Increases and decreases in liver stiffness measurement are independently associated with the risk of liver-related events in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical significance of change in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well-understood. We prospectively defined rates of progression to and regression from LSM-defined compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and their associations with liver-related events (LREs). METHODS: Participants in the NASH Clinical Research Network-led NAFLD Database 2 and 3 studies were included. Progression to cACLD was defined as reaching LSM ≥10 kPa in participants with LSM <10 kPa on initial VCTE; regression from cACLD was defined as reaching LSM <10 kPa in participants with baseline LSM ≥10 kPa. LREs were defined as liver-related death, liver transplant, hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD >15, development of varices, or hepatic decompensation. Univariate and multivariable interval-censored Cox regression analyses were used to compare the cumulative LRE probability by LSM progression and regression status. RESULTS: In 1,403 participants, 89 LREs developed over a mean follow-up of 4.4 years, with an annual incidence rate for LREs of 1.5 (95% CI 1.2-1.8). In participants at risk, progression to LSM ≥10 or ≥15 kPa occurred in 29% and 17%, respectively, whereas regression to LSM <10 or <15 kPa occurred in 44% and 49%, respectively. Progressors to cACLD (≥10 kPa) experienced a higher cumulative LRE rate vs. non-progressors (16% vs. 4%, adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% (1.8-8.9); p <0.01). Regressors from cACLD (to LSM <10 kPa) experienced a lower LRE rate than non-regressors (7% vs. 32%, adjusted hazard ratio 0.25; 95% CI 0.10-0.61; p <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Change in LSM over time is independently and bi-directionally associated with risk of LRE and is a non-invasive surrogate for clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The prognostic value of change in LSM in patients with NAFLD is not well understood. In this large prospective study of patients with NAFLD and serial vibration-controlled transient elastography exams, baseline and dynamic changes in LSM were associated with the risk of developing liver-related events. LSM is a useful non-invasive surrogate of clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD.

Immunocompromised-Associated Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Experience From the 2016/2017 Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize immunocompromised-associated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (I-PARDS) and contrast it to PARDS. DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of the 2016-2017 PARDS incidence and epidemiology (PARDIE) study, a prospective observational, cross-sectional study of children with PARDS. SETTING: Dataset of 145 PICUs across 27 countries. PATIENTS: During 10 nonconsecutive weeks (from May 2016 to June 2017), data about immunocompromising conditions (ICCs, defined as malignancy, congenital/acquired immunodeficiency, posttransplantation, or diseases requiring immunosuppression) were collected. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 708 subjects, 105 (14.8%) had ICC. Before the development of I-PARDS, those with ICC were more likely to be hospitalized (70% vs. 35%, p < 0.001), have more at-risk for PARDS ( p = 0.046), and spent more hours at-risk (20 [interquartile range, IQR: 8-46] vs. 11 [IQR: 4-33], [ p = 0.002]). Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) use was more common in those with ICC ( p < 0.001). Of those diagnosed with PARDS on NIV ( n = 161), children with ICC were more likely to be subsequently intubated ( n = 28/40 [70%] vs n = 53/121 [44%], p = 0.004). Severe PARDS was more common (32% vs 23%, p < 0.001) in I-PARDS. Oxygenation indices were higher at diagnosis and had less improvement over the first 3 days of PARDS ( p < 0.001). Children with I-PARDS had greater nonpulmonary organ dysfunction. Adjusting for Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV and oxygenation index, children with I-PARDS had a higher severity of illness-adjusted PICU mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.0 [95% CI, 1.9-4.7] p < 0.001) and were less likely to be extubated alive within 28 days (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.71] p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: I-PARDS is a unique subtype of PARDS associated with hospitalization before diagnosis and increased: time at-risk for PARDS, NIV use, hypoxia, nonpulmonary organ dysfunction, and mortality. The opportunity for early detection and intervention seems to exist. Dedicated study in these patients is imperative to determine if targeted interventions will benefit these unique patients with the ultimate goal of improving outcomes.

Clinical Outcomes After Tracheostomy in Children With Single Ventricle Physiology: Collaborative Research From the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Society Multicenter Cohort, 2010-2021.

