A polymorphic p53 response element in KIT ligand influences cancer risk and has undergone natural selection.

The ability of p53 to regulate transcription is crucial for tumor suppression and implies that inherited polymorphisms in functional p53-binding sites could influence cancer. Here, we identify a polymorphic p53 responsive element and demonstrate its influence on cancer risk using genome-wide data sets of cancer susceptibility loci, genetic variation, p53 occupancy, and p53-binding sites. We uncover a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in a functional p53-binding site and establish its influence on the ability of p53 to bind to and regulate transcription of the KITLG gene. The SNP resides in KITLG and associates with one of the largest risks identified among cancer genome-wide association studies. We establish that the SNP has undergone positive selection throughout evolution, signifying a selective benefit, but go on to show that similar SNPs are rare in the genome due to negative selection, indicating that polymorphisms in p53-binding sites are primarily detrimental to humans.

Risk-Stratified Screening for Colorectal Cancer Using Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Based on Real-World Data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening were based on hypothetical performance of CRC risk prediction and did not consider the association with competing causes of death. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening using real-world data for CRC risk and competing causes of death. METHODS: Risk predictions for CRC and competing causes of death from a large community-based cohort were used to stratify individuals into risk groups. A microsimulation model was used to optimize colonoscopy screening for each risk group by varying the start age (40-60 years), end age (70-85 years), and screening interval (5-15 years). The outcomes included personalized screening ages and intervals and cost-effectiveness compared with uniform colonoscopy screening (ages 45-75, every 10 years). Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Risk-stratified screening resulted in substantially different screening recommendations, ranging from a one-time colonoscopy at age 60 for low-risk individuals to a colonoscopy every 5 years from ages 40 to 85 for high-risk individuals. Nevertheless, on a population level, risk-stratified screening would increase net quality-adjusted life years gained (QALYG) by only 0.7% at equal costs to uniform screening or reduce average costs by 1.2% for equal QALYG. The benefit of risk-stratified screening improved when it was assumed to increase participation or costs less per genetic test. CONCLUSIONS: Personalized screening for CRC, accounting for competing causes of death risk, could result in highly tailored individual screening programs. However, average improvements across the population in QALYG and cost-effectiveness compared with uniform screening are small.

A Guide to Selecting Flexible Survival Models to Inform Economic Evaluations of Cancer Immunotherapies.

OBJECTIVES: Parametric models are routinely used to estimate the benefit of cancer drugs beyond trial follow-up. The advent of immune checkpoint inhibitors has challenged this paradigm, and emerging evidence suggests that more flexible survival models, which can better capture the shapes of complex hazard functions, might be needed for these interventions. Nevertheless, there is a need for an algorithm to help analysts decide whether flexible models are required and, if so, which should be chosen for testing. This position article has been produced to bridge this gap. METHODS: A virtual advisory board comprising 7 international experts with in-depth knowledge of survival analysis and health technology assessment was held in summer 2021. The experts discussed 24 questions across 6 topics: the current survival model selection procedure, data maturity, heterogeneity of treatment effect, cure and mortality, external evidence, and additions to existing guidelines. Their responses culminated in an algorithm to inform selection of flexible survival models. RESULTS: The algorithm consists of 8 steps and 4 questions. Key elements include the systematic identification of relevant external data, using clinical expert input at multiple points in the selection process, considering the future and the observed hazard functions, assessing the potential for long-term survivorship, and presenting results from all plausible models. CONCLUSIONS: This algorithm provides a systematic, evidence-based approach to justify the selection of survival extrapolation models for cancer immunotherapies. If followed, it should reduce the risk of selecting inappropriate models, partially addressing a key area of uncertainty in the economic evaluation of these agents.

