defined as any individual who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on two separate occasions by either molecular tests or rapid antigen test at an interval of at least 102 days with one negative molecular test in between. In this archive based, telephonic survey, 58 out of 1300 individuals (4.5%) fulfilled the above-mentioned definition; 38 individuals could be contacted with healthcare workers (HCWs) accounting for 31.6% of the cases. A large proportion of participants was asymptomatic and had higher Ct value during the first episode. While SARS-CoV-2 re-infection is still a rare phenomenon, there is a need for epidemiological definition of re-infection for establishing surveillance systems and this study contributes to such a goal.Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) re-infection is an emerging concern and there is a need to define it. Therefore, working epidemiological case definition for re-infection was developed and its magnitude was explored via archive-based, telephonic survey. Re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 was defined as two positive tests at an interval of at least 102 days with one interim negative test. Thirty-eight of the 58 eligible patients could be contacted with 12 (31.6%) being HCWs. Majority of the participants were asymptomatic and had higher Ct value during their first episode. To conclude, a working epidemiological case definition of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection is important to strengthen surveillance. The present investigation contributes to this goal and records reinfection in 4.5% of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in India.

Association between ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors with SARS-CoV-2 transmission and mortality in India: an exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious public health concern worldwide. Certain regions of the globe were severely affected in terms of prevalence and mortality than other. Although the cause for this pattern is not clearly understood, lessons learned from previous epidemics and emerging evidences suggest the major role of ecological factors like ambient air pollutants (AAP) and meteorological parameters in increased COVID-19 incidence. The present study aimed to understand the impact of these factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and their associated mortality in major cities of India. METHODS: This study used secondary AAP, meteorological and COVID-19 data from official websites for the period January-November 2020, which were divided into Pre-lockdown (January-March 2020), Phase I (April to June 2020) and Phase II (July to November 2020) in India. After comprehensive screening, five major cities that includes 48 CPCB monitoring stations collecting daily data of ambient temperature, particulate matter PM2.5 and 10 were analysed. Spearman and Kendall's rank correlation test was performed to understand the association between SARS-CoV-2 transmission and AAP and, meteorological variables. Similarly, case fatality rate (CFR) was determined to compute the correlation between AAP and COVID-19 related morality. RESULTS: The level of air pollutants in major cities were significantly reduced during Phase I compared to Pre-lock down and increased upon Phase II in all the cities. During the Phase II in Delhi, the strong significant positive correlation was observed between the AAP and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Mumbai AAP levels were moderate and no correlation was noticed. The relation between AT and SARS-CoV-2 transmission was inconclusive as both positive and negative correlation observed. In addition, Delhi and Kolkata showed a positive association between long-term exposure to the AAP and COVID-19 CFR. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the hypothesis that the particulate matter upon exceeding the satisfactory level serves as an important cofactor in increasing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and related mortality. These findings would help public health experts to understand the SARS-CoV-2 transmission against ecological variables in India and provides supporting evidence to healthcare policymakers and government agencies for formulating strategies to combat the COVID-19.

Plausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: A mathematical modelling based analysis.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: In the context of India's ongoing resurgence of COVID-19 (second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020), there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system. Using simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, this study examined the conditions under which a serious third wave could occur. METHODS: Using a deterministic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, four potential mechanisms for a third wave were examined: (i) waning immunity restores previously exposed individuals to a susceptible state, (ii) emergence of a new viral variant that is capable of escaping immunity to previously circulating strains, (iii) emergence of a new viral variant that is more transmissible than the previously circulating strains, and (iv) release of current lockdowns affording fresh opportunities for transmission. RESULTS: Immune-mediated mechanisms (waning immunity, or viral evolution for immune escape) are unlikely to drive a severe third wave if acting on their own, unless such mechanisms lead to a complete loss of protection among those previously exposed. Likewise, a new, more transmissible variant would have to exceed a high threshold (R0>4.5) to cause a third wave on its own. However, plausible mechanisms for a third wave include: (i) a new variant that is more transmissible and at the same time capable of escaping prior immunity, and (ii) lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission and subsequently released. In both cases, any third wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave. Rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave. Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage to mitigate against any eventuality. Preparedness planning for any potential future wave will benefit by drawing upon the projected numbers based on the present modelling exercise.