OBJECTIVES: Multicenter studies reporting outcomes following tracheostomy in children with congenital heart disease are limited, particularly in patients with single ventricle physiology. We aimed to describe clinical characteristics and outcomes in a multicenter cohort of patients with single ventricle physiology who underwent tracheostomy before Fontan operation. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective cohort study.SETTING: Twenty-one tertiary care pediatric institutions participating in the Collaborative Research from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Society. PATIENTS: We reviewed 99 children with single ventricle physiology who underwent tracheostomy before the Fontan operation at 21 institutions participating in Collaborative Research from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Society between January 2010 and December 2020, with follow-up through December 31, 2021. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Death occurred in 51 of 99 patients (52%). Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to determine factors associated with death after tracheostomy. Results are presented as hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CIs. Nonrespiratory indication(s) for tracheostomy (HR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.14-4.32) and number of weeks receiving mechanical ventilation before tracheostomy (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.11) were independently associated with greater hazard of death. In contrast, diagnosis of tricuspid atresia or Ebstein's anomaly was associated with less hazard of death (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.69). Favorable outcome, defined as survival to Fontan operation or decannulation while awaiting Fontan operation with viable cardiopulmonary physiology, occurred in 29 of 99 patients (29%). Median duration of mechanical ventilation before tracheostomy was shorter in patients who survived to favorable outcome (6.1 vs. 12.1 wk; p < 0.001), and only one of 16 patients with neurologic indications for tracheostomy and 0 of ten patients with cardiac indications for tracheostomy survived to favorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: For children with single ventricle physiology who undergo tracheostomy, mortality risk is high and should be carefully considered when discussing tracheostomy as an option for these children. Favorable outcomes are possible, although thoughtful attention to patient selection and tracheostomy timing are likely necessary to achieve this goal.

Significant Dose-Response Association of Physical Activity and Diet Quality With Mortality in Adults With Suspected NAFLD in a Population Study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to determine whether higher levels (volume and intensity) of physical activity (PA) and diet quality (DQ) are associated with better survival rates in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: Using data from the 2011-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 3,548 participants with a Fatty Liver Index ≥60 were included. PA was collected using a wrist-worn triaxial accelerometer and expressed as 2 metrics using Monitor-Independent Movement Summary (MIMS) units: the average of daily MIMS, which represents volume, and peak 30-minute MIMS, which is the average of the highest 30 MIMS min/d and represents intensity. DQ was assessed by the Healthy Eating Index-2015. Mortality follow-up was recorded using the National Death Index linkage through December 31, 2019. RESULTS: Our analyses revealed a dose-dependent, nonlinear association of PA (volume and intensity) with all-cause mortality and a dose-dependent, linear association of DQ with all-cause mortality. The maximum protective dose of PA volume was observed at 14,300 MIMS/min (adj. HR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.11-0.38). The maximum protective dose of PA intensity was observed at 54.25 MIMS/min (adj. HR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.23), beyond which mortality risks flattened. The Healthy Eating Index-2015 showed its maximum protective effect at 66.17 (adj. HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.40-0.74). Higher PA (volume and intensity) levels were associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular-related but not cancer-related mortality. A healthier diet was linked to a reduced risk of cardiovascular-specific and cancer-specific mortality. Sensitivity analyses showed that the beneficial effects of PA and DQ on survival rates remained significant across sex, racial/ethnic, and age groups as well as in participants without NAFLD. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that higher daily accumulated and peak effort PA and DQ are associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in US adults with NAFLD.

The prognostic impact of acute kidney injury recovery patterns in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) recovery patterns in critically ill patients with cirrhosis is unknown. We aimed to compare mortality stratified by AKI recovery patterns and identify predictors of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AKI admitted to the intensive care unit. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and AKI from 2016 to 2018 at 2 tertiary care intensive care units were analyzed (N=322). AKI recovery was defined by Acute Disease Quality Initiative consensus: return of serum creatinine <0.3 mg/dL of baseline within 7 days of AKI onset. Recovery patterns were categorized by Acute Disease Quality Initiative consensus: 0-2 days, 3-7 days, and no-recovery (persistence of AKI >7 d). Landmark competing risk univariable and multivariable models (liver transplant as competing risk) was used to compare 90-day mortality between AKI recovery groups and to determine independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Sixteen percent (N=50) and 27% (N=88) achieved AKI recovery within 0-2 and 3-7 days, respectively; 57% (N=184) had no-recovery. Acute on chronic liver failure was prevalent (83%) and patients with no-recovery were more likely to have grade 3 acute on chronic liver failure (N=95, 52%) compared to patients with AKI recovery [0-2: 16% (N=8); 3-7: 26% (N=23); p<0.001]. Patients with no-recovery had significantly higher probability of mortality [unadjusted-sub-HR (sHR): 3.55; 95% CI: 1.94-6.49; p<0.001] compared to patients with recovery within 0-2 days, while the probability was similar between 3-7 and 0-2 days (unadjusted-sub-HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 0.91-3.20; p=0.09). On multivariable analysis, AKI no-recovery (sub-HR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.33-3.24; p=0.001), severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sub-HR: 2.41; 95% CI: 1.20-4.83; p=0.01), and ascites (sub-HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.05-2.44; p=0.03) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: AKI no-recovery occurs in over half of critically ill patients with cirrhosis and AKI and is associated with worse survival. Interventions that facilitate AKI recovery may improve outcomes in this patient population.

