Differences in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the long-term trajectories of life satisfaction by sex in the UK: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected women's mental health, with most evidence focused on mental ill-health outcomes. Previous research suggests that differences in time-use might explain this disparity, as women generally spent more time doing psychologically taxing activities than men. We investigated (1) sex differences in the impact of the pandemic in the long-term trajectories of life satisfaction and (2) whether time-use differences partly explained that differential impact. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we used the 1970 British Cohort Study, a birth cohort representing people born in Great Britain in 1970. Since 1970, information has been collected for all cohort members every 4-10 years (ten sweeps). Additional data were collected at three timepoints during the pandemic (May 2020, September-October 2020, February-March 2021) as part of the COVID-19 Survey. Response rates within the target population ranged between 23·6% (May, 2020) and 32·5% (March, 2021) in the COVID-19 Survey. We used non-response weights to restore sample representativeness to the target population (cohort members alive and residing in the UK during the pandemic). Life satisfaction was prospectively assessed at ages 26 (1996), 30, 34, 42, 46, 50, 50·5, and 51 years (2021) using a single question with responses ranging from 0 (lowest life satisfaction) to 10 (highest life satisfaction). We used multiple-group piecewise latent growth curve models grouped by sex assigned at birth. Additional models were adjusted for self-reported number of hours spent working, volunteering, home-schooling children, taking care of children and other people, and doing housework during the pandemic. Participants provided verbal informed consent. Ethics approval was not sought as non-sensitive, open-access data with minimal risk of identification was used. FINDINGS: We analysed data from 6766 adults (3799 [56·2%] women and 2967 [43·8%] men). Compared with men, women had consistently higher levels of life satisfaction before the pandemic (Δintercept,unadjusted = 0·213, 95% CI 0·087 to 0·340, p=0·0009), and experienced a more accelerated decline with its onset (Δquad2,unadjusted = -0·018, -0·026 to -0·011; p<0·0001), even after accounting for time use (Δquad2,adjusted = -0·016, -0·031 to -0·001; p=0·0348). Results were robust to adjustment for concurrent financial and occupational situation (Δquad2,adjustedfull = -0·019, -0·035 to -0·004; p=0·0158). INTERPRETATION: Our study shows sex inequalities in the impact of the pandemic on the long-term life satisfaction trajectories of adults in their 50s. Self-reported time-use differences did not account for these inequalities. One of the limitations is that we relied on self-reported time-use and were not able to include factors like the so-called mental load (being responsible for organising or monitoring activities, regardless of being involved in their execution), which might partly explain these results. FUNDING: Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Centre for Society and Mental Health at King's College London.

Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research.

Causal inference is essential across the biomedical, behavioural and social sciences.By progressing from confounded statistical associations to evidence of causal relationships, causal inference can reveal complex pathways underlying traits and diseases and help to prioritize targets for intervention. Recent progress in genetic epidemiology - including statistical innovation, massive genotyped data sets and novel computational tools for deep data mining - has fostered the intense development of methods exploiting genetic data and relatedness to strengthen causal inference in observational research. In this Review, we describe how such genetically informed methods differ in their rationale, applicability and inherent limitations and outline how they should be integrated in the future to offer a rich causal inference toolbox.

Life-course social participation and physical activity in midlife: longitudinal associations in the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70).

A hypothesized benefit of social participation is that it encourages people to be more physically active. However, limited evidence exists on the association between social participation over the life-course and physical activity in midlife. We sought to apply a life-course framework to examine the association of social participation and device measured physical activity in midlife in the UK. We used the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study (BCS70), which includes all people born in Britain during a single week in 1970. Social participation was assessed at ages 16, 30, 34 and 42. Physical activity was measured by accelerometery at age 46, as mean daily step count and time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). The associations of social participation and physical activity were tested using two different life-course models: the sensitive period model and the accumulation model. Individuals with medium and high participation compared to no social participation over their life-course had higher mean daily step count and MVPA in midlife, supporting the accumulation model. In the sensitive period model, only those that actively participated at age 42 had higher mean daily steps and MVPA compared to those who did not participate. Our study provides empirical evidence on the importance of sustaining social participation at all ages over the life-course rather than at a particular timepoint of someone's life. If our findings reflect causal effects, interventions to promote social participation throughout the life-course could be an avenue to promote physical activity in middle life.

