Implications of Race Adjustment in Lung-Function Equations.

BACKGROUND: Adjustment for race is discouraged in lung-function testing, but the implications of adopting race-neutral equations have not been comprehensively quantified. METHODS: We obtained longitudinal data from 369,077 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, U.K. Biobank, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Using these data, we compared the race-based 2012 Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI-2012) equations with race-neutral equations introduced in 2022 (GLI-Global). Evaluated outcomes included national projections of clinical, occupational, and financial reclassifications; individual lung-allocation scores for transplantation priority; and concordance statistics (C statistics) for clinical prediction tasks. RESULTS: Among the 249 million persons in the United States between 6 and 79 years of age who are able to produce high-quality spirometric results, the use of GLI-Global equations may reclassify ventilatory impairment for 12.5 million persons, medical impairment ratings for 8.16 million, occupational eligibility for 2.28 million, grading of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for 2.05 million, and military disability compensation for 413,000. These potential changes differed according to race; for example, classifications of nonobstructive ventilatory impairment may change dramatically, increasing 141% (95% confidence interval [CI], 113 to 169) among Black persons and decreasing 69% (95% CI, 63 to 74) among White persons. Annual disability payments may increase by more than $1 billion among Black veterans and decrease by $0.5 billion among White veterans. GLI-2012 and GLI-Global equations had similar discriminative accuracy with regard to respiratory symptoms, health care utilization, new-onset disease, death from any cause, death related to respiratory disease, and death among persons on a transplant waiting list, with differences in C statistics ranging from -0.008 to 0.011. CONCLUSIONS: The use of race-based and race-neutral equations generated similarly accurate predictions of respiratory outcomes but assigned different disease classifications, occupational eligibility, and disability compensation for millions of persons, with effects diverging according to race. (Funded by the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.).

Systematically assessing microbiome-disease associations identifies drivers of inconsistency in metagenomic research.

Evaluating the relationship between the human gut microbiome and disease requires computing reliable statistical associations. Here, using millions of different association modeling strategies, we evaluated the consistency-or robustness-of microbiome-based disease indicators for 6 prevalent and well-studied phenotypes (across 15 public cohorts and 2,343 individuals). We were able to discriminate between analytically robust versus nonrobust results. In many cases, different models yielded contradictory associations for the same taxon-disease pairing, some showing positive correlations and others negative. When querying a subset of 581 microbe-disease associations that have been previously reported in the literature, 1 out of 3 taxa demonstrated substantial inconsistency in association sign. Notably, >90% of published findings for type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) were particularly nonrobust in this regard. We additionally quantified how potential confounders-sequencing depth, glucose levels, cholesterol, and body mass index, for example-influenced associations, analyzing how these variables affect the ostensible correlation between Faecalibacterium prausnitzii abundance and a healthy gut. Overall, we propose our approach as a method to maximize confidence when prioritizing findings that emerge from microbiome association studies.

Specification curve analysis to identify heterogeneity in risk factors for dementia: findings from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Lancet Commission identified 12 risk factors as priorities for prevention of dementia, and other studies identified APOE e4/e4 genotype and family history of Alzheimer's disease strongly associated with dementia outcomes; however, it is unclear how robust these relationships are across dementia subtypes and analytic scenarios. Specification curve analysis (SCA) is a new tool to probe how plausible analytical scenarios influence outcomes. METHODS: We evaluated the heterogeneity of odds ratios for 12 risk factors reported from the Lancet 2020 report and two additional strong associated non-modifiable factors (APOE e4/e4 genotype and family history of Alzheimer's disease) with dementia outcomes across 450,707 UK Biobank participants using SCA with 5357 specifications across dementia subtypes (outcomes) and analytic models (e.g., standard demographic covariates such as age or sex and/or 14 correlated risk factors). RESULTS: SCA revealed variable dementia risks by subtype and age, with associations for TBI and APOE e4/e4 robust to model specification; in contrast, diabetes showed fluctuating links with dementia subtypes. We found that unattributed dementia participants had similar risk factor profiles to participants with defined subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: We observed heterogeneity in the risk of dementia, and estimates of risk were influenced by the inclusion of a combination of other modifiable risk factors; non-modifiable demographic factors had a minimal role in analytic heterogeneity. Future studies should report multiple plausible analytic scenarios to test the robustness of their association. Considering these combinations of risk factors could be advantageous for the clinical development and evaluation of novel screening models for different types of dementia.