High-quality diet, physical activity, and college education are associated with low risk of NAFLD among the US population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The effects of diet quality (DQ), physical activity (PA), and socioeconomic status (SES) on the risk of NAFLD are unclear. We examined the association among DQ, PA, SES, and NAFLD risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 2017-2018, which included 3589 participants with reliable information on vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) measurements, 24-h dietary recalls, PA, and SES. DQ was assessed by the Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015. PA was determined by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire. SES was assessed by the educational attainment and family poverty income ratio (PIR). Risk of NAFLD was considered by means of a composite outcome using VCTE measurements: non-NAFLD versus NAFLD without clinically significant fibrosis (CSF) versus NAFLD with CSF. The NAFLD risk was lower in physically active (≥600 metabolic equivalent of task [MET] min/week) versus inactive participants (<600 MET min/week) (OR: 0.71, p = 0.043). A high-quality diet (HQD) (HEI > 56.64) was associated with a lower risk of NAFLD (OR: 0.58, p < 0.01) compared with a non-HQD. The lowest NAFLD risk was observed in those physically active with HQD (OR: 0.43, p < 0.01). Body mass index and waist circumference significantly mediated the effect of DQ and PA on NAFLD risk. Education (college or above) (OR: 0.65, p = 0.034), but not PIR, was associated with a reduced NAFLD risk. HQD and increased PA partially mediated the effect of education on NAFLD risk. The total effect of education on NAFLD risk mediated by DQ was 29% and by PA was 8%. CONCLUSIONS: HQD, increased physical activity, and college education were associated with lower NAFLD risk in the US population.

Improving Outcomes for Bronchiolitis Patients After Implementing a High-Flow Nasal Cannula Holiday and Standardizing Discharge Criteria in a PICU.

OBJECTIVES: To decrease length of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC), PICU, and hospital length of stay (LOS). DESIGN: Quality improvement project. SETTING: A quaternary academic PICU. PATIENTS: Patients with bronchiolitis less than 24 months old. INTERVENTIONS: After initial implementation of a respiratory therapist (RT)-driven HFNC protocol (Plan-Do-Study-Act [PDSA] 1) in October 2017, additional interventions included adjusting HFNC wean rate (PDSA 2) in July 2020, a HFNC holiday (PDSA 3), and standardized discharge criteria (PDSA 4) in October 2021. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Duration of HFNC was used as the primary outcome measure. PICU LOS and hospital LOS were used as secondary outcome measures. Noninvasive ventilation use, invasive mechanical ventilation use, and 7-day PICU and hospital readmission rates were used as balancing measures. A total of 1,310 patients were included in this study. Patients in PDSA 2, PDSA 3 and 4 groups were older compared with pre-intervention and PDSA 1 (median of 9 and 10 mo compared with 8 mo; p = 0.01). HFNC duration decreased from 2.5 to 1.8 days after PDSA 1, then to 1.3 days after PDSA 2. PICU LOS decreased from 2.6 to 2.1 days after PDSA 1, 1.8 days after PDSA 2, and 1.5 days after PDSA 3 and 4. Hospital LOS decreased from 5.7 to 4.5 days after PDSA 1, 3.1 days after PDSA 2, and 2.7 days after PDSA 3 and 4. The use of noninvasive ventilation and invasive mechanical ventilation decreased throughout the study from 23.2% in the pre-intervention group, to 6.9% at the end of the project. The 7-day PICU and hospital readmission rates did not increase after implementation. The percentage of patients discharged from the PICU increased from 6.2% to 21.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Modifications to an existing RT-driven HFNC protocol and standardization of discharge criteria led to an improvement in outcomes for patients admitted to the PICU with bronchiolitis without an increase in adverse events.