Using natural language processing to facilitate the harmonisation of mental health questionnaires: a validation study using real-world data.

BACKGROUND: Pooling data from different sources will advance mental health research by providing larger sample sizes and allowing cross-study comparisons; however, the heterogeneity in how variables are measured across studies poses a challenge to this process. METHODS: This study explored the potential of using natural language processing (NLP) to harmonise different mental health questionnaires by matching individual questions based on their semantic content. Using the Sentence-BERT model, we calculated the semantic similarity (cosine index) between 741 pairs of questions from five questionnaires. Drawing on data from a representative UK sample of adults (N = 2,058), we calculated a Spearman rank correlation for each of the same pairs of items, and then estimated the correlation between the cosine values and Spearman coefficients. We also used network analysis to explore the model's ability to uncover structures within the data and metadata. RESULTS: We found a moderate overall correlation (r = .48, p < .001) between the two indices. In a holdout sample, the cosine scores predicted the real-world correlations with a small degree of error (MAE = 0.05, MedAE = 0.04, RMSE = 0.064) suggesting the utility of NLP in identifying similar items for cross-study data pooling. Our NLP model could detect more complex patterns in our data, however it required manual rules to decide which edges to include in the network. CONCLUSIONS: This research shows that it is possible to quantify the semantic similarity between pairs of questionnaire items from their meta-data, and these similarity indices correlate with how participants would answer the same two items. This highlights the potential of NLP to facilitate cross-study data pooling in mental health research. Nevertheless, researchers are cautioned to verify the psychometric equivalence of matched items.

A quantitative approach to the intersectional study of mental health inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in UK young adults.

PURPOSE: Mental health inequalities across social identities/positions during the COVID-19 pandemic have been mostly reported independently from each other or in a limited way (e.g., at the intersection between age and sex or gender). We aim to provide an inclusive socio-demographic mapping of different mental health measures in the population using quantitative methods that are consistent with an intersectional perspective. METHODS: Data included 8,588 participants from two British cohorts (born in 1990 and 2000-2002, respectively), collected in February/March 2021 (during the third UK nationwide lockdown). Measures of anxiety and depressive symptomatology, loneliness, and life satisfaction were analysed using Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA) models. RESULTS: We found evidence of large mental health inequalities across intersectional strata. Large proportions of those inequalities were accounted for by the additive effects of the variables used to define the intersections, with some of the largest gaps associated with sexual orientation (with sexual minority groups showing substantially worse outcomes). Additional inequalities were found by cohort/generation, birth sex, racial/ethnic groups, and socioeconomic position. Intersectional effects were observed mostly in intersections defined by combinations of privileged and marginalised social identities/positions (e.g., lower-than-expected life satisfaction in South Asian men in their thirties from a sexual minority and a disadvantaged childhood social class). CONCLUSION: We found substantial inequalities largely cutting across intersectional strata defined by multiple co-constituting social identities/positions. The large gaps found by sexual orientation extend the existing evidence that sexual minority groups were disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Study implications and limitations are discussed.

