The age associations of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose: analysis of health examination surveys from international populations.

BACKGROUND: The age association of cardiovascular disease may be in part because its metabolic risk factors tend to rise with age. Few studies have analyzed age associations of multiple metabolic risks in the same population, especially in nationally representative samples. We examined worldwide variations in the age associations of systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol (TC), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used individual records from 83 nationally or subnationally representative health examination surveys in 52 countries to fit a linear model to risk factor data between ages 30 and 64 years for SBP and FPG, and between 30 and 54 years for TC. We report the cross-country variation of the slope and intercept of this relationship. We also assessed nonlinear associations in older ages. Between 30 and 64 years of age, SBP increased by 1.7 to 11.6 mm Hg per 10 years of age, and FPG increased by 0.8 to 20.4 mg/dL per 10 years of age in different countries and in the 2 sexes. Between 30 and 54 years of age, TC increased by 0.2 to 22.4 mg/dL per 10 years of age in different surveys and in the 2 sexes. For all risk factors and in most countries, risk factor levels rose more steeply among women than among men, especially for TC. On average, there was a flattening of age-SBP relationship in older ages; TC and FPG age associations reversed in older ages, leading to lower levels in older ages than in middle ages. CONCLUSIONS: The rise with age of major metabolic cardiovascular disease risk factors varied substantially across populations, especially for FPG and TC. TC rose more steeply in high-income countries and FPG in the Oceania countries, the Middle East, and the United States. The SBP age association had no specific income or geographical pattern.

National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol. METHODS: We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3·0 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean total cholesterol by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, age-standardised mean total cholesterol worldwide was 4·64 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 4·51-4·76) for men and 4·76 mmol/L (4·62-4·91) for women. Globally, mean total cholesterol changed little between 1980 and 2008, falling by less than 0·1 mmol/L per decade in men and women. Total cholesterol fell in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe, and in central and eastern Europe; the regional declines were about 0·2 mmol/L per decade for both sexes, with posterior probabilities of these being true declines 0·99 or greater. Mean total cholesterol increased in east and southeast Asia and Pacific by 0·08 mmol/L per decade (-0·06 to 0·22, posterior probability=0·86) in men and 0·09 mmol/L per decade (-0·07 to 0·26, posterior probability=0·86) in women. Despite converging trends, serum total cholesterol in 2008 was highest in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe; the regional mean was 5·24 mmol/L (5·08-5·39) for men and 5·23 mmol/L (5·03-5·43) for women. It was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 4·08 mmol/L (3·82-4·34) for men and 4·27 mmol/L (3·99-4·56) for women. INTERPRETATION: Nutritional policies and pharmacological interventions should be used to accelerate improvements in total cholesterol in regions with decline and to curb or prevent the rise in Asian populations and elsewhere. Population-based surveillance of cholesterol needs to be improved in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Assessing Medicare's Approach To Covering New Drugs In Bundled Payments For Oncology.

New oncology therapies can contribute to survival or quality of life, but payers and policy makers have raised concerns about the cost of these therapies. Similar concerns extend beyond cancer. In seeking a solution, payers are increasingly turning toward value-based payment models in which providers take financial risk for costs and outcomes. These models, including episode payment and bundled payment, create financial gains for providers who reduce cost, but they also create concerns about potential stinting on necessary treatments. One approach, which the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services adopted in the Oncology Care Model (OCM), is to partially adjust medical practices' budgets for their use of novel therapies, defined in this case as new oncology drugs or new indications for existing drugs approved after December 31, 2014. In an analysis of the OCM novel therapies adjustment using historical Medicare claims data, we found that the adjustment may provide important financial protection for practices. In a simulation we performed, the adjustment reduced the average loss per treatment episode by $758 (from $807 to $49) for large practices that use novel therapies often. Lessons from the OCM can have implications for other alternative payment models.

Inpatient Utilization and Costs for Medicare Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries with Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Although the medical and economic burden of heart failure in the United States is already substantial, it will likely grow as the population ages and life expectancy increases. Not surprisingly, most of the heart failure burden is borne by individuals aged ≥65 years, many of whom are in the Medicare population. The population-based utilization and costs of inpatient care for Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure are not well understood by payers and providers. OBJECTIVE: To create a real-world view of utilization and costs associated with inpatient admissions, readmissions, and admissions to skilled nursing facilities among Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries with heart failure. METHODS: The study used the 2011 and 2012 Medicare 5% sample limited data set to perform a retrospective analysis of claims data. The look-back year that was used to identify certain patient characteristics was 2011, and 2012 was the analysis period for the study. Beneficiaries with heart failure were defined as those who had ≥1 acute inpatient, emergency department, nonacute inpatient, or outpatient claims in 2012 containing an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code for heart failure. To be included in the study, beneficiaries with heart failure had to have eligibility for ≥1 months in 2012 and in all 2011 months, with Part A and Part B eligibility in all the study months, and no enrollment in an HMO (Medicare Advantage plan). Utilization of inpatient admissions, inpatient readmissions, and skilled nursing facility admissions in 2012 were reported for Medicare FFS beneficiaries with heart failure and for all Medicare FFS beneficiaries. The costs for key metrics included all allowed Medicare payments in 2012 US dollars. RESULTS: The 2012 Medicare FFS population for this study consisted of 1,461,935 patients (1,301,545 without heart failure; 160,390 with heart failure); the heart failure prevalence was 11%. The Medicare-allowed cost per member per month (PMPM) was $3395 for a patient with heart failure, whereas the allowed cost for the total Medicare population was $1045 PMPM. The Medicare-allowed amounts for the population with heart failure accounted for 34% of the total annual Medicare FFS population-allowed amounts. The heart failure population constituted 41.5%, 55.3%, and 49.5% of total Medicare FFS inpatient admissions, readmissions, and admissions to skilled nursing facilities, respectively. The costs of inpatient admissions, readmissions, and admissions to skilled nursing facilities among the heart failure population contributed $182 PMPM (17.5%), $58 PMPM (5.6%), and $46 PMPM (4.4%), respectively, to the total Medicare FFS population-allowed cost of $1045 PMPM. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare FFS beneficiaries with heart failure have high inpatient admission and readmission rates and generate substantial costs. Because a substantial portion of all inpatient admissions are for Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure, it is reasonable for hospitals in Medicare accountable care organizations to focus on more aggressive post-acute care management, including a focus on reducing readmissions for the population with heart failure. Our study findings highlight areas of high service utilization and cost for Medicare patients with heart failure that can be of value to Medicare, Medicare Advantage plans, and providers.