Population-Based Prevalence of Gastrointestinal Abnormalities at Colon Capsule Endoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The population prevalence of gastrointestinal (GI) disease is unclear and difficult to assess in an asymptomatic population. The aim of this study was to determine prevalence of GI lesions in a largely asymptomatic population undergoing colon capsule endoscopy (CCE). METHODS: Participants aged between 50-75 years were retrieved from the Rotterdam Study, a longitudinal epidemiological study, between 2017-2019. Participants received CCE with bowel preparation. Abnormalities defined as clinically relevant were Barrett segment >3cm, severe ulceration, polyp >10 mm or ≥3 polyps in small bowel (SB) or colon, and cancer. RESULTS: Of 2800 invited subjects, 462 (16.5%) participants (mean age 66.8 years, female 53.5%) ingested the colon capsule. A total of 451 videos were analyzed, and in 94.7% the capsule reached the descending colon. At least 1 abnormal finding was seen in 448 (99.3%) participants. The prevalence of abnormalities per GI segment, and the most common type of abnormality, were as follows: Esophageal 14.8% (Barrett's esophagus <3 cm in 8.3%), gastric 27.9% (fundic gland polyps in 18.1%), SB abnormalities 33.9% (erosions in 23.8%), colon 93.3% (diverticula in 81.2%). A total of 54 participants (12%) had clinically relevant abnormalities, 3 (0.7%) in esophagus/stomach (reflux esophagitis grade D, Mallory Weiss lesion and severe gastritis), 5 (1.1%) in SB (polyps > 10 mm; n = 4, severe ulcer n = 1,) and 46 (10.2%) in colon (polyp > 10 mm or ≥3 polyps n = 46, colorectal cancer n = 1). CONCLUSIONS: GI lesions are very common in a mostly asymptomatic Western population, and clinically relevant lesions were found in 12% at CCE. These findings provide a frame of reference for the prevalence rates of GI lesions in the general population.

Effects of cancer screening restart strategies after COVID-19 disruption.

BACKGROUND: Many breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening programmes were disrupted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to estimate the effects of five restart strategies after the disruption on required screening capacity and cancer burden. METHODS: Microsimulation models simulated five restart strategies for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening. The models estimated required screening capacity, cancer incidence, and cancer-specific mortality after a disruption of 6 months. The restart strategies varied in whether screens were caught up or not and, if so, immediately or delayed, and whether the upper age limit was increased. RESULTS: The disruption in screening programmes without catch-up of missed screens led to an increase of 2.0, 0.3, and 2.5 cancer deaths per 100 000 individuals in 10 years in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer, respectively. Immediately catching-up missed screens minimised the impact of the disruption but required a surge in screening capacity. Delaying screening, but still offering all screening rounds gave the best balance between required capacity, incidence, and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies with the smallest loss in health effects were also the most burdensome for the screening organisations. Which strategy is preferred depends on the organisation and available capacity in a country.

Cumulative Burden of Colorectal Cancer-Associated Genetic Variants Is More Strongly Associated With Early-Onset vs Late-Onset Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC, in persons younger than 50 years old) is increasing in incidence; yet, in the absence of a family history of CRC, this population lacks harmonized recommendations for prevention. We aimed to determine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) developed from 95 CRC-associated common genetic risk variants was associated with risk for early-onset CRC. METHODS: We studied risk for CRC associated with a weighted PRS in 12,197 participants younger than 50 years old vs 95,865 participants 50 years or older. PRS was calculated based on single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CRC in a large-scale genome-wide association study as of January 2019. Participants were pooled from 3 large consortia that provided clinical and genotyping data: the Colon Cancer Family Registry, the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and were all of genetically defined European descent. Findings were replicated in an independent cohort of 72,573 participants. RESULTS: Overall associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS were significant for early-onset cancer, and were stronger compared with late-onset cancer (P for interaction = .01); when we compared the highest PRS quartile with the lowest, risk increased 3.7-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.28-4.24) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.80-3.04). This association was strongest for participants without a first-degree family history of CRC (P for interaction = 5.61 × 10-5). When we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles in this group, risk increased 4.3-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.61-5.01) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.70-3.00). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with these findings. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS, we found the cumulative burden of CRC-associated common genetic variants to associate with early-onset cancer, and to be more strongly associated with early-onset than late-onset cancer, particularly in the absence of CRC family history. Analyses of PRS, along with environmental and lifestyle risk factors, might identify younger individuals who would benefit from preventive measures.