Critical Care and Mechanical Ventilation Practices Surrounding Liver Transplantation in Children: A Multicenter Collaborative.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine which characteristics and management approaches were associated with postoperative invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and with a prolonged course of IMV in children post liver transplant as well as describing the utilization of critical care resources. DESIGN: Retrospective, multicenter, cohort study of children who underwent an isolated liver transplantation between January 2017 and December 2018. SETTING: Twelve U.S., pediatric, liver transplant centers. PATIENTS: Three hundred thirty children post liver transplant admitted to the ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Six patients died in our cohort. The median length of PICU stay was 4.5 days (interquartile range [IQR], 2.9-8.2 d). Most patients were initially monitored with arterial catheters (96%), central venous pressures (95%), and liver ultrasound (93%). Anticoagulation (80%), blood product administration (52.4%), and vasoactive agents (23.0%) were commonly used therapies in the first 7 days. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.9 [0.86-0.95]), open fascia (aOR 7.0 [95% CI, 2.6-18.9]), large center size (aOR 4.3 [95% CI 2.2-8.3]), and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease/Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease scores (aOR 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06]) were associated with postoperative IMV. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, postoperative day 0 peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) (aOR 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.3]), large center size (aOR 2.9 [95% CI, 1.6-5.4]), and age (aOR 0.89 [95% CI, 0.85-0.95]) were associated with length of IMV greater than 24 hours. Length of IMV greater than 24 hours was associated with bleeding complications ( p = 0.03), infections ( p = 0.03), graft loss ( p = 0.02), and reoperation ( p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age, preoperative hospitalization, large center size, and open fascia are associated with use of IMV, and younger age, large center size, and postoperative day 0 PIP are associated with prolonged IMV on multivariable analysis. Longer IMV is associated with negative outcomes, making it an important clinical marker.

Risk Factors Associated With Development of Multiple-Organ Dysfunction Syndrome After Pediatric Drowning.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe a single-center experience of pediatric drowning and to investigate risk factors associated with the development of pediatric multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) after drowning events. METHODS: A single-center retrospective case-control study was performed at a tertiary children's hospital examining patients aged 1 month to 25 years who were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit after a drowning event. The study period was June 2016 to June 2021. Patients who developed MODS at day 1 of intensive care admission were compared with those who did not. RESULTS: A total of 48 patients with a median age of 2.3 years were included. Twenty-nine (60%) had MODS at 24 hours. Those with MODS at 24 hours were more likely to require cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), required longer duration of CPR, and had longer submersion times; otherwise, there were no differences in baseline characteristics. Those who developed MODS at 24 hours had longer lengths of stays, longer lengths of mechanical ventilation, and higher mortality. Multiple admission parameters were evaluated based on MODS-free survival at 24 hours. On univariable analysis, patients without MODS-free survival at 24 hours had higher rates of CPR, higher blood glucose on admission, higher illness severity scores, higher lactates, and lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores. A multivariable model was constructed using risk factors at presentation that were significant on univariable analysis; blood glucose greater than 200 mg/dL was associated with decreased odds of MODS-free survival at 24 hours after controlling for CPR administration of greater than 5 minutes and body temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Development of MODS in pediatric drowning is associated with worse patient outcomes. Hyperglycemia was identified as a potentially modifiable risk factor for the development of MODS at 24 hours and could serve as a useful prognostic parameter in this unique patient population.

Assessment of ST2 for risk of death following graft-versus-host disease in pediatric and adult age groups.

Assessment of prognostic biomarkers of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in the pediatric age group is lacking. To address this need, we conducted a prospective cohort study with 415 patients at 6 centers: 170 were children age 10 years or younger and 245 were patients older than age 10 years (both children and adults were accrued from 2013 to 2018). The following 4 plasma biomarkers were assessed pre-HCT and at days +7, +14, and +21 post-HCT: stimulation-2 (ST2), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1), regenerating islet-derived protein 3α (REG3α), and interleukin-6 (IL-6). We performed landmark analyses for NRM, dichotomizing the cohort at age 10 years or younger and using each biomarker median as a cutoff for high- and low-risk groups. Post-HCT biomarker analysis showed that ST2 (>26 ng/mL), TNFR1 (>3441 pg/mL), and REG3α (>25 ng/mL) are associated with NRM in children age 10 years or younger (ST2: hazard ratio [HR], 9.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.74-30.38; P = .0003; TNFR1: HR, 4.29; 95% CI, 1.48-12.48; P = .0073; REG3α: HR, 7.28; 95% CI, 2.05-25.93; P = .0022); and in children and adults older than age 10 years (ST2: HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.15-5.86; P = .021; TNFR1: HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 0.96-4.58; P = .06; and REG3α: HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.19-5.55; P = .016). When pre-HCT biomarkers were included, only ST2 remained significant in both cohorts. After adjustment for significant covariates (race/ethnicity, malignant disease, graft, and graft-versus-host-disease prophylaxis), ST2 remained associated with NRM only in recipients age 10 years or younger (HR, 4.82; 95% CI, 1.89-14.66; P = .0056). Assays of ST2, TNFR1, and REG3α in the first 3 weeks after HCT have prognostic value for NRM in both children and adults. The presence of ST2 before HCT is a prognostic biomarker for NRM in children age 10 years or younger allowing for additional stratification. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02194439.