Long-term psychological distress trajectories and the COVID-19 pandemic in three British birth cohorts: A multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests that population mental health outcomes have worsened since the pandemic started. The extent that these changes have altered common age-related trends in psychological distress, where distress typically rises until midlife and then falls after midlife in both sexes, is unknown. We aimed to analyse whether long-term pre-pandemic psychological distress trajectories were disrupted during the pandemic, and whether these changes have been different across cohorts and by sex. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from three nationally representative birth cohorts comprising all people born in Great Britain in a single week of 1946 (National Survey of Health and Development, NSHD), 1958 (National Child Development Study, NCDS), or 1970 (British Cohort Study, BCS70). The follow-up data used spanned 39 years in NSHD (1982 to 2021), 40 years in NCDS (1981 to 2001), and 25 years in BCS70 (1996 to 2021). We used psychological distress factor scores, as measured by validated self-reported questionnaires (NSHD: Present State Examination, Psychiatric Symptoms Frequency, and 28- and 12-item versions of General Health Questionnaire; NCDS and BCS70: Malaise Inventory; all: 2-item versions of Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale and Patient Health Questionnaire). We used a multilevel growth curve modelling approach to model the trajectories of distress across cohorts and sexes and obtained estimates of the differences between the distress levels observed during the pandemic and those observed at the most recent pre-pandemic assessment and at the peak in the cohort-specific pre-pandemic distress trajectory, located at midlife. We further analysed whether pre-existing cohort and sex inequalities had changed with the pandemic onset using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. The analytic sample included 16,389 participants. By September/October 2020, distress levels had reached or exceeded the levels of the peak in the pre-pandemic life-course trajectories, with larger increases in younger cohorts (standardised mean differences [SMD] and 95% confidence intervals of SMDNSHD,pre-peak = -0.02 [-0.07, 0.04], SMDNCDS,pre-peak = 0.05 [0.02, 0.07], and SMDBCS70,pre-peak = 0.09 [0.07, 0.12] for the 1946, 1958, and 1970 birth cohorts, respectively). Increases in distress were larger among women than men, widening pre-existing sex inequalities (DiD and 95% confidence intervals of DiDNSHD,sex,pre-peak = 0.17 [0.06, 0.28], DiDNCDS,sex,pre-peak = 0.11 [0.07, 0.16], and DiDBCS70,sex,pre-peak = 0.11 [0.05, 0.16] when comparing sex inequalities in the pre-pandemic peak in midlife to those observed by September/October 2020). As expected in cohort designs, our study suffered from high proportions of attrition with respect to the original samples. Although we used non-response weights to restore sample representativeness to the target populations (those born in the United Kingdom in 1946, 1958, and 1970, alive and residing in the UK), results may not be generalisable to other sections within the UK population (e.g., migrants and ethnic minority groups) and countries different than the UK. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing long-term psychological distress trajectories of adults born between 1946 and 1970 were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among women, who reached the highest levels ever recorded in up to 40 years of follow-up data. This may impact future trends of morbidity, disability, and mortality due to common mental health problems.

Home working and social and mental wellbeing at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: Evidence from 7 longitudinal population surveys.

BACKGROUND: Home working has increased since the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's onset with concerns that it may have adverse health implications. We assessed the association between home working and social and mental wellbeing among the employed population aged 16 to 66 through harmonised analyses of 7 UK longitudinal studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated associations between home working and measures of psychological distress, low life satisfaction, poor self-rated health, low social contact, and loneliness across 3 different stages of the pandemic (T1 = April to June 2020 -first lockdown, T2 = July to October 2020 -eased restrictions, T3 = November 2020 to March 2021 -second lockdown) using modified Poisson regression and meta-analyses to pool results across studies. We successively adjusted the model for sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, sex), job characteristics (e.g., sector of activity, pre-pandemic home working propensities), and pre-pandemic health. Among respectively 10,367, 11,585, and 12,179 participants at T1, T2, and T3, we found higher rates of home working at T1 and T3 compared with T2, reflecting lockdown periods. Home working was not associated with psychological distress at T1 (RR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.08) or T2 (RR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.11), but a detrimental association was found with psychological distress at T3 (RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.30). Study limitations include the fact that pre-pandemic home working propensities were derived from external sources, no information was collected on home working dosage and possible reverse association between change in wellbeing and home working likelihood. CONCLUSIONS: No clear evidence of an association between home working and mental wellbeing was found, apart from greater risk of psychological distress during the second lockdown, but differences across subgroups (e.g., by sex or level of education) may exist. Longer term shifts to home working might not have adverse impacts on population wellbeing in the absence of pandemic restrictions but further monitoring of health inequalities is required.