Comparison of the immunogenicity & protective efficacy of various SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates in non-human primates.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis and research groups worldwide are engaged in developing vaccine candidates to curb its transmission, with a few vaccines having progressed to advanced stages of clinical trials. The aim of this systematic review was to compare immunogenicity and protective efficacy of various SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates tested in non-human primate (NHP) models. METHODS: Literature on effect of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in NHP models reported on PubMed and preprint platforms (medRxiv and bioRxiv) till October 22, 2020, was searched with the following terms: coronavirus vaccine, COVID-19 vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, nonhuman primate, and rhesus macaque. RESULTS: Our search yielded 19 studies, which reported immune response elicited by 18 vaccine candidates in NHP. All the vaccines induced detectable neutralizing antibody (NAb) titres in the serum of vaccinated animals, with some showing effective viral clearance from various organs. The vaccinated animals also showed nil to mild histopathological changes in their lungs compared to placebo groups in the trials that performed necropsy. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlighted onset of quick immunogenicity and protective efficacy of mRNA-1273, followed by Ad26.CoV2.S, NVX-CoV2373, BNT162b2, RBD and BBV152 vaccine candidates in preclinical trials as compared to the others. NHP data also showed correlation with clinical trial data available for a few vaccines. Preclinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates in NHPs yielded promising results, with some candidates faring better than others.

Antibody responses to the BBV152 vaccine in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2: A pilot study.

Background & objectives: Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is a recommendation from the World Health Organization as the foremost preference in the current situation to control the COVID-19 pandemic. BBV152 is one of the approved vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 in India. In this study, we determined SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody levels at day 0 (baseline, before vaccination), day 28 ± 2 post-first dose (month 1) and day 56 ± 2 post-first dose (month 2) of BBV152 whole-virion-inactivated SARS-CoV-2 recipients, and compared the antibody responses of individuals with confirmed pre-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection to those individuals without prior evidence of infection. Methods: Blood samples were collected from 114 healthcare professionals and frontline workers who received BBV152 vaccine from February to May & June 2021. Prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 was determined at baseline. Serum samples were used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein-specific IgG [IgG (N)], spike protein-specific IgG [IgG (S)] and neutralizing antibodies (NAb). Results: Participants with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection after a single vaccine dose elicited IgG (N) and IgG (S) antibody levels along with NAb binding inhibition responses levels were similar to infection-naïve vaccinated participants who had taken two doses of vaccine. Interpretation & conclusions: Our preliminary data suggested that a single dose of BBV152-induced humoral immunity in previously infected individuals was equivalent to two doses of the vaccine in infection-naïve individuals. However, these findings need to be confirmed with large sized cohort studies.

Clinical profile of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in first & second wave of the pandemic: Insights from an Indian registry based observational study.

Background & objectives: India witnessed a massive second surge of COVID-19 cases since March 2021 after a period of decline from September 2020. Data collected under the National Clinical Registry for COVID-19 (NCRC) were analysed to describe the differences in demographic and clinical features of COVID-19 patients recruited during these two successive waves. Methods: The NCRC, launched in September 2020, is an ongoing multicentre observational initiative, which provided the platform for the current investigation. Demographic, clinical, treatment and outcome data of hospitalized, confirmed COVID-19 patients were captured in an electronic data portal from 41 hospitals across India. Patients enrolled during September 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 and February 1 to May 11, 2021 constituted participants of the two successive waves, respectively. Results: As on May 11, 2021, 18961 individuals were recruited in the registry, 12059 and 6903 reflecting in-patients from the first and second waves, respectively. Mean age of the patients was significantly lower in the second wave [48.7 (18.1) yr vs. 50.7 (18.0) yr, P<0.001] with higher proportion of patients in the younger age group intervals of <20, and 20-39 yr. Approximately 70 per cent of the admitted patients were ≥ 40 yr of age in both waves of the pandemic. The proportion of males were slightly lower in second wave as compared to the first [4400 (63.7%) vs. 7886 (65.4%), P=0.02]. Commonest presenting symptom was fever in both waves. In the second wave, a significantly higher proportion [2625 (48.6%) vs. 4420 (42.8%), P<0.003] complained of shortness of breath, developed ARDS [422(13%) vs. 880 (7.9%), P<0.001], required supplemental oxygen [1637 (50.3%) vs. 4771 (42.7%), P<0.001], and mechanical ventilation [260 (15.9%) vs. 530 (11.1%), P<0.001]. Mortality also significantly increased in the second wave [OR: 1.35 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.52)] in all age groups except in <20 yr. Interpretation & conclusions: The second wave of COVID-19 in India was slightly different in presentation than the first wave, with a younger demography, lesser comorbidities, and presentation with breathlessness in greater frequency.