Leveraging vibration of effects analysis for robust discovery in observational biomedical data science.

Hypothesis generation in observational, biomedical data science often starts with computing an association or identifying the statistical relationship between a dependent and an independent variable. However, the outcome of this process depends fundamentally on modeling strategy, with differing strategies generating what can be called "vibration of effects" (VoE). VoE is defined by variation in associations that often lead to contradictory results. Here, we present a computational tool capable of modeling VoE in biomedical data by fitting millions of different models and comparing their output. We execute a VoE analysis on a series of widely reported associations (e.g., carrot intake associated with eyesight) with an extended additional focus on lifestyle exposures (e.g., physical activity) and components of the Framingham Risk Score for cardiovascular health (e.g., blood pressure). We leveraged our tool for potential confounder identification, investigating what adjusting variables are responsible for conflicting models. We propose modeling VoE as a critical step in navigating discovery in observational data, discerning robust associations, and cataloging adjusting variables that impact model output.

Environmental chemical-wide associations with immune biomarkers in US adults: A cross-sectional analysis.

Environmental chemical exposures influence immune system functions, and humans are exposed to a wide range of chemicals, termed the chemical "exposome". A comprehensive, discovery analysis of the associations of multiple chemical families with immune biomarkers is needed. In this study, we tested the associations between environmental chemical concentrations and immune biomarkers. We analyzed the United States cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2018). Chemical biomarker concentrations were measured in blood or urine (196 chemicals, 17 chemical families). Immune biomarkers included counts of lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, basophils, eosinophils, red blood cells, white blood cells, and mean corpuscular volume. We conducted separate survey-weighted, multivariable linear regressions of each log2-transformed chemical and immune measure, adjusted for relevant covariates. We accounted for multiple comparisons using a false discovery rate (FDR). Among 45,528 adult participants, the mean age was 45.7 years, 51.4% were female, and 69.3% were Non-Hispanic White. 71 (36.2%) chemicals were associated with at least one of the eight immune biomarkers. The most chemical associations (FDR<0.05) were observed with mean corpuscular volume (36 chemicals) and red blood cell counts (35 chemicals). For example, a doubling in the concentration of cotinine was associated with 0.16 fL (95% CI: 0.15, 0.17; FDR<0.001) increased mean corpuscular volume, and a doubling in the concentration of blood lead was associated with 61,736 increased red blood cells per µL (95% CI: 54,335, 69,138; FDR<0.001). A wide variety of chemicals, such as metals and smoking-related compounds, were highly associated with immune system biomarkers. This environmental chemical-wide association study identified chemicals from multiple families for further toxicological, immunologic, and epidemiological investigation.

Pediatric and Young Adult Household Transmission of the Initial Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States: Administrative Claims Study.

BACKGROUND: The correlates responsible for the temporal changes of intrahousehold SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States have been understudied mainly due to a lack of available surveillance data. Specifically, early analyses of SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rates (SARs) were small in sample size and conducted cross-sectionally at single time points. From these limited data, it has been difficult to assess the role that different risk factors have had on intrahousehold disease transmission in different stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in children and youth. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamic and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 among pediatric and young adult index cases (age 0 to 25 years) in the United States through the initial waves of the pandemic. METHODS: Using administrative claims, we analyzed 19 million SARS-CoV-2 test records between January 2020 and February 2021. We identified 36,241 households with pediatric index cases and calculated household SARs utilizing complete case information. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the household SARS-CoV-2 transmission between 4 index age groups (0 to 4 years, 5 to 11 years, 12 to 17 years, and 18 to 25 years) while adjusting for sex, family size, quarter of first SARS-CoV-2 positive record, and residential regions of the index cases. RESULTS: After filtering all household records for greater than one member in a household and missing information, only 36,241 (0.85%) of 4,270,130 households with a pediatric case remained in the analysis. Index cases aged between 0 and 17 years were a minority of the total index cases (n=11,484, 11%). The overall SAR of SARS-CoV-2 was 23.04% (95% CI 21.88-24.19). As a comparison, the SAR for all ages (0 to 65+ years) was 32.4% (95% CI 32.1-32.8), higher than the SAR for the population between 0 and 25 years of age. The highest SAR of 38.3% was observed in April 2020 (95% CI 31.6-45), while the lowest SAR of 15.6% was observed in September 2020 (95% CI 13.9-17.3). It consistently decreased from 32% to 21.1% as the age of index groups increased. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, we found that the youngest pediatric age group (0 to 4 years) had 1.69 times (95% CI 1.42-2.00) the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to any family members when compared with the oldest group (18 to 25 years). Family size was significantly associated with household viral transmission (odds ratio 2.66, 95% CI 2.58-2.74). CONCLUSIONS: Using retrospective claims data, the pediatric index transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was associated with location and family characteristics. Pediatric SAR (0 to 25 years) was less than the SAR for all age other groups. Less than 1% (n=36,241) of all household data were retained in the retrospective study for complete case analysis, perhaps biasing our findings. We have provided measures of baseline household pediatric transmission for tracking and comparing the infectivity of later SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Projected Changes in Statin and Antihypertensive Therapy Eligibility With the AHA PREVENT Cardiovascular Risk Equations.