Colorectal Cancer Screening: An Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2016 colorectal cancer screening recommendations. Objective: To provide updated model-based estimates of the benefits, burden, and harms of colorectal cancer screening strategies and to identify strategies that may provide an efficient balance of life-years gained (LYG) from screening and colonoscopy burden to inform the USPSTF. Design, Setting, and Participants: Comparative modeling study using 3 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer screening in a hypothetical cohort of 40-year-old US individuals at average risk of colorectal cancer. Exposures: Screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 years to ages 70, 75, 80, or 85 years with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), multitarget stool DNA testing, flexible sigmoidoscopy alone or with FIT, computed tomography colonography, or colonoscopy. All persons with an abnormal noncolonoscopy screening test result were assumed to undergo follow-up colonoscopy. Screening intervals varied by test. Full adherence with all procedures was assumed. Main Outcome and Measures: Estimated LYG relative to no screening (benefit), lifetime number of colonoscopies (burden), number of complications from screening (harms), and balance of incremental burden and benefit (efficiency ratios). Efficient strategies were those estimated to require fewer additional colonoscopies per additional LYG relative to other strategies. Results: Estimated LYG from screening strategies ranged from 171 to 381 per 1000 40-year-olds. Lifetime colonoscopy burden ranged from 624 to 6817 per 1000 individuals, and screening complications ranged from 5 to 22 per 1000 individuals. Among the 49 strategies that were efficient options with all 3 models, 41 specified screening beginning at age 45. No single age to end screening was predominant among the efficient strategies, although the additional LYG from continuing screening after age 75 were generally small. With the exception of a 5-year interval for computed tomography colonography, no screening interval predominated among the efficient strategies for each modality. Among the strategies highlighted in the 2016 USPSTF recommendation, lowering the age to begin screening from 50 to 45 years was estimated to result in 22 to 27 additional LYG, 161 to 784 additional colonoscopies, and 0.1 to 2 additional complications per 1000 persons (ranges are across screening strategies, based on mean estimates across models). Assuming full adherence, screening outcomes and efficient strategies were similar by sex and race and across 3 scenarios for population risk of colorectal cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: This microsimulation modeling analysis suggests that screening for colorectal cancer with stool tests, endoscopic tests, or computed tomography colonography starting at age 45 years provides an efficient balance of colonoscopy burden and life-years gained.

Cost-effectiveness of Active Identification and Subsequent Colonoscopy Surveillance of Lynch Syndrome Cases.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The province of Ontario, Canada is considering immunohistochemical followed by cascade analyses of all patients who received a diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) at an age younger than 70 years to identify individuals with Lynch syndrome. We evaluated the costs and benefits of testing for Lynch syndrome and determined the optimal surveillance interval for first-degree relatives (FDRs) found to have Lynch syndrome. METHODS: We developed a patient flow diagram to determine costs and yield of immunohistochemical testing for Lynch syndrome in CRC cases and, for those found to have Lynch syndrome, their FDRs, accounting for realistic uptake. Subsequently, we used the MISCAN-colon model to compare costs and benefits of annual, biennial, and triennial surveillance in FDRs identified with Lynch syndrome vs colonoscopy screening every 10 years (usual care for individuals without a diagnosis of Lynch syndrome). RESULTS: Testing 1000 CRC cases was estimated to identify 20 CRC index cases and 29 FDRs with Lynch syndrome at a cost of $310,274. Despite the high cost of Lynch syndrome tests, offering the FDRs with Lynch syndrome biennial colonoscopy surveillance was cost-effective at $8785 per life-year gained compared with usual care because of a substantial increase in life-years gained (+122%) and cost savings in CRC care. Triennial surveillance was more costly and less effective, and annual surveillance showed limited additional benefit compared with biennial surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Immunohistochemical testing for Lynch syndrome in persons younger than 70 years who received a diagnosis of CRC and then testing FDRs of those found to have Lynch syndrome provide a good balance between costs and long-term benefits. Colonoscopy surveillance every 2 years is the optimal surveillance interval for patients with Lynch syndrome.

