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1.
Am J Epidemiol ; 191(1): 137-146, 2022 01 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34652416

RESUMO

During the spring of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic caused an unprecedented demand for intensive-care resources in the Lombardy region of Italy. Using data on 43,538 hospitalized patients admitted between February 21 and July 12, 2020, we evaluated variations in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality over the course of 3 periods: the early phase of the pandemic (February 21-March 13), the period of highest pressure on the health-care system (March 14-April 25, when numbers of COVID-19 patients exceeded prepandemic ICU bed capacity), and the declining phase (April 26-July 12). Compared with the early phase, patients aged 70 years or more were less often admitted to an ICU during the period of highest pressure on the health-care system (odds ratio (OR) = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.41, 0.54), with longer ICU delays (incidence rate ratio = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.52, 2.18) and lower chances of dying in the ICU (OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.64). Patients under 56 years of age had more limited changes in the probability of (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.76) and delay to (incidence rate ratio = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.42) ICU admission and increased mortality (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.00, 2.07). In the declining phase, all quantities decreased for all age groups. These patterns may suggest that limited health-care resources during the peak phase of the epidemic in Lombardy forced a shift in ICU admission criteria to prioritize patients with higher chances of survival.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/terapia , Atenção à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/mortalidade , Comorbidade , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2 , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores de Tempo
2.
Soc Sci Res ; 107: 102772, 2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36058612

RESUMO

This article marks the occasion of Social Science Research's 50th anniversary by reflecting on the progress of sequence analysis (SA) since its introduction into the social sciences four decades ago, with focuses on the developments of SA thus far in the social sciences and on its potential future directions. The application of SA in the social sciences, especially in life course research, has mushroomed in the last decade and a half. Using a life course analogy, we examined the birth of SA in the social sciences and its childhood (the first wave), its adolescence and young adulthood (the second wave), and its future mature adulthood in the paper. The paper provides a summary of (1) the important SA research and the historical contexts in which SA was developed by Andrew Abbott, (2) a thorough review of the many methodological developments in visualization, complexity measures, dissimilarity measures, group analysis of dissimilarities, cluster analysis of dissimilarities, multidomain/multichannel SA, dyadic/polyadic SA, Markov chain SA, sequence life course analysis, sequence network analysis, SA in other social science research, and software for SA, and (3) reflections on some future directions of SA including how SA can benefit and inform theory-making in the social sciences, the methods currently being developed, and some remaining challenges facing SA for which we do not yet have any solutions. It is our hope that the reader will take up the challenges and help us improve and grow SA into maturity.


Assuntos
Acontecimentos que Mudam a Vida , Ciências Sociais , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Adulto Jovem
3.
Euro Surveill ; 25(31)2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32762797

RESUMO

We analysed 5,484 close contacts of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Italy, all tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Infection fatality ratio was 0.43% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21-0.79) for individuals younger than 70 years and 10.5% (95% CI: 8.0-13.6) for older individuals. Risk of death after infection was 62% lower (95% CI: 31-80) in clusters identified after 16 March 2020 and 1.8-fold higher for males (95% CI: 1.03-3.16).


Assuntos
Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Coronavirus , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto Jovem
4.
J Manipulative Physiol Ther ; 39(5): 359-368, 2016 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27167368

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were (1) to investigate the relationship between clinical tests detecting spinal instability and the perceived pain and disability in nonspecific low back pain and (2) to investigate the relationship between endurance and instability tests. METHODS: Four instability tests (aberrant movements, active straight leg raising, prone instability test, and passive lumbar extension test) and 2 endurance tests (prone bridge test [PBT] and supine bridge test [SBT]) were performed on 101 participants. Their results were compared with the Numerical Rating Scale and the Oswestry Disability Index evaluating pain and disability, respectively. RESULTS: A low to moderate significant relationship between pain, disability, and all tests with the exception of PBT was observed. A low to moderate significant relationship between endurance tests and instability tests was also shown. The results of PBT and SBT were significantly related to the duration of symptoms (P = .0014 and P = .0203, respectively). CONCLUSION: The results of endurance and instability tests appear to be related to the amount of pain and the disability in nonspecific low back pain. The persistence of pain significantly reduces anterior and posterior core muscle endurance.