Importance: Since 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have recommended the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) for estimating the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). An AHA scientific advisory group recently developed the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations, which incorporated kidney measures, removed race as an input, and improved calibration in contemporary populations. PREVENT is known to produce ASCVD risk predictions that are lower than those produced by the PCEs, but the potential clinical implications have not been quantified. Objective: To estimate the number of US adults who would experience changes in risk categorization, treatment eligibility, or clinical outcomes when applying PREVENT equations to existing ACC and AHA guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Nationally representative cross-sectional sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2011 to March 2020, which had response rates ranging from 47% to 70%. Main Outcomes and Measures: Differences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk, ACC and AHA risk categorization, eligibility for statin or antihypertensive therapy, and projected occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Results: In a nationally representative sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years (median age, 53 years; 51.3% women), it was estimated that using PREVENT equations would reclassify approximately half of US adults to lower ACC and AHA risk categories (53.0% [95% CI, 51.2%-54.8%]) and very few US adults to higher risk categories (0.41% [95% CI, 0.25%-0.62%]). The number of US adults receiving or recommended for preventive treatment would decrease by an estimated 14.3 million (95% CI, 12.6 million-15.9 million) for statin therapy and 2.62 million (95% CI, 2.02 million-3.21 million) for antihypertensive therapy. The study estimated that, over 10 years, these decreases in treatment eligibility could result in 107 000 additional occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Eligibility changes would affect twice as many men as women and a greater proportion of Black adults than White adults. Conclusion and Relevance: By assigning lower ASCVD risk predictions, application of the PREVENT equations to existing treatment thresholds could reduce eligibility for statin and antihypertensive therapy among 15.8 million US adults.

Association between timing and consistency of physical activity and type 2 diabetes: a cohort study on participants of the UK Biobank.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We sought to quantify the relationship between morning, afternoon or evening physical activity and consistency (e.g. routine) and risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 93,095 UK Biobank participants (mean age 62 years) without a history of type 2 diabetes wore a wrist-worn accelerometer for 1 week. We converted accelerometer information to estimate metabolic equivalent of task (MET), summing MET h of total physical activity completed within three intra-day time segments (morning, afternoon and evening). We quantified physical activity consistency as the SD of participants' daily total physical activity. We ultimately associated each of the following with incident type 2 diabetes: (1) morning, afternoon or evening 'time-segmented' MET h per week; and (2) consistency. We also considered moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA) in association with type 2 diabetes incidence. RESULTS: When considering MET as the physical activity measure, we observed protective associations of morning (HR 0.90 [95% CI 0.86, 0.93], p=7×10-8) and afternoon (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.87, 0.95], p=1×10-5) but did not have evidence for evening physical activity (HR 0.95 [95% CI 0.90, 1.00], p=0.07) with type 2 diabetes. There was no difference between MET-measured morning and afternoon physical activity. Our substitution model highlighted the importance of adjusting for lifestyle factors (e.g. sleep time and diet); the effect of a substitution between afternoon and evening physical activity was attenuated after adjustment for lifestyle variables. Consistency of MET-measured physical activity was not associated with type 2 diabetes (p=0.07). MVPA and VPA were associated with decreased risk for type 2 diabetes at all times of the day. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Total metabolic equivalents of physical activity in the morning and afternoon had a protective effect on diabetes risk and evening activity was not associated with diabetes. Consistency of physical activity did not play a role in decreasing risk for diabetes. Vigorous activity is associated with lower risk no matter the time of day of activity.

Spatio-temporal interpolation and delineation of extreme heat events in California between 2017 and 2021.