The impact of the rising colorectal cancer incidence in young adults on the optimal age to start screening: Microsimulation analysis I to inform the American Cancer Society colorectal cancer screening guideline.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon (MISCAN-Colon) model was used to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines. In this study, 1 of 2 microsimulation analyses to inform the update of the American Cancer Society CRC screening guideline, the authors re-evaluated the optimal screening strategies in light of the increase in CRC diagnosed in young adults. METHODS: The authors adjusted the MISCAN-Colon model to reflect the higher CRC incidence in young adults, who were assumed to carry forward escalated disease risk as they age. Life-years gained (LYG; benefit), the number of colonoscopies (COL; burden) and the ratios of incremental burden to benefit (efficiency ratio [ER] = ΔCOL/ΔLYG) were projected for different screening strategies. Strategies differed with respect to test modality, ages to start (40 years, 45 years, and 50 years) and ages to stop (75 years, 80 years, and 85 years) screening, and screening intervals (depending on screening modality). The authors then determined the model-recommended strategies in a similar way as was done for the US Preventive Services Task Force, using ER thresholds in accordance with the previously accepted ER of 39. RESULTS: Because of the higher CRC incidence, model-predicted LYG from screening increased compared with the previous analyses. Consequently, the balance of burden to benefit of screening improved and now 10-yearly colonoscopy screening starting at age 45 years resulted in an ER of 32. Other recommended strategies included fecal immunochemical testing annually, flexible sigmoidoscopy screening every 5 years, and computed tomographic colonography every 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: This decision-analysis suggests that in light of the increase in CRC incidence among young adults, screening may be offered earlier than has previously been recommended. Cancer 2018;124:2964-73. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Optimizing colorectal cancer screening by race and sex: Microsimulation analysis II to inform the American Cancer Society colorectal cancer screening guideline.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk varies by race and sex. This study, 1 of 2 microsimulation analyses to inform the 2018 American Cancer Society CRC screening guideline, explored the influence of race and sex on optimal CRC screening strategies. METHODS: Two Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network microsimulation models, informed by US incidence data, were used to evaluate a variety of screening methods, ages to start and stop, and intervals for 4 demographic subgroups (black and white males and females) under 2 scenarios for the projected lifetime CRC risk for 40-year-olds: 1) assuming that risk had remained stable since the early screening era and 2) assuming that risk had increased proportionally to observed incidence trends under the age of 40 years. Model-based screening recommendations were based on the predicted level of benefit (life-years gained) and burden (required number of colonoscopies), the incremental burden-to-benefit ratio, and the relative efficiency in comparison with strategies with similar burdens. RESULTS: When lifetime CRC risk was assumed to be stable over time, the models differed in the recommended age to start screening for whites (45 vs 50 years) but consistently recommended screening from the age of 45 years for blacks. When CRC risk was assumed to be increased, the models recommended starting at the age of 45 years, regardless of race and sex. Strategies recommended under both scenarios included colonoscopy every 10 or 15 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing, and computed tomographic colonography every 5 years through the age of 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: Microsimulation modeling suggests that CRC screening should be considered from the age of 45 years for blacks and for whites if the lifetime risk has increased proportionally to the incidence for younger adults. Cancer 2018;124:2974-85. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Targeting glutaminolysis in chondrosarcoma in context of the IDH1/2 mutation.

INTRODUCTION: Chondrosarcoma is a malignant cartilage-forming bone tumour in which mutations in IDH1 and IDH2 frequently occur. Previous studies suggest an increased dependency on glutaminolysis in IDH1/2 mutant cells, which resulted in clinical trials with the drugs CB-839, metformin and chloroquine. In this study, the preclinical rationale for using these drugs as a treatment for chondrosarcoma was evaluated. METHODS: Expression of glutaminase was determined in 120 cartilage tumours by immunohistochemistry. Ten chondrosarcoma cell lines were treated with the metabolic compounds CB-849, metformin, phenformin (lipophilic analogue of metformin) and chloroquine. RESULTS: A difference in glutaminase expression levels between the different tumour grades (p = 0.001, one-way ANOVA) was identified, with the highest expression observed in high-grade chondrosarcomas. Treatment with CB-839, metformin, phenformin or chloroquine revealed that chondrosarcoma cell lines are sensitive to glutaminolysis inhibition. Metformin and phenformin decreased mTOR activity in chondrosarcoma cells, and metformin decreased LC3B-II levels, which is counteracted by chloroquine. CONCLUSION: Targeting glutaminolysis with CB-839, metformin, phenformin or chloroquine is a potential therapeutic strategy for a subset of high-grade chondrosarcomas, irrespective of the presence or absence of an IDH1/2 mutation.