Assuntos
Dor Lombar/diagnóstico , Dor Lombar/fisiopatologia , Vértebras Lombares/fisiopatologia , Resistência Física/fisiologia , Adulto , Avaliação da Deficiência , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fadiga Muscular , Exame Físico/métodos , Resultado do Tratamento
5.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord ; 15: 135, 2014 Apr 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24758356

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In a previous study we described the translation, cultural adaptation, and validation of the Italian version of the PTPSQ [PTPSQ-I(15)] in outpatients. To the authors' knowledge, the PTPSQ was never studied in a hospital setting.The aims of this study were: (1) to establish the psychometric properties of the Physical Therapy Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire [PTPSQ- I(15)] in a sample of Italian inpatients, and (2) to investigate the relationships between the characteristics of patients and physical therapists and the indicators of satisfaction. METHODS: The PTPSQ-I(15) was administered to inpatients in a Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Unit. Reliability of the PTPSQ-I(15) was measured by internal consistency (Cronbach's α) and test-retest stability (ICC 3,1). The internal structure was investigated by factor analysis. Divergent validity was measured by comparing the PTPSQ-I(15) with a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for pain and with a 5-point Likert-type scale evaluating the Global Perceived Effect (GPE) of the physical therapy treatment. RESULTS: The PTPSQ-I(15) was administered to 148 inpatients, and 73 completed a second administration. The PTPSQ-I(15) showed high internal consistency (α = 0.949) and test-retest stability (ICC = 0.996). Divergent validity was moderate for the GPE (r = - 0.502, P < 0.001) and strong for the VAS (r = -0.17, P = 0.07). Factor analysis showed a one-factor structure. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of PTPSQ-I(15) to inpatients demonstrated strong psychometric properties and its use can be recommended with Italian-speaking population. Further studies are suggested on the concurrent validity and on the psychometric properties of the PTPSQ-I(15) in different hospital settings or with other pathological conditions.


Assuntos
Pacientes Internados , Satisfação do Paciente , Modalidades de Fisioterapia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Itália , Idioma , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Avaliação de Processos e Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Psicometria , Indicadores de Qualidade em Assistência à Saúde , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto Jovem
6.
J Manipulative Physiol Ther ; 37(9): 647-59, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25282678

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were (1) to investigate the relationship between the main clinical tests to detect spinal instability, the perceived pain and disability, and symptomatic spondylolisthesis (SPL) characteristics, (2) to investigate the relationship between endurance and instability tests, and (3) to measure the diagnostic accuracy of these tests in unstable SPL diagnosed against dynamic radiographs. METHODS: Four instability tests were evaluated on 119 subjects: aberrant movements, active straight leg raising (ASLR), prone instability test, and passive lumbar extension test (PLE); and 2 endurance tests, prone bridge test and supine bridge test (SBT). The results were compared with the numeric rating scale for pain and the Oswestry Disability Index for disability. These tests were used as index tests and compared with dynamic radiographs as reference standard on 64 subjects. RESULTS: A significant relationship between disability and all the clinical tests but ASLR was observed. The relation between tests and pain was weaker, not significant for prone instability test and aberrant movement and critical for ASLR (P = .05). There was a low relationship between endurance tests and instability tests. Only PLE showed a significant association with dynamic radiographs (P = .017). CONCLUSION: Endurance and instability tests appear to be weakly related to the amount of pain but significantly related to the disability in symptomatic SPL. Of the tests evaluated, PLE exhibited the best ability to predict positive dynamic radiographs.