Robust spatio-temporal delineation of extreme climate events and accurate identification of areas that are impacted by an event is a prerequisite for identifying population-level and health-related risks. In prior research, attributes such as temperature and humidity have often been linearly assigned to the population of the study unit from the closest weather station. This could result in inaccurate event delineation and biased assessment of extreme heat exposure. We have developed a spatio-temporal model to dynamically delineate boundaries for Extreme Heat Events (EHE) across space and over time, using a relative measure of Apparent Temperature (AT). Our surface interpolation approach offers a higher spatio-temporal resolution compared to the standard nearest-station (NS) assignment method. We show that the proposed approach can provide at least 80.8 percent improvement in identification of areas and populations impacted by EHEs. This improvement in average adjusts the misclassification of about one million Californians per day of an extreme event, who would be either unidentified or misidentified under EHEs between 2017 and 2021.

Extended length of stay in diabetic octogenarians following revision total hip arthroplasty.

PURPOSE: Past research has shown diabetic patients, including those of geriatric age, to be at an increased risk of postoperative complications following various surgeries, including revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA). However, whether these risks are disproportionately greater in octogenarian patients has not been well investigated. This study aimed to determine whether diabetic octogenarians are at an increased risk of postoperative complications following rTHA. METHODS: The national surgical quality improvement program database was used to identify all diabetic patients who underwent rTHA from 2007 to 2018. Patients were divided into two groups: an aged 65 to 79 cohort and an aged 80 to 89 cohort. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and postoperative complications were assessed and compared between the two aged cohorts, with the utilization of bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Of the 1184 diabetic patients who underwent rTHA, 906 (76.5%) patients were in the aged 65 to 79 cohort and 278 (23.5%) patients were in the aged 80 to 89 cohort. After adjusting for patient demographics and medical comorbidities, compared to patients in the aged 65 to 79 group, diabetic patients who were 80 to 89 years old were found to have an increased risk of extended length of hospital stay (OR 1.67; p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: Diabetic octogenarian patients have an increased risk for a prolonged hospital stay following rTHA relative to their younger diabetic geriatric counterparts. Orthopedic surgeons should be aware of these increased risks to properly educate diabetic octogenarians and assist in surgical management decision making in these patients considering rTHA.

Integrative analysis of genomic and exposomic influences on youth mental health.

BACKGROUND: Understanding complex influences on mental health problems in young people is needed to inform early prevention strategies. Both genetic and environmental factors are known to influence youth mental health, but a more comprehensive picture of their interplay, including wide-ranging environmental exposures - that is, the exposome - is needed. We perform an integrative analysis of genomic and exposomic data in relation to internalizing and externalizing symptoms in a cohort of 4,314 unrelated youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. METHODS: Using novel GREML-based approaches, we model the variance in internalizing and externalizing symptoms explained by additive and interactive influences from the genome (G) and modeled exposome (E) consisting of up to 133 variables at the family, peer, school, neighborhood, life event, and broader environmental levels, including genome-by-exposome (G × E) and exposome-by-exposome (E × E) effects. RESULTS: A best-fitting integrative model with G, E, and G × E components explained 35% and 63% of variance in youth internalizing and externalizing symptoms, respectively. Youth in the top quintile of model-predicted risk accounted for the majority of individuals with clinically elevated symptoms at follow-up (60% for internalizing; 72% for externalizing). Of note, different domains of environmental exposures were most impactful for internalizing (life events) and externalizing (contextual including family, school, and peer-level factors) symptoms. In addition, variance explained by G × E contributions was substantially larger for externalizing (33%) than internalizing (13%) symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced statistical genetic methods in a longitudinal cohort of youth can be leveraged to address fundamental questions about the role of 'nature and nurture' in developmental psychopathology.