No preclinical rationale for IGF1R directed therapy in chondrosarcoma of bone.

BACKGROUND: Chondrosarcoma is a malignant cartilage forming bone tumour for which no effective systemic treatment is available. Previous studies illustrate the need for a better understanding of the role of the IGF pathway in chondrosarcoma to determine if it can be a target for therapy, which was therefore explored in this study. METHODS: Expression of mediators of IGF1R signalling and phosphorylation status of IRS1 was determined in chondrosarcoma cell lines by qRT-PCR and western blot. The effect of activation and inhibition of IGF1R signalling on downstream targets was assessed by western blot. Ten chondrosarcoma cell lines were treated with OSI-906 (IGF1R and IR dual inhibitor) after which cell proliferation and migration were determined by a viability assay and the xCELLigence system, respectively. In addition, four chondrosarcoma cell lines were treated with a combination of doxorubicin and OSI-906. By immunohistochemistry, IGF1R expression levels were determined in tissue microarrays of 187 cartilage tumours and ten paraffin embedded cell lines. RESULTS: Mediators of IGF1R signalling are heterogeneously expressed and phosphorylated IRS1 was detected in 67 % of the tested chondrosarcoma cell lines, suggesting that IGF1R signalling is active in a subset of chondrosarcoma cell lines. In the cell lines with phosphorylated IRS1, inhibition of IGF1R signalling decreased phosphorylated Akt levels and increased IGF1R expression, but it did not influence MAPK or S6 activity. In line with these findings, treatment with IGF1R/IR inhibitors did not impact proliferation or migration in any of the chondrosarcoma cell lines, even upon stimulation with IGF1. Although synergistic effects of IGF1R/IR inhibition with doxorubicin are described for other cancers, our results demonstrate that this was not the case for chondrosarcoma. In addition, we found minimal IGF1R expression in primary tumours in contrast to the high expression detected in chondrosarcoma cell lines, even if both were derived from the same tumour, suggesting that in vitro culturing upregulates IGF1R expression. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study indicate that the IGF pathway is not essential for chondrosarcoma growth, migration or chemoresistance. Furthermore, IGF1R is only minimally expressed in chondrosarcoma primary tumours. Therefore, the IGF pathway is not expected to be an effective therapeutic target for chondrosarcoma of bone.

IR/IGF1R signaling as potential target for treatment of high-grade osteosarcoma.

BACKGROUND: High-grade osteosarcoma is an aggressive tumor most often developing in the long bones of adolescents, with a second peak in the 5th decade of life. Better knowledge on cellular signaling in this tumor may identify new possibilities for targeted treatment. METHODS: We performed gene set analysis on previously published genome-wide gene expression data of osteosarcoma cell lines (n=19) and pretreatment biopsies (n=84). We characterized overexpression of the insulin-like growth factor receptor (IGF1R) signaling pathways in human osteosarcoma as compared with osteoblasts and with the hypothesized progenitor cells of osteosarcoma - mesenchymal stem cells. This pathway plays a key role in the growth and development of bone. Since most profound differences in mRNA expression were found at and upstream of the receptor of this pathway, we set out to inhibit IR/IGF1R using OSI-906, a dual inhibitor for IR/IGF1R, on four osteosarcoma cell lines. Inhibitory effects of this drug were measured by Western blotting and cell proliferation assays. RESULTS: OSI-906 had a strong inhibitory effect on proliferation of 3 of 4 osteosarcoma cell lines, with IC50s below 100 nM at 72 hrs of treatment. Phosphorylation of IRS-1, a direct downstream target of IGF1R signaling, was inhibited in the responsive osteosarcoma cell lines. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an in vitro rationale for using IR/IGF1R inhibitors in preclinical studies of osteosarcoma.