A Randomized Trial of a Family-Support Intervention in Intensive Care Units.

BACKGROUND: Surrogate decision makers for incapacitated, critically ill patients often struggle with decisions related to goals of care. Such decisions cause psychological distress in surrogates and may lead to treatment that does not align with patients' preferences. METHODS: We conducted a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial involving patients with a high risk of death and their surrogates in five intensive care units (ICUs) to compare a multicomponent family-support intervention delivered by the interprofessional ICU team with usual care. The primary outcome was the surrogates' mean score on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at 6 months (scores range from 0 to 42, with higher scores indicating worse symptoms). Prespecified secondary outcomes were the surrogates' mean scores on the Impact of Event Scale (IES; scores range from 0 to 88, with higher scores indicating worse symptoms), the Quality of Communication (QOC) scale (scores range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better clinician-family communication), and a modified Patient Perception of Patient Centeredness (PPPC) scale (scores range from 1 to 4, with lower scores indicating more patient- and family-centered care), as well as the mean length of ICU stay. RESULTS: A total of 1420 patients were enrolled in the trial. There was no significant difference between the intervention group and the control group in the surrogates' mean HADS score at 6 months (11.7 and 12.0, respectively; beta coefficient, -0.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.67 to 0.99; P=0.61) or mean IES score (21.2 and 20.3; beta coefficient, 0.90; 95% CI, -1.66 to 3.47; P=0.49). The surrogates' mean QOC score was better in the intervention group than in the control group (69.1 vs. 62.7; beta coefficient, 6.39; 95% CI, 2.57 to 10.20; P=0.001), as was the mean modified PPPC score (1.7 vs. 1.8; beta coefficient, -0.15; 95% CI, -0.26 to -0.04; P=0.006). The mean length of stay in the ICU was shorter in the intervention group than in the control group (6.7 days vs. 7.4 days; incidence rate ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.00; P=0.045), a finding mediated by the shortened mean length of stay in the ICU among patients who died (4.4 days vs. 6.8 days; incidence rate ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.78; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among critically ill patients and their surrogates, a family-support intervention delivered by the interprofessional ICU team did not significantly affect the surrogates' burden of psychological symptoms, but the surrogates' ratings of the quality of communication and the patient- and family-centeredness of care were better and the length of stay in the ICU was shorter with the intervention than with usual care. (Funded by the UPMC Health System and the Greenwall Foundation; PARTNER ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01844492 .).

Procalcitonin-Guided Use of Antibiotics for Lower Respiratory Tract Infection.

BACKGROUND: The effect of procalcitonin-guided use of antibiotics on treatment for suspected lower respiratory tract infection is unclear. METHODS: In 14 U.S. hospitals with high adherence to quality measures for the treatment of pneumonia, we provided guidance for clinicians about national clinical practice recommendations for the treatment of lower respiratory tract infections and the interpretation of procalcitonin assays. We then randomly assigned patients who presented to the emergency department with a suspected lower respiratory tract infection and for whom the treating physician was uncertain whether antibiotic therapy was indicated to one of two groups: the procalcitonin group, in which the treating clinicians were provided with real-time initial (and serial, if the patient was hospitalized) procalcitonin assay results and an antibiotic use guideline with graded recommendations based on four tiers of procalcitonin levels, or the usual-care group. We hypothesized that within 30 days after enrollment the total antibiotic-days would be lower - and the percentage of patients with adverse outcomes would not be more than 4.5 percentage points higher - in the procalcitonin group than in the usual-care group. RESULTS: A total of 1656 patients were included in the final analysis cohort (826 randomly assigned to the procalcitonin group and 830 to the usual-care group), of whom 782 (47.2%) were hospitalized and 984 (59.4%) received antibiotics within 30 days. The treating clinician received procalcitonin assay results for 792 of 826 patients (95.9%) in the procalcitonin group (median time from sample collection to assay result, 77 minutes) and for 18 of 830 patients (2.2%) in the usual-care group. In both groups, the procalcitonin-level tier was associated with the decision to prescribe antibiotics in the emergency department. There was no significant difference between the procalcitonin group and the usual-care group in antibiotic-days (mean, 4.2 and 4.3 days, respectively; difference, -0.05 day; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.6 to 0.5; P=0.87) or the proportion of patients with adverse outcomes (11.7% [96 patients] and 13.1% [109 patients]; difference, -1.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.6 to 1.7; P<0.001 for noninferiority) within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The provision of procalcitonin assay results, along with instructions on their interpretation, to emergency department and hospital-based clinicians did not result in less use of antibiotics than did usual care among patients with suspected lower respiratory tract infection. (Funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences; ProACT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02130986 .).