Data-driven assessment, contextualisation and implementation of 134 variables in the risk for type 2 diabetes: an analysis of Lifelines, a prospective cohort study in the Netherlands.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to assess and contextualise 134 potential risk variables for the development of type 2 diabetes and to determine their applicability in risk prediction. METHODS: A total of 96,534 people without baseline diabetes (372,007 person-years) from the Dutch Lifelines cohort were included. We used a risk variable-wide association study (RV-WAS) design to independently screen and replicate risk variables for 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes. For identified variables, we contextualised HRs, calculated correlations and assessed their robustness and unique contribution in different clinical contexts using bootstrapped and cross-validated lasso regression models. We evaluated the change in risk, or 'HR trajectory', when sequentially assigning variables to a model. RESULTS: We identified 63 risk variables, with novel associations for quality-of-life indicators and non-cardiovascular medications (i.e., proton-pump inhibitors, anti-asthmatics). For continuous variables, the increase of 1 SD of HbA1c, i.e., 3.39 mmol/mol (0.31%), was equivalent in risk to an increase of 0.53 mmol/l of glucose, 19.8 cm of waist circumference, 8.34 kg/m2 of BMI, 0.67 mmol/l of HDL-cholesterol, and 0.14 mmol/l of uric acid. Other variables required an increase of >3 SD, which is not physiologically realistic or a rare occurrence in the population. Though moderately correlated, the inclusion of four variables satiated prediction models. Invasive variables, except for glucose and HbA1c, contributed little compared with non-invasive variables. Glucose, HbA1c and family history of diabetes explained a unique part of disease risk. Adding risk variables to a satiated model can impact the HRs of variables already in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Many variables show weak or inconsistent associations with the development of type 2 diabetes, and only a handful can reliably explain disease risk. Newly discovered risk variables will yield little over established factors, and existing prediction models can be simplified. A systematic, data-driven approach to identify risk variables for the prediction of type 2 diabetes is necessary for the practice of precision medicine.

Laboratory-wide association study of survival with prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of overall patient health are essential to inform treatment decisions for patients diagnosed with cancer. The authors applied XWAS methods, herein referred to as "laboratory-wide association study (LWAS)", to evaluate associations between routinely collected laboratory tests and survival in veterans with prostate cancer. METHODS: The authors identified 133,878 patients who were diagnosed with prostate cancer between 2000 and 2013 in the Veterans Health Administration using any laboratory tests collected within 6 months of diagnosis (3,345,083 results). Using the LWAS framework, the false-discovery rate was used to test the association between multiple laboratory tests and survival, and these results were validated using training, testing, and validation cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 31 laboratory tests associated with survival met stringent LWAS criteria. LWAS confirmed markers of prostate cancer biology (prostate-specific antigen: hazard ratio [HR], 1.07 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.06-1.08]; and alkaline phosphatase: HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.20-1.24]) as well laboratory tests of general health (eg, serum albumin: HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; and creatinine: HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.07]) and inflammation (leukocyte count: HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.98-1.26]; and erythrocyte sedimentation rate: HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09-1.61]). In addition, the authors derived and validated separate models for patients with localized and advanced disease, identifying 28 laboratory markers and 15 laboratory markers, respectively, in each cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The authors identified routinely collected laboratory data associated with survival for patients with prostate cancer using LWAS methodologies, including markers of prostate cancer biology, overall health, and inflammation. Broadening consideration of determinants of survival beyond those related to cancer itself could help to inform the design of clinical trials and aid in shared decision making. LAY SUMMARY: This article examined routine laboratory tests associated with survival among veterans with prostate cancer. Using laboratory-wide association studies, the authors identified 31 laboratory tests associated with survival that can be used to inform the design of clinical trials and aid patients in shared decision making.

Evolving phenotypes of non-hospitalized patients that indicate long COVID.

BACKGROUND: For some SARS-CoV-2 survivors, recovery from the acute phase of the infection has been grueling with lingering effects. Many of the symptoms characterized as the post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) could have multiple causes or are similarly seen in non-COVID patients. Accurate identification of PASC phenotypes will be important to guide future research and help the healthcare system focus its efforts and resources on adequately controlled age- and gender-specific sequelae of a COVID-19 infection. METHODS: In this retrospective electronic health record (EHR) cohort study, we applied a computational framework for knowledge discovery from clinical data, MLHO, to identify phenotypes that positively associate with a past positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test for COVID-19. We evaluated the post-test phenotypes in two temporal windows at 3-6 and 6-9 months after the test and by age and gender. Data from longitudinal diagnosis records stored in EHRs from Mass General Brigham in the Boston Metropolitan Area was used for the analyses. Statistical analyses were performed on data from March 2020 to June 2021. Study participants included over 96 thousand patients who had tested positive or negative for COVID-19 and were not hospitalized. RESULTS: We identified 33 phenotypes among different age/gender cohorts or time windows that were positively associated with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. All identified phenotypes were newly recorded in patients' medical records 2 months or longer after a COVID-19 RT-PCR test in non-hospitalized patients regardless of the test result. Among these phenotypes, a new diagnosis record for anosmia and dysgeusia (OR 2.60, 95% CI [1.94-3.46]), alopecia (OR 3.09, 95% CI [2.53-3.76]), chest pain (OR 1.27, 95% CI [1.09-1.48]), chronic fatigue syndrome (OR 2.60, 95% CI [1.22-2.10]), shortness of breath (OR 1.41, 95% CI [1.22-1.64]), pneumonia (OR 1.66, 95% CI [1.28-2.16]), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (OR 1.41, 95% CI [1.22-1.64]) is one of the most significant indicators of a past COVID-19 infection. Additionally, more new phenotypes were found with increased confidence among the cohorts who were younger than 65. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study confirm many of the post-COVID-19 symptoms and suggest that a variety of new diagnoses, including new diabetes mellitus and neurological disorder diagnoses, are more common among those with a history of COVID-19 than those without the infection. Additionally, more than 63% of PASC phenotypes were observed in patients under 65 years of age, pointing out the importance of vaccination to minimize the risk of debilitating post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 among younger adults.