Changes in the adult consequences of adolescent mental ill-health: findings from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent mental health difficulties are increasing over time. However, it is not known whether their adulthood health and socio-economic sequelae are changing over time. METHODS: Participants (N = 31 349) are from two prospective national birth cohort studies: 1958 National Child Development Study (n = 16 091) and the 1970 British Cohort Study (n = 15 258). Adolescent mental health was operationalised both as traditional internalising and externalising factors and a hierarchical bi-factor. Associations between adolescent psychopathology and age 42 health and wellbeing (mental health, general health, life satisfaction), social (cohabitation, voting behaviour) and economic (education and employment) outcomes are estimated using linear and logistic multivariable regressions across cohorts, controlling for a wide range of early life potential confounding factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of adolescent mental health difficulties increased and their associations with midlife health, wellbeing, social and economic outcomes became more severe or remained similar between those born in 1958 and 1970. For instance, a stronger association with adolescent mental health difficulties was found for those born in 1970 for midlife psychological distress [odds ratio (OR) 1970 = 1.82 (1.65-1.99), OR 1958 = 1.60 (1.43-1.79)], cohabitation [OR 1970 = 0.64 (0.59-0.70), OR 1958 = 0.79 (0.72-0.87)], and professional occupations [OR 1970 = 0.75 (0.67-0.84), OR 1958 = 1.05 (0.88-1.24)]. The associations of externalising symptoms with later outcomes were mainly explained by their shared variance with internalising symptoms. CONCLUSION: The widening of mental health-based inequalities in midlife outcomes further supports the need to recognise that secular increases in adolescent mental health symptoms is a public health challenge with measurable negative consequences through the life-course. Increased public health efforts to minimise adverse outcomes are needed.

Generational, sex, and socioeconomic inequalities in mental and social wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic: prospective longitudinal observational study of five UK cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Research suggests that there have been inequalities in the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and related non-pharmaceutical interventions on population mental health. We explored generational, sex, and socioeconomic inequalities during the first year of the pandemic using nationally representative cohorts from the UK. METHODS: We analysed data from 26772 participants from five longitudinal cohorts representing generations born between 1946 and 2000, collected in May 2020, September-October 2020, and February-March 2021 across all five cohorts. We used a multilevel growth curve modelling approach to investigate generational, sex, and socioeconomic differences in levels of anxiety and depressive symptomatology, loneliness, and life satisfaction (LS) over time. RESULTS: Younger generations had worse levels of mental and social wellbeing throughout the first year of the pandemic. Whereas these generational inequalities narrowed between the first and last observation periods for LS [-0.33 (95% CI -0.51 to -0.15)], they became larger for anxiety [0.22 (0.10, 0.33)]. Generational inequalities in depression and loneliness did not change between the first and last observation periods, but initial depression levels of the youngest cohort were worse than expected if the generational inequalities had not accelerated. Women and those experiencing financial difficulties had worse initial mental and social wellbeing levels than men and those financially living comfortably, respectively, and these gaps did not substantially differ between the first and last observation periods. CONCLUSIONS: By March 2021, mental and social wellbeing inequalities persisted in the UK adult population. Pre-existing generational inequalities may have been exacerbated with the pandemic onset. Policies aimed at protecting vulnerable groups are needed.

Socioeconomic and sex inequalities in parent-reported adolescent mental ill-health: time trends in four British birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Studies using symptom-based screeners have suggested that mental ill-health has increased in adolescents in recent decades, however, few studies have tested the equivalence of their instruments, which is critical for inferring changes in prevalence. In addition, little research has explored whether socioeconomic position (SEP) and sex inequalities in adolescent mental health have changed over time. METHODS: Using structural equation modelling, we explored SEP and sex differences in harmonised parent reports of emotional and behavioural problems, using data from four UK birth cohorts: the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS'58; n = 10,868), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS'70; n = 8,242), the 1991-92 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC'91; n = 5,389), and the 2000-01 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS'01; n = 9,338). RESULTS: Compared with the two earliest cohorts, members of MCS'01 had higher latent mean scores on emotional problems (both sexes), and lower scores on behavioural problems (females only). The associations between four indicators of SEP and emotional problems were strongest in MCS'01, with housing tenure having the strongest association. All four SEP indicators were associated with behavioural problems in each cohort, with housing tenure again more strongly associated with problems in the MCS'01. Mediation analyses suggested that the increase in emotional problems occurred despite broadly improving socioeconomic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that parent reports of adolescent emotional problems, but not behavioural problems, have risen in recent generations and this trend is not solely due to reporting styles. A failure to address widening social inequalities may result in further increases in mental ill-health amongst disadvantaged young people.