Assuntos
Avaliação da Deficiência , Teste de Esforço/métodos , Instabilidade Articular/diagnóstico , Resistência Física/fisiologia , Espondilolistese/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Análise de Variância , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Itália , Instabilidade Articular/reabilitação , Modelos Logísticos , Vértebras Lombares/fisiopatologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Medição da Dor , Exame Físico/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Fatores Sexuais , Espondilolistese/reabilitação , Estatísticas não Paramétricas , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto Jovem
7.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord ; 14: 125, 2013 Apr 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23560848

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although patient satisfaction is a relevant outcome measure for health care providers, few satisfaction questionnaires have been generally available to physical therapists or have been validated in an Italian population for use in the outpatient setting. The aim of this study was to translate, culturally adapt, and validate the Italian version of the Physical Therapy Outpatient Satisfaction Survey (PTOPS). METHODS: The Italian version of the PTOPS (PTOPS-I) was developed through forward-backward translation, review, and field-testing a pre-final version. The reliability of the final questionnaire was measured by internal consistency and test-retest stability at 7 days. Factor analysis was also used to explore construct validity. Concurrent validity was measured by comparing PTOPS-I with a 5-point Likert-type scale measure assessing the Global Perceived Effect (GPE) of the treatment and with a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). RESULTS: 354 outpatients completed the PTOPS-I, and 56 took the re-test. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) of the original domains (Enhancers, Detractors, Location, and Cost) was 0.758 for Enhancers, 0.847 for Detractors, 0.885 for Location, and 0.706 for Cost. The test-retest stability (Intra-class Correlation Coefficients) was 0.769 for Enhancers, 0.893 for Detractors, 0.862 for Location, and 0.862 for Cost. The factor analysis of the Italian version revealed a structure into four domains, named Depersonalization, Inaccessibility, Ambience, and Cost. Concurrent validity with GPE was significantly demonstrated for all domains except Inaccessibility. Irrelevant or non-significant correlations were observed with VAS. CONCLUSION: The PTOPS-I showed good psychometric properties. Its use can be suggested for Italian-speaking outpatients who receive physical therapy.


Assuntos
Assistência Ambulatorial/normas , Comparação Transcultural , Doenças Musculoesqueléticas/etnologia , Satisfação do Paciente/etnologia , Modalidades de Fisioterapia/normas , Inquéritos e Questionários/normas , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/etnologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Musculoesqueléticas/diagnóstico , Doenças Musculoesqueléticas/terapia , Psicometria , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Autorrelato/normas , Adulto Jovem
8.
Eur J Popul ; 40(1): 1, 2023 Dec 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38114806

RESUMO

Sequence analysis is employed in different fields-e.g., demography, sociology, and political sciences-to describe longitudinal processes represented as sequences of categorical states. In many applications, sequences are clustered to identify relevant types, which reflect the different empirical realisations of the temporal process under study. We explore criteria to inspect internal cluster composition and to detect deviant sequences, that is, cases characterised by rare patterns or outliers that might compromise cluster homogeneity. We also introduce tools to visualise and distinguish the features of regular and deviant cases. Our proposals offer a more accurate and granular description of the data structure, by identifying-besides the most typical types-peculiar sequences that might be interesting from a substantive and theoretical point of view. This analysis could be very useful in applications where-under the assumption of within homogeneity-clusters are used as outcome or explanatory variables in regressions. We demonstrate the added value of our proposal in a motivating application from life-course socio-demography, focusing on Italian women's employment trajectories and on their link with their mothers' participation in the labour market across geographical areas.

9.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(7): e2115699, 2021 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34228126