Retrospective Comparison of Survival Projections for CAR T-Cell Therapies in Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Durable remission has been observed in patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL) treated with chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy. Consequently, hazard functions for overall survival (OS) are often complex, requiring the use of flexible methods for extrapolations. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to retrospectively compare the predictive accuracy of different survival extrapolation methods and evaluate the validity of goodness-of-fit (GOF) criteria-based model selection for CAR T-cell therapies in R/R LBCL. METHODS: OS data were sourced from JULIET, ZUMA-1, and TRANSCEND NHL 001. Standard parametric, mixture cure, cubic spline, and mixture models were fit to multiple database locks (DBLs), with varying follow-up durations. GOF was assessed using the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. Predictive accuracy was calculated as the mean absolute error (MAE) relative to OS observed in the most mature DBL. RESULTS: For all studies, mixture cure and cubic spline models provided the best predictive accuracy for the least mature DBL (MAE 0.013‒0.085 and 0.014‒0.128, respectively). The predictive accuracy of the standard parametric and mixture models showed larger variation (MAE 0.024‒0.162 and 0.013‒0.176, respectively). With increasing data maturity, the predictive accuracy of standard parametric models remained poor. Correlation between GOF criteria and predictive accuracy was low, particularly for the least mature DBL. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses demonstrated that mixture cure and cubic spline models provide the most accurate survival extrapolations of CAR T-cell therapies in LBCL. Furthermore, GOF should not be the only criteria used when selecting the optimal survival model.

Modeling Monthly Migraine-Day Distributions Using Longitudinal Regression Models and Linking Quality of Life to Inform Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Case Study of Fremanezumab in Japanese-Korean Migraine Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: As regression approaches have been used more recently to model the effectiveness and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of novel migraine treatments, an example is provided for fremanezumab. The objective is to estimate the distribution of mean monthly migraine days (MMD) as a continuous variable and corresponding migraine-specific utility values as a function of the MMD, to inform health states in a cost-effectiveness model (CEM). METHODS: Three longitudinal regression models (zero-adjusted gamma [ZAGA], zero-inflated beta-binomial [ZIBB], and zero-inflated negative binomial [ZINBI]) were fitted to Japanese-Korean clinical trial data of episodic (EM) and chronic migraine (CM) patients treated with fremanezumab or placebo, to estimate MMD over a period of 12 months. The EQ-5D-5L and the migraine-specific quality-of-life (MSQ), mapped to the EQ-5D-3L, questionnaires were used to measure HRQOL. Migraine-specific utility values were estimated as a function of MMD using a linear mixed effects model. RESULTS: The ZIBB models fitted the data best in estimating the distribution of mean MMD over time. MSQ-derived values were more sensitive than the EQ-5D-5L values for the effect of the number of MMD on HRQOL, with higher values for less MMD and more time on treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Using longitudinal regression models to estimate MMD distributions and linking utility values as a function is an appropriate method to inform CEMs and capture inter-patient heterogeneity. The observed distribution shifts demonstrated fremanezumab's effect at reducing MMD for both EM and CM patients, while treatment effect on HRQOL was captured by MMD and time on treatment.

The current study provides an example of an approach that can be used to estimate the number of migraine days per month and the quality of life of migraine patients. The outcomes of this approach can give an impression of how well a patient reacts to a new migraine treatment called fremanezumab. In this study, different mathematical equations were used to measure the migraine days per month and quality of life over a period of 1 year. The data came from Japanese-Korean patients that participated in clinical trials. The patients reported the number of days that they had migraine and their quality of life was measured with two validated questionnaires. With the gathered data, the quality of life was calculated for the number of migraine days that a patient could have per month. Patients who had the fewest migraine days and were treated the longest with the new treatment reported the best quality of life. The investigated approach is an appropriate method to measure the impact of fremanezumab on the number of monthly migraine days and a patient's quality of life. The measurements of this approach can be linked to other parameters in an economic model to estimate the costs required to reach a certain level of treatment effect with this new migraine treatment.