Using linked administrative data to aid the handling of non-response and restore sample representativeness in cohort studies: the 1958 national child development study and hospital episode statistics data.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in whether linked administrative data have the potential to aid analyses subject to missing data in cohort studies. METHODS: Using linked 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; British cohort born in 1958, n = 18,558) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we applied a LASSO variable selection approach to identify HES variables which are predictive of non-response at the age 55 sweep of NCDS. We then included these variables as auxiliary variables in multiple imputation (MI) analyses to explore the extent to which they helped restore sample representativeness of the respondents together with the imputed non-respondents in terms of early life variables (father's social class at birth, cognitive ability at age 7) and relative to external population benchmarks (educational qualifications and marital status at age 55). RESULTS: We identified 10 HES variables that were predictive of non-response at age 55 in NCDS. For example, cohort members who had been treated for adult mental illness had more than 70% greater odds of bring non-respondents (odds ratio 1.73; 95% confidence interval 1.17, 2.51). Inclusion of these HES variables in MI analyses only helped to restore sample representativeness to a limited extent. Furthermore, there was essentially no additional gain in sample representativeness relative to analyses using only previously identified survey predictors of non-response (i.e. NCDS rather than HES variables). CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of HES variables only aided missing data handling in NCDS to a limited extent. However, these findings may not generalise to other analyses, cohorts or linked administrative datasets. This work provides a demonstration of the use of linked administrative data for the handling of missing cohort data which we hope will act as template for others.

Characterising patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms: evidence from nine UK longitudinal studies.

Multiple studies across global populations have established the primary symptoms characterising Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and long COVID. However, as symptoms may also occur in the absence of COVID-19, a lack of appropriate controls has often meant that specificity of symptoms to acute COVID-19 or long COVID, and the extent and length of time for which they are elevated after COVID-19, could not be examined. We analysed individual symptom prevalences and characterised patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms across nine UK longitudinal studies, totalling over 42,000 participants. Conducting latent class analyses separately in three groups ('no COVID-19', 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks', 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago'), the data did not support the presence of more than two distinct symptom patterns, representing high and low symptom burden, in each group. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of acute COVID-19, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue, cough, shortness of breath and muscle pains or aches. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of long COVID, including fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain or aches, difficulty concentrating and chest tightness. The identified symptom patterns among individuals with COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago were strongly associated with self-reported length of time unable to function as normal due to COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that the symptom pattern identified corresponds to long COVID. Building the evidence base regarding typical long COVID symptoms will improve diagnosis of this condition and the ability to elicit underlying biological mechanisms, leading to better patient access to treatment and services.

Social Health and Change in Cognitive Capability among Older Adults: Findings from Four European Longitudinal Studies.

INTRODUCTION: In this study, we examine whether social health markers measured at baseline are associated with differences in cognitive capability and the rate of cognitive decline over an 11-to-18-year period among older adults and compare results across studies. METHODS: We applied an integrated data analysis approach to 16,858 participants (mean age 65 years; 56% female) from the National Survey for Health and Development (NSHD), the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA), the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), and the Rotterdam Study. We used multilevel models to examine social health in relation to cognitive capability and the rate of cognitive decline. RESULTS: Pooled estimates show distinct relationships between markers of social health and cognitive domains, e.g., a large network size (≥6 people vs. none) was associated with higher executive function (0.17 standard deviation [SD] [95% CI: 0.00, 0.34], I2 = 27%) but not with memory (0.08 SD [95% CI: -0.02, 0.18], I2 = 19%). We also observed pooled associations between being married or cohabiting, having a large network size, and participating in social activities with slower decline in cognitive capability. However, estimates were close to zero, e.g., 0.01 SD/year (95% CI: 0.01, 0.02) I2 = 19% for marital status and executive function. There were clear study-specific differences: results for average processing speed were the most homogenous, and results for average memory were the most heterogeneous. CONCLUSION: Overall, markers of good social health have a positive association with cognitive capability. However, we found differential associations between specific markers of social health and cognitive domains and differences between studies. These findings highlight the importance of examining between-study differences and considering the context specificity of findings in developing and deploying interventions.