Association of 152 Biomarker Reference Intervals with All-Cause Mortality in Participants of a General United States Survey from 1999 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Physicians sometimes consider whether or not to perform diagnostic testing in healthy people, but it is unknown whether nonextreme values of diagnostic tests typically encountered in such populations have any predictive ability, in particular for risk of death. The goal of this study was to quantify the associations among population reference intervals of 152 common biomarkers with all-cause mortality in a representative, nondiseased sample of adults in the United States. METHODS: The study used an observational cohort derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a representative sample of the United States population consisting of 6 survey waves from 1999 to 2010 with linked mortality data (unweighted N = 30 651) and a median followup of 6.1 years. We deployed an X-wide association study (XWAS) approach to systematically perform association testing of 152 diagnostic tests with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: After controlling for multiple hypotheses, we found that the values within reference intervals (10-90th percentiles) of 20 common biomarkers used as diagnostic tests or clinical measures were associated with all-cause mortality, including serum albumin, red cell distribution width, serum alkaline phosphatase, and others after adjusting for age (linear and quadratic terms), sex, race, income, chronic illness, and prior-year healthcare utilization. All biomarkers combined, however, explained only an additional 0.8% of the variance of mortality risk. We found modest year-to-year changes, or changes in association from survey wave to survey wave from 1999 to 2010 in the association sizes of biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Reference and nonoutlying variation in common biomarkers are consistently associated with mortality risk in the US population, but their additive contribution in explaining mortality risk is minor.

A systematic machine learning and data type comparison yields metagenomic predictors of infant age, sex, breastfeeding, antibiotic usage, country of origin, and delivery type.

The microbiome is a new frontier for building predictors of human phenotypes. However, machine learning in the microbiome is fraught with issues of reproducibility, driven in large part by the wide range of analytic models and metagenomic data types available. We aimed to build robust metagenomic predictors of host phenotype by comparing prediction performances and biological interpretation across 8 machine learning methods and 4 different types of metagenomic data. Using 1,570 samples from 300 infants, we fit 7,865 models for 6 host phenotypes. We demonstrate the dependence of accuracy on algorithm choice and feature definition in microbiome data and propose a framework for building microbiome-derived indicators of host phenotype. We additionally identify biological features predictive of age, sex, breastfeeding status, historical antibiotic usage, country of origin, and delivery type. Our complete results can be viewed at http://apps.chiragjpgroup.org/ubiome_predictions/.

Temporal exposure and consistency of endocrine disrupting chemicals in a longitudinal study of individuals with impaired fasting glucose.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) include non-persistent exogenous substances such as parabens, bisphenols and phthalates which have been associated with a range of metabolic disorders and disease. It is unclear if exposure remains consistent over time. We investigated change in indicators of EDC exposure between 2009 and 2016 and assessed its consistency between and within individuals over a median follow-up time of 47 months in a sample of Dutch individuals. Of 500 Dutch individuals, two 24 h urine samples were analysed for 5 parabens, 3 bisphenols and 13 metabolites of in total 8 different phthalates. We calculated per-year differences using meta-analysis and assessed temporal correlations between and within individuals using Spearman correlation coefficients, intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) and kappa-statistics. We found a secular decrease in concentrations of methyl, ethyl, propyl and n-butyl paraben, bisphenol A, and metabolites of di-ethyl phthalate (DEP), di-butyl phthalate (DBP), di-(2-ethyl-hexyl) phthalate (DEHP), and butylbenzyl phthalate (DBzP) which varied from 8 to 96% (ethyl paraben, propyl paraben) between 2009 and 2016. Within-person temporal correlations were highest for parabens (ICC: 0.34 to 0.40) and poorest for bisphenols (ICC: 0.15 to 0.23). For phthalate metabolites, correlations decreased most between time periods (ICC < 48 months: 0.22 to 0.39; ≥48 months: 0.05 to 0.32). When categorizing EDC concentrations, 33-54% of individuals remained in the lowest or highest category and temporal correlations were similar to continuous measurements. Exposure to most EDCs decreased between 2009 and 2016 in a sample of individuals with impaired fasting glucose from the Dutch population. Temporal consistency was generally poor. The inconsistency in disease associations may be influenced by individual-level or temporal variation exhibited by EDCs. Our findings call for the need for repeated measurements of EDCs in observational studies before and during at-risk temporal windows for the disease.