Validation of a Genetic-Enhanced Risk Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer in a Large Community-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) which summarize individuals' genetic risk profile may enhance targeted colorectal cancer screening. A critical step towards clinical implementation is rigorous external validations in large community-based cohorts. This study externally validated a PRS-enhanced colorectal cancer risk model comprising 140 known colorectal cancer loci to provide a comprehensive assessment on prediction performance. METHODS: The model was developed using 20,338 individuals and externally validated in a community-based cohort (n = 85,221). We validated predicted 5-year absolute colorectal cancer risk, including calibration using expected-to-observed case ratios (E/O) and calibration plots, and discriminatory accuracy using time-dependent AUC. The PRS-related improvement in AUC, sensitivity and specificity were assessed in individuals of age 45 to 74 years (screening-eligible age group) and 40 to 49 years with no endoscopy history (younger-age group). RESULTS: In European-ancestral individuals, the predicted 5-year risk calibrated well [E/O = 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-1.13] and had high discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.76). Adding the PRS to a model with age, sex, family and endoscopy history improved the 5-year AUC by 0.06 (P < 0.001) and 0.14 (P = 0.05) in the screening-eligible age and younger-age groups, respectively. Using a risk-threshold of 5-year SEER colorectal cancer incidence rate at age 50 years, adding the PRS had a similar sensitivity but improved the specificity by 11% (P < 0.001) in the screening-eligible age group. In the younger-age group it improved the sensitivity by 27% (P = 0.04) with similar specificity. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed PRS-enhanced model provides a well-calibrated 5-year colorectal cancer risk prediction and improves discriminatory accuracy in the external cohort. IMPACT: The proposed model has potential utility in risk-stratified colorectal cancer prevention.

Risk Stratification for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Using a Combination of Genetic and Environmental Risk Scores: An International Multi-Center Study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among individuals aged younger than 50 years has been increasing. As screening guidelines lower the recommended age of screening initiation, concerns including the burden on screening capacity and costs have been recognized, suggesting that an individualized approach may be warranted. We developed risk prediction models for early-onset CRC that incorporate an environmental risk score (ERS), including 16 lifestyle and environmental factors, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) of 141 variants. METHODS: Relying on risk score weights for ERS and PRS derived from studies of CRC at all ages, we evaluated risks for early-onset CRC in 3486 cases and 3890 controls aged younger than 50 years. Relative and absolute risks for early-onset CRC were assessed according to values of the ERS and PRS. The discriminatory performance of these scores was estimated using the covariate-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Increasing values of ERS and PRS were associated with increasing relative risks for early-onset CRC (odds ratio per SD of ERS = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 1.20; odds ratio per SD of PRS = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.51 to 1.68), both contributing to case-control discrimination (area under the curve = 0.631, 95% CI = 0.615 to 0.647). Based on absolute risks, we can expect 26 excess cases per 10 000 men and 21 per 10 000 women among those scoring at the 90th percentile for both risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: Personal risk scores have the potential to identify individuals at differential relative and absolute risk for early-onset CRC. Improved discrimination may aid in targeted CRC screening of younger, high-risk individuals, potentially improving outcomes.

Comparative benefit and cost-effectiveness of mailed-out faecal immunochemical tests vs collection at the general practitioner.

BACKGROUND: Participation in the colorectal cancer screening programme in France has been well below the 45% considered acceptable by European guidelines, potentially attributable to the need to collect the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) at the general practitioner. AIM: To estimate the potential benefits and costs of including the FIT in the invitation letter. METHODS: A well-established microsimulation model was used to simulate the French population 35 years and older in 2018. We estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, costs and cost-effectiveness of the current screening programme, and compared it to a variation of the programme where the FIT was mailed to participants and adherence was assumed to increase to 45%. We also estimated the threshold increase in participation needed to make this intervention cost-effective. RESULTS: Under the current programme, 53.8 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and 25.2 CRC deaths per 1000 individuals are expected to occur over a lifetime. If sending out the FIT increases screening participation to 45%, this intervention would result in 6% fewer CRC deaths and 3% fewer CRC cases, resulting in an estimated cost-effectiveness ratio of €2149 per QALY gained. Sending out the FIT would only need to increase participation by 0.7% point for this intervention to be considered cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Including the FIT in the invitation letter is likely a very cost-effective intervention to increase participation in CRC screening. These results for France are also informative for many other countries around the world where FIT needs to be collected at pharmacies or general practitioners.