RESUMO

Importance: Identifying health care settings and professionals at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial to defining appropriate strategies, resource allocation, and protocols to protect health care workers (HCWs) and patients. Moreover, such information is crucial to decrease the risk that HCWs and health care facilities become amplifiers for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. Objective: To assess the association of different health care professional categories and operational units, including in-hospital wards, outpatient facilities, and territorial care departments, with seroprevalence and odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using IgG serological tests collected from April 1 through May 26, 2020, in the Lombardy region in Italy. Voluntary serological screening was offered to all clinical and nonclinical staff providing any health care services or support to health care services in the region. Data were analyzed from June 2020 through April 2021. Exposures: Employment in the health care sector. Main Outcomes and Measures: Seroprevalence of positive IgG antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 was collected, and odds ratios of experiencing infection were calculated. Results: A total of 140 782 professionals employed in the health sector were invited to participate in IgG serological screening, among whom 82 961 individuals (59.0% response rate) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, with median (interquartile range [IQR]; range) age, 50 (40-56; 19-83) years and 59 839 (72.1%) women. Among these individuals, 10 115 HCWs (12.2%; 95% CI, 12.0%-12.4%) had positive results (median [IQR; range] age, 50 [39-55; 20-80] years; 7298 [72.2%] women). Statistically significantly higher odds of infection were found among health assistants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.48; 95% CI, 1.33-1.65) and nurses (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.17-1.41) compared with administrative staff and among workers employed in internal medicine (aOR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.87-2.68), palliative care (aOR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.38-2.44), rehabilitation (aOR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.33-1.91), and emergency departments (aOR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.29-1.89) compared with those working as telephone operators. Statistically significantly lower odds of infection were found among individuals working in forensic medicine (aOR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.19-0.88), histology and anatomical pathology (aOR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52-0.97), and medical device sterilization (aOR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.35-0.84) compared with those working as telephone operators. The odds of infection for physicians and laboratory personnel were not statistically significantly different from those found among administrative staff. The odds of infection for workers employed in intensive care units and infectious disease wards were not statistically significantly different from those of telephone operators. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that professionals partially accustomed to managing infectious diseases had higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The findings further suggest that adequate organization of clinical wards and personnel, appropriate personal protective equipment supply, and training of all workers directly and repeatedly exposed to patients with clinical or subclinical COVID-19 should be prioritized to decrease the risk of infection in health care settings.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pessoal de Saúde , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Pandemias , Adulto , COVID-19/sangue , COVID-19/virologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G/sangue , Controle de Infecções , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Equipamento de Proteção Individual , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos
10.
Epidemics ; 37: 100530, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34826786

RESUMO

Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2-43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever ≥ 37.5 °C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3-25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4-2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4-30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3-10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1-0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9-19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1-2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9-30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3-21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6-19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Busca de Comunicante , Humanos , Saúde Pública , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
11.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(3): e211085, 2021 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33688964

RESUMO

Importance: Solid estimates of the risk of developing symptoms and of progressing to critical disease in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are key to interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) dynamics, identifying the settings and the segments of the population where transmission is more likely to remain undetected, and defining effective control strategies. Objective: To estimate the association of age with the likelihood of developing symptoms and the association of age with the likelihood of progressing to critical illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed quarantined case contacts, identified between February 20 and April 16, 2020, in the Lombardy region of Italy. Contacts were monitored daily for symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, by either real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction using nasopharyngeal swabs or retrospectively via IgG serological assays. Close contacts of individuals with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were selected as those belonging to clusters (ie, groups of contacts associated with an index case) where all individuals were followed up for symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data were analyzed from February to June 2020. Exposure: Close contact with individuals with confirmed COVID-19 cases as identified by contact tracing operations. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-specific estimates of the risk of developing respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C and of experiencing critical disease (defined as requiring intensive care or resulting in death) in SARS-CoV-2-infected case contacts. Results: In total, 5484 case contacts (median [interquartile range] age, 50 [30-61] years; 3086 female contacts [56.3%]) were analyzed, 2824 of whom (51.5%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median [interquartile range] age, 53 [34-64] years; 1604 female contacts [56.8%]). The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms ranged from 18.1% (95% CI, 13.9%-22.9%) among participants younger than 20 years to 64.6% (95% CI, 56.6%-72.0%) for those aged 80 years or older. Most infected contacts (1948 of 2824 individuals [69.0%]) did not develop respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C. Only 26.1% (95% CI, 24.1%-28.2%) of infected individuals younger than 60 years developed respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C; among infected participants older than 60 years, 6.6% (95% CI, 5.1%-8.3%) developed critical disease. Female patients were 52.7% (95% CI, 24.4%-70.7%) less likely than male patients to develop critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusions and Relevance: In this Italian cohort study of close contacts of patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, more than one-half of individuals tested positive for the virus. However, most infected individuals did not develop respiratory symptoms or fever. The low proportion of children and young adults who developed symptoms highlights the possible challenges in readily identifying SARS-CoV-2 infections.