Relationship of Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Score with Pediatric Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Histology and Response to Vitamin E or Metformin.

OBJECTIVES: To study the diagnostic performance of the enhanced liver fibrosis score (ELF) for detecting different stages of fibrosis and its usefulness in detecting histologic response to vitamin E or metformin in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease who participated in the Vitamin E or Metformin for the Treatment Of NAFLD In Children (TONIC) trial. STUDY DESIGN: ELF was measured at baseline and weeks 24, 48, and 96 on sera from 166 TONIC participants. Associations between ELF with baseline and end of trial (EOT) fibrosis stages and other histologic features were assessed using χ2 tests and logistic regression models. RESULTS: ELF was significantly associated with severity of fibrosis at baseline and EOT. ELF areas under the curve for discriminating patients with clinically significant and advanced fibrosis were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60-0.80) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69-0.89), respectively. A 1-unit decrease in ELF at EOT was associated with overall histologic improvement (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.11-3.14; P = .02), resolution of steatohepatitis (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.09-3.25; P = .02), improvement in steatosis grade (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.06-2.82; P = .03), and hepatocellular ballooning (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.06-3.00; P = .03), but not with improvement in fibrosis stage (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.78-2.03; P = .34). CONCLUSIONS: ELF was associated with fibrosis stage in children who participated in TONIC. Although not associated with improvement in fibrosis, a decrease in ELF at EOT was associated with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis resolution and improvement in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease histology. ELF may be a useful noninvasive test to monitor treatment response in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Karnofsky performance status predicts outcomes in candidates for simultaneous liver-kidney transplant.

Karnofsky performance status (KPS), a measure of physical frailty, predicts pre-transplant and post-transplant outcomes in liver transplantation, but has not been assessed in simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation (SLKT). We examined the association between KPS and outcomes in SLKT waitlist registrants and recipients (2005-2018) in the UNOS database. KPS was categorized into A (able to work), B (able to provide self-care), and C (unable to provide self-care). Cox regression and competing risk analysis were used to assess the association between KPS groups and outcomes. A total of 10,785 patients were waitlisted (KPS: 19% A, 46% B, 35% C), and 5,516 underwent SLKT (12% A, 36% B, 52% C). One-year waitlist mortality was 17%, 22%, and 32% for KPS A, B, and C, respectively. In adjusted competing risk regression, KPS C was associated with increased waitlist mortality (SHR 1.15, 95%CI 1.04-1.28). One-year post-transplant survival was 92%, 91%, and 87% for KPS A, B, and C, respectively. In adjusted Cox regression, KPS C was associated with increased post-transplant mortality (HR 1.32, 95%CI 1.08-1.61). It was also associated with increased liver and kidney graft losses and with hospital length of stay. Frailty, as assessed by KPS, is associated with poor outcomes in SLKT pre- and post-transplant.

Development, validation, and proof-of-concept implementation of a two-year risk prediction model for undiagnosed atrial fibrillation using common electronic health data (UNAFIED).

BACKGROUND: Many patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remain undiagnosed despite availability of interventions to reduce stroke risk. Predictive models to date are limited by data requirements and theoretical usage. We aimed to develop a model for predicting the 2-year probability of AF diagnosis and implement it as proof-of-concept (POC) in a production electronic health record (EHR). METHODS: We used a nested case-control design using data from the Indiana Network for Patient Care. The development cohort came from 2016 to 2017 (outcome period) and 2014 to 2015 (baseline). A separate validation cohort used outcome and baseline periods shifted 2 years before respective development cohort times. Machine learning approaches were used to build predictive model. Patients ≥ 18 years, later restricted to age ≥ 40 years, with at least two encounters and no AF during baseline, were included. In the 6-week EHR prospective pilot, the model was silently implemented in the production system at a large safety-net urban hospital. Three new and two previous logistic regression models were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristics. Number, characteristics, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores of patients identified by the model in the pilot are presented. RESULTS: After restricting age to ≥ 40 years, 31,474 AF cases (mean age, 71.5 years; female 49%) and 22,078 controls (mean age, 59.5 years; female 61%) comprised the development cohort. A 10-variable model using age, acute heart disease, albumin, body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, gender, heart failure, insurance, kidney disease, and shock yielded the best performance (C-statistic, 0.80 [95% CI 0.79-0.80]). The model performed well in the validation cohort (C-statistic, 0.81 [95% CI 0.8-0.81]). In the EHR pilot, 7916/22,272 (35.5%; mean age, 66 years; female 50%) were identified as higher risk for AF; 5582 (70%) had CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2. CONCLUSIONS: Using variables commonly available in the EHR, we created a predictive model to identify 2-year risk of developing AF in those previously without diagnosed AF. Successful POC implementation of the model in an EHR provided a practical strategy to identify patients who may benefit from interventions to reduce their stroke risk.

Early, Goal-Directed Therapy for Septic Shock - A Patient-Level Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: After a single-center trial and observational studies suggesting that early, goal-directed therapy (EGDT) reduced mortality from septic shock, three multicenter trials (ProCESS, ARISE, and ProMISe) showed no benefit. This meta-analysis of individual patient data from the three recent trials was designed prospectively to improve statistical power and explore heterogeneity of treatment effect of EGDT. METHODS: We harmonized entry criteria, intervention protocols, outcomes, resource-use measures, and data collection across the trials and specified all analyses before unblinding. After completion of the trials, we pooled data, excluding the protocol-based standard-therapy group from the ProCESS trial, and resolved residual differences. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included 1-year survival, organ support, and hospitalization costs. We tested for treatment-by-subgroup interactions for 16 patient characteristics and 6 care-delivery characteristics. RESULTS: We studied 3723 patients at 138 hospitals in seven countries. Mortality at 90 days was similar for EGDT (462 of 1852 patients [24.9%]) and usual care (475 of 1871 patients [25.4%]); the adjusted odds ratio was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.14; P=0.68). EGDT was associated with greater mean (±SD) use of intensive care (5.3±7.1 vs. 4.9±7.0 days, P=0.04) and cardiovascular support (1.9±3.7 vs. 1.6±2.9 days, P=0.01) than was usual care; other outcomes did not differ significantly, although average costs were higher with EGDT. Subgroup analyses showed no benefit from EGDT for patients with worse shock (higher serum lactate level, combined hypotension and hyperlactatemia, or higher predicted risk of death) or for hospitals with a lower propensity to use vasopressors or fluids during usual resuscitation. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis of individual patient data, EGDT did not result in better outcomes than usual care and was associated with higher hospitalization costs across a broad range of patient and hospital characteristics. (Funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences and others; PRISM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02030158 .).

Decreased Quality of Life Is Significantly Associated With Body Composition in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We studied impaired quality of life (QOL) and its determinants among individuals with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: We collected data from 341 patients with NAFLD who completed the short form 36 (SF-36) questionnaire. Body composition and liver fibrosis were assessed in patients with NAFLD using bioelectrical impedance and transient elastography, respectively. Advanced fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) of 12.1 kPa or greater. SF-36 scores of patients with NAFLD were compared with SF36 scores of individuals with chronic medical illnesses and the general population obtained from the published literature. RESULTS: Among patients with NAFLD, percent body fat was negatively associated with scores from all 8 SF-36 scales, whereas lean body mass was positively associated with scores from 5 of 8 SF-36 scales. On multivariable analysis, SF-36 PF scores were negatively associated with type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and LSM and positively associated with lean body mass and level of alanine aminotransferase. Patients with NAFLD, and even those without advanced fibrosis, had significantly lower mean QOL scores than the control group or the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with NAFLD, even those without advanced fibrosis, have lower QOL than controls. Body composition associates with QOL in patients with NAFLD; both of the modifiable factors independently associated with QOL are related to body composition. Further studies are needed to investigate if interventions to improve body composition can increase QOL for patients with NAFLD.

Associations Between Mean Arterial Pressure and Poor ICU Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients With Cirrhosis: Is 65 The Sweet Spot?

OBJECTIVES: Mean arterial pressure is critically important in patients with cirrhosis in the ICU, however, there is limited data to guide therapies and targets. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Tertiary care ICU. PATIENTS: Two hundred and seventy-three critically ill patients with cirrhosis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We performed a comprehensive time-weighted mean arterial pressure analysis (time-weighted-average-mean arterial pressure and cumulative-time-below various mean arterial pressure-thresholds) during the first 24-hours after ICU admission (median: 25 mean arterial pressure measurements per-patient). Time-weighted-average-mean arterial pressure captures both the severity and duration of hypotension below a mean arterial pressure threshold and cumulative-time-below is the total time spent below a mean arterial pressure threshold. Individual univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were assessed for each time-weighted-average-mean arterial pressure and cumulative-time-below mean arterial pressure threshold (55, 60, 65, 70, and 75 mm Hg) for ICU-mortality. Time-weighted-average-mean arterial pressure: for 1 mm Hg decrease in mean arterial pressure below 75, 70, 65, 60, and 55 mm Hg, the odds for ICU-mortality were 14%, 18%, 26%, 41%, and 74%, respectively (p < 0.01, all thresholds). The association between time-weighted-average-mean arterial pressure and ICU-mortality for each threshold remained significant after adjusting for model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor use, renal replacement therapy, grade 3/4 hepatic encephalopathy, WBC count, and albumin. Cumulative-time-below: odds for ICU-mortality were 4%, 6%, 10%, 12%, and 12% for each-hour spent below 75, 70, 65, 60, and 55 mm Hg, respectively. In the adjusted models, significant associations only remained for mean arterial pressure less than 65 mm Hg (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00-1.14; p = 0.05) and < 60 mm Hg (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.18; p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that maintaining a mean arterial pressure of greater than 65 mm Hg may be a reasonable target in patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. However, further prospective randomized trials are needed to determine the optimal mean arterial pressure-targets in this patient population.

A Multicenter Study of the Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Expectations About Prognosis by Surrogate Decision-Makers in ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: Optimistic expectations about prognosis by surrogate decision-makers in ICUs are common, but there are few data about the causes and clinical consequences. Our objective was to determine the causes of optimistic expectations about prognosis among surrogates and whether it is associated with more use of life support at the end of life. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study from 2009 to 2012. SETTING: Twelve ICUs from multiple regions of the United States. SUBJECTS: The surrogates and physicians of 275 incapacitated ICU patients at high risk of death. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Surrogates and physicians completed a validated instrument assessing their prognostic expectations for hospital survival. We determined the proportion of surrogates with optimistic expectations, defined as a prognostic estimate that was at least 20% more optimistic than the physician's, then determined how frequently this arose from surrogates miscomprehending the physicians' prognosis versus holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. We used multivariable regression to examine whether optimistic expectations were associated with length of stay, stratified by survival status, and time to withdrawal of life support among nonsurvivors. Overall, 45% of surrogates (95% CI, 38-51%) held optimistic expectations about prognosis, which arose from a combination of misunderstanding the physician's prognostic expectations and from holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. Optimistic expectations by surrogates were associated with significantly longer duration of ICU treatment among nonsurvivors before death (ß coefficient = 0.44; 95% CI, 0.05-0.83; p = 0.027), corresponding to a 56% longer ICU stay. This difference was associated with a significantly longer time to withdrawal of life support among dying patients whose surrogates had optimistic prognostic expectations compared with those who did not (ß coefficient = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.16-1.07; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent optimism about prognosis among surrogates in ICUs arises both from surrogates' miscomprehension of physicians' prognostications and from surrogates holding more hopeful beliefs. This optimism is associated with longer duration of life support at the end of life.

Effects of Physician-targeted Pay for Performance on Use of Spontaneous Breathing Trials in Mechanically Ventilated Patients.

RATIONALE: Pay for performance is an increasingly common quality improvement strategy despite the absence of robust supporting evidence. OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of a financial incentive program rewarding physicians for the completion of daily spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs) in three academic hospitals. METHODS: We compared data from mechanically ventilated patients from 6 months before to 2 years after introduction of a financial incentive program that provided annual payments to critical care physicians contingent on unit-level SBT completion rates. We used Poisson regression to compare the frequency of days on which SBTs were completed among eligible patients and days on which patients were excluded from SBT eligibility among all mechanically ventilated patients. We used multivariate regression to compare risk-adjusted duration of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The cohort included 7,291 mechanically ventilated patients with 75,621 ventilator days. Baseline daily SBT rates were 96.8% (hospital A), 16.4% (hospital B), and 74.7% (hospital C). In hospital A, with the best baseline performance, there was no change in SBT rates, exclusion rates, or duration of mechanical ventilation across time periods. In hospitals B and C, with lower SBT completion rates at baseline, there was an increase in daily SBT completion rates and a concomitant increase in exclusions from eligibility. Duration of mechanical ventilation decreased in hospital C but not in hospital B. Mortality was unchanged for all hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: In hospitals with low baseline SBT completion, physician-targeted financial incentives were associated with increased SBT rates driven in part by increased exclusion rates, without consistent improvements in outcome.