Experience of stigmatization in children receiving inpatient and outpatient mental health treatment: a longitudinal study.

Mental health-related stigma is poorly understood, and minimal research has focused on the experience of stigma from children's perspectives. We sought to investigate whether children treated as inpatients and outpatients had different experiences of stigma over time and whether stigma is linked to global functioning cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Children, aged 8-12 years, receiving treatment within a national specialist mental health inpatient unit were matched for age, gender and diagnosis with children receiving outpatient treatment (N = 64). Validated measures of stigma, global functioning and symptom severity were collected at the start of treatment and upon discharge from the ward for inpatients, and a similar timeframe for their individually matched outpatients. Latent change score models and partial correlation coefficients were employed to test our hypotheses. No differences in most aspects of stigma between children treated as inpatients and outpatients were observed, except for personal rejection at baseline and self-stigma at follow-up favouring outpatients. A reduction in stigma was observed in societal devaluation, personal rejection and secrecy for inpatients, and self-stigma and secrecy for outpatients between the two assessments. Societal devaluation declined at a higher rate among inpatients compared to outpatients, albeit reductions in stigma were comparable for all remaining measures. No association was found between the change in stigma and change in global functioning. Future research may offer further insights into the development and maintenance of stigma and identify key targets for anti-stigma interventions to reduce its long-term impact.

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and smoking, alcohol consumption and vaping during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys.

BACKGROUND: Employment disruptions can impact smoking and alcohol consumption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented furlough schemes to prevent job loss. We examine how furlough was associated with smoking, vaping and alcohol consumption in the UK. METHODS: Data from 27,841 participants in eight UK adult longitudinal surveys were analysed. Participants self-reported employment status and current smoking, current vaping and alcohol consumption (>4 days/week or 5+ drinks per typical occasion) both before and during the early stages of the pandemic (April-July 2020). Risk ratios were estimated within each study using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic behaviour. Findings were synthesised using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Compared to stable employment and after adjustment for pre-pandemic characteristics, furlough was not associated with smoking (ARR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.95-1.16; I2: 10%), vaping (ARR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.74-1.08; I2: 0%) or drinking (ARR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94-1.13; I2: 48%). There were similar findings for no longer being employed, and stable unemployment, though this varied by sex: stable unemployment was associated with smoking for women (ARR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.00-1.82; I2: 47%) but not men (0.84; 95% CI: 0.67-1.05; I2: 0%). No longer being employed was associated with vaping among women (ARR = 2.74; 95% CI: 1.59-4.72; I2: 0%) but not men (ARR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.83-1.87; I2: 0%). CONCLUSIONS: We found no clear evidence of furlough or unemployment having adverse impacts on smoking, vaping or drinking behaviours during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Differences in risk compared to those who remained employed were largely explained by pre-pandemic characteristics.