Assuntos
COVID-19/fisiopatologia , Portador Sadio/epidemiologia , Tosse/epidemiologia , Dispneia/epidemiologia , Febre/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Teste de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19 , Teste Sorológico para COVID-19 , Dor no Peito/epidemiologia , Dor no Peito/fisiopatologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Busca de Comunicante , Tosse/fisiopatologia , Estado Terminal , Progressão da Doença , Dispneia/fisiopatologia , Feminino , Febre/fisiopatologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Faringite/epidemiologia , Faringite/fisiopatologia , Quarentena , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2 , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Taquipneia/epidemiologia , Taquipneia/fisiopatologia , Adulto Jovem
12.
Epidemics ; 37: 100528, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34814093

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the night of February 20, 2020, the first epidemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outside Asia was uncovered by the identification of its first patient in Lombardy region, Italy. In the following weeks, Lombardy experienced a sudden increase in the number of ascertained infections and strict measures were imposed to contain the epidemic spread. METHODS: We analyzed official records of cases occurred in Lombardy to characterize the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early phase of the outbreak. A line list of laboratory-confirmed cases was set up and later retrospectively consolidated, using standardized interviews to ascertained cases and their close contacts. We provide estimates of the serial interval, of the basic reproduction number, and of the temporal variation of the net reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Epidemiological investigations detected over 500 cases (median age: 69, IQR: 57-78) before the first COVID-19 diagnosed patient (February 20, 2020), and suggested that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in at least 222 out of 1506 (14.7%) municipalities with sustained transmission across all the Lombardy provinces. We estimated the mean serial interval to be 6.6 days (95% CrI, 0.7-19). Our estimates of the basic reproduction number range from 2.6 in Pavia (95% CI, 2.1-3.2) to 3.3 in Milan (95% CI, 2.9-3.8). A decreasing trend in the net reproduction number was observed following the detection of the first case. CONCLUSIONS: At the time of first case notification, COVID-19 was already widespread in the entire Lombardy region. This may explain the large number of critical cases experienced by this region in a very short timeframe. The slight decrease of the reproduction number observed in the early days after February 20, 2020 might be due to increased population awareness and early interventions implemented before the regional lockdown imposed on March 8, 2020.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Idoso , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
13.
Adv Life Course Res ; 41: 100251, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36738029

RESUMO

We survey state-of-the-art approaches to study trajectories in their entirety, adopting a holistic perspective, and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. We begin by considering sequence analysis (SA), one of the most established holistic approaches. We discuss the inherent problems arising in SA, particularly in the study of the relationship between trajectories and covariates. We describe some recent developments combining SA and Event History Analysis, and illustrate how weakening the holistic perspective-focusing on sub-trajectories-might result in a more flexible analysis of life courses. We then move to some model-based approaches (included in the broad classes of multistate and of mixture latent Markov models) that further weaken the holistic perspective, assuming that the difficult task of predicting and explaining trajectories can be simplified by focusing on the collection of observed transitions. Our goal is twofold. On one hand, we aim to provide social scientists with indications for informed methodological choices and to emphasize issues that require consideration for proper application of the described approaches. On the other hand, by identifying relevant and open methodological challenges, we highlight and encourage promising directions for future research.

