The Multidimensional, Intersecting Impacts of COVID-19 on Young People's Lives: Evidence From Cross-Sectional Surveys in Mexico, India, and Kenya.

PURPOSE: Studies have documented diverse adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on young people's lives-for instance on mental health, education/employment prospects, and intrafamily violence. We sought to generate much-needed evidence regarding whether, and which, young people are experiencing multiple intersecting effects. METHODS: Data come from cross-sectional surveys with young people ages 15-25 years in Mexico (nationwide, n = 55,692), Kenya (four counties, n = 2,750), and India (two states, n = 3,537), collected from late 2020 to early 2022. We used latent class analysis to identify subgroups based on multiple adverse effects, then examined associations between these subgroups and COVID-19 infections/family deaths, and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: We found prevalent adverse impacts overall and two distinct subgroups in each country-one experiencing higher levels of all impacts, such as on mental health (44%-78% across countries), education/employment (22%-84%), intrafamily violence (22%-49%), and friendships (66%-86%). This subgroup comprised 40% of the sample in Mexico, 25% in Kenya, and 35% in India. In multivariate analyses, this group consistently had greater odds of experiencing COVID-19-related infections and deaths of loved ones. They were more likely socioeconomically disadvantaged, older, urban residents. Associations with other characteristics were country-specific. DISCUSSION: This study provides novel cross-country evidence that a subgroup of young people has experienced intersecting adverse impacts of COVID-19 on their lives. Findings also confirm prior evidence of multiple elevated vulnerabilities in general. Expanded provision of multiple layers of support is required, particularly for the most vulnerable subgroup, as are multi-sectoral policies and interventions to prevent intersectional effects in future times of crisis.

What Are the Drivers of Child Marriage? A Conceptual Framework to Guide Policies and Programs.

PURPOSE: The child marriage field lacks a simplified framework that connects an understanding of the drivers of child marriage for girls to decisions about the design of interventions to delay marriage within different contexts and support married girls. METHODS: We reviewed existing child marriage frameworks and conducted consultations with experts working on child marriage. We then developed a simplified conceptual framework describing the key drivers of child marriage for girls. We explored how these drivers play out and interact using qualitative data from three settings where child marriage is common: Bangladesh, Malawi, and Niger. RESULTS: The final conceptual framework lays out five core drivers of child marriage for girls, which vary and interact across contexts. Social norms and poverty are shown as core drivers that underlie lack of agency, lack of opportunity, and pregnancy/fear of pregnancy. These drivers reflect community, household, and individual-level factors. The case studies highlight the important relationships between these drivers, and the way they interact within each context. We use these examples to explore how policymakers and practitioners might identify the most appropriate interventions to address child marriage across different settings. CONCLUSIONS: We offer this framework as a starting point to guide more targeted interventions and policies that address the complex combination of child marriage drivers within each setting. By adapting this framework to different settings, those designing and implementing child marriage prevention interventions can identify the key drivers in each setting, understand how those drivers interact, and more effectively target effective interventions.

Consistency and predictive ability of fertility preference indicators: longitudinal evidence from rural India.

CONTEXT: Ideal family size and desire for an additional child are the two most commonly used fertility preference indicators. However, little is known about the consistency over time of responses to each measure, the consistency between the two indicators or the predictive value of these indicators in India. METHOD: Longitudinal data from the 1998-1999 National Family Health Survey and a follow-up survey conducted four years later were analyzed to determine the consistency of responses to the two fertility preference indicators (both over time and between indicators) and to determine whether baseline responses were associated with subsequent fertility, unwanted births and contraceptive use. RESULTS: Responses on the measure of ideal family size were consistent at the two time points for 53% of nonsterilized women. Eighty-two percent of women who explicitly said in 1998 that they did not desire more children responded identically in 2002, although about half of these women had given birth in the intervening period. The indicators were associated with each other: Among women with at least one son, 79% of those who had attained or surpassed their ideal family size said they wanted to stop childbearing, compared with 18% of those who had not. Both indicators predicted future fertility, unwanted births and contraceptive use, particularly among women who had a son. CONCLUSION: Both indicators are useful in understanding future fertility behavior. As the prevalence of son preference declines in India, the predictive ability of the indicators is likely to improve.