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, the UK implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) to minimise job losses. Our aim was to investigate associations between furlough and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We analysed data on 25,092 participants aged 16-66 years from eight UK longitudinal studies. Changes in employment, including being furloughed, were based on employment status before and during the first lockdown. Health behaviours included fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and sleep. Study-specific estimates obtained using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and pre-pandemic health and health behaviours, were statistically pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Associations were also stratified by sex, age, and education. RESULTS: Across studies, between 8 and 25% of participants were furloughed. Compared to those who remained working, furloughed workers were slightly less likely to be physically inactive (RR = 0.85; [95% CI 0.75-0.97]; I 2 = 59%) and did not differ overall with respect to low fruit and vegetable consumption or atypical sleep, although findings for sleep were heterogenous (I 2 = 85%). In stratified analyses, furlough was associated with lower fruit and vegetable consumption among males (RR = 1.11; [1.01-1.22]; I 2 = 0%) but not females (RR = 0.84; [0.68-1.04]; I 2 = 65%). Considering changes in quantity, furloughed workers were more likely than those who remained working to report increases in fruit and vegetable consumption, exercise, and hours of sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Those furloughed exhibited similar health behaviours to those who remained in employment during the initial stages of the pandemic. There was little evidence to suggest that adoption of such social protection policies in the post-pandemic recovery period and during future economic crises had adverse effects on population health behaviours.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first trimester and the risk of early miscarriage: a UK population-based prospective cohort study of 3041 pregnancies conceived during the pandemic.

STUDY QUESTION: Does maternal infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the first trimester affect the risk of miscarriage before 13 week's gestation? SUMMARY ANSWER: Pregnant women with self-reported diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 in the first trimester had a higher risk of early miscarriage. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Viral infections during pregnancy have a broad spectrum of placental and neonatal pathology. Data on the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy are still emerging. Two systematic reviews and meta-analyses reported an increased risk of preterm birth, caesarean delivery, maternal morbidity and stillbirth. Data on the impact of first trimester infection on early pregnancy outcomes are scarce. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to investigate the rates of early pregnancy loss during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak among women with self-reported infection. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a nationwide prospective cohort study of pregnant women in the community recruited using social media between 21 May and 31 December 2020. We recruited 3545 women who conceived during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic who were <13 week's gestation at the time of recruitment. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The COVID-19 Contraception and Pregnancy Study (CAP-COVID) was an on-line survey study collecting longitudinal data from pregnant women in the UK aged 18 years or older. Women who were pregnant during the pandemic were asked to complete on-line surveys at the end of each trimester. We collected data on current and past pregnancy complications, their medical history and whether they or anyone in their household had symptoms or been diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection during each trimester of their pregnancy. RT-PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from respiratory samples (e.g. nasopharynx) is the standard practice for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. We compared rate of self-reported miscarriage in three groups: 'presumed infected', i.e. those who reported a diagnosis with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first trimester; 'uncertain', i.e. those who did not report a diagnosis but had symptoms/household contacts with symptoms/diagnosis; and 'presumed uninfected', i.e. those who did not report any symptoms/diagnosis and had no household contacts with symptoms/diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 3545 women registered for the CAP-COVID study at <13 weeks gestation and were eligible for this analysis. Data for the primary outcome were available from 3041 women (86%). In the overall sample, the rate of self-reported miscarriage was 7.8% (238/3041 [95% CI, 7-9]). The median gestational age (GA) at miscarriage was 9 weeks (interquartile range 8-11). Seventy-seven women were in the 'presumed infected' group (77/3041, 2.5% [95% CI 2-3]), 295/3041 were in the uncertain group (9.7% [95% CI 9-11]) and the rest in the 'presumed uninfected' (87.8%, 2669/3041 [95% CI 87-89]). The rate of early miscarriage was 14% in the 'presumed infected' group, 5% in the 'uncertain' and 8% in the 'presumed uninfected' (11/77 [95% CI 6-22] versus 15/295 [95% CI 3-8] versus 212/2669 [95% CI 7-9], P = 0.02). After adjusting for age, BMI, ethnicity, smoking status, GA at registration and the number of previous miscarriages, the risk of early miscarriage appears to be higher in the 'presumed infected' group (relative rate 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.0, P = 0.06). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We relied on self-reported data on early pregnancy loss and SARS-CoV-2 infection without any means of checking validity. Some women in the 'presumed uninfected' and 'uncertain' groups may have had asymptomatic infections. The number of 'presumed infected' in our study was low and therefore the study was relatively underpowered. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This was a national study from the UK, where infection rates were one of the highest in the world. Based on the evidence presented here, women who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 in their first trimester may be at an increased risk of a miscarriage. However, the overall rate of miscarriage in our study population was 8%. This is reassuring and suggests that if there is an effect of SARS-CoV-2 on the risk of miscarriage, this may be limited to those with symptoms substantial enough to lead to a diagnostic test. Further studies are warranted to evaluate a causal association between SARS-CoV-2 infection in early pregnancy and miscarriage risk. Although we did not see an overall increase in the risk of miscarriage, the observed comparative increase in the presumed infected group reinforces the message that pregnant women should continue to exercise social distancing measures and good hygiene throughout their pregnancy to limit their risk of infection. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was supported by a grant from the Elizabeth Garrett Anderson Hospital Charity (G13-559194). The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation or writing of the report. J.A.H. is supported by an NIHR Advanced Fellowship. A.L.D. is supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf and declare: support to J.A.H. and A.L.D. as above; no financial relationships with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous 3 years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Pre-pandemic mental health and disruptions to healthcare, economic and housing outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from 12 UK longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives and livelihoods, and people already experiencing mental ill health may have been especially vulnerable. AIMS: Quantify mental health inequalities in disruptions to healthcare, economic activity and housing. METHOD: We examined data from 59 482 participants in 12 UK longitudinal studies with data collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Within each study, we estimated the association between psychological distress assessed pre-pandemic and disruptions since the start of the pandemic to healthcare (medication access, procedures or appointments), economic activity (employment, income or working hours) and housing (change of address or household composition). Estimates were pooled across studies. RESULTS: Across the analysed data-sets, 28% to 77% of participants experienced at least one disruption, with 2.3-33.2% experiencing disruptions in two or more domains. We found 1 s.d. higher pre-pandemic psychological distress was associated with (a) increased odds of any healthcare disruptions (odds ratio (OR) 1.30, 95% CI 1.20-1.40), with fully adjusted odds ratios ranging from 1.24 (95% CI 1.09-1.41) for disruption to procedures to 1.33 (95% CI 1.20-1.49) for disruptions to prescriptions or medication access; (b) loss of employment (odds ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21) and income (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 -1.19), and reductions in working hours/furlough (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.09) and (c) increased likelihood of experiencing a disruption in at least two domains (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.18-1.32) or in one domain (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.16), relative to no disruption. There were no associations with housing disruptions (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: People experiencing psychological distress pre-pandemic were more likely to experience healthcare and economic disruptions, and clusters of disruptions across multiple domains during the pandemic. Failing to address these disruptions risks further widening mental health inequalities.