A review of validation strategies for computational drug repositioning.

Repositioning of previously approved drugs is a promising methodology because it reduces the cost and duration of the drug development pipeline and reduces the likelihood of unforeseen adverse events. Computational repositioning is especially appealing because of the ability to rapidly screen candidates in silico and to reduce the number of possible repositioning candidates. What is unclear, however, is how useful such methods are in producing clinically efficacious repositioning hypotheses. Furthermore, there is no agreement in the field over the proper way to perform validation of in silico predictions, and in fact no systematic review of repositioning validation methodologies. To address this unmet need, we review the computational repositioning literature and capture studies in which authors claimed to have validated their work. Our analysis reveals widespread variation in the types of strategies, predictions made and databases used as 'gold standards'. We highlight a key weakness of the most commonly used strategy and propose a path forward for the consistent analytic validation of repositioning techniques.

A nutrient-wide association study for risk of prostate cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and the Netherlands Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: The evidence from the literature regarding the association of dietary factors and risk of prostate cancer is inconclusive. METHODS: A nutrient-wide association study was conducted to systematically and comprehensively evaluate the associations between 92 foods or nutrients and risk of prostate cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for total energy intake, smoking status, body mass index, physical activity, diabetes and education were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for standardized dietary intakes. As in genome-wide association studies, correction for multiple comparisons was applied using the false discovery rate (FDR < 5%) method and suggested results were replicated in an independent cohort, the Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS). RESULTS: A total of 5916 and 3842 incident cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed during a mean follow-up of 14 and 20 years in EPIC and NLCS, respectively. None of the dietary factors was associated with the risk of total prostate cancer in EPIC (minimum FDR-corrected P, 0.37). Null associations were also observed by disease stage, grade and fatality, except for positive associations observed for intake of dry cakes/biscuits with low-grade and butter with aggressive prostate cancer, respectively, out of which the intake of dry cakes/biscuits was replicated in the NLCS. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide little support for an association for the majority of the 92 examined dietary factors and risk of prostate cancer. The association of dry cakes/biscuits with low-grade prostate cancer warrants further replication given the scarcity in the literature.

Unprocessed Red Meat and Processed Meat Consumption: Dietary Guideline Recommendations From the Nutritional Recommendations (NutriRECS) Consortium.

This article has been corrected. The original version (PDF) is appended to this article as a Supplement. Description: Dietary guideline recommendations require consideration of the certainty in the evidence, the magnitude of potential benefits and harms, and explicit consideration of people's values and preferences. A set of recommendations on red meat and processed meat consumption was developed on the basis of 5 de novo systematic reviews that considered all of these issues. Methods: The recommendations were developed by using the Nutritional Recommendations (NutriRECS) guideline development process, which includes rigorous systematic review methodology, and GRADE methods to rate the certainty of evidence for each outcome and to move from evidence to recommendations. A panel of 14 members, including 3 community members, from 7 countries voted on the final recommendations. Strict criteria limited the conflicts of interest among panel members. Considerations of environmental impact or animal welfare did not bear on the recommendations. Four systematic reviews addressed the health effects associated with red meat and processed meat consumption, and 1 systematic review addressed people's health-related values and preferences regarding meat consumption. Recommendations: The panel suggests that adults continue current unprocessed red meat consumption (weak recommendation, low-certainty evidence). Similarly, the panel suggests adults continue current processed meat consumption (weak recommendation, low-certainty evidence). Primary Funding Source: None. (PROSPERO 2017: CRD42017074074; PROSPERO 2018: CRD42018088854).