14.
PLoS One ; 11(9): e0163730, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27684998

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and people's choices about life course events describing the transition to parenthood-sexual debut, union (in the form of marriage, cohabitation, or long-term relationship), and parenthood-is still unclear. A crucial role in shaping this relationship may be played by the sequence of these events and by their timing. This suggests the opportunity to focus on the life courses in their entirety rather than on the specific events, thus adopting a holistic approach that regards each individual's life course trajectory as a whole. METHODS: We summarise the individual life courses describing the transition to parenthood using ordered sequences of the three considered events. We aim to (i) investigate the association between the sequences and HIV infection, and (ii) understand how these sequences interact with known mechanisms for HIV transmission, such as the length of sexual exposure and the experience of non-regular sexual partnerships. For this purpose, we use data from a general population cohort study run in Manicaland (Zimbabwe), a Sub-Saharan African area characterised by high HIV prevalence. RESULTS: For both genders, individuals who experienced either premarital or delayed childbearing have higher HIV risk compared to individuals following more standard transitions. This can be explained by the interplay of the sequences with known HIV proximate determinants, e.g., a longer exposure to sexual activity and higher rates of premarital sex. Moreover, we found that people in the younger birth cohorts experience more normative and safer sequences. CONCLUSIONS: The shift of younger generations towards more normative transitions to parenthood is a sign of behaviour change that might have contributed to the observed reduction in HIV prevalence in the area. On the other hand, for people with less normative transitions, targeted strategies are essential for HIV prevention.

15.
Demography ; 50(3): 881-902, 2013 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23430480

RESUMO

We discuss a unified approach to the description and explanation of life course patterns represented as sequences of states observed in discrete time. In particular, we study life course data collected as part of the Dutch Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS) to learn about the family formation behavior of 1,897 women born between 1953 and 1962. Retrospective monthly data were available on each 18- to 30-year-old woman living either with or without children as single, married, or cohabiting. We first study via a nonparametric approach which factors explain the pairwise dissimilarities observed between life courses. Permutation distribution inference allows for the study of the statistical significance of the effect of a set of covariates of interest. We then develop a parametric model for the sequence-generating process that can be used to describe state transitions and durations conditional on covariates and conditional on having observed an initial segment of the trajectory. Fitting of the proposed model and the corresponding model selection process are based on the observed data likelihood. We discuss the application of the methods to the FFS.


Assuntos
Características da Família , Previsões/métodos , Casamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos , Adolescente , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Países Baixos , Paridade , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto Jovem
16.
Phys Ther ; 93(7): 911-22, 2013 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23559520

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Patient satisfaction is an important measure for evaluating interventions in health care. No patient satisfaction questionnaire for physical therapy treatment has been validated to date for use in an Italian outpatient population. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to translate, culturally adapt, and validate the Italian version of the Physical Therapy Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PTPSQ-I). DESIGN: A measurement study was conducted. METHODS: The PTPSQ-I was developed through forward-backward translation, final review, and pre-final version. An acceptability analysis was first conducted. Reliability was measured by internal consistency (Cronbach α), and a factor analysis was applied to investigate the internal structure. Divergent validity was measured by comparing the PTPSQ-I with a visual analog scale (VAS) and with a 5-point Likert-type scale evaluating the global perceived effect (GPE) for the physical therapy treatment. RESULTS: The process for developing the PTPSQ-I required 3 months using data on 315 outpatients. Based on our initial analyses, 5 items were deleted from the PTPSQ-I, which was renamed the PTPSQ-I(15). The PTPSQ-I(15) showed high internal consistency (α=.905). Divergent validity was moderate for the GPE (r=.33) but not significant for the VAS (r=-.07). A factor analysis revealed evidence for a 2-factor structure related to perceived "Overall Experience" and "Professional Impression" that explained 62% of the total variance. A third factor, "Efficiency and Convenience," brought explained total variance to near 70%. LIMITATIONS: It may be necessary to add items to the PTPSQ-I(15) to assess other dimensions not currently represented by these 15 items. CONCLUSION: The PTPSQ-I(15) showed good psychometric properties, and its use can be recommended with Italian-speaking outpatient populations.


Assuntos
Satisfação do Paciente , Modalidades de Fisioterapia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Fatores Etários , Cultura , Emprego , Análise Fatorial , Feminino , Humanos , Itália , Estudos de Linguagem , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Avaliação de Processos e Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Psicometria , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores Sexuais
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