Psychological distress from early adulthood to early old age: evidence from the 1946, 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing evidence on profiles of psychological distress across adulthood uses cross-sectional or longitudinal studies with short observation periods. The objective of this research was to study the profile of psychological distress within the same individuals from early adulthood to early old age across three British birth cohorts. METHODS: We used data from three British birth cohorts: born in 1946 (n = 3093), 1958 (n = 13 250) and 1970 (n = 12 019). The profile of psychological distress - expressed both as probability of being a clinical case or a count of symptoms based on comparable items within and across cohorts - was modelled using the multilevel regression framework. RESULTS: In both 1958 and 1970 cohorts, there was an initial drop in the probability of being a case between ages 23-26 and 33-34. Subsequently, the predicted probability of being a case increased from 12.5% at age 36 to 19.5% at age 53 in the 1946 cohort; from 8.0% at age 33 to 13.7% at age 42 in the 1958 cohort and from 15.7% at age 34 to 19.7% at age 42 in the 1970 cohort. In the 1946 cohort, there was a drop in the probability of caseness between ages 60-64 and 69 (19.5% v. 15.2%). Consistent results were obtained with the continuous version of the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Across three post-war British birth cohorts midlife appears to be a particularly vulnerable phase for experiencing psychological distress. Understanding the reasons for this will be important for the prevention and management of mental health problems.

Distinct Body Mass Index Trajectories to Young-Adulthood Obesity and Their Different Cardiometabolic Consequences.

[